Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 5 February 2009 at 22:05:56 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 February 2009, Liverpool vs Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         23   53  +30      86.62     4.76    49.40    74.79    92.31    98.99    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   51  +24      80.46     4.84    39.99    15.67    57.47    90.61    98.46   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         24   48  +29      78.69     4.82    47.33     8.90    43.98    85.60    97.07    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     24   48  +14      71.41     5.29    20.92     0.60     5.37    19.59    70.63    99.10     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   43  +13      66.92     5.15    20.62     0.04     0.86     5.00    30.03    96.09     0.00     0.00  
Everton         24   37   +3      59.08     5.46     7.39     0.00     0.01     0.20     3.26    59.55     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           24   33   +2      53.79     5.31     4.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.31    19.58     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        24   33   +0      51.01     5.26    -1.66     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     8.61     0.15R    0.00  
Fulham          22   29   +3      49.68     5.64     2.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     7.06     0.55R    0.03  
Man_City        23   28   +9      50.16     5.45    11.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     7.90     0.45R    0.03  
Hull            24   28  -15      42.86     5.04   -23.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24    10.35R    1.47  
Bolton          24   27   -7      45.51     5.42    -8.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.32     3.61R    0.45  
Sunderland      24   27   -8      41.88     5.10   -14.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.20    11.59R    1.55  
Tottenham       24   24   -5      40.13     5.18    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    19.24R    4.09  
Newcastle       24   24  -10      39.09     5.11   -17.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    26.43R    6.26  
Portsmouth      23   24  -15      39.10     5.39   -24.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    30.54R    7.98  
Stoke           24   24  -17      39.86     5.27   -21.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    24.46R    5.88  
Blackburn       23   23  -11      37.49     5.20   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    39.15R   11.28  
Middlesbrough   24   22  -17      33.81     4.74   -27.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.34R   32.10  
West_Brom       24   22  -22      34.67     5.00   -32.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.12R   28.87  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 February 2009, Bristol_City vs Charlton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    31   63  +23      91.15     5.48    35.68    42.18    81.19    99.91    85.97P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          30   58  +32      91.47     5.34    50.24    49.85    85.56    99.89    91.09P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   56  +10      82.45     5.76    16.62     4.42    16.95    93.61    34.80P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        31   51  +15      75.58     5.36    20.91     0.18     1.74    68.59    20.45P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.16     6.01    25.06     3.29    13.57    90.39    35.71P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          31   49   +4      70.99     5.53     5.99     0.01     0.25    32.00     6.01P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              30   46   +4      68.77     5.77     5.53     0.01     0.12    21.20     4.53P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          30   46   +0      67.81     5.84    -0.37     0.01     0.08    15.78     2.57P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          30   45  +10      71.87     5.79    17.57     0.03     0.40    42.58    10.83P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_City     30   44   +3      66.00     5.70     3.13     0.00     0.04    10.39     2.02P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          30   43  +11      67.56     5.64    14.98     0.01     0.08    17.50     4.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.76     6.11     5.80     0.00     0.03     6.87     1.47P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        30   39  -10      56.56     5.56   -16.75     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.03P    2.47R    0.05  
Coventry         30   37   -4      56.82     5.74    -7.01     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.08P    2.01R    0.05  
Blackpool        30   37   -8      57.27     5.75   -10.31     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P    2.14R    0.05  
Plymouth         30   35   -6      54.87     5.62    -8.64     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.10R    0.14  
Nottm_Forest     30   33   -9      50.49     5.54   -16.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.07R    1.03  
Norwich          31   32   -7      50.21     5.51   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.31R    1.07  
Derby            29   32  -11      51.41     5.86   -16.89     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   15.52R    1.21  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.79     5.45   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.70R    2.32  
Doncaster        29   31  -12      47.97     5.41   -19.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.68R    2.85  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.64     5.84   -11.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   13.65R    1.17  
Southampton      31   28  -19      42.35     5.17   -28.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.37R   20.51  
Charlton         31   22  -23      36.74     5.18   -33.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.89R   69.56  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 February 2009, Huddersfield vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        29   67  +35     102.30     5.64    54.84    91.07    98.48   100.00    99.03P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          29   57  +26      89.45     5.93    41.08     6.46    59.29    98.58    71.98P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.95     6.30    26.32     1.30    18.93    89.65    36.86P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     28   50  +15      81.09     6.34    25.43     0.44     9.01    80.30    27.93P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         26   50   +9      81.18     6.95    14.58     0.65    10.58    76.54    25.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           29   49  +11      76.19     6.05    16.99     0.05     1.79    52.51    13.42P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            28   45  +11      73.83     6.37    17.48     0.03     1.14    38.19    10.27P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        29   44  +11      71.25     6.00    17.19     0.00     0.24    22.91     6.14P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     30   44   -3      65.46     5.83    -3.99     0.00     0.01     3.98     0.71P    0.03R    0.00  
Tranmere         27   43   +6      71.06     6.63     8.80     0.01     0.44    22.47     5.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Colchester       28   42   +4      68.44     6.32     6.53     0.00     0.08    12.32     2.61P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall          28   35   -5      59.34     6.31    -5.85     0.00     0.00     0.71     0.12P    1.62R    0.01  
