Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 19 February 2009 at 22:06:20 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 February 2009, Man_Utd vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         25   59  +34      88.70     4.24    51.86    86.88    97.78    99.75    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.97     4.63    39.45    10.80    68.34    92.24    98.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.97     4.91    22.75     0.47     7.96    30.78    81.29    99.81     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.55     4.73    43.74     1.84    25.38    72.89    94.54    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.26     4.88    20.10     0.01     0.51     3.87    20.78    96.27     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      61.00     5.16    10.93     0.00     0.02     0.47     4.29    76.58     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.07     5.07     4.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    13.83     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.51     5.12    -1.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     6.15     0.17R    0.00  
Man_City        25   31   +8      48.54     4.90     7.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.36     0.37R    0.01  
Fulham          24   30   +0      48.30     5.18    -0.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     2.93     0.68R    0.05  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.45     4.88   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     5.33R    0.38  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.19     4.95   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     6.09R    0.48  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.74     4.80   -16.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    15.56R    2.02  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.93     5.17   -11.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     5.86R    0.63  
Portsmouth      25   27  -14      41.62     5.00   -19.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    14.21R    2.13  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.11     4.89    -9.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    17.98R    2.99  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.28     4.98   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    34.47R    8.37  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.27     4.89   -23.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    49.32R   14.13  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.03     4.49   -27.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.95R   34.05  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.47     4.67   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.00R   34.77  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 February 2009, Derby vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    33   63  +21      87.37     4.94    31.95    27.35    68.34    99.68    76.50P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   60  +12      82.50     5.25    16.88     7.36    23.94    95.53    41.41P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.11     5.21    48.45    59.43    85.39    99.88    90.85P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          33   53   +5      72.74     5.05     7.91     0.06     0.58    44.96     8.67P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      80.93     6.02    24.65     5.58    19.82    89.95    40.80P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      72.98     5.21    18.21     0.14     1.06    51.01    14.80P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   51   +1      69.67     5.21     2.16     0.01     0.12    23.25     3.79P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     33   50   +5      67.40     4.97     4.46     0.01     0.04    12.60     2.55P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          32   48  +11      71.94     5.22    18.26     0.03     0.40    43.49    11.35P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          33   47   +9      65.51     4.91    10.04     0.00     0.02     7.60     1.79P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.55     5.51     5.70     0.02     0.17    19.92     4.65P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   43   +7      65.57     5.94     8.03     0.02     0.11    11.10     2.65P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        33   42  -11      55.62     4.84   -17.35     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.00P    2.06R    0.03  
Coventry         32   41   -3      59.32     5.24    -4.05     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.12P    0.46R    0.01  
Doncaster        32   40   -9      54.39     4.89   -15.10     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    3.43R    0.08  
Derby            31   38   -5      56.56     5.53    -8.09     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    2.20R    0.09  
Blackpool        33   38  -12      53.95     4.92   -14.86     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.44R    0.20  
Barnsley         31   35  -11      51.35     5.27   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.29R    0.98  
Plymouth         33   35  -13      48.43     4.69   -19.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.66R    1.76  
Nottm_Forest     33   34  -12      48.40     4.89   -17.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.56R    2.18  
Watford          31   33   -9      53.94     5.63    -8.76     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    7.35R    0.43  
Norwich          33   32   -9      47.76     4.96   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.27R    3.07  
Southampton      32   28  -21      41.22     4.89   -30.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.97R   32.59  
Charlton         32   25  -21      38.51     4.87   -31.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.30R   58.59  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 February 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        32   70  +35      97.82     5.09    48.91    80.55    97.68   100.00    98.49P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   60  +28      90.33     5.68    41.68    17.45    76.48    99.53    83.93P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     31   54  +15      79.44     5.61    23.11     0.35     5.63    80.76    25.07P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   53  +14      81.17     6.14    21.85     1.18    11.40    85.11    30.01P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   53  +12      78.08     5.64    18.98     0.14     3.71    72.80    21.32P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         29   52   +7      78.06     6.13    10.95     0.31     4.51    69.68    18.40P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        31   48  +12      71.04     5.57    15.66     0.00     0.18    26.03     7.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds            31   48  +10      71.41     5.59    14.45     0.01     0.26    28.46     7.29P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   48   +6      69.53     5.62     7.35     0.00     0.10    17.00     3.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     31   47   -2      67.59     5.52    -2.11     0.00     0.04     8.95     1.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       30   42   +1      64.74     5.78     2.08     0.00     0.00     4.79     0.99P    0.12R    0.00  
Walsall          31   40   -3      60.88     5.47    -2.65     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.15P    0.54R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   39   +8      64.00     6.26    10.27     0.00     0.01     5.24     1.38P    0.23R    0.00  
