Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 8 February 2009 at 22:07:16 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 8 February 2009, Tottenham vs Arsenal; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         24   56  +31      87.31     4.56    48.86    80.84    95.76    99.39    99.95   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.81     4.63    39.23    15.36    68.15    92.11    98.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.79     4.92    22.48     0.73     8.36    30.94    80.88    99.71     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.49     4.73    43.67     3.06    27.24    73.33    94.84    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         25   44  +13      66.08     4.88    19.91     0.01     0.48     3.81    20.84    95.11     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.87     5.17    10.75     0.00     0.01     0.41     4.36    72.51     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.20     5.06     4.40     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11    13.39     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        25   33   -1      50.52     5.11    -1.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     5.59     0.14R    0.01  
Man_City        24   31  +10      50.86     5.23    10.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     7.80     0.15R    0.00  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.68     5.37     2.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     4.98     0.33R    0.01  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.67     4.90   -12.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32     4.25R    0.28  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.05     4.95   -19.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     5.65R    0.47  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.95     4.81   -15.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    13.24R    1.75  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.83     5.12   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.26     5.41R    0.63  
Tottenham       25   25   -5      40.03     4.92    -9.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    16.98R    3.01  
Portsmouth      24   24  -16      38.91     5.23   -23.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    29.06R    7.14  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.11     4.98   -24.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.94R    8.21  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.31     4.89   -23.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.38R   13.21  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.20     4.49   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.55R   31.41  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.49     4.72   -33.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.89R   33.87  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Birmingham vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    32   63  +22      89.21     5.19    33.75    37.80    77.89    99.82    83.32P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.16     5.19    48.47    52.63    84.93    99.87    90.80P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   57  +10      81.27     5.53    15.46     4.38    16.22    91.79    33.59P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      80.99     6.02    24.82     4.87    17.78    89.92    38.92P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      72.90     5.22    18.05     0.09     0.84    49.59    14.05P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          32   50   +4      71.77     5.40     7.93     0.04     0.46    37.76     7.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   48  +13      74.06     5.47    21.40     0.15     1.45    59.54    16.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     31   47   +4      67.96     5.47     4.65     0.00     0.08    16.25     3.11P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.59     5.50     5.71     0.00     0.15    19.51     4.27P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +0      68.18     5.73     0.73     0.02     0.15    17.32     3.04P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   43   +8      65.76     5.47    11.32     0.00     0.02    10.09     2.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        31   42   -9      59.03     5.41   -14.40     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.09P    0.69R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.65     6.13     5.63     0.00     0.03     6.82     1.63P    0.10R    0.00  
Coventry         31   40   -3      59.19     5.50    -4.79     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.12P    0.67R    0.01  
Blackpool        31   37   -9      55.22     5.45   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    4.44R    0.11  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.43     5.75   -11.79     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    6.26R    0.24  
Plymouth         31   35   -9      52.08     5.29   -13.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.62R    0.44  
Nottm_Forest     31   34   -9      50.32     5.35   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   18.48R    0.94  
Doncaster        30   34  -11      50.49     5.38   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.10R    0.98  
Norwich          32   32   -8      48.59     5.25   -12.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   25.78R    1.99  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.96     5.49   -19.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.61R    2.34  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.52     5.83   -12.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    15.40R    1.12  
Southampton      31   28  -19      42.24     5.13   -29.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.10R   20.40  
Charlton         31   22  -23      36.55     5.16   -33.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.72R   71.42  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Hartlepool vs Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        30   68  +35     100.98     5.44    53.07    88.76    97.95   100.00    98.69P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   57  +26      89.49     5.91    41.15     8.02    59.47    98.73    72.00P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.99     6.32    26.39     1.75    19.16    89.81    36.49P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     28   50  +15      81.01     6.39    25.32     0.58     9.00    79.92    27.51P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           30   50  +11      76.76     5.89    18.49     0.02     2.05    57.06    15.56P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         26   50   +9      81.33     6.91    14.79     0.85    10.78    77.69    25.44P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            28   45  +11      73.76     6.40    17.38     0.02     1.01    37.96    10.06P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        29   44  +11      71.27     5.98    17.24     0.00     0.24    23.47     6.45P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         28   44   +6      69.63     6.44     7.39     0.00     0.21    16.04     3.74P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     30   44   -3      65.63     5.78    -3.79     0.00     0.02     4.09     0.70P    0.04R    0.00  
Colchester       28   42   +4      68.53     6.38     6.69     0.00     0.09    12.95     2.89P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          29   36   -5      59.14     6.06    -5.56     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.06P    1.51R    0.00  
