Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 13 February 2009 at 22:06:02 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 February 2009, Tottenham vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   56  +31      87.27     4.56    48.84    80.54    95.94    99.39    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.86     4.57    39.34    15.37    68.59    92.45    99.05   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.79     4.96    22.53     0.83     8.29    30.60    80.87    99.66     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.46     4.75    43.58     3.23    26.68    73.26    94.63    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.06     4.89    19.86     0.02     0.48     3.80    20.52    94.92     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.95     5.18    10.91     0.00     0.02     0.49     4.70    73.00     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.16     5.06     4.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    12.82     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.48     5.08    -1.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     5.48     0.14R    0.00  
Man_City        24   31  +10      51.02     5.23    11.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     7.94     0.14R    0.00  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.71     5.38     2.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     5.20     0.30R    0.01  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.63     4.84   -12.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     4.23R    0.28  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.15     4.98   -19.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     5.48R    0.49  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.86     4.83   -16.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    13.72R    1.63  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.90     5.20   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     5.38R    0.62  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      39.97     4.88    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    17.04R    2.92  
Portsmouth      24   24  -16      38.91     5.24   -23.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    28.65R    6.82  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.18     4.96   -24.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.11R    8.04  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.26     4.87   -23.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.57R   13.28  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.11     4.46   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.28R   31.56  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.41     4.72   -33.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.95R   34.35  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Birmingham vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    32   63  +22      89.27     5.20    33.84    38.29    78.01    99.80    83.55P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.16     5.18    48.48    52.07    84.94    99.89    90.62P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   57  +10      81.27     5.48    15.46     4.55    16.29    92.06    33.77P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      80.92     6.03    24.72     4.79    17.59    89.76    38.44P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      72.98     5.19    18.16     0.10     0.84    50.34    14.45P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          32   50   +4      71.65     5.35     7.77     0.04     0.38    36.91     7.26P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   48  +13      74.12     5.53    21.51     0.15     1.49    59.84    17.16P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     31   47   +4      67.79     5.48     4.39     0.00     0.09    15.73     3.05P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.46     5.52     5.56     0.00     0.14    19.28     4.34P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +0      68.25     5.69     0.87     0.01     0.15    17.53     3.01P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          31   43   +8      65.81     5.44    11.42     0.00     0.04    10.07     2.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        31   42   -9      59.24     5.44   -14.12     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.10P    0.69R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.62     6.10     5.55     0.00     0.03     6.73     1.50P    0.08R    0.00  
Coventry         31   40   -3      59.37     5.48    -4.53     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.18P    0.61R    0.00  
Blackpool        31   37   -9      55.28     5.41   -12.32     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    4.16R    0.15  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.51     5.74   -11.66     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.04P    5.79R    0.26  
Plymouth         31   35   -9      52.00     5.34   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.98R    0.43  
Nottm_Forest     31   34   -9      50.28     5.34   -15.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.55R    0.95  
Doncaster        30   34  -11      50.44     5.35   -18.17     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.92R    0.96  
Norwich          32   32   -8      48.54     5.24   -12.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.75R    1.95  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.77     5.50   -19.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.83R    2.49  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.54     5.89   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   15.24R    1.19  
Southampton      31   28  -19      42.28     5.15   -29.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.72R   20.42  
Charlton         31   22  -23      36.59     5.14   -33.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.67R   71.19  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Brighton vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        30   68  +35     100.96     5.42    53.06    88.73    97.85    99.99    98.61P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   57  +26      89.57     5.90    41.26     8.15    59.72    98.40    72.16P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     29   53  +17      82.82     6.04    27.83     0.98    13.13    86.62    32.32P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.95     6.27    26.35     1.56    18.85    88.85    35.96P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           30   50  +11      76.73     5.89    18.44     0.03     1.93    54.08    14.72P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         27   50   +7      79.39     6.72    11.93     0.46     6.09    66.99    18.83P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            29   48  +13      75.82     6.13    20.13     0.07     1.78    48.75    13.88P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   47   +7      71.94     6.15     9.41     0.01     0.39    23.08     5.30P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport        29   44  +11      71.36     6.01    17.38     0.00     0.23    22.01     6.01P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     30   44   -3      65.55     5.78    -3.85     0.00     0.01     3.53     0.61P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester       29   42   +3      66.47     6.04     4.63     0.00     0.02     5.98     1.26P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall          30   37   -5      58.98     5.74    -5.16     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.05P    1.13R    0.00  
