Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 20 February 2009 at 22:06:25 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 February 2009, Man_Utd vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         25   59  +34      88.81     4.23    52.00    87.54    97.97    99.77   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.86     4.63    39.37    10.21    67.42    92.11    99.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.93     4.88    22.71     0.48     8.09    30.59    81.56    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.57     4.70    43.73     1.75    26.01    73.26    94.74    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.11     4.89    19.89     0.01     0.48     3.78    20.01    96.05     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      61.04     5.15    10.98     0.00     0.03     0.48     4.54    76.76     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.07     5.06     4.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11    13.77     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.55     5.11    -1.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.99     0.18R    0.00  
Man_City        25   31   +8      48.50     4.92     7.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.27     0.41R    0.02  
Fulham          24   30   +0      48.43     5.23    -0.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.19     0.68R    0.04  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.50     4.83   -12.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     5.15R    0.29  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.16     4.95   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     5.94R    0.52  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.74     4.80   -16.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    15.61R    1.95  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.93     5.15   -11.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32     5.81R    0.58  
Portsmouth      25   27  -14      41.56     4.98   -19.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    14.54R    2.16  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.08     4.87    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    18.04R    3.11  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.11     4.99   -24.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    36.16R    8.77  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.31     4.87   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.61R   14.05  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.09     4.48   -27.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.33R   33.61  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.52     4.73   -33.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.52R   34.91  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 February 2009, Derby vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    33   63  +21      87.45     4.91    32.05    27.25    68.65    99.73    76.47P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   60  +12      82.44     5.29    16.83     7.26    23.51    95.36    41.21P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.21     5.18    48.60    59.81    85.78    99.88    91.33P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          33   53   +5      72.70     5.08     7.90     0.04     0.55    44.80     8.92P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      80.80     6.13    24.53     5.42    19.54    89.28    40.18P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      73.11     5.18    18.37     0.15     1.09    51.91    14.97P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   51   +1      69.62     5.16     2.09     0.01     0.12    22.64     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     33   50   +5      67.31     5.01     4.33     0.00     0.04    12.71     2.57P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          32   48  +11      71.90     5.19    18.22     0.03     0.43    43.26    11.21P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          33   47   +9      65.45     4.90     9.93     0.00     0.02     7.45     1.71P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.65     5.49     5.85     0.02     0.16    20.16     4.59P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   43   +7      65.72     5.92     8.22     0.01     0.10    11.75     2.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        33   42  -11      55.66     4.87   -17.30     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.99R    0.03  
Coventry         32   41   -3      59.24     5.24    -4.16     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.10P    0.41R    0.00  
Doncaster        32   40   -9      54.43     4.92   -15.10     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    3.36R    0.03  
Derby            31   38   -5      56.61     5.55    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    2.20R    0.06  
Blackpool        33   38  -12      53.86     4.95   -15.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.89R    0.22  
Barnsley         31   35  -11      51.17     5.28   -17.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.34R    0.96  
Plymouth         33   35  -13      48.41     4.69   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.21R    1.72  
Nottm_Forest     33   34  -12      48.55     4.91   -17.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.26R    2.08  
Watford          31   33   -9      54.09     5.60    -8.51     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.90R    0.42  
Norwich          33   32   -9      47.76     5.00   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.12R    3.22  
Southampton      32   28  -21      41.11     4.90   -30.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.21R   32.99  
Charlton         32   25  -21      38.51     4.93   -31.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.11R   58.27  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 February 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        32   70  +35      97.91     5.07    49.05    81.07    97.73    99.99    98.54P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   60  +28      90.29     5.70    41.62    16.97    76.22    99.48    83.77P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     31   54  +15      79.34     5.61    22.91     0.33     5.44    80.19    24.35P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   53  +14      81.24     6.10    21.98     1.12    11.60    85.36    29.96P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   53  +12      78.20     5.62    19.18     0.12     3.70    73.48    21.78P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         29   52   +7      78.14     6.17    11.13     0.37     4.65    69.66    18.61P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        31   48  +12      71.12     5.56    15.74     0.01     0.17    26.29     7.11P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            31   48  +10      71.46     5.64    14.53     0.01     0.30    28.64     7.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         31   48   +6      69.45     5.65     7.32     0.01     0.11    16.54     3.89P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     31   47   -2      67.61     5.53    -2.09     0.00     0.05     8.88     1.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       30   42   +1      64.58     5.80     1.84     0.00     0.01     4.52     0.91P    0.14R    0.00  
Walsall          31   40   -3      60.93     5.48    -2.62     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.15P    0.52R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   39   +8      63.99     6.23    10.25     0.00     0.03     5.39     1.43P    0.24R    0.00  