Hartlepool       29   35   -4      56.26     6.11    -8.11     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    4.44R    0.05  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.44     6.16   -18.84     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    8.56R    0.13  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      59.16     6.70     2.41     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.25P    1.96R    0.02  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.73     6.33     0.90     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.09P    2.71R    0.03  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      53.02     6.09   -17.56     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.86R    0.19  
Carlisle         28   32   -9      55.33     6.38   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    7.06R    0.14  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.67     6.45   -12.87     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   17.81R    0.70  
Brighton         27   28   -8      51.01     6.44   -12.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   19.98R    0.71  
Leyton_Orient    30   27  -16      44.31     5.54   -21.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.76R    5.63  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.68     6.16   -39.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.13R   21.31  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.14     6.13   -31.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.40R   28.11  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.48     5.88   -47.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.74R   42.98  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Bournemouth vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.19     6.08    26.68    33.42    69.16    96.06    76.43P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            29   52  +18      81.79     5.89    27.73    19.73    55.67    92.70    65.69P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   50  +12      76.85     5.72    19.73     4.02    22.22    75.15    34.09P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   48  +16      76.82     6.28    22.80     6.41    25.83    73.35    35.79P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             29   48  +16      76.44     6.03    24.20     4.81    23.51    73.19    35.28P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.87     6.43    32.86    23.42    57.78    91.54    66.89P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   46  +18      74.54     5.60    28.05     1.83    13.48    63.99    29.33P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           29   46   +1      68.42     5.98    -0.11     0.21     1.99    20.53     4.84P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               29   44   +4      67.97     5.96     5.35     0.15     1.70    18.87     4.86P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.87     6.21    36.24     5.94    27.58    76.68    42.24P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.39     6.53     7.27     0.05     0.77    10.10     2.64P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   37   +3      62.78     6.29     4.83     0.01     0.24     5.64     1.45P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.36     6.32   -15.06     0.00     0.04     1.26     0.19P    0.02R    0.00  
Morecambe            28   32   -8      52.78     6.00   -13.96     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.15R    0.01  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.72     5.72   -16.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.20R    0.00  
Macclesfield         27   32  -18      51.87     6.15   -29.79     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    0.41R    0.02  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.32     5.92   -26.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.17R    0.06  
Accrington_Stanley   28   27  -13      47.54     6.20   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.08R    0.15  
Rotherham            26   25   +6      55.34     6.91    10.61     0.00     0.02     0.69     0.23P    0.17R    0.00  
Chester              30   25  -24      39.65     5.24   -35.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.52R    1.83  
Grimsby              28   22  -21      39.90     5.92   -32.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.21R    2.68  
Barnet               28   22  -23      40.15     5.95   -34.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.19R    2.62  
Bournemouth          29   15   -8      36.69     6.06   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.42R    6.38  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.17     6.27   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.46R   86.27  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Lewes vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.86     5.88    32.61    72.49    99.51    78.45P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               27   52  +15      84.34     6.66    24.69     9.54    80.30    25.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      76.98     5.74    18.54     0.47    40.26    10.33P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.39     5.71     9.09     0.03    11.68     2.09P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              27   49  +21      83.89     6.51    35.38     8.88    81.77    30.42P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.46     6.60    27.12     6.41    74.53    25.37P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.15     6.35    17.70     1.34    48.16    12.07P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.24     5.60     6.98     0.02     7.29     1.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.10     6.07    22.11     0.22    26.36     6.82P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.01     5.83    -9.51     0.00     0.40     0.06P    0.11R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    30   40   +7      64.65     5.78    11.08     0.00     1.18     0.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield            30   40   +2      63.41     5.72     4.33     0.00     0.72     0.17P    0.03R    0.00  
Altrincham           29   40  -10      59.64     5.78   -15.23     0.00     0.15     0.03P    0.33R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      73.98     7.27    14.32     0.59    27.00     7.17P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.77     6.08     1.36     0.00     0.67     0.14P    0.05R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.37     5.84    -7.09     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.93R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.51     5.72     0.08     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.67R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.74     5.66   -14.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.47R    0.01  
Barrow               28   31  -10      51.12     5.97   -17.84     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.55R    0.01  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.09     5.68   -25.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.65R    0.04  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.39     6.04   -22.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.91R    0.01  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      48.98     5.79   -19.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.80R    0.03  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.40     4.12   -60.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.99R   87.22  
Northwich            29   16  -23      33.16     5.67   -33.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.51R   12.68  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4