Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 18 February 2009 at 22:08:01 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 February 2009, Man_Utd vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         25   59  +34      88.72     4.25    51.88    86.89    97.89    99.77    99.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.91     4.66    39.42    10.83    67.76    92.05    98.92   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.92     4.91    22.68     0.48     7.92    30.73    81.17    99.79     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.55     4.72    43.76     1.79    25.88    73.20    94.71    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.19     4.87    20.02     0.01     0.53     3.82    20.67    96.42     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.95     5.19    10.84     0.00     0.02     0.42     4.41    76.29     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.05     5.05     4.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    13.76     0.04R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.56     5.10    -1.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     6.25     0.17R    0.00  
Man_City        25   31   +8      48.48     4.86     7.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.17     0.39R    0.01  
Fulham          24   30   +0      48.38     5.20    -0.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.16     0.66R    0.03  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.58     4.85   -12.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.34     5.06R    0.39  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.17     4.96   -19.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     6.02R    0.54  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.82     4.83   -16.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    15.44R    1.87  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.84     5.17   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     6.10R    0.70  
Portsmouth      25   27  -14      41.55     4.97   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    14.19R    2.19  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.04     4.90    -9.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    18.51R    3.26  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.16     4.98   -24.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    35.49R    8.71  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.20     4.90   -24.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    49.93R   14.59  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.18     4.48   -27.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.85R   33.02  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.59     4.74   -33.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.16R   34.68  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 February 2009, Derby vs Blackpool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    33   63  +21      87.44     4.93    32.06    27.82    68.38    99.68    76.25P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   60  +12      82.53     5.23    16.96     7.23    23.77    95.59    41.39P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.14     5.21    48.47    59.10    85.34    99.91    91.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          33   53   +5      72.64     5.07     7.77     0.06     0.60    44.06     8.71P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      80.95     6.03    24.70     5.61    20.06    90.10    40.76P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      73.01     5.19    18.22     0.10     1.00    51.23    14.66P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   51   +1      69.65     5.13     2.19     0.01     0.11    22.46     3.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     33   50   +5      67.31     5.00     4.31     0.00     0.05    12.67     2.53P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          32   48  +11      71.90     5.20    18.22     0.03     0.40    43.34    11.46P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          33   47   +9      65.60     4.94    10.19     0.00     0.01     8.11     1.96P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.65     5.50     5.80     0.01     0.17    20.36     4.41P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   43   +7      65.70     5.91     8.19     0.02     0.11    11.53     2.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        33   42  -11      55.62     4.89   -17.36     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.98R    0.03  
Coventry         32   41   -3      59.29     5.25    -4.09     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.13P    0.45R    0.01  
Doncaster        32   40   -9      54.41     4.94   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    3.52R    0.07  
Derby            31   38   -5      56.49     5.49    -8.21     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P    2.15R    0.06  
Blackpool        33   38  -12      54.01     4.97   -14.73     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     5.55R    0.21  
Barnsley         31   35  -11      51.20     5.28   -17.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.98R    1.00  
Plymouth         33   35  -13      48.39     4.68   -19.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.98R    1.80  
Nottm_Forest     33   34  -12      48.38     4.88   -17.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.35R    2.24  
Watford          31   33   -9      54.04     5.64    -8.60     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    7.00R    0.47  
Norwich          33   32   -9      47.68     5.02   -12.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.71R    3.20  
Southampton      32   28  -21      41.24     4.93   -30.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.46R   33.00  
Charlton         32   25  -21      38.56     4.94   -31.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.84R   57.91  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 February 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        32   70  +35      97.90     5.06    49.06    80.76    97.74   100.00    98.57P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   60  +28      90.36     5.75    41.76    17.22    76.25    99.45    83.79P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     31   54  +15      79.39     5.61    23.05     0.39     5.50    80.36    24.44P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   53  +14      81.20     6.09    21.90     1.13    11.27    85.26    29.81P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   53  +12      78.09     5.67    18.96     0.14     3.84    72.49    21.53P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         29   52   +7      78.20     6.20    11.23     0.34     4.71    69.89    18.85P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        31   48  +12      71.18     5.61    15.88     0.00     0.21    27.10     7.39P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            31   48  +10      71.33     5.63    14.29     0.01     0.29    27.53     7.23P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         31   48   +6      69.69     5.66     7.65     0.01     0.14    17.68     4.11P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     31   47   -2      67.51     5.53    -2.28     0.00     0.03     8.61     1.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       30   42   +1      64.64     5.78     1.95     0.00     0.01     4.61     0.99P    0.11R    0.00  
Walsall          31   40   -3      60.93     5.55    -2.57     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.20P    0.54R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   39   +8      63.93     6.26    10.15     0.00     0.01     5.30     1.40P    0.24R    0.00  
