Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 16 February 2009 at 22:06:12 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2009, Portsmouth vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   56  +31      87.40     4.53    48.99    80.59    96.02    99.49    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.96     4.62    39.46    15.65    68.83    92.43    99.04   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.92     4.92    22.74     0.80     8.26    30.97    81.74    99.76     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.52     4.72    43.71     2.95    26.36    73.01    94.77    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.02     4.89    19.79     0.01     0.50     3.65    19.95    95.53     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.89     5.20    10.83     0.00     0.03     0.45     4.37    74.81     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.22     5.05     4.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    13.82     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.60     5.08    -1.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     6.06     0.15R    0.00  
Man_City        25   31   +8      48.37     4.93     7.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.15     0.46R    0.02  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.88     5.37     2.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.72     0.35R    0.02  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.54     4.91   -12.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     5.15R    0.30  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.09     4.92   -19.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     5.96R    0.61  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.76     4.83   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    15.18R    1.97  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.89     5.15   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36     5.82R    0.65  
Portsmouth      25   27  -14      41.50     4.99   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    14.46R    2.28  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.06     4.87    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    17.73R    3.05  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.10     4.98   -24.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    35.73R    8.77  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.14     4.88   -24.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    50.18R   14.44  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.09     4.47   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.04R   32.95  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.45     4.68   -33.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.78R   34.95  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2009, Birmingham vs Nottm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    33   63  +21      87.54     4.91    32.18    27.92    68.30    99.67    76.14P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   60  +12      82.55     5.26    16.95     7.15    23.59    94.65    40.63P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.09     5.19    48.35    58.78    84.62    99.83    90.58P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          33   53   +5      72.53     5.10     7.65     0.05     0.53    39.51     7.63P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.02     6.05    24.86     5.74    19.77    88.63    40.11P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      72.96     5.21    18.15     0.12     0.99    47.11    13.44P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     32   50   +6      69.03     5.27     5.83     0.02     0.16    18.97     3.89P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          32   50   +1      70.47     5.39     2.85     0.01     0.26    25.73     4.52P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   48  +13      73.98     5.52    21.30     0.19     1.59    55.80    16.19P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.48     5.46     5.59     0.01     0.11    17.40     3.87P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          32   44   +8      64.62     5.19    10.15     0.00     0.01     5.43     1.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        32   42  -10      57.69     5.18   -15.38     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P    0.82R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.74     6.12     5.72     0.00     0.05     6.17     1.49P    0.10R    0.00  
Coventry         31   40   -3      59.28     5.53    -4.66     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.11P    0.55R    0.01  
Blackpool        32   38   -9      55.63     5.22   -11.26     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    2.99R    0.12  
Doncaster        31   37  -10      52.47     5.09   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    7.64R    0.29  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.32     5.75   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    5.77R    0.30  
Plymouth         32   35  -11      50.06     4.99   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.19R    0.89  
Nottm_Forest     32   34  -11      49.28     5.13   -17.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.01R    1.75  
Norwich          33   32   -9      47.67     4.99   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    29.37R    3.29  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.88     5.49   -19.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.80R    3.03  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.66     5.90   -11.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   14.14R    1.47  
Southampton      32   28  -21      41.28     4.92   -30.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.96R   32.04  
Charlton         32   25  -21      38.62     4.93   -31.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.66R   56.80  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2009, Brighton vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        31   69  +35      99.31     5.29    50.71    85.27    98.15   100.00    98.87P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   60  +28      90.12     5.72    41.40    13.03    73.18    99.26    81.59P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     30   53  +15      79.74     5.82    23.08     0.34     6.16    78.28    24.43P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   53  +14      81.11     6.10    21.79     0.78    10.66    82.67    28.47P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   53  +12      78.10     5.64    19.04     0.06     3.67    68.94    20.16P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         28   51   +7      79.26     6.47    12.26     0.50     6.78    71.93    20.98P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            30   48  +12      73.95     5.85    18.30     0.01     0.97    42.22    11.64P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         30   47   +6      70.06     5.92     7.69     0.00     0.19    18.09     4.25P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     31   47   -2      67.69     5.56    -1.95     0.00     0.04     7.83     1.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport        30   45  +11      70.67     5.80    16.94     0.01     0.19    22.29     6.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester       30   42   +1      64.59     5.81     1.88     0.00     0.01     3.99     0.87P    0.08R    0.00  
Walsall          31   40   -3      61.01     5.52    -2.39     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.15P    0.37R    0.00  
Southend         29   37  -11      56.87     5.96   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    4.04R    0.03  
