Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 11 February 2009 at 22:06:01 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 February 2009, Tottenham vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   56  +31      87.28     4.58    48.87    80.40    95.76    99.36    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.84     4.63    39.27    15.75    68.21    92.21    99.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.74     4.98    22.40     0.83     8.21    30.05    80.43    99.66     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.53     4.70    43.73     3.00    27.19    73.85    94.77    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.10     4.90    19.90     0.02     0.61     4.11    20.82    95.12     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.97     5.15    10.92     0.00     0.02     0.42     4.70    73.21     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.18     5.06     4.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    12.81     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.50     5.12    -1.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.46     0.16R    0.01  
Man_City        24   31  +10      50.92     5.22    11.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     7.77     0.16R    0.00  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.63     5.42     2.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     5.13     0.41R    0.02  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.58     4.86   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.27     4.39R    0.33  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.17     4.98   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20     5.46R    0.50  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.85     4.81   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    13.70R    1.83  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.74     5.16   -11.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     5.83R    0.69  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.08     4.90    -9.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    16.60R    2.77  
Portsmouth      24   24  -16      38.94     5.23   -23.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    28.91R    6.89  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.14     5.00   -24.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    33.65R    8.30  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.17     4.87   -23.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.50R   13.98  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.26     4.55   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.87R   30.96  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.54     4.74   -33.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.36R   33.72  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Birmingham vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    32   63  +22      89.20     5.24    33.74    37.80    77.02    99.82    82.56P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.13     5.16    48.47    52.21    84.79    99.90    90.61P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   57  +10      81.36     5.50    15.59     4.54    16.50    92.10    34.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.18     6.01    25.07     5.12    18.52    90.61    39.54P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      72.94     5.21    18.09     0.10     0.84    49.83    14.16P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          32   50   +4      71.59     5.37     7.73     0.05     0.41    36.54     7.15P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   48  +13      74.13     5.47    21.49     0.16     1.45    60.25    17.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     31   47   +4      67.80     5.48     4.43     0.01     0.11    15.89     3.15P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.54     5.49     5.65     0.01     0.14    19.35     4.40P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +0      68.26     5.70     0.87     0.01     0.13    17.50     3.02P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   43   +8      65.69     5.46    11.21     0.01     0.04     9.81     2.45P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        31   42   -9      59.30     5.41   -14.01     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.12P    0.64R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.59     6.11     5.55     0.00     0.04     6.52     1.48P    0.11R    0.00  
Coventry         31   40   -3      59.44     5.49    -4.48     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.18P    0.57R    0.00  
Blackpool        31   37   -9      55.24     5.48   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    4.21R    0.14  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.33     5.71   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    6.23R    0.28  
Plymouth         31   35   -9      52.07     5.33   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   10.79R    0.43  
Nottm_Forest     31   34   -9      50.29     5.33   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.26R    0.92  
Doncaster        30   34  -11      50.51     5.36   -18.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   17.37R    1.00  
Norwich          32   32   -8      48.50     5.23   -12.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.20R    1.94  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.80     5.47   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.49R    2.45  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.57     5.89   -12.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   15.29R    1.16  
Southampton      31   28  -19      42.19     5.13   -29.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.95R   20.72  
Charlton         31   22  -23      36.59     5.15   -33.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.86R   70.95  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Brighton vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        30   68  +35     101.03     5.44    53.12    88.74    97.86    99.99    98.64P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   57  +26      89.55     5.89    41.28     8.27    60.05    98.51    72.36P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     29   53  +17      82.94     6.04    28.07     0.96    13.72    87.06    33.29P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.82     6.30    26.15     1.54    18.29    88.50    35.58P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           30   50  +11      76.63     5.85    18.25     0.03     1.80    53.71    14.32P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         27   50   +7      79.22     6.64    11.71     0.41     5.82    66.52    18.23P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            29   48  +13      75.77     6.09    20.07     0.05     1.76    48.98    13.96P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   47   +7      71.89     6.17     9.32     0.00     0.41    23.24     5.42P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        29   44  +11      71.22     6.01    17.14     0.00     0.25    21.57     5.78P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     30   44   -3      65.69     5.83    -3.63     0.00     0.02     3.94     0.66P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester       29   42   +3      66.53     6.04     4.78     0.00     0.02     6.19     1.38P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall          30   37   -5      59.04     5.77    -5.05     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.04P    1.15R    0.00  