Southend         30   37  -12      54.33     5.63   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    9.52R    0.09  
Hartlepool       31   36   -6      56.12     5.75    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    5.03R    0.05  
Carlisle         30   36   -7      57.02     5.89    -8.87     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.05P    4.08R    0.03  
Yeovil           30   36  -12      54.79     5.75   -16.30     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    8.38R    0.08  
Northampton      29   33   +0      56.61     6.13     0.30     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    4.65R    0.05  
Swindon          29   30   -8      53.26     6.15    -8.51     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.78R    0.33  
Leyton_Orient    31   30  -15      45.79     5.27   -20.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.19R    3.21  
Brighton         29   28  -12      47.21     5.83   -18.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.92R    2.46  
Hereford         29   27  -16      44.60     5.80   -24.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.32R    5.98  
Crewe            29   25  -25      41.46     5.70   -38.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.53R   18.11  
Cheltenham       29   21  -30      35.21     5.43   -48.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.69R   69.60  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 20 February 2009, Chesterfield vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            31   56  +20      81.59     5.38    27.67    18.19    53.75    92.56    64.48P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   56  +17      84.73     5.57    26.99    37.37    73.50    97.20    79.91P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   53  +13      78.02     5.44    20.10     5.45    27.02    79.52    38.48P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   52  +20      75.97     5.20    27.25     2.56    17.57    70.67    33.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             30   52  +17      76.69     5.73    21.63     5.12    22.47    71.09    32.63P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             31   52  +17      77.79     5.55    25.29     5.59    27.65    79.00    40.19P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               31   50   +9      70.74     5.50     9.56     0.36     3.31    28.86     8.13P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           28   48  +19      81.69     6.09    33.12    22.49    56.32    91.39    66.19P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           31   47   -1      66.01     5.47    -3.31     0.04     0.46     8.27     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            30   46  +21      75.25     5.78    33.03     2.79    17.16    65.92    30.62P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         30   41   +4      64.09     5.76     6.00     0.01     0.22     5.59     1.32P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         29   40   +5      64.86     6.09     7.75     0.05     0.56     8.39     2.24P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            31   37   -6      54.56     5.34   -10.47     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            29   37   -9      57.77     5.83   -14.22     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         31   36   -9      52.90     5.22   -14.60     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         30   33  -23      48.54     5.33   -34.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.58R    0.01  
Port_Vale            30   31  -17      46.01     5.40   -28.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.68R    0.09  
Rotherham            27   28   +8      57.36     6.59    13.21     0.00     0.02     1.04     0.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   28  -14      46.55     5.69   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.45R    0.10  
Chester              32   25  -27      38.09     4.92   -36.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.85R    2.36  
Grimsby              30   23  -22      39.41     5.47   -31.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.12R    2.06  
Barnet               30   23  -25      38.16     5.38   -36.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.53R    3.24  
Bournemouth          31   18   -8      37.19     5.54   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.89R    4.21  
Luton                29    2   -9      23.77     6.08   -11.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.85R   87.94  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 February 2009, Forest_Green vs Northwich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        32   74  +29      98.36     5.37    37.10    86.33    99.96    89.73P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               28   55  +19      86.97     6.29    30.45     9.40    90.48    30.34P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        31   53  +13      79.33     5.46    21.58     0.40    57.68    14.95P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            32   53  +11      74.12     5.43    13.87     0.04    21.71     3.94P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              29   52  +21      83.05     6.03    33.68     2.22    80.03    23.62P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              29   52  +16      80.22     6.09    23.40     1.21    62.83    16.17P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   52   +9      71.65     5.38     9.63     0.01    10.28     2.03P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        30   49   +8      72.52     5.92    10.15     0.04    15.30     3.13P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.27     6.08    22.37     0.06    26.90     6.94P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            26   43   +8      75.62     6.72    15.69     0.30    33.24     8.84P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             31   42   +0      63.18     5.57     0.59     0.00     0.41     0.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.16     5.80    -9.32     0.00     0.35     0.06P    0.08R    0.00  
Mansfield            31   41   +2      63.01     5.50     4.20     0.00     0.40     0.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      62.84     5.46     7.42     0.00     0.36     0.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham           30   40  -12      58.73     5.59   -16.63     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.32R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.35     5.78    -7.16     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.89R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.49     5.70     0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.49R    0.00  
Salisbury            31   33  -17      46.26     5.07   -29.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.24R    0.02  
Forest_Green         30   32  -10      50.86     5.57   -15.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.50R    0.01  
Woking               32   32  -11      46.94     5.12   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.62R    0.01  
Barrow               29   31  -13      49.51     5.67   -21.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.30R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       28   29  -12      47.24     5.88   -21.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.20R    0.03  
Northwich            31   19  -25      35.04     5.29   -32.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.35R    7.63  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.45     4.15   -60.24     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   92.28  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4