Hartlepool       29   35   -4      56.26     6.06    -8.05     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    3.97R    0.06  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.43     6.21   -18.88     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    8.15R    0.11  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.97     6.70     2.04     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.19P    1.99R    0.02  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.75     6.36     0.89     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.06P    2.65R    0.02  
Carlisle         29   33   -9      54.83     6.05   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    6.88R    0.09  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      52.96     6.08   -17.70     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   11.78R    0.22  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.60     6.43   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   17.68R    0.76  
Brighton         28   28  -10      49.76     6.19   -14.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.79R    0.92  
Leyton_Orient    30   27  -16      44.30     5.52   -21.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.63R    5.56  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.84     6.19   -39.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.67R   20.68  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.19     6.11   -31.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.93R   27.72  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.36     5.86   -48.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.68R   43.84  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Brentford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            30   53  +18      80.64     5.59    26.70    15.13    49.04    90.61    60.40P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   53  +17      83.93     6.10    26.36    33.63    68.70    95.45    75.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   50  +12      76.90     5.68    19.89     4.51    23.56    75.03    35.27P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   48  +16      76.83     6.33    22.85     7.21    27.07    72.40    36.53P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             29   48  +16      76.34     6.05    24.10     5.11    23.87    72.07    35.15P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.90     6.42    32.97    25.51    58.88    91.55    67.62P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               30   47   +8      69.77     5.76     9.59     0.32     3.25    27.04     8.05P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   46  +18      74.38     5.61    27.83     1.88    13.99    62.37    29.17P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           29   46   +1      68.60     6.00     0.21     0.27     2.43    20.85     5.23P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.74     6.17    36.08     6.31    28.03    75.46    42.27P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   38   +3      62.55     6.08     5.04     0.01     0.18     4.76     1.21P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.55     6.58     7.61     0.09     0.95    10.44     2.84P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      57.99     6.28   -15.66     0.00     0.03     1.10     0.15P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            29   33   -8      52.57     5.80   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P    0.13R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.71     5.77   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.24R    0.00  
Macclesfield         28   32  -22      50.00     5.93   -34.91     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00     0.78R    0.02  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.28     5.92   -26.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.28R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   29   28  -13      47.71     5.99   -18.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.68R    0.12  
Rotherham            26   25   +6      55.49     6.90    10.85     0.00     0.02     0.74     0.24P    0.14R    0.00  
Chester              30   25  -24      39.73     5.27   -35.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.83R    1.83  
Grimsby              29   23  -21      40.37     5.71   -30.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.59R    1.97  
Barnet               29   23  -23      39.54     5.67   -34.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.37R    2.87  
Bournemouth          29   15   -8      36.68     6.04   -10.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.47R    6.85  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.28     6.26   -12.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.47R   86.28  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Torquay vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        31   71  +28      96.74     5.63    36.13    82.77    99.85    87.04P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               27   52  +15      84.44     6.64    24.84     7.61    82.60    25.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      76.96     5.80    18.51     0.32    43.07    11.11P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.33     5.64     8.96     0.01    12.70     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              27   49  +21      83.56     6.55    34.76     6.22    81.92    28.45P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   49  +14      79.19     6.38    22.23     1.56    58.77    15.80P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.19     6.38    17.74     0.88    50.89    12.45P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.33     5.60     7.13     0.01     8.42     1.61P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.08     6.06    22.06     0.14    28.37     7.35P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             30   42   +3      65.91     5.87     5.78     0.00     2.27     0.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      61.82     5.78    -9.81     0.00     0.42     0.06P    0.14R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      62.97     5.55     7.64     0.00     0.50     0.12P    0.03R    0.00  
Mansfield            30   40   +2      63.56     5.73     4.58     0.00     0.89     0.17P    0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           29   40  -10      59.74     5.81   -15.03     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.34R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.00     7.28    14.36     0.48    29.13     7.70P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.08     5.78    -7.52     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.16R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.33     5.75    -0.17     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.90R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.59     5.65   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.40R    0.01  
Barrow               28   31  -10      51.32     6.00   -17.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.63R    0.00  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.37     5.70   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.60R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.62     6.06   -21.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.52R    0.02  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      49.11     5.85   -19.02     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.18R    0.03  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.31     4.13   -60.70     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   88.27  
Northwich            29   16  -23      33.49     5.73   -33.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.08R   11.66  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4