Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 6 February 2009 at 22:07:33 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 February 2009, Liverpool vs Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         23   53  +30      86.54     4.79    49.31    73.99    92.02    98.97    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   51  +24      80.55     4.82    40.15    16.14    57.85    91.06    98.53   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         24   48  +29      78.78     4.83    47.42     9.22    44.14    85.91    97.21    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     24   48  +14      71.37     5.24    20.82     0.59     5.09    18.99    71.10    99.12     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   43  +13      66.85     5.17    20.45     0.06     0.89     4.89    29.49    95.94     0.00     0.00  
Everton         24   37   +3      58.99     5.51     7.25     0.00     0.01     0.15     3.14    59.24     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           24   33   +2      53.72     5.32     4.57     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33    19.51     0.04R    0.00  
West_Ham        24   33   +0      51.09     5.30    -1.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     9.11     0.15R    0.01  
Fulham          22   29   +3      49.60     5.60     1.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     6.95     0.52R    0.04  
Man_City        23   28   +9      50.12     5.43    11.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     7.85     0.43R    0.03  
Hull            24   28  -15      42.98     5.06   -23.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21    10.09R    1.49  
Bolton          24   27   -7      45.59     5.44    -8.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.53     3.57R    0.38  
Sunderland      24   27   -8      41.82     5.09   -14.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24    11.78R    1.59  
Tottenham       24   24   -5      40.13     5.17    -9.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    19.18R    3.99  
Newcastle       24   24  -10      39.22     5.12   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    25.69R    5.95  
Portsmouth      23   24  -15      39.08     5.36   -24.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    30.28R    8.21  
Stoke           24   24  -17      39.78     5.32   -22.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    25.24R    6.17  
Blackburn       23   23  -11      37.56     5.17   -22.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    38.63R   11.04  
Middlesbrough   24   22  -17      33.73     4.72   -27.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.50R   32.69  
West_Brom       24   22  -22      34.72     5.01   -32.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.89R   28.43  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 February 2009, Bristol_City vs Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    31   63  +23      91.16     5.46    35.70    41.78    81.27    99.91    85.99P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          30   58  +32      91.54     5.36    50.40    50.51    85.69    99.90    91.15P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   56  +10      82.26     5.79    16.34     4.29    16.42    93.07    33.78P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        31   51  +15      75.64     5.44    20.98     0.25     1.89    68.87    20.79P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.13     6.03    25.02     3.10    13.66    90.10    35.86P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          31   49   +4      70.91     5.56     5.89     0.02     0.26    31.57     5.85P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              30   46   +4      68.95     5.70     5.79     0.00     0.13    21.54     4.87P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          30   46   +0      67.77     5.90    -0.43     0.01     0.11    16.10     2.53P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          30   45  +10      71.91     5.74    17.59     0.02     0.42    42.82    10.92P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     30   44   +3      65.95     5.74     3.01     0.00     0.03    10.26     1.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          30   43  +11      67.62     5.69    15.09     0.01     0.10    18.13     4.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.66     6.11     5.65     0.00     0.02     6.55     1.47P    0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        30   39  -10      56.49     5.54   -16.82     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P    2.48R    0.04  
Coventry         30   37   -4      56.86     5.73    -6.94     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    2.09R    0.03  
Blackpool        30   37   -8      57.20     5.74   -10.39     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.06P    2.21R    0.05  
Plymouth         30   35   -6      54.73     5.63    -8.83     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    4.21R    0.16  
Nottm_Forest     30   33   -9      50.43     5.55   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.56R    1.09  
Norwich          31   32   -7      50.30     5.52   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.85R    1.09  
Derby            29   32  -11      51.44     5.87   -16.85     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   15.58R    1.21  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.81     5.42   -19.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.57R    2.26  
Doncaster        29   31  -12      47.93     5.45   -20.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.20R    2.99  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.75     5.81   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.36R    1.05  
Southampton      31   28  -19      42.49     5.16   -28.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.52R   19.46  
Charlton         31   22  -23      36.64     5.16   -33.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.25R   70.56  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 February 2009, Huddersfield vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        29   67  +35     102.20     5.69    54.69    90.94    98.36    99.99    98.94P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   57  +26      89.52     5.90    41.21     6.55    59.50    98.69    72.30P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.92     6.37    26.30     1.24    18.81    89.38    36.32P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     28   50  +15      81.05     6.27    25.43     0.41     8.62    80.37    27.84P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         26   50   +9      81.36     7.01    14.84     0.80    11.11    76.90    25.62P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           29   49  +11      76.15     6.06    16.95     0.03     1.85    51.92    13.55P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            28   45  +11      73.78     6.37    17.39     0.02     0.97    38.23    10.13P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        29   44  +11      71.18     6.01    17.08     0.00     0.23    23.08     6.23P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     30   44   -3      65.48     5.81    -3.98     0.00     0.01     3.75     0.65P    0.03R    0.00  
Tranmere         27   43   +6      71.09     6.65     8.91     0.01     0.44    22.60     5.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       28   42   +4      68.53     6.32     6.65     0.00     0.10    12.63     2.81P    0.01R    0.00  
Walsall          28   35   -5      58.99     6.29    -6.44     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.12P    1.82R    0.00  
