Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 10 February 2009 at 22:06:32 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 February 2009, Tottenham vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   56  +31      87.21     4.62    48.76    80.00    95.69    99.35    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.91     4.59    39.44    16.11    69.27    92.40    99.06   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.87     4.95    22.59     0.87     8.49    31.18    80.89    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.40     4.73    43.58     2.99    25.98    72.73    94.38    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.15     4.90    20.02     0.03     0.53     3.90    21.09    95.13     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.84     5.14    10.71     0.00     0.03     0.44     4.40    72.65     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.23     5.05     4.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    13.24     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.60     5.09    -1.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.64     0.14R    0.01  
Man_City        24   31  +10      50.83     5.18    10.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     7.49     0.13R    0.01  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.77     5.39     2.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.24     0.31R    0.01  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.54     4.86   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     4.50R    0.33  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.19     4.94   -19.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     5.44R    0.48  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.89     4.84   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    13.52R    1.69  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.79     5.16   -11.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     5.37R    0.65  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.04     4.91    -9.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    16.75R    2.90  
Portsmouth      24   24  -16      38.96     5.23   -23.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    28.63R    6.84  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.11     4.97   -24.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.40R    8.18  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.20     4.86   -23.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.92R   13.75  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.09     4.47   -27.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.05R   31.96  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.50     4.67   -33.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.83R   33.19  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Birmingham vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    32   63  +22      89.21     5.21    33.70    38.24    77.67    99.79    83.14P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.10     5.17    48.36    51.81    84.63    99.90    90.35P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   57  +10      81.35     5.49    15.59     4.71    16.63    92.10    34.18P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.01     6.04    24.84     4.95    18.05    89.87    39.25P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      73.01     5.20    18.22     0.10     0.98    50.44    14.11P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          32   50   +4      71.69     5.38     7.81     0.02     0.39    37.09     7.52P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   48  +13      74.07     5.47    21.43     0.13     1.32    59.45    16.95P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     31   47   +4      67.81     5.48     4.44     0.00     0.08    15.88     3.17P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.60     5.56     5.73     0.00     0.11    19.76     4.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +0      68.21     5.69     0.82     0.01     0.09    17.40     2.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   43   +8      65.72     5.45    11.22     0.01     0.03     9.63     2.28P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        31   42   -9      59.20     5.48   -14.20     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.12P    0.74R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.61     6.14     5.58     0.00     0.03     6.79     1.52P    0.12R    0.00  
Coventry         31   40   -3      59.35     5.52    -4.59     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.17P    0.54R    0.00  
Blackpool        31   37   -9      55.22     5.48   -12.40     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.41R    0.13  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.32     5.71   -11.96     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    6.21R    0.27  
Plymouth         31   35   -9      52.02     5.31   -13.82     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   11.10R    0.42  
Nottm_Forest     31   34   -9      50.27     5.32   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.71R    0.91  
Doncaster        30   34  -11      50.56     5.37   -18.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   17.52R    0.90  
Norwich          32   32   -8      48.51     5.22   -12.61     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.08R    2.04  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.90     5.46   -19.43     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    27.85R    2.20  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.57     5.85   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.14R    1.14  
Southampton      31   28  -19      42.33     5.14   -28.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.53R   20.18  
Charlton         31   22  -23      36.55     5.12   -33.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.02R   71.81  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Brighton vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        30   68  +35     101.12     5.40    53.26    89.21    98.12    99.99    98.81P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   57  +26      89.51     5.90    41.17     8.12    59.47    98.45    72.03P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     29   53  +17      82.75     6.02    27.71     0.76    12.96    86.18    32.07P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.88     6.37    26.28     1.51    19.17    88.41    36.14P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           30   50  +11      76.88     5.86    18.66     0.04     1.95    55.35    15.05P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         27   50   +7      79.23     6.69    11.71     0.32     6.01    66.07    18.57P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            29   48  +13      75.73     6.14    19.99     0.04     1.71    48.36    13.40P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         29   47   +7      72.00     6.14     9.49     0.00     0.38    23.50     5.57P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        29   44  +11      71.34     5.98    17.30     0.00     0.20    22.03     6.01P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     30   44   -3      65.70     5.80    -3.63     0.00     0.01     3.80     0.72P    0.03R    0.00  
Colchester       29   42   +3      66.54     6.03     4.78     0.00     0.03     6.07     1.25P    0.04R    0.00  
Walsall          30   37   -5      58.93     5.75    -5.25     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    1.05R    0.00  
