Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 22 February 2009 at 22:07:28 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 February 2009, Fulham vs West_Brom; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         26   62  +35      88.72     4.14    50.06    90.26    98.14    99.86   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       26   55  +25      79.42     4.41    37.46     6.44    54.48    89.97    98.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   52  +30      78.03     4.37    44.37     3.13    42.33    87.41    98.57   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   51  +15      71.73     4.67    21.82     0.17     4.84    20.62    82.14    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         26   45  +13      64.83     4.65    18.48     0.00     0.20     1.95    16.42    95.75     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   41   +6      60.11     4.88    10.15     0.00     0.00     0.19     3.77    76.09     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           26   35   +2      52.19     4.78     3.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    12.15     0.02R    0.00  
Fulham          25   33   +2      49.78     4.94     1.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     5.87     0.16R    0.00  
West_Ham        26   33   -2      48.96     4.79    -2.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.88     0.32R    0.01  
Man_City        26   32   +8      49.12     4.70     9.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.80     0.22R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   31   -6      44.10     4.64   -10.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.40     3.25R    0.15  
Bolton          26   30   -9      45.76     4.87   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.77     2.24R    0.12  
Hull            25   29  -15      43.96     4.97   -19.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     6.61R    0.52  
Newcastle       26   28   -9      40.67     4.57   -15.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    14.83R    1.42  
Portsmouth      26   28  -14      41.30     4.70   -19.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    13.63R    1.62  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.05     4.89    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    18.26R    2.89  
Stoke           26   25  -19      37.84     4.66   -24.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    37.08R    8.05  
Blackburn       25   23  -14      36.50     4.85   -21.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.75R   11.90  
Middlesbrough   26   23  -18      33.26     4.28   -26.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.34R   28.92  
West_Brom       26   22  -25      32.42     4.49   -35.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.29R   44.39  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 22 February 2009, Wolverhampton vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    34   64  +21      86.76     4.68    31.53    37.12    73.58    99.77    80.19P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       33   60  +11      80.72     5.01    15.28     6.63    20.59    93.00    37.41P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          32   59  +30      87.21     5.05    43.89    47.44    77.75    99.70    85.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     34   53   +7      70.54     4.82     8.76     0.04     0.35    30.11     6.53P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          34   53   +3      70.58     4.84     4.78     0.04     0.26    28.70     5.31P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          30   52  +15      80.76     5.81    24.98     8.33    24.52    90.64    43.93P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        33   52  +14      72.36     4.94    17.81     0.17     1.16    47.38    13.72P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          34   52   +1      69.26     4.86     2.18     0.01     0.11    20.80     3.63P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          33   51  +13      73.19     5.03    19.83     0.20     1.44    55.35    15.35P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          34   50  +11      67.83     4.73    13.01     0.01     0.12    15.91     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              32   47   +2      66.35     5.27     2.46     0.00     0.08    10.59     2.37P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Wed        34   45   -9      57.82     4.69   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.39R    0.00  
Coventry         33   44   -2      61.48     5.02    -2.35     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.24P    0.09R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   31   43   +5      63.61     5.68     5.14     0.00     0.04     5.83     1.35P    0.04R    0.00  
Derby            32   41   -3      58.78     5.32    -5.29     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.13P    0.60R    0.02  
Doncaster        33   40  -11      53.52     4.73   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    4.51R    0.13  
Blackpool        34   38  -14      51.96     4.65   -17.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.52R    0.63  
Watford          32   36   -7      56.04     5.36    -5.95     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    2.83R    0.17  
Barnsley         32   36  -11      50.36     4.96   -17.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.49R    1.15  
Plymouth         34   36  -13      48.74     4.54   -18.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.04R    1.81  
Nottm_Forest     34   34  -14      46.44     4.55   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.18R    5.60  
Norwich          34   33   -9      47.20     4.70   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.22R    4.36  
Southampton      33   31  -19      43.93     4.77   -26.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.26R   18.74  
Charlton         33   26  -21      38.54     4.68   -30.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.83R   67.40  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        33   73  +36      99.26     4.75    49.54    88.38    99.25   100.00    99.53P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          31   61  +28      89.71     5.48    41.22    10.99    78.84    99.63    85.70P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     32   57  +16      80.76     5.35    23.67     0.30     9.04    88.31    30.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           32   54  +12      77.23     5.36    18.29     0.02     3.17    71.06    20.41P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       30   53  +12      78.86     5.84    18.28     0.24     6.56    77.60    22.64P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         30   52   +6      75.51     5.94     8.28     0.07     2.28    55.10    13.40P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        32   51  +13      72.97     5.31    17.15     0.00     0.38    41.00    11.41P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            32   51  +12      72.22     5.40    14.92     0.01     0.39    35.70     9.56P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         32   49   +6      69.58     5.38     8.05     0.00     0.07    18.21     4.17P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     32   47   -4      65.40     5.26    -5.48     0.00     0.01     4.49     0.84P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall          32   43   -1      63.30     5.31     0.67     0.00     0.01     2.40     0.53P    0.16R    0.00  
Colchester       31   42   +0      62.36     5.56    -0.42     0.00     0.00     2.19     0.48P    0.50R    0.00  