Hartlepool       28   34   -4      56.94     6.28    -7.52     0.00     0.00     0.28     0.06P    3.68R    0.03  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.40     6.16   -18.95     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    8.62R    0.16  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.88     6.67     1.90     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.20P    2.12R    0.02  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.81     6.32     1.07     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.10P    2.60R    0.03  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      52.96     6.11   -17.60     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   12.49R    0.23  
Carlisle         28   32   -9      55.55     6.36   -11.43     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    6.54R    0.13  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.64     6.38   -12.98     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.62R    0.67  
Brighton         27   28   -8      51.35     6.42   -12.31     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   18.32R    0.62  
Leyton_Orient    29   26  -16      44.05     5.80   -22.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.40R    6.80  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.72     6.15   -39.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.46R   21.19  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.13     6.12   -31.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.55R   27.72  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.52     5.87   -47.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.73R   42.39  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 February 2009, Chester vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.13     6.07    26.59    33.87    68.61    95.67    75.87P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            28   49  +15      80.49     6.09    25.28    15.47    46.66    87.73    57.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 29   49  +12      77.40     5.96    19.99     5.88    26.70    75.92    37.97P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   48  +16      77.03     6.30    23.13     7.05    27.19    73.19    37.11P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.77     6.41    32.67    23.23    56.67    90.86    66.10P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           29   46  +19      76.55     5.87    30.03     4.69    23.88    74.15    39.43P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   46   +3      70.66     6.28     3.26     0.71     5.18    31.94     9.55P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             28   45  +14      74.01     6.37    20.92     2.70    14.03    56.15    23.79P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.72     6.17    35.96     6.02    27.18    74.51    41.56P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   43   +4      68.88     6.23     6.19     0.29     2.72    22.91     6.54P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.42     6.50     7.29     0.08     0.82     9.69     2.61P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   37   +3      62.81     6.30     4.87     0.01     0.29     5.28     1.38P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.35     6.38   -15.06     0.01     0.05     1.26     0.25P    0.02R    0.00  
Morecambe            28   32   -8      52.84     6.06   -13.88     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.12R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.69     5.77   -16.81     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.17R    0.01  
Macclesfield         27   32  -18      51.77     6.25   -29.92     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.03P    0.26R    0.01  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.51     5.92   -25.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P    0.92R    0.03  
Accrington_Stanley   28   27  -13      47.37     6.20   -19.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.67R    0.13  
Rotherham            27   26   +6      54.97     6.63    10.58     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.14P    0.09R    0.01  
Chester              29   25  -21      40.62     5.46   -33.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.08R    1.20  
Barnet               28   22  -23      40.09     5.96   -34.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.36R    2.43  
Grimsby              27   21  -21      39.81     6.13   -32.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.85R    2.63  
Bournemouth          28   12   -9      34.20     6.26   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.74R   12.10  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.15     6.31   -12.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.73R   81.46  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 February 2009, Altrincham vs Northwich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.83     5.88    32.60    72.89    99.48    78.82P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               27   52  +15      84.50     6.65    24.95    10.07    81.51    26.54P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      77.00     5.72    18.56     0.47    40.77    10.66P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.45     5.69     9.14     0.01    12.02     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.37     6.57    26.97     6.44    74.71    24.88P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.23     6.38    17.81     1.31    48.67    12.07P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.31     5.62     7.13     0.03     7.58     1.33P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.09     6.07    22.08     0.27    26.31     7.02P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              26   46  +19      83.13     6.71    34.82     7.91    78.58    28.32P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      61.98     5.81    -9.52     0.00     0.44     0.07P    0.08R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    30   40   +7      64.65     5.77    11.10     0.00     1.21     0.27P    0.02R    0.00  
Altrincham           29   40  -10      59.62     5.79   -15.28     0.00     0.19     0.04P    0.34R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      73.98     7.31    14.32     0.60    27.34     7.55P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.86     6.07     1.51     0.00     0.70     0.17P    0.08R    0.00  
Mansfield            29   37   +1      61.90     6.01     3.45     0.00     0.46     0.10P    0.12R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.16     5.77    -7.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.04R    0.00  
York                 30   33   -2      56.70     5.97     0.79     0.00     0.02     0.01P    1.36R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.62     5.60   -14.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.94R    0.01  
Barrow               28   31  -10      50.97     5.94   -18.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.17R    0.02  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.26     5.64   -25.43     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.42R    0.07  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.48     6.03   -21.97     0.00     0.00     0.00P   26.78R    0.04  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      48.89     5.82   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.61R    0.03  
Lewes                30   17  -39      25.91     4.31   -60.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.95R   85.63  
Northwich            29   16  -23      33.37     5.73   -33.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.07R   14.20  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4