Southend         30   37  -12      54.40     5.68   -19.22     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    9.40R    0.08  
Hartlepool       31   36   -6      56.21     5.72    -7.05     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    4.70R    0.04  
Carlisle         30   36   -7      57.11     5.85    -8.77     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.06P    3.81R    0.02  
Yeovil           30   36  -12      54.88     5.72   -16.14     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    7.97R    0.08  
Northampton      29   33   +0      56.51     6.16     0.11     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.07P    5.00R    0.05  
Swindon          29   30   -8      53.25     6.12    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   13.39R    0.37  
Leyton_Orient    31   30  -15      45.78     5.26   -20.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.39R    3.31  
Brighton         29   28  -12      47.10     5.85   -18.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.80R    2.52  
Hereford         29   27  -16      44.53     5.76   -24.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.72R    6.17  
Crewe            29   25  -25      41.45     5.69   -38.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.37R   18.60  
Cheltenham       29   21  -30      35.34     5.44   -48.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.56R   68.76  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 February 2009, Bradford vs Darlington; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            31   56  +20      81.69     5.36    27.81    18.48    54.43    93.35    65.16P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   56  +17      84.77     5.53    27.10    37.27    73.72    97.62    80.29P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   53  +13      77.98     5.40    20.06     5.34    26.57    79.96    38.01P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   52  +20      75.96     5.21    27.20     2.59    17.38    71.02    33.39P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             30   52  +17      76.65     5.74    21.61     4.90    22.50    71.58    32.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             31   52  +17      77.77     5.55    25.25     5.55    27.46    79.37    40.17P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               31   50   +9      70.60     5.46     9.33     0.35     3.15    28.26     7.83P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           28   48  +19      81.70     6.14    33.11    22.65    56.48    91.48    66.43P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           31   47   -1      66.08     5.46    -3.21     0.03     0.52     8.60     1.76P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            30   46  +21      75.29     5.76    33.07     2.80    17.22    66.52    31.09P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   38   +3      62.38     6.04     4.84     0.01     0.12     3.87     0.92P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         28   37   +4      63.72     6.28     7.47     0.02     0.42     6.79     1.69P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            31   37   -6      54.62     5.34   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot            29   37   -9      57.78     5.84   -14.22     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.07P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         31   36   -9      52.95     5.20   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         30   33  -23      48.53     5.34   -34.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.68R    0.02  
Port_Vale            29   31  -16      47.52     5.74   -27.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.07R    0.06  
Rotherham            27   28   +8      57.27     6.63    13.07     0.00     0.02     1.04     0.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   28  -14      46.71     5.70   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.30R    0.08  
Chester              32   25  -27      38.00     4.85   -37.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.80R    2.40  
Grimsby              30   23  -22      39.36     5.42   -31.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.07R    2.18  
Barnet               30   23  -25      38.19     5.40   -36.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.59R    3.45  
Bournemouth          30   18   -7      38.11     5.79   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.37R    3.36  
Luton                29    2   -9      23.75     6.10   -11.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.06R   88.46  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 February 2009, Forest_Green vs Northwich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        32   74  +29      98.34     5.31    37.04    86.69    99.98    89.83P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               28   55  +19      86.84     6.27    30.25     8.92    90.31    30.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        31   53  +13      79.24     5.43    21.43     0.32    56.85    14.39P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            32   53  +11      74.17     5.43    13.91     0.02    21.94     4.08P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              29   52  +21      83.08     6.12    33.71     2.36    79.44    23.85P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              29   52  +16      80.31     6.16    23.57     1.31    63.06    16.69P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   52   +9      71.74     5.36     9.79     0.01    10.62     1.97P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        30   49   +8      72.60     5.95    10.24     0.03    15.51     3.14P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.23     6.06    22.29     0.07    26.78     6.93P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            26   43   +8      75.69     6.76    15.85     0.27    33.91     8.79P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             31   42   +0      63.19     5.58     0.64     0.00     0.42     0.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      61.96     5.75    -9.64     0.00     0.34     0.03P    0.07R    0.00  
Mansfield            31   41   +2      62.90     5.48     4.02     0.00     0.39     0.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      63.00     5.48     7.68     0.00     0.36     0.07P    0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           30   40  -12      58.89     5.66   -16.39     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.34R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.30     5.76    -7.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.80R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.43     5.78    -0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.58R    0.00  
Salisbury            31   33  -17      46.41     5.14   -28.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.44R    0.02  
Forest_Green         30   32  -10      50.88     5.56   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.52R    0.00  
Woking               32   32  -11      46.83     5.12   -16.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.20R    0.01  
Barrow               29   31  -13      49.67     5.68   -20.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.77R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       28   29  -12      47.17     5.88   -21.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.38R    0.02  
Northwich            31   19  -25      34.87     5.25   -33.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.88R    7.86  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.42     4.15   -60.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   92.07  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4