Southend         31   40  -11      57.01     5.46   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    4.93R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers   30   39   +7      62.80     6.02     9.54     0.00     0.01     3.80     1.00P    0.52R    0.00  
Yeovil           31   37  -12      54.99     5.49   -15.61     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   10.45R    0.08  
Hartlepool       32   36   -7      53.86     5.47    -9.57     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   12.27R    0.14  
Carlisle         31   36   -8      55.63     5.61    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    8.04R    0.06  
Northampton      30   33   -2      54.16     5.90    -3.38     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.03P   12.53R    0.18  
Swindon          30   33   -6      55.68     5.84    -5.16     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    8.67R    0.08  
Leyton_Orient    32   33  -14      48.48     5.09   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.35R    1.06  
Brighton         30   31  -11      49.67     5.68   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   37.57R    0.84  
Crewe            30   28  -23      43.93     5.48   -34.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.23R    9.56  
Hereford         30   27  -17      43.31     5.50   -25.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.85R    8.38  
Cheltenham       30   21  -32      34.61     5.26   -48.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    98.92R   79.60  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Dag_&_Red; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            32   59  +21      83.57     5.10    29.17    27.71    70.95    97.85    78.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   56  +17      84.78     5.53    27.12    35.78    76.17    98.11    82.35P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 32   56  +15      79.35     5.17    21.67     7.37    37.69    89.44    49.83P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           33   52  +18      73.62     4.97    23.83     0.67     8.51    60.19    23.37P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             31   52  +16      74.95     5.52    20.01     2.28    15.19    66.32    25.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             32   52  +14      74.79     5.28    19.85     1.41    12.48    66.47    24.68P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           29   51  +20      82.03     5.96    31.90    22.91    60.88    94.07    70.44P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               32   51   +9      69.81     5.20     8.74     0.17     2.22    27.49     7.32P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           32   50   +1      67.13     5.24    -2.24     0.03     0.67    13.16     2.58P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            31   47  +21      74.62     5.50    32.54     1.62    14.38    67.68    30.22P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   41   +4      64.16     5.78     6.13     0.01     0.28     7.48     1.89P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         29   40   +5      64.81     6.02     7.62     0.03     0.57    10.15     2.45P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            32   40   -4      57.08     5.09    -6.91     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            30   37  -11      55.35     5.52   -18.06     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         32   36  -11      51.95     4.99   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Macclesfield         31   33  -25      47.59     5.12   -36.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.05R    0.07  
Port_Vale            30   31  -17      46.01     5.39   -28.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.38R    0.17  
Accrington_Stanley   31   29  -14      46.67     5.42   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.59R    0.14  
Rotherham            27   28   +8      57.16     6.60    12.92     0.00     0.02     1.24     0.35P    0.03R    0.00  
Barnet               31   26  -22      41.30     5.27   -31.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.20R    1.92  
Chester              33   26  -27      38.13     4.65   -36.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.20R    4.42  
Grimsby              31   23  -23      39.13     5.34   -30.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.66R    4.18  
Bournemouth          31   18   -8      37.25     5.50   -10.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.59R    7.22  
Luton                30    5   -7      26.45     5.86    -7.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.22R   81.87  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 21 February 2009, Altrincham vs Woking; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        32   74  +29      98.79     5.36    37.71    90.63    99.98    92.93P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               29   56  +19      85.12     6.11    28.19     5.25    86.20    25.14P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        32   56  +15      80.23     5.27    22.46     0.54    64.68    17.33P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           33   55  +10      73.12     5.08    10.42     0.01    14.96     2.90P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            32   53  +11      74.35     5.47    14.19     0.02    23.52     4.56P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              29   52  +21      83.32     6.10    34.06     2.42    81.46    24.68P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              30   52  +15      78.61     5.92    22.03     0.61    52.92    13.38P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        30   49   +8      72.84     5.96    10.65     0.02    17.04     3.67P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         30   47  +13      70.53     5.90    15.57     0.01    11.06     2.58P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            27   46   +9      77.63     6.50    17.22     0.48    44.98    11.99P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    32   43  +13      67.31     5.26    20.64     0.00     2.53     0.74P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   31   43   -6      62.77     5.66    -7.62     0.00     0.36     0.05P    0.04R    0.00  
Altrincham           31   43  -11      60.77     5.46   -14.92     0.00     0.13     0.01P    0.08R    0.00  
Weymouth             32   42   -9      59.50     5.30   -12.33     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.14R    0.00  
Mansfield            32   41   +1      61.56     5.23     3.03     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.02R    0.00  
Salisbury            32   36  -14      49.57     5.05   -23.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.03R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.35     5.82    -7.16     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.77R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.59     5.73     0.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.68R    0.00  
Forest_Green         30   32  -10      50.93     5.61   -15.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.17R    0.00  
Woking               33   32  -12      45.23     4.76   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.24R    0.01  
Barrow               30   32  -13      49.38     5.50   -20.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.93R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       29   30  -12      46.79     5.60   -21.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.55R    0.02  
Northwich            31   19  -25      34.31     5.22   -33.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.36R    7.21  
Lewes                32   17  -43      24.80     3.93   -61.39     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   92.75  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4