Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 7 February 2009 at 22:06:18 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Blackburn vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       25   54  +25      80.85     4.66    39.29    18.57    68.51    91.49    98.67   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         23   53  +30      86.44     4.81    49.07    76.10    93.72    98.84    99.87   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     25   51  +16      72.90     4.96    22.71     1.12     8.59    30.65    78.09    99.65     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         25   49  +29      76.54     4.74    43.70     4.13    28.09    72.57    93.62    99.94     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   43  +13      66.93     5.20    20.66     0.09     1.07     5.95    25.22    95.62     0.00     0.00  
Everton         25   40   +6      60.92     5.18    10.83     0.00     0.01     0.48     4.27    72.11     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           25   34   +2      53.10     5.07     4.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    12.33     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        24   33   +0      51.14     5.27    -1.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     7.01     0.12R    0.01  
Man_City        24   31  +10      50.82     5.27    10.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     7.62     0.15R    0.00  
Fulham          23   30   +3      49.51     5.40     2.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     4.76     0.37R    0.02  
Sunderland      25   30   -6      43.69     4.89   -12.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28     4.18R    0.28  
Hull            25   29  -15      44.18     4.96   -19.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23     5.33R    0.44  
Newcastle       25   27   -9      40.87     4.82   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    13.74R    1.61  
Bolton          25   27  -10      43.81     5.17   -11.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29     5.48R    0.62  
Tottenham       24   24   -5      39.91     5.19   -10.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    18.94R    3.65  
Portsmouth      24   24  -16      38.92     5.23   -23.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    28.84R    6.81  
Stoke           25   24  -19      38.21     5.05   -24.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    33.35R    8.27  
Blackburn       24   23  -13      36.32     4.88   -23.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    45.94R   13.31  
Middlesbrough   25   22  -18      33.17     4.48   -27.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.44R   31.62  
West_Brom       25   22  -23      33.56     4.72   -33.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.08R   33.36  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Birmingham vs Burnley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    32   63  +22      89.18     5.20    33.66    38.36    77.68    99.79    83.14P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          31   59  +32      90.05     5.16    48.30    51.73    84.75    99.90    90.56P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       31   57  +10      81.20     5.50    15.37     4.45    16.12    91.78    33.11P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.01     6.07    24.84     5.12    18.26    89.67    39.05P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        32   51  +14      73.02     5.20    18.23     0.08     0.90    50.67    14.47P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          32   50   +4      71.70     5.36     7.82     0.05     0.41    37.23     7.72P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          31   48  +13      74.11     5.49    21.51     0.17     1.46    60.07    17.27P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     31   47   +4      67.81     5.50     4.43     0.01     0.09    15.77     3.17P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              31   47   +4      68.39     5.51     5.49     0.01     0.14    18.73     4.17P    0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          31   47   +0      68.37     5.72     1.03     0.01     0.13    18.19     3.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich          31   43   +8      65.69     5.44    11.24     0.00     0.02     9.56     2.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        31   42   -9      59.32     5.48   -13.99     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.10P    0.65R    0.01  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.55     6.14     5.47     0.00     0.04     6.74     1.56P    0.10R    0.00  
Coventry         31   40   -3      59.36     5.52    -4.59     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.16P    0.68R    0.01  
Blackpool        31   37   -9      55.23     5.44   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    4.18R    0.10  
Derby            30   35   -8      54.39     5.70   -11.85     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    6.22R    0.26  
Plymouth         31   35   -9      51.99     5.32   -13.89     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   11.43R    0.49  
Nottm_Forest     31   34   -9      50.22     5.33   -15.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.25R    0.98  
Doncaster        30   34  -11      50.75     5.39   -17.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.65R    0.97  
Norwich          32   32   -8      48.54     5.23   -12.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.93R    2.01  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.83     5.46   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.38R    2.37  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.49     5.87   -12.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.46R    1.21  
Southampton      31   28  -19      42.36     5.14   -28.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.19R   20.23  
Charlton         31   22  -23      36.60     5.17   -33.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.87R   71.37  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Hartlepool vs Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        30   68  +35     101.04     5.40    53.19    89.10    98.06   100.00    98.76P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   57  +26      89.43     5.95    41.08     7.94    59.10    98.58    71.74P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.96     6.37    26.41     1.64    19.31    89.78    36.68P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     28   50  +15      81.02     6.31    25.35     0.52     8.89    80.49    27.61P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           30   50  +11      76.82     5.90    18.57     0.04     2.16    57.50    15.63P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         26   50   +9      81.21     6.96    14.62     0.75    10.91    76.97    25.65P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            28   45  +11      73.78     6.37    17.42     0.02     1.03    38.52    10.21P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        29   44  +11      71.21     6.02    17.12     0.00     0.23    23.11     6.17P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         28   44   +6      69.64     6.41     7.35     0.00     0.20    16.15     3.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     30   44   -3      65.61     5.81    -3.81     0.00     0.02     4.02     0.69P    0.02R    0.00  
Colchester       28   42   +4      68.50     6.32     6.65     0.00     0.11    12.68     2.73P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall          29   36   -5      59.19     6.08    -5.51     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.10P    1.51R    0.02  
