Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 17 February 2009 at 22:06:15 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2009, Portsmouth vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   56  +31      87.26     4.55    48.79    80.51    95.90    99.43    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.90     4.59    39.41    15.69    69.01    92.21    98.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      73.03     4.96    22.90     0.88     8.90    32.30    81.90    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.36     4.78    43.46     2.91    25.64    71.73    94.18    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.10     4.90    19.89     0.02     0.53     3.86    20.35    95.73     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.89     5.16    10.77     0.00     0.02     0.45     4.41    74.87     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.24     5.05     4.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    13.87     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.66     5.09    -1.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     6.05     0.17R    0.01  
Man_City        25   31   +8      48.39     4.90     7.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.00     0.48R    0.02  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.73     5.42     2.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.59     0.41R    0.02  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.62     4.90   -12.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35     4.77R    0.25  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.11     4.98   -19.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     6.22R    0.56  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.85     4.84   -16.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    14.86R    1.73  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.86     5.15   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     6.01R    0.64  
Portsmouth      25   27  -14      41.69     4.99   -19.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    13.51R    2.03  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.06     4.93    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    18.36R    3.04  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.00     4.98   -24.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    36.61R    8.84  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.32     4.94   -23.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    48.46R   13.81  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      32.96     4.48   -27.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.01R   33.93  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.37     4.70   -33.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    74.12R   35.12  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 February 2009, Burnley vs Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    33   63  +21      87.50     4.91    32.12    27.97    69.04    99.73    77.16P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   60  +12      82.41     5.29    16.78     7.18    23.43    95.36    40.59P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.06     5.18    48.33    58.69    85.24    99.89    90.98P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          33   53   +5      72.67     5.14     7.83     0.06     0.67    44.80     9.23P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      80.89     6.08    24.62     5.87    19.60    89.66    39.90P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      73.07     5.21    18.29     0.15     1.11    51.66    14.98P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          33   51   +1      69.64     5.16     2.15     0.00     0.13    22.97     4.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     33   50   +5      67.43     4.98     4.48     0.00     0.05    13.14     2.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          32   48  +11      71.83     5.23    18.11     0.05     0.46    43.00    11.25P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.59     5.51     5.71     0.02     0.16    20.32     4.60P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          32   44   +8      64.57     5.17    10.05     0.00     0.01     6.40     1.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   30   43   +7      65.86     5.91     8.41     0.01     0.09    12.02     2.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        33   42  -11      55.69     4.87   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.94R    0.03  
Coventry         32   41   -3      59.30     5.27    -4.09     0.00     0.00     0.68     0.13P    0.47R    0.00  
Doncaster        32   40   -9      54.48     4.91   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    3.40R    0.06  
Blackpool        32   38   -9      55.77     5.24   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    3.36R    0.10  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.29     5.77   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    6.37R    0.36  
Barnsley         31   35  -11      51.07     5.24   -17.63     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.75R    0.99  
Plymouth         33   35  -13      48.41     4.70   -19.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.00R    1.80  
Nottm_Forest     32   34  -11      49.12     5.10   -17.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.85R    2.06  
Watford          31   33   -9      54.05     5.65    -8.58     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.24R    0.50  
Norwich          33   32   -9      47.67     4.98   -12.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.24R    3.26  
Southampton      32   28  -21      41.30     4.95   -30.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.43R   32.44  
Charlton         32   25  -21      38.54     4.94   -31.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.92R   58.40  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 February 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Yeovil; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        32   70  +35      97.79     5.09    48.86    80.31    97.55   100.00    98.44P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   60  +28      90.40     5.71    41.80    17.77    76.60    99.49    84.14P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     31   54  +15      79.38     5.62    23.03     0.34     5.45    80.02    24.53P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   53  +14      81.26     6.08    21.93     1.12    11.44    85.28    29.85P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   53  +12      78.25     5.63    19.20     0.13     3.95    73.40    22.02P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         29   52   +7      78.02     6.16    10.94     0.32     4.44    68.81    18.09P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        31   48  +12      71.15     5.59    15.80     0.00     0.17    26.68     7.22P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            31   48  +10      71.45     5.63    14.51     0.00     0.26    28.38     7.44P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         31   48   +6      69.58     5.64     7.51     0.00     0.10    17.16     3.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     31   47   -2      67.52     5.52    -2.29     0.00     0.02     8.75     1.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       30   42   +1      64.75     5.83     2.09     0.00     0.01     5.02     1.15P    0.11R    0.00  
Walsall          31   40   -3      60.96     5.51    -2.52     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.18P    0.52R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   39   +8      64.04     6.26    10.38     0.00     0.01     5.40     1.38P    0.21R    0.00  
