Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 9 February 2009 at 22:06:20 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 February 2009, Tottenham vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   56  +31      87.22     4.56    48.71    80.32    95.65    99.37    99.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.79     4.65    39.20    15.67    68.00    92.28    98.94   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.75     4.95    22.44     0.81     8.31    30.35    80.60    99.67     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.57     4.71    43.77     3.19    27.47    73.77    94.89    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.08     4.89    19.86     0.02     0.55     3.73    20.57    95.00     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.95     5.16    10.88     0.00     0.02     0.49     4.75    73.01     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.18     5.05     4.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    13.01     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.54     5.12    -1.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     5.63     0.14R    0.01  
Man_City        24   31  +10      50.88     5.23    11.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     7.74     0.12R    0.00  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.78     5.36     2.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.08     0.29R    0.02  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.61     4.87   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     4.29R    0.27  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.17     4.95   -19.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21     5.39R    0.49  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.89     4.84   -16.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    13.62R    1.68  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.73     5.14   -11.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24     5.74R    0.58  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.07     4.91    -9.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    16.67R    2.83  
Portsmouth      24   24  -16      38.89     5.24   -23.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    29.05R    7.13  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.19     4.98   -24.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    32.87R    8.12  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.22     4.88   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    46.95R   13.68  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.12     4.48   -27.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.89R   31.63  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.48     4.69   -33.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.95R   33.58  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Birmingham vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    32   63  +22      89.17     5.21    33.65    37.22    77.03    99.80    82.65P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.18     5.17    48.47    52.40    84.95    99.91    90.64P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   57  +10      81.35     5.55    15.58     4.79    16.55    91.99    33.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.17     6.07    25.07     5.28    18.54    90.25    39.93P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      72.94     5.18    18.11     0.09     0.79    50.20    13.96P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          32   50   +4      71.61     5.37     7.72     0.04     0.37    36.55     7.26P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   48  +13      74.00     5.50    21.33     0.15     1.37    59.26    16.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     31   47   +4      67.90     5.50     4.54     0.01     0.10    16.51     3.33P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.53     5.50     5.65     0.00     0.14    19.37     4.31P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +0      68.27     5.67     0.91     0.01     0.10    17.74     2.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   43   +8      65.63     5.41    11.13     0.00     0.03     9.73     2.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        31   42   -9      59.24     5.43   -14.10     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.11P    0.69R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.64     6.12     5.61     0.00     0.03     6.86     1.66P    0.10R    0.00  
Coventry         31   40   -3      59.30     5.49    -4.65     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.13P    0.63R    0.01  
Blackpool        31   37   -9      55.24     5.43   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    4.18R    0.12  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.41     5.71   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    6.23R    0.24  
Plymouth         31   35   -9      52.14     5.31   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   10.45R    0.43  
Nottm_Forest     31   34   -9      50.27     5.33   -15.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.77R    0.97  
Doncaster        30   34  -11      50.57     5.37   -18.01     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    17.41R    0.90  
Norwich          32   32   -8      48.50     5.20   -12.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.39R    1.93  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.86     5.44   -19.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.09R    2.23  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.49     5.88   -12.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.46R    1.18  
Southampton      31   28  -19      42.28     5.15   -28.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.57R   20.36  
Charlton         31   22  -23      36.50     5.15   -34.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.00R   71.64  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 February 2009, Leeds vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        30   68  +35     101.03     5.45    53.18    89.37    98.22   100.00    98.89P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   57  +26      89.43     5.90    41.07     7.94    61.47    98.65    73.46P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.91     6.33    26.32     1.69    20.09    89.37    37.37P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     28   50  +15      81.02     6.29    25.36     0.55     9.35    80.02    27.80P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           30   50  +11      76.75     5.86    18.50     0.05     2.32    56.01    15.44P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         27   50   +7      79.16     6.68    11.61     0.34     5.96    67.40    18.32P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            29   48  +13      75.88     6.10    20.18     0.05     1.95    51.48    15.04P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        29   44  +11      71.26     6.02    17.23     0.00     0.29    23.17     6.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         28   44   +6      69.63     6.38     7.36     0.00     0.24    15.71     3.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     30   44   -3      65.52     5.83    -3.90     0.00     0.02     3.92     0.68P    0.05R    0.00  
Colchester       28   42   +4      68.42     6.33     6.53     0.00     0.09    12.11     2.62P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          29   36   -5      59.19     6.06    -5.53     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.10P    1.49R    0.01  
