Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 12 February 2009 at 22:06:02 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 February 2009, Tottenham vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   56  +31      87.34     4.56    48.97    81.31    95.90    99.42    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.75     4.64    39.12    14.91    67.76    91.97    98.97   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.84     4.93    22.59     0.87     8.53    31.05    81.51    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.46     4.69    43.58     2.89    27.23    73.09    94.83    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      65.98     4.92    19.73     0.02     0.56     3.93    19.88    94.76     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.99     5.15    10.91     0.00     0.02     0.53     4.54    73.44     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.24     5.04     4.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14    12.92     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.59     5.10    -1.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.84     0.11R    0.00  
Man_City        24   31  +10      50.78     5.25    10.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     7.62     0.17R    0.00  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.67     5.39     2.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     4.87     0.30R    0.02  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.58     4.90   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30     4.57R    0.30  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.12     4.99   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     5.62R    0.48  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.84     4.84   -16.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    13.88R    1.72  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.82     5.16   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     5.53R    0.57  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.06     4.89    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    16.52R    2.78  
Portsmouth      24   24  -16      38.96     5.22   -23.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    28.69R    6.83  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.12     4.94   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.68R    8.27  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.28     4.89   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.69R   13.58  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.15     4.52   -27.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.95R   31.96  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.56     4.74   -33.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.27R   33.48  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Birmingham vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    32   63  +22      89.26     5.21    33.85    38.44    78.00    99.82    83.50P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.07     5.17    48.37    51.69    84.65    99.89    90.45P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   57  +10      81.18     5.55    15.35     4.53    16.05    91.71    33.20P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.05     6.04    24.89     5.00    18.25    90.03    39.59P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      72.88     5.19    18.04     0.09     0.81    49.82    14.13P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          32   50   +4      71.69     5.38     7.83     0.04     0.40    37.44     7.50P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   48  +13      74.00     5.48    21.35     0.16     1.36    59.68    16.72P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     31   47   +4      67.88     5.48     4.52     0.00     0.14    16.14     3.21P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.42     5.48     5.49     0.01     0.12    19.22     4.14P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +0      68.24     5.68     0.83     0.02     0.12    17.33     3.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   43   +8      65.77     5.44    11.34     0.00     0.04    10.12     2.53P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        31   42   -9      59.22     5.44   -14.11     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.13P    0.70R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.68     6.13     5.64     0.01     0.06     6.89     1.62P    0.13R    0.00  
Coventry         31   40   -3      59.25     5.46    -4.73     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.13P    0.57R    0.01  
Blackpool        31   37   -9      55.17     5.41   -12.51     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.40R    0.12  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.36     5.77   -11.89     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    6.36R    0.30  
Plymouth         31   35   -9      52.22     5.31   -13.54     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.46R    0.39  
Nottm_Forest     31   34   -9      50.27     5.33   -15.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.06R    0.91  
Doncaster        30   34  -11      50.59     5.37   -17.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.46R    0.98  
Norwich          32   32   -8      48.61     5.22   -12.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   25.79R    1.88  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.93     5.44   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    27.84R    2.25  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.53     5.87   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.58R    1.15  
Southampton      31   28  -19      42.35     5.15   -28.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.66R   19.93  
Charlton         31   22  -23      36.50     5.14   -34.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.98R   72.07  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Brighton vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        30   68  +35     100.93     5.42    52.93    88.57    97.95    99.99    98.72P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   57  +26      89.58     5.93    41.30     8.36    59.40    98.33    72.00P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     29   53  +17      82.85     5.99    27.90     0.85    12.75    86.85    32.14P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      84.02     6.36    26.50     1.72    19.41    88.94    36.70P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           30   50  +11      76.81     5.87    18.57     0.03     2.02    54.65    14.85P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         27   50   +7      79.42     6.67    12.00     0.41     6.16    67.40    18.58P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            29   48  +13      75.61     6.10    19.79     0.06     1.57    47.43    13.18P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   47   +7      71.98     6.20     9.49     0.01     0.48    23.69     5.70P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        29   44  +11      71.27     5.99    17.18     0.01     0.22    21.47     5.87P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     30   44   -3      65.59     5.81    -3.79     0.00     0.01     3.58     0.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester       29   42   +3      66.40     6.05     4.56     0.00     0.02     5.96     1.27P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall          30   37   -5      59.04     5.78    -5.08     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    1.13R    0.00  