Southend         30   37  -12      54.29     5.61   -19.40     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    9.46R    0.07  
Hartlepool       31   36   -6      55.99     5.76    -7.44     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    5.30R    0.02  
Carlisle         30   36   -7      57.02     5.86    -8.91     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    4.08R    0.04  
Yeovil           30   36  -12      54.95     5.74   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    7.93R    0.06  
Northampton      29   33   +0      56.56     6.14     0.21     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P    4.77R    0.06  
Swindon          29   30   -8      53.17     6.12    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   13.80R    0.34  
Leyton_Orient    31   30  -15      45.96     5.23   -20.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.27R    2.98  
Brighton         29   28  -12      47.06     5.84   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.29R    2.64  
Hereford         29   27  -16      44.65     5.81   -24.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.89R    5.95  
Crewe            29   25  -25      41.48     5.68   -38.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.41R   18.36  
Cheltenham       29   21  -30      35.19     5.43   -48.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.90R   69.49  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 February 2009, Bradford vs Darlington; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            31   56  +20      81.71     5.40    27.88    18.79    54.15    93.04    65.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   56  +17      84.76     5.56    27.08    37.16    73.39    97.32    79.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   53  +13      78.18     5.43    20.37     5.59    28.00    80.68    39.44P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   52  +20      75.92     5.21    27.17     2.54    17.08    70.77    33.00P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             30   52  +17      76.58     5.77    21.45     4.94    22.15    70.75    31.99P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             31   52  +17      77.83     5.54    25.37     5.53    27.71    79.38    40.22P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               31   50   +9      70.70     5.48     9.45     0.35     3.17    29.02     7.95P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           28   48  +19      81.65     6.18    33.08    22.32    55.79    91.19    65.67P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           31   47   -1      66.05     5.48    -3.30     0.03     0.50     8.63     1.70P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            30   46  +21      75.36     5.73    33.16     2.72    17.48    67.11    31.78P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   38   +3      62.43     6.04     4.93     0.01     0.14     3.91     0.94P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         28   37   +4      63.69     6.29     7.43     0.02     0.42     6.63     1.68P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            31   37   -6      54.49     5.31   -10.50     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot            29   37   -9      57.72     5.84   -14.36     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         31   36   -9      52.83     5.21   -14.74     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.03R    0.00  
Macclesfield         30   33  -23      48.45     5.30   -35.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.66R    0.02  
Port_Vale            29   31  -16      47.60     5.73   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.17R    0.05  
Rotherham            27   28   +8      57.22     6.63    13.00     0.00     0.03     1.00     0.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   28  -14      46.70     5.68   -18.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    0.08  
Chester              32   25  -27      38.02     4.86   -36.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.39R    2.33  
Grimsby              30   23  -22      39.38     5.49   -31.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.51R    2.29  
Barnet               30   23  -25      38.16     5.36   -36.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.75R    3.41  
Bournemouth          30   18   -7      38.16     5.77    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.06R    3.41  
Luton                29    2   -9      23.81     6.11   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.04R   88.42  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 18 February 2009, Forest_Green vs Northwich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        32   74  +29      98.26     5.33    36.97    86.12    99.96    89.46P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               28   55  +19      87.02     6.30    30.55     9.53    90.47    30.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        31   53  +13      79.24     5.50    21.46     0.39    56.70    14.71P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            32   53  +11      74.10     5.43    13.80     0.02    21.33     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              29   52  +21      82.90     6.07    33.48     2.19    78.95    23.31P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              29   52  +16      80.46     6.09    23.73     1.30    64.24    17.04P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   52   +9      71.71     5.37     9.72     0.00    10.40     1.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        30   49   +8      72.46     5.89    10.09     0.01    15.06     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.27     6.06    22.35     0.08    26.67     6.89P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            26   43   +8      75.83     6.78    16.05     0.36    34.54     9.12P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             31   42   +0      63.24     5.52     0.71     0.00     0.39     0.07P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.17     5.82    -9.29     0.00     0.38     0.05P    0.07R    0.00  
Mansfield            31   41   +2      62.96     5.49     4.15     0.00     0.42     0.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      62.98     5.46     7.64     0.00     0.39     0.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham           30   40  -12      58.80     5.65   -16.54     0.00     0.07     0.00P    0.36R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.42     5.82    -7.06     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.72R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.55     5.76     0.09     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.47R    0.00  
Salisbury            31   33  -17      46.28     5.09   -29.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.69R    0.02  
Forest_Green         30   32  -10      50.88     5.59   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.45R    0.01  
Woking               32   32  -11      46.95     5.09   -16.60     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.16R    0.01  
Barrow               29   31  -13      49.44     5.66   -21.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.44R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       28   29  -12      47.02     5.86   -21.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.94R    0.04  
Northwich            31   19  -25      34.84     5.27   -33.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.69R    7.78  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.43     4.12   -60.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   92.14  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4