Hartlepool       29   35   -4      56.27     6.09    -8.10     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    4.13R    0.04  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.51     6.17   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    7.99R    0.12  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.83     6.71     1.80     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.19P    2.22R    0.02  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.61     6.36     0.73     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.11P    2.70R    0.02  
Carlisle         29   33   -9      54.90     6.08   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    6.92R    0.12  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      52.74     6.09   -17.98     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   12.75R    0.23  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.88     6.46   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   16.67R    0.67  
Brighton         28   28  -10      49.72     6.20   -14.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.10R    1.01  
Leyton_Orient    30   27  -16      44.41     5.57   -21.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.79R    5.67  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.82     6.15   -39.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.29R   20.74  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.23     6.13   -31.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.56R   27.71  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.48     5.86   -47.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.69R   43.66  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Brentford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            30   53  +18      80.64     5.62    26.64    14.98    49.04    90.45    60.34P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.04     6.10    26.51    34.34    69.30    95.53    76.22P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   50  +12      76.93     5.74    19.94     4.46    23.78    74.94    35.47P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   48  +16      76.92     6.29    23.02     7.22    27.32    73.17    37.03P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             29   48  +16      76.34     6.04    24.09     5.15    23.52    71.91    34.90P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.81     6.46    32.85    25.02    58.35    91.02    67.36P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               30   47   +8      69.83     5.75     9.68     0.34     3.17    27.51     7.99P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   46  +18      74.46     5.63    27.93     1.96    14.31    62.81    29.47P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           29   46   +1      68.53     6.01     0.10     0.25     2.34    20.56     5.21P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.68     6.13    35.99     6.18    27.73    75.25    41.70P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   38   +3      62.44     6.09     4.90     0.01     0.19     4.44     1.15P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.56     6.60     7.56     0.10     0.91    10.46     2.73P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.11     6.33   -15.50     0.00     0.04     1.14     0.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            29   33   -8      52.56     5.78   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.12R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.90     5.73   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.21R    0.01  
Macclesfield         28   32  -22      49.99     5.87   -34.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.69R    0.02  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.19     5.93   -26.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.40R    0.06  
Accrington_Stanley   29   28  -13      47.83     5.95   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.57R    0.10  
Rotherham            26   25   +6      55.27     6.93    10.48     0.00     0.01     0.72     0.22P    0.16R    0.01  
Chester              30   25  -24      39.64     5.29   -35.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.34R    1.85  
Grimsby              29   23  -21      40.32     5.68   -31.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.64R    2.10  
Barnet               29   23  -23      39.68     5.72   -34.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.66R    2.76  
Bournemouth          29   15   -8      36.64     6.04   -10.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.63R    6.70  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.25     6.26   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.57R   86.39  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Torquay vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        31   71  +28      96.81     5.61    36.26    83.29    99.87    87.42P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               27   52  +15      84.24     6.62    24.53     7.13    81.85    24.39P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      76.85     5.73    18.35     0.28    42.48    10.72P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.49     5.64     9.22     0.02    13.36     2.47P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              27   49  +21      83.58     6.54    34.87     6.15    82.18    28.70P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   49  +14      79.05     6.43    22.00     1.58    57.96    15.94P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.13     6.36    17.63     0.89    50.60    12.23P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.32     5.63     7.14     0.01     8.76     1.73P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.08     6.10    22.04     0.18    28.66     7.55P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             30   42   +3      65.92     5.84     5.77     0.01     2.28     0.46P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      61.95     5.80    -9.64     0.00     0.47     0.07P    0.11R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      62.90     5.52     7.56     0.00     0.54     0.14P    0.03R    0.00  
Mansfield            30   40   +2      63.63     5.75     4.65     0.00     1.00     0.21P    0.04R    0.00  
Altrincham           29   40  -10      59.84     5.78   -14.88     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.29R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.13     7.27    14.51     0.46    29.77     7.95P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.11     5.79    -7.44     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.09R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.35     5.72    -0.19     0.00     0.00     0.00P    1.95R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.62     5.63   -14.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.14R    0.01  
Barrow               28   31  -10      51.28     6.03   -17.57     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.72R    0.01  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.36     5.69   -25.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.88R    0.03  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.52     6.06   -21.93     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.07R    0.03  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      49.16     5.77   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.34R    0.02  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.37     4.12   -60.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   87.60  
Northwich            29   16  -23      33.34     5.72   -33.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.35R   12.29  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4