Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 15 February 2009 at 22:27:59 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2009, Portsmouth vs Man_City; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   56  +31      87.33     4.52    48.83    80.70    95.90    99.39    99.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.90     4.62    39.37    15.39    68.59    92.01    98.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      73.02     4.95    22.89     0.87     8.70    31.40    81.93    99.77     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.54     4.72    43.73     3.02    26.27    72.99    94.60    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.06     4.89    19.82     0.02     0.51     3.73    20.09    95.68     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.87     5.12    10.77     0.00     0.03     0.47     4.25    74.90     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.11     5.08     4.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    13.65     0.03R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.63     5.08    -1.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     6.04     0.16R    0.01  
Man_City        25   31   +8      48.43     4.89     7.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     3.21     0.45R    0.02  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.80     5.41     2.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.61     0.41R    0.02  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.51     4.84   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33     4.88R    0.28  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.00     4.93   -19.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     6.31R    0.52  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.80     4.81   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    15.02R    1.87  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.88     5.15   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     5.90R    0.63  
Portsmouth      25   27  -14      41.61     5.00   -19.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    14.09R    2.08  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.12     4.90    -9.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    17.82R    2.99  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.07     5.00   -24.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    36.23R    9.07  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.21     4.89   -23.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    49.41R   14.16  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.03     4.50   -27.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.48R   33.81  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.48     4.71   -33.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.81R   34.54  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2009, Birmingham vs Nottm_Forest; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    33   63  +21      87.51     4.92    32.13    27.81    68.00    99.60    76.11P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       32   60  +12      82.61     5.25    17.05     7.42    23.57    94.68    40.18P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.11     5.16    48.41    58.54    84.91    99.84    90.67P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          33   53   +5      72.78     5.10     7.98     0.07     0.57    41.18     8.48P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      80.96     6.08    24.78     5.81    19.79    88.29    39.82P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      72.89     5.16    18.07     0.10     0.97    45.86    13.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     32   50   +6      69.02     5.28     5.77     0.01     0.13    18.50     3.79P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          32   50   +1      70.45     5.43     2.84     0.01     0.23    25.56     4.55P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   48  +13      74.10     5.49    21.48     0.20     1.66    56.12    16.39P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.68     5.51     5.84     0.01     0.14    18.19     4.20P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          32   44   +8      64.59     5.16    10.10     0.00     0.01     5.16     1.25P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        32   42  -10      57.80     5.21   -15.23     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    0.80R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.62     6.17     5.54     0.00     0.03     5.92     1.31P    0.08R    0.00  
Coventry         31   40   -3      59.38     5.50    -4.54     0.00     0.00     0.73     0.13P    0.48R    0.01  
Blackpool        32   38   -9      55.56     5.23   -11.35     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.89R    0.13  
Doncaster        31   37  -10      52.31     5.13   -16.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    8.39R    0.31  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.43     5.74   -11.76     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    5.50R    0.36  
Plymouth         32   35  -11      50.07     4.95   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.77R    0.81  
Nottm_Forest     32   34  -11      49.22     5.12   -17.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   22.09R    1.73  
Norwich          33   32   -9      47.52     5.00   -12.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    30.23R    3.48  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.81     5.47   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.78R    2.97  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.58     5.87   -12.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.25R    1.54  
Southampton      32   28  -21      41.31     4.95   -30.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.10R   31.51  
Charlton         32   25  -21      38.56     4.94   -31.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.63R   57.15  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2009, Brighton vs Carlisle; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        31   69  +35      99.36     5.26    50.78    85.41    98.36   100.00    98.95P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          30   60  +28      90.11     5.69    41.35    12.89    73.23    99.24    81.76P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     30   53  +15      79.61     5.88    22.85     0.38     6.45    77.43    24.06P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       29   53  +14      81.06     6.11    21.72     0.75    10.46    82.77    27.98P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   53  +12      78.13     5.63    19.11     0.07     3.56    69.66    20.55P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         28   51   +7      79.27     6.42    12.30     0.46     6.63    72.16    20.84P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            30   48  +12      74.01     5.87    18.43     0.03     0.96    42.57    12.28P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         30   47   +6      69.94     5.91     7.47     0.00     0.16    17.54     4.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     31   47   -2      67.75     5.56    -1.91     0.00     0.02     8.17     1.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport        30   45  +11      70.64     5.77    16.91     0.00     0.15    22.23     6.10P    0.00R    0.00  
Colchester       30   42   +1      64.56     5.79     1.85     0.00     0.01     3.93     0.76P    0.10R    0.00  
Walsall          31   40   -3      60.96     5.50    -2.48     0.00     0.00     0.65     0.16P    0.44R    0.00  
Southend         29   37  -11      56.81     5.98   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    4.02R    0.02  