Hartlepool       29   35   -4      56.31     6.10    -8.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    3.83R    0.06  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.46     6.20   -18.86     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.29R    0.14  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.83     6.67     1.88     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.18P    2.08R    0.03  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.70     6.39     0.83     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.08P    2.68R    0.03  
Carlisle         29   33   -9      54.86     6.12   -11.88     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    7.04R    0.09  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      53.06     6.12   -17.51     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   11.69R    0.21  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.73     6.43   -12.77     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   17.26R    0.69  
Brighton         28   28  -10      49.63     6.20   -14.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.71R    0.98  
Leyton_Orient    30   27  -16      44.50     5.61   -21.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.86R    5.39  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.67     6.12   -39.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.87R   21.05  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.06     6.14   -31.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.29R   28.41  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.51     5.89   -47.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.19R   42.93  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Brentford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            30   53  +18      80.77     5.61    26.84    16.01    49.80    90.86    61.26P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.02     6.05    26.48    33.96    69.35    95.58    76.40P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   50  +12      76.92     5.67    19.93     4.60    23.85    75.04    35.49P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   48  +16      76.68     6.27    22.62     6.70    26.01    72.11    35.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             29   48  +16      76.39     6.06    24.15     5.33    24.01    72.13    35.18P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.69     6.47    32.62    24.34    57.53    90.80    66.41P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               30   47   +8      69.84     5.74     9.68     0.37     3.16    27.33     7.91P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   46  +18      74.46     5.66    27.93     2.13    14.39    62.64    29.39P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           29   46   +1      68.43     5.98    -0.06     0.18     2.13    19.97     4.92P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.78     6.14    36.17     6.26    28.45    76.02    42.90P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   38   +3      62.53     6.06     5.02     0.02     0.21     4.74     1.18P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.63     6.64     7.71     0.10     1.05    10.72     3.01P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.07     6.30   -15.58     0.00     0.05     1.12     0.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Morecambe            29   33   -8      52.52     5.77   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.14R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.81     5.79   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.28R    0.01  
Macclesfield         28   32  -22      50.11     5.93   -34.67     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.71R    0.03  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.16     5.90   -26.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.26R    0.06  
Accrington_Stanley   29   28  -13      47.69     5.93   -18.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.52R    0.08  
Rotherham            26   25   +6      55.41     6.85    10.71     0.00     0.01     0.79     0.26P    0.11R    0.01  
Chester              30   25  -24      39.66     5.33   -35.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.56R    1.87  
Grimsby              29   23  -21      40.47     5.70   -30.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.02R    1.98  
Barnet               29   23  -23      39.72     5.73   -34.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.79R    2.91  
Bournemouth          29   15   -8      36.58     6.04   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.10R    6.90  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.27     6.30   -12.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.48R   86.16  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Torquay vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        31   71  +28      96.73     5.61    36.07    82.67    99.89    86.82P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               27   52  +15      84.48     6.61    24.94     7.44    82.68    24.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      76.96     5.74    18.53     0.32    42.92    11.03P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.34     5.62     9.02     0.01    12.63     2.23P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              27   49  +21      83.72     6.54    35.11     6.32    82.27    28.73P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   49  +14      79.19     6.35    22.18     1.63    58.78    16.13P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.14     6.38    17.65     1.04    50.50    12.43P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.31     5.63     7.05     0.01     8.46     1.59P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.03     6.03    21.99     0.14    27.90     7.30P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             30   42   +3      65.97     5.87     5.91     0.00     2.23     0.47P    0.00R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      61.80     5.83    -9.87     0.00     0.51     0.06P    0.10R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      62.99     5.50     7.68     0.00     0.49     0.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield            30   40   +2      63.57     5.74     4.53     0.00     0.93     0.18P    0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham           29   40  -10      59.88     5.82   -14.86     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.26R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.07     7.30    14.43     0.43    29.61     7.97P    0.00R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.12     5.78    -7.45     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.17R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.43     5.70    -0.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.74R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.60     5.58   -14.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.78R    0.00  
Barrow               28   31  -10      51.11     6.03   -17.83     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.11R    0.01  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.16     5.65   -25.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.76R    0.04  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.60     6.03   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.03R    0.02  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      49.04     5.80   -19.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.91R    0.02  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.32     4.12   -60.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   88.07  
Northwich            29   16  -23      33.43     5.73   -33.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.13R   11.84  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4