Hartlepool       29   35   -4      56.16     6.08    -8.26     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    4.11R    0.06  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.54     6.17   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    7.79R    0.13  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.97     6.68     2.09     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.20P    1.95R    0.01  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.68     6.33     0.85     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.07P    2.61R    0.02  
Carlisle         29   33   -9      54.90     6.06   -11.83     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    6.74R    0.10  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      53.02     6.11   -17.56     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   11.64R    0.17  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.79     6.42   -12.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.92R    0.60  
Brighton         28   28  -10      49.69     6.20   -14.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   25.08R    0.85  
Leyton_Orient    30   27  -16      44.28     5.56   -21.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.54R    5.80  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.78     6.14   -39.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.32R   20.38  
Hereford         27   21  -19      38.99     6.12   -31.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.31R   28.73  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.40     5.80   -48.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.88R   43.15  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Brentford; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Brentford            30   53  +18      80.65     5.66    26.72    15.59    49.02    90.31    60.28P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.10     6.09    26.60    34.25    69.62    95.64    76.74P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   50  +12      76.93     5.69    19.93     4.54    23.66    74.92    35.14P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   48  +16      76.89     6.26    22.97     6.95    27.20    73.07    36.79P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             29   48  +16      76.51     6.02    24.34     5.57    24.37    72.74    35.83P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.72     6.45    32.72    24.27    57.80    90.97    66.73P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               30   47   +8      69.92     5.76     9.76     0.36     3.28    27.81     8.28P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   46  +18      74.48     5.66    27.98     2.24    14.33    62.62    29.50P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           29   46   +1      68.54     6.00     0.12     0.27     2.38    20.46     5.08P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.64     6.16    35.89     5.86    27.20    75.06    41.41P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         29   38   +3      62.46     6.04     4.91     0.01     0.18     4.38     1.13P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.52     6.52     7.57     0.09     0.88    10.06     2.63P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.20     6.33   -15.30     0.00     0.06     1.16     0.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            29   33   -8      52.50     5.75   -13.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     0.12R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.85     5.79   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.26R    0.00  
Macclesfield         28   32  -22      50.09     5.88   -34.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.62R    0.01  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.22     5.86   -26.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.25R    0.06  
Accrington_Stanley   29   28  -13      47.78     6.02   -18.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.63R    0.09  
Rotherham            26   25   +6      55.19     6.90    10.38     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.22P    0.12R    0.01  
Chester              30   25  -24      39.70     5.23   -35.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.67R    1.77  
Grimsby              29   23  -21      40.31     5.67   -31.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.70R    1.93  
Barnet               29   23  -23      39.53     5.69   -34.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.42R    2.92  
Bournemouth          29   15   -8      36.66     6.05   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.40R    6.57  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.14     6.27   -12.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.81R   86.64  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 10 February 2009, Torquay vs Weymouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        31   71  +28      96.71     5.58    36.10    82.49    99.88    86.68P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               27   52  +15      84.55     6.63    25.02     7.60    83.05    25.34P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      76.91     5.77    18.45     0.31    42.29    10.89P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.42     5.71     9.11     0.02    12.96     2.30P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              27   49  +21      83.69     6.50    35.03     6.48    82.54    28.59P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              28   49  +14      79.25     6.34    22.26     1.56    59.00    16.20P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.03     6.43    17.51     0.96    49.84    12.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.35     5.58     7.13     0.01     8.35     1.58P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.02     6.07    21.96     0.14    27.76     7.37P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             30   42   +3      65.94     5.89     5.85     0.00     2.37     0.45P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      61.85     5.79    -9.80     0.00     0.41     0.06P    0.11R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      63.02     5.52     7.69     0.00     0.52     0.12P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield            30   40   +2      63.51     5.74     4.50     0.00     0.85     0.18P    0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           29   40  -10      59.83     5.83   -14.90     0.00     0.23     0.02P    0.28R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.16     7.22    14.54     0.44    29.90     8.03P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.12     5.77    -7.48     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.05R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.40     5.72    -0.08     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.85R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.73     5.58   -14.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.18R    0.00  
Barrow               28   31  -10      51.15     6.01   -17.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.87R    0.01  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.25     5.65   -25.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.52R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.37     6.06   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.74R    0.02  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      49.05     5.81   -19.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.08R    0.04  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.39     4.13   -60.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.97R   87.76  
Northwich            29   16  -23      33.36     5.70   -33.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.30R   12.14  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4