Bristol_Rovers   28   36   +5      62.04     6.46     6.68     0.00     0.01     2.64     0.64P    0.62R    0.00  
Carlisle         30   36   -7      57.11     5.86    -8.79     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P    3.22R    0.01  
Yeovil           29   36   -9      56.62     6.06   -12.69     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.05P    4.14R    0.02  
Hartlepool       30   35   -6      55.65     5.89    -8.56     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    5.12R    0.04  
Northampton      29   33   +0      56.70     6.17     0.47     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.07P    3.89R    0.02  
Leyton_Orient    31   30  -15      45.67     5.26   -21.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.44R    2.36  
Swindon          28   29   -8      53.00     6.37    -9.56     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   13.59R    0.31  
Brighton         29   28  -12      47.22     5.84   -18.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.99R    1.84  
Hereford         28   24  -18      41.66     5.90   -28.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.46R   11.63  
Crewe            28   22  -26      38.90     5.91   -40.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.03R   27.39  
Cheltenham       28   21  -29      35.54     5.55   -49.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    96.95R   56.33  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 14 February 2009, Bournemouth vs Accrington_Stanley; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            31   56  +20      81.62     5.35    27.70    18.55    52.66    92.25    63.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              29   53  +16      82.48     5.80    25.19    23.71    57.28    92.53    66.86P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 31   53  +13      78.19     5.40    20.45     6.14    26.96    79.35    38.50P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             29   51  +17      78.13     6.01    23.35     8.91    30.54    76.78    40.41P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             30   51  +17      78.16     5.82    25.40     7.90    29.95    78.69    41.48P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               31   50   +9      70.79     5.51     9.61     0.38     3.37    27.91     8.03P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           31   49  +19      75.46     5.40    28.08     2.40    15.49    65.34    30.59P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.71     6.51    32.68    25.01    54.84    89.21    64.01P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            29   46  +22      77.23     5.96    35.10     6.87    27.39    75.26    40.67P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           30   46   -1      67.03     5.74    -2.16     0.09     0.90    11.29     2.51P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   38   +3      62.45     6.09     4.94     0.00     0.17     3.71     0.99P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         28   37   +4      63.74     6.28     7.55     0.03     0.45     6.18     1.64P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            30   36   -6      53.93     5.50   -12.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.02R    0.00  
Aldershot            28   36   -9      57.38     6.11   -15.50     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         30   35   -9      53.23     5.50   -14.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Macclesfield         29   32  -23      48.95     5.58   -35.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.72R    0.02  
Port_Vale            29   31  -16      47.45     5.77   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32R    0.07  
Rotherham            27   28   +8      57.43     6.63    13.28     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.30P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   30   28  -14      46.45     5.67   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.79R    0.09  
Chester              31   25  -26      38.52     5.02   -37.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.55R    2.15  
Grimsby              30   23  -22      39.55     5.45   -31.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.12R    2.02  
Barnet               30   23  -25      38.43     5.42   -36.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.93R    3.33  
Bournemouth          30   18   -7      37.91     5.77   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.53R    3.79  
Luton                29    2   -9      23.85     6.11   -11.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.94R   88.54  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 15 February 2009, Kidderminster vs Northwich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        31   71  +28      96.82     5.61    36.24    79.38    99.86    84.53P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               28   55  +19      86.83     6.32    30.20    11.75    90.17    31.60P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            32   53  +11      74.00     5.43    13.67     0.03    21.28     3.99P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              28   52  +22      84.02     6.33    34.07     5.87    82.90    27.14P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              29   52  +16      80.50     6.12    23.84     1.90    64.69    17.97P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           32   52   +9      71.62     5.36     9.61     0.01    10.19     1.93P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      76.91     5.75    18.41     0.24    39.65     9.94P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        29   49  +10      74.75     6.14    13.53     0.12    26.85     5.79P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.25     6.11    22.33     0.15    27.00     7.26P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            25   42   +8      75.87     6.97    15.69     0.56    35.35     9.42P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             31   42   +0      63.48     5.58     1.12     0.00     0.48     0.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.17     5.81    -9.31     0.00     0.39     0.06P    0.07R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      62.96     5.53     7.63     0.00     0.43     0.12P    0.04R    0.00  
Mansfield            30   40   +2      63.32     5.73     4.19     0.00     0.67     0.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           30   40  -12      58.74     5.63   -16.58     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.25R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.23     5.80    -7.37     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.74R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.51     5.70     0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.39R    0.00  
Woking               31   32  -10      48.60     5.41   -15.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.41R    0.01  
Barrow               29   31  -13      49.47     5.67   -21.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.86R    0.03  
Salisbury            30   30  -18      44.48     5.38   -30.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.16R    0.10  
Grays_Athletic       28   29  -12      47.35     5.96   -21.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.69R    0.02  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      49.02     5.77   -19.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.56R    0.02  
Northwich            30   19  -22      36.57     5.64   -29.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.85R    5.40  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.41     4.12   -60.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   94.43  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4