Hartlepool       29   35   -4      56.31     6.11    -7.98     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.05P    4.26R    0.05  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.50     6.18   -18.75     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P    8.48R    0.14  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.77     6.70     1.69     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.18P    2.31R    0.02  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.90     6.31     1.18     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.12P    2.42R    0.01  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      53.11     6.11   -17.43     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   11.72R    0.20  
Carlisle         28   32   -9      55.32     6.35   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    6.90R    0.09  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.74     6.43   -12.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   17.68R    0.63  
Brighton         27   28   -8      51.05     6.45   -12.71     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.10R    0.65  
Leyton_Orient    30   27  -16      44.24     5.54   -21.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.47R    5.72  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.76     6.17   -39.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.98R   20.90  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.24     6.18   -30.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.02R   27.89  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.41     5.87   -47.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.10R   43.69  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Bournemouth vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.02     6.09    26.45    32.49    68.35    95.90    75.78P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            29   52  +18      81.69     5.86    27.58    19.49    55.18    92.74    65.19P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 30   50  +12      76.83     5.71    19.74     4.11    22.77    75.29    34.44P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   48  +16      76.72     6.31    22.63     6.44    25.54    72.95    35.44P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             29   48  +16      76.37     6.09    24.08     5.00    23.47    72.49    35.16P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.90     6.49    32.92    24.19    57.94    91.66    67.41P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           30   46  +18      74.40     5.64    27.83     1.75    13.58    62.85    28.86P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           29   46   +1      68.46     6.00    -0.09     0.20     2.20    20.87     5.25P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               29   44   +4      68.11     6.04     5.57     0.17     1.96    19.84     5.48P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.83     6.20    36.15     6.08    27.73    76.57    42.27P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.50     6.57     7.45     0.07     0.92    10.40     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   37   +3      62.85     6.36     4.89     0.01     0.31     6.00     1.50P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.24     6.42   -15.27     0.00     0.04     1.39     0.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            28   32   -8      52.94     6.00   -13.75     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.16R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.83     5.74   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P    0.21R    0.01  
Macclesfield         27   32  -18      51.71     6.17   -30.01     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.34R    0.02  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.29     5.91   -26.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    1.25R    0.07  
Accrington_Stanley   28   27  -13      47.49     6.15   -19.28     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.01R    0.16  
Rotherham            26   25   +6      55.49     6.86    10.81     0.00     0.01     0.77     0.22P    0.13R    0.00  
Chester              30   25  -24      39.69     5.32   -35.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.84R    1.84  
Grimsby              28   22  -21      40.03     5.95   -31.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.40R    2.63  
Barnet               28   22  -23      40.09     5.98   -34.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.91R    2.88  
Bournemouth          29   15   -8      36.70     6.06   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.41R    6.82  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.27     6.29   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.32R   85.56  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 7 February 2009, Lewes vs Wrexham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.86     5.89    32.66    72.10    99.43    78.20P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               27   52  +15      84.40     6.62    24.82     9.59    81.04    26.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      77.00     5.79    18.55     0.50    40.72    10.38P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.43     5.65     9.12     0.02    11.38     2.01P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              27   49  +21      84.08     6.53    35.66     9.42    82.75    31.09P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.33     6.59    26.89     6.14    74.28    24.61P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.06     6.36    17.57     1.35    47.44    11.67P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.19     5.61     6.92     0.04     7.22     1.32P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      73.96     6.02    21.89     0.24    25.34     6.62P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.12     5.80    -9.38     0.00     0.39     0.07P    0.13R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    30   40   +7      64.73     5.70    11.17     0.00     1.16     0.32P    0.02R    0.00  
Mansfield            30   40   +2      63.50     5.73     4.49     0.00     0.79     0.17P    0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham           29   40  -10      59.65     5.82   -15.20     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.32R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.00     7.27    14.37     0.60    27.13     7.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.79     6.03     1.44     0.00     0.70     0.13P    0.06R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.30     5.79    -7.15     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.91R    0.00  
York                 31   33   -3      55.56     5.71     0.15     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.62R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.62     5.63   -14.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.57R    0.00  
Barrow               28   31  -10      51.04     6.00   -18.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.80R    0.00  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.11     5.67   -25.81     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.16R    0.04  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.27     6.06   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.77R    0.01  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      48.99     5.80   -19.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.46R    0.02  
Lewes                31   17  -41      25.41     4.10   -60.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.98R   87.32  
Northwich            29   16  -23      33.26     5.73   -33.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.19R   12.59  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4