Hartlepool       29   35   -4      56.26     6.03    -8.14     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    4.33R    0.04  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.58     6.19   -18.68     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    8.42R    0.12  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.85     6.67     1.86     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.20P    2.22R    0.02  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.89     6.40     1.19     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.08P    2.75R    0.01  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      53.02     6.14   -17.56     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   12.26R    0.25  
Carlisle         28   32   -9      55.45     6.40   -11.50     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    7.00R    0.12  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.73     6.45   -12.75     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.74R    0.73  
Brighton         27   28   -8      51.37     6.50   -12.22     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   19.00R    0.64  
Leyton_Orient    30   27  -16      44.34     5.53   -21.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.77R    5.60  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.66     6.12   -39.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.59R   21.24  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.18     6.15   -31.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.38R   28.14  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.44     5.87   -47.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.97R   43.08  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Bournemouth vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.22     6.08    26.70    33.50    69.43    96.05    76.65P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            29   52  +18      81.61     5.87    27.45    19.21    54.31    92.38    64.58P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   50  +12      76.82     5.67    19.73     3.87    22.39    75.38    34.24P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   48  +16      76.75     6.26    22.71     6.16    25.70    73.26    35.49P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             29   48  +16      76.46     6.08    24.22     5.14    23.58    73.02    35.29P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.98     6.38    33.00    24.11    58.60    92.03    68.06P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   46  +18      74.47     5.66    27.91     1.83    13.72    63.53    29.53P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           29   46   +1      68.49     6.00    -0.04     0.22     2.17    20.98     5.11P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               29   44   +4      67.98     6.01     5.41     0.19     1.91    19.39     5.17P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.69     6.19    35.98     5.68    27.06    75.89    41.28P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.33     6.55     7.13     0.08     0.79    10.06     2.69P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   37   +3      62.76     6.33     4.80     0.01     0.27     5.80     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.13     6.32   -15.46     0.00     0.04     1.18     0.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Morecambe            28   32   -8      52.80     6.00   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.17R    0.01  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.73     5.72   -16.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.21R    0.00  
Macclesfield         27   32  -18      51.70     6.22   -30.09     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.40R    0.02  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.42     5.94   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.12R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   28   27  -13      47.71     6.17   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.75R    0.10  
Rotherham            26   25   +6      55.49     6.93    10.81     0.00     0.02     0.81     0.26P    0.17R    0.01  
Chester              30   25  -24      39.66     5.26   -35.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.24R    1.86  
Grimsby              28   22  -21      40.05     5.93   -31.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.82R    2.49  
Barnet               28   22  -23      40.08     5.94   -34.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.95R    2.69  
Bournemouth          29   15   -8      36.90     6.09   -10.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    37.46R    6.39  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.19     6.29   -12.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.71R   86.37  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 9 February 2009, Burton_Albion vs Rushden_&_D'monds; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        31   71  +28      96.75     5.59    36.13    81.11    99.88    85.66P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               27   52  +15      84.60     6.59    25.09     7.17    82.24    24.25P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      76.83     5.74    18.33     0.27    39.55    10.00P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.39     5.69     9.06     0.01    11.80     2.19P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              27   49  +21      83.66     6.52    34.96     5.87    81.23    27.71P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.11     6.56    26.59     4.17    73.22    22.61P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.06     6.41    17.56     0.83    47.82    11.30P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.15     5.59     6.86     0.01     7.10     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.03     6.03    21.98     0.12    26.20     6.66P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.01     5.82    -9.53     0.00     0.39     0.07P    0.09R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    31   40   +4      62.97     5.50     7.67     0.00     0.42     0.10P    0.03R    0.00  
Mansfield            30   40   +2      63.59     5.73     4.59     0.00     0.77     0.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham           29   40  -10      59.71     5.75   -15.12     0.00     0.16     0.03P    0.28R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.25     7.31    14.71     0.44    28.52     7.74P    0.00R    0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.84     6.04     1.51     0.00     0.70     0.16P    0.09R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.18     5.79    -7.37     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.12R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.62     5.72     0.22     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.61R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.63     5.62   -14.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.95R    0.00  
Barrow               28   31  -10      50.99     6.00   -18.07     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.12R    0.01  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.28     5.68   -25.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.52R    0.04  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.40     6.03   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.24R    0.03  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      49.10     5.77   -19.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.59R    0.02  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.38     4.13   -60.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   87.79  
Northwich            29   16  -23      33.37     5.70   -33.28     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.35R   12.11  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4