Southend         30   37  -12      54.44     5.65   -19.16     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    8.96R    0.07  
Hartlepool       31   36   -6      56.12     5.71    -7.22     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    4.85R    0.05  
Carlisle         30   36   -7      57.04     5.89    -8.88     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P    4.04R    0.03  
Yeovil           30   36  -12      54.78     5.78   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.30R    0.08  
Northampton      29   33   +0      56.57     6.13     0.24     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P    4.74R    0.04  
Swindon          29   30   -8      53.17     6.13    -8.73     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.75R    0.35  
Leyton_Orient    31   30  -15      45.89     5.27   -20.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    57.49R    3.17  
Brighton         29   28  -12      46.98     5.83   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.03R    2.63  
Hereford         29   27  -16      44.45     5.74   -25.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.31R    6.06  
Crewe            29   25  -25      41.51     5.69   -37.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.90R   18.00  
Cheltenham       29   21  -30      35.21     5.42   -48.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.78R   69.52  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 February 2009, Bradford vs Darlington; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            31   56  +20      81.62     5.37    27.74    18.12    53.98    93.04    64.66P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              30   56  +17      84.72     5.57    27.01    36.97    73.34    97.19    80.00P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   53  +13      78.07     5.42    20.20     5.62    27.14    80.15    38.72P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   52  +20      75.94     5.20    27.15     2.57    17.26    70.90    33.25P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             30   52  +17      76.63     5.78    21.58     5.30    22.30    71.12    32.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             31   52  +17      77.77     5.51    25.30     5.64    27.49    79.50    39.99P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               31   50   +9      70.62     5.46     9.35     0.29     3.11    28.24     7.85P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           28   48  +19      81.74     6.10    33.13    22.42    56.56    91.55    66.46P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           31   47   -1      66.07     5.45    -3.23     0.04     0.44     8.42     1.60P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            30   46  +21      75.42     5.79    33.28     2.98    17.79    67.50    32.10P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   38   +3      62.48     6.01     5.02     0.00     0.12     3.88     0.87P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         28   37   +4      63.79     6.33     7.61     0.04     0.43     7.02     1.78P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            31   37   -6      54.62     5.33   -10.33     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot            29   37   -9      57.72     5.89   -14.37     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         31   36   -9      52.85     5.23   -14.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         30   33  -23      48.48     5.30   -34.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.68R    0.02  
Port_Vale            29   31  -16      47.55     5.72   -27.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.25R    0.04  
Rotherham            27   28   +8      57.21     6.61    13.02     0.00     0.03     0.96     0.34P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   28  -14      46.58     5.70   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.57R    0.09  
Chester              32   25  -27      38.05     4.87   -36.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.45R    2.42  
Grimsby              30   23  -22      39.41     5.51   -31.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.52R    2.10  
Barnet               30   23  -25      38.15     5.42   -36.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.88R    3.52  
Bournemouth          30   18   -7      38.18     5.79    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.50R    3.48  
Luton                29    2   -9      23.75     6.11   -11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.09R   88.32  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 17 February 2009, Burton_Albion vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        32   74  +29      98.30     5.36    37.02    86.22    99.97    89.72P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               28   55  +19      86.92     6.27    30.42     9.38    90.62    30.25P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        31   53  +13      79.28     5.46    21.48     0.36    57.18    14.81P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            32   53  +11      74.10     5.42    13.81     0.02    21.41     4.03P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              29   52  +21      83.07     6.05    33.76     2.35    79.86    23.94P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              29   52  +16      80.33     6.12    23.58     1.27    63.86    16.61P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   52   +9      71.74     5.37     9.78     0.01    10.69     2.13P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        30   49   +8      72.53     5.91    10.22     0.02    15.43     3.04P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.24     6.06    22.25     0.07    26.90     6.83P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            26   43   +8      75.44     6.76    15.49     0.30    32.36     8.36P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             31   42   +0      63.27     5.55     0.76     0.00     0.44     0.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.09     5.84    -9.44     0.00     0.41     0.05P    0.06R    0.00  
Mansfield            31   41   +2      62.99     5.47     4.18     0.00     0.42     0.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      62.92     5.52     7.55     0.00     0.38     0.08P    0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           30   40  -12      58.88     5.61   -16.40     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.27R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.26     5.82    -7.29     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.89R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.47     5.75    -0.04     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.56R    0.00  
Salisbury            31   33  -17      46.27     5.12   -29.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.94R    0.02  
Woking               32   32  -11      46.97     5.13   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.08R    0.01  
Barrow               29   31  -13      49.52     5.67   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.96R    0.03  
Grays_Athletic       28   29  -12      47.38     5.91   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.89R    0.03  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      49.07     5.86   -19.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.20R    0.03  
Northwich            30   19  -22      36.45     5.61   -29.72     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.10R    5.45  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.42     4.12   -60.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   94.44  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4