Bristol_Rovers   28   36   +5      62.14     6.50     6.86     0.00     0.00     2.92     0.73P    0.57R    0.00  
Carlisle         30   36   -7      57.05     5.85    -8.87     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P    3.26R    0.02  
Yeovil           29   36   -9      56.70     6.00   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    3.97R    0.03  
Hartlepool       30   35   -6      55.35     5.88    -9.04     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    5.52R    0.04  
Northampton      29   33   +0      56.64     6.15     0.29     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.07P    4.04R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient    31   30  -15      45.80     5.29   -20.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   54.78R    2.17  
Swindon          28   29   -8      52.92     6.34    -9.69     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.80R    0.34  
Brighton         29   28  -12      47.11     5.85   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   43.87R    1.79  
Hereford         28   24  -18      41.70     5.94   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.84R   11.91  
Crewe            28   22  -26      39.03     5.88   -40.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.90R   26.70  
Cheltenham       28   21  -29      35.49     5.60   -50.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.95R   56.94  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2009, Bournemouth vs Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            31   56  +20      81.51     5.37    27.51    18.34    51.71    92.05    62.87P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   53  +16      82.51     5.78    25.23    23.66    57.81    92.78    67.20P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   53  +13      78.19     5.43    20.43     6.19    27.17    79.08    38.61P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             29   51  +17      78.03     6.02    23.14     8.77    29.78    76.26    39.61P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             30   51  +17      78.33     5.81    25.62     8.35    31.19    79.67    42.42P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               31   50   +9      70.64     5.48     9.35     0.35     3.09    26.97     7.51P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   49  +19      75.43     5.38    28.01     2.44    15.35    65.24    30.60P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.71     6.44    32.68    24.73    54.74    89.64    64.26P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            29   46  +22      77.27     5.97    35.11     7.05    27.65    75.54    41.48P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           30   46   -1      67.15     5.72    -1.95     0.08     0.96    11.55     2.60P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   38   +3      62.36     6.10     4.78     0.01     0.13     3.48     0.84P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         28   37   +4      63.75     6.32     7.50     0.04     0.40     6.24     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            30   36   -6      53.97     5.50   -12.10     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Aldershot            28   36   -9      57.27     6.07   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         30   35   -9      53.14     5.48   -14.96     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Macclesfield         29   32  -23      48.92     5.64   -35.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.79R    0.02  
Port_Vale            29   31  -16      47.54     5.74   -27.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.31R    0.04  
Rotherham            27   28   +8      57.43     6.61    13.32     0.00     0.02     0.94     0.32P    0.04R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   28  -14      46.63     5.70   -18.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.61R    0.07  
Chester              31   25  -26      38.55     5.03   -37.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.81R    2.46  
Grimsby              30   23  -22      39.42     5.44   -31.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.84R    2.17  
Barnet               30   23  -25      38.25     5.39   -36.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.14R    3.60  
Bournemouth          30   18   -7      38.21     5.81    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.57R    3.59  
Luton                29    2   -9      23.93     6.13   -11.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.83R   88.05  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 February 2009, Kidderminster vs Northwich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        31   71  +28      96.82     5.60    36.26    78.79    99.83    83.98P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               28   55  +19      86.94     6.35    30.39    11.84    90.32    32.08P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            32   53  +11      73.99     5.42    13.66     0.03    21.12     3.84P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              28   52  +22      84.25     6.34    34.46     6.48    83.52    28.22P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              29   52  +16      80.50     6.15    23.83     1.70    64.27    17.45P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   52   +9      71.77     5.35     9.81     0.01    10.70     1.94P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      76.82     5.71    18.26     0.24    38.87     9.63P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        29   49  +10      74.80     6.13    13.57     0.18    26.72     5.80P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.30     6.08    22.43     0.17    27.14     7.16P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            25   42   +8      75.93     7.00    15.68     0.56    35.59     9.53P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             31   42   +0      63.26     5.60     0.75     0.00     0.45     0.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.13     5.78    -9.37     0.00     0.40     0.07P    0.06R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      63.03     5.49     7.71     0.00     0.38     0.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield            30   40   +2      63.29     5.73     4.11     0.00     0.63     0.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           30   40  -12      58.82     5.64   -16.51     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.23R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.06     5.77    -7.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.77R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.45     5.71    -0.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.36R    0.00  
Woking               31   32  -10      48.38     5.38   -15.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.92R    0.01  
Barrow               29   31  -13      49.38     5.67   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.28R    0.02  
Salisbury            30   30  -18      44.63     5.31   -30.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.74R    0.11  
Grays_Athletic       28   29  -12      47.36     5.96   -21.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.78R    0.03  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      49.02     5.78   -19.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.66R    0.03  
Northwich            30   19  -22      36.53     5.63   -29.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.17R    5.50  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.43     4.10   -60.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   94.31  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4