Hartlepool       28   34   -4      56.81     6.34    -7.78     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    4.14R    0.05  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.53     6.21   -18.73     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.00P    8.10R    0.13  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.85     6.70     1.80     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.22P    2.08R    0.02  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.77     6.40     0.98     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.10P    2.73R    0.03  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      52.94     6.12   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   12.54R    0.25  
Carlisle         28   32   -9      55.44     6.37   -11.58     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    6.68R    0.12  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.74     6.37   -12.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.02R    0.62  
Brighton         27   28   -8      51.33     6.44   -12.27     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   18.43R    0.58  
Leyton_Orient    29   26  -16      43.78     5.74   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.73R    7.09  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.77     6.16   -39.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.85R   21.14  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.18     6.10   -31.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.45R   27.52  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.52     5.89   -47.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.55R   42.43  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 February 2009, Chester vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.10     6.11    26.60    33.41    68.63    95.50    75.99P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            28   49  +15      80.41     6.16    25.16    15.21    45.97    87.73    56.83P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 29   49  +12      77.39     5.96    19.93     5.86    26.51    75.61    37.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             28   48  +16      76.90     6.24    22.88     6.74    26.19    72.88    36.15P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.92     6.43    32.87    24.08    57.83    91.04    67.06P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           29   46  +19      76.57     5.88    30.05     4.65    24.09    74.27    40.03P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   46   +3      70.54     6.29     3.08     0.65     4.96    31.34     9.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             28   45  +14      74.01     6.35    20.93     2.80    14.09    55.94    23.62P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.81     6.15    36.05     6.19    27.54    74.99    42.16P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   43   +4      68.83     6.31     6.09     0.32     2.96    23.07     6.88P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.58     6.58     7.56     0.08     0.95    10.44     2.81P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   37   +3      62.85     6.32     4.92     0.01     0.27     5.42     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.21     6.31   -15.33     0.00     0.02     1.08     0.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Morecambe            28   32   -8      52.88     6.03   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.13R    0.01  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.79     5.77   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    0.18R    0.00  
Macclesfield         27   32  -18      51.69     6.19   -30.05     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.30R    0.00  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.47     5.93   -25.87     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     0.90R    0.03  
Accrington_Stanley   28   27  -13      47.40     6.19   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.69R    0.14  
Rotherham            27   26   +6      55.16     6.63    10.87     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.14P    0.07R    0.01  
Chester              29   25  -21      40.64     5.45   -33.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.22R    1.15  
Barnet               28   22  -23      40.03     5.93   -34.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.34R    2.46  
Grimsby              27   21  -21      39.68     6.16   -32.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.17R    2.81  
Bournemouth          28   12   -9      34.20     6.23   -13.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.42R   12.23  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.25     6.31   -12.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.58R   81.17  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 3 February 2009, Altrincham vs Northwich; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.68     5.86    32.37    71.53    99.43    77.72P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               27   52  +15      84.67     6.59    25.20    10.60    82.39    27.27P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      76.95     5.76    18.48     0.48    40.46    10.37P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.40     5.70     9.07     0.02    11.80     2.06P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.57     6.62    27.27     6.92    75.34    25.71P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.13     6.40    17.65     1.32    48.05    11.86P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.20     5.58     6.96     0.02     7.21     1.31P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.05     6.05    22.02     0.22    26.04     6.89P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              26   46  +19      83.31     6.69    35.12     8.26    79.42    28.84P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      61.92     5.78    -9.71     0.00     0.36     0.05P    0.10R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    30   40   +7      64.69     5.75    11.09     0.00     1.19     0.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           29   40  -10      59.68     5.82   -15.16     0.00     0.18     0.02P    0.27R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      73.95     7.29    14.29     0.65    26.96     7.32P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.74     6.06     1.35     0.00     0.63     0.16P    0.08R    0.00  
Mansfield            29   37   +1      61.89     5.95     3.48     0.00     0.50     0.12P    0.08R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.25     5.84    -7.28     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.02R    0.00  
York                 30   33   -2      56.92     5.97     1.12     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.13R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.54     5.63   -14.71     0.00     0.00     0.00P   13.08R    0.01  
Barrow               28   31  -10      51.11     6.01   -17.90     0.00     0.00     0.00P    9.63R    0.00  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.18     5.60   -25.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.79R    0.05  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.32     6.01   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.73R    0.03  
Forest_Green         29   29  -13      49.00     5.80   -19.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.75R    0.03  
Lewes                30   17  -39      25.96     4.33   -60.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.94R   85.23  
Northwich            29   16  -23      33.21     5.72   -33.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.39R   14.65  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4