Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 2 February 2009 at 22:05:53 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 February 2009, Liverpool vs Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         23   53  +30      86.67     4.76    49.47    74.87    92.29    99.03    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   51  +24      80.48     4.85    39.99    15.58    57.82    90.92    98.48    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         24   48  +29      78.73     4.85    47.41     8.85    43.95    85.52    97.17    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     24   48  +14      71.37     5.25    20.85     0.66     5.12    19.51    71.55    99.20     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   43  +13      66.70     5.19    20.27     0.04     0.82     4.84    29.00    95.62     0.00     0.00  
Everton         24   37   +3      58.89     5.52     7.06     0.00     0.01     0.16     3.19    58.36     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           24   33   +2      53.73     5.35     4.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.37    19.95     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        24   33   +0      50.95     5.26    -1.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     8.60     0.17R    0.00  
Fulham          22   29   +3      49.67     5.65     2.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     7.20     0.53R    0.03  
Man_City        23   28   +9      50.28     5.48    11.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     8.85     0.41R    0.03  
Hull            24   28  -15      42.92     5.05   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    10.47R    1.43  
Bolton          24   27   -7      45.58     5.41    -8.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.47     3.66R    0.44  
Sunderland      24   27   -8      41.95     5.11   -14.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23    11.34R    1.53  
Tottenham       24   24   -5      40.11     5.20    -9.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    19.85R    4.27  
Newcastle       24   24  -10      39.11     5.11   -17.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    26.60R    6.28  
Portsmouth      23   24  -15      38.99     5.33   -24.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    30.96R    8.42  
Stoke           24   24  -17      39.85     5.29   -22.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    24.70R    6.18  
Blackburn       23   23  -11      37.53     5.15   -22.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    39.22R   11.27  
Middlesbrough   24   22  -17      33.77     4.70   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.69R   32.37  
West_Brom       24   22  -22      34.89     5.06   -32.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    62.40R   27.74  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Bristol_City vs Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    30   62  +23      93.16     5.58    38.57    52.95    88.18    99.97    91.19P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          30   58  +32      91.51     5.36    50.38    41.11    84.46    99.91    90.26P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   56  +10      82.37     5.77    16.50     3.44    14.45    93.35    32.78P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.02     5.98    24.84     2.32    10.88    90.08    33.67P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        30   48  +14      74.34     5.68    20.46     0.10     1.04    60.05    17.90P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          30   48   +4      72.08     5.79     7.08     0.04     0.48    40.24     7.56P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              30   46   +4      68.73     5.78     5.49     0.01     0.06    21.00     4.67P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          30   46   +0      67.88     5.88    -0.28     0.01     0.05    16.57     2.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          30   45  +10      72.04     5.77    17.81     0.02     0.32    43.88    11.31P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          30   43  +11      67.47     5.66    14.85     0.00     0.05    17.40     4.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_City     29   41   +2      65.26     5.98     3.49     0.00     0.02     9.43     1.89P    0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.64     6.13     5.64     0.00     0.02     6.76     1.49P    0.07R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        30   39  -10      56.42     5.57   -16.99     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.04P    2.72R    0.06  
Coventry         30   37   -4      56.88     5.70    -6.91     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.09P    2.04R    0.06  
Blackpool        30   37   -8      57.25     5.71   -10.35     0.00     0.00     0.41     0.07P    2.11R    0.07  
Plymouth         29   34   -6      54.65     5.88    -9.55     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    5.05R    0.25  
Nottm_Forest     30   33   -9      50.42     5.51   -16.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.34R    1.16  
Derby            29   32  -11      51.37     5.88   -16.93     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    15.70R    1.58  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.82     5.43   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.33R    2.90  
Norwich          30   31   -7      49.19     5.65   -13.77     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.47R    2.43  
Doncaster        29   31  -12      47.82     5.47   -20.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.14R    3.79  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.83     5.87   -11.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.34R    1.22  
Southampton      30   28  -18      43.38     5.36   -28.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.49R   17.84  
Charlton         30   22  -22      37.28     5.32   -34.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.17R   68.64  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Brighton vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        28   64  +32     100.70     5.97    51.52    89.40    97.48    99.98    98.32P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          28   54  +25      87.32     6.23    39.29     6.10    48.32    96.02    63.36P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.95     6.36    26.38     2.18    23.40    88.69    39.20P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     28   50  +15      81.00     6.34    25.33     0.86    11.67    78.58    29.08P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         26   50   +9      81.18     6.93    14.56     1.22    12.93    75.31    26.62P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           29   49  +11      76.27     6.10    17.18     0.12     2.80    51.23    14.27P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            28   45  +11      73.90     6.38    17.64     0.06     1.58    37.67    10.53P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        28   44  +12      72.89     6.28    18.71     0.04     1.07    31.65     9.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         27   43   +6      70.93     6.61     8.68     0.02     0.57    20.91     5.07P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     29   43   -3      66.36     6.08    -3.27     0.00     0.04     5.42     1.01P    0.05R    0.00  
Colchester       28   42   +4      68.40     6.26     6.52     0.01     0.14    11.49     2.64P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          27   35   -2      60.81     6.52    -2.56     0.00     0.00     1.19     0.22P    1.02R    0.00  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.40     6.12   -18.88     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.54R    0.11  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      59.00     6.70     2.11     0.00     0.00     0.92     0.22P    2.14R    0.00  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.81     6.41     1.04     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.09P    2.67R    0.02  
Hartlepool       27   33   -4      56.85     6.62    -8.40     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.06P    4.65R    0.05  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      52.96     6.15   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   12.30R    0.17  
Carlisle         28   32   -9      55.37     6.37   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    6.86R    0.13  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.79     6.43   -12.67     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   17.02R    0.64  
Brighton         27   28   -8      51.23     6.45   -12.50     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    19.07R    0.68  
Leyton_Orient    29   26  -16      43.92     5.76   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.95R    7.08  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.71     6.19   -39.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.07R   21.15  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.25     6.18   -31.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.01R   27.18  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.48     5.88   -47.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.63R   42.77  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Aldershot vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.09     6.06    26.53    30.17    68.13    95.90    75.63P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            27   49  +17      83.28     6.34    29.34    27.48    63.78    94.02    72.41P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 29   49  +12      77.31     5.96    19.85     4.95    25.16    76.74    37.27P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.84     6.43    32.81    21.62    56.64    91.54    66.19P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   46   +3      70.48     6.29     2.96     0.61     4.78    32.54     9.33P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   45  +14      75.33     6.61    20.96     4.39    19.64    64.46    29.05P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             28   45  +14      74.02     6.33    20.93     2.35    13.50    57.76    23.69P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.61     6.16    35.82     4.98    25.61    75.17    40.55P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   43  +17      75.42     6.17    28.80     3.07    18.82    68.49    34.36P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   43   +4      68.90     6.29     6.20     0.29     2.82    24.54     6.80P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.57     6.54     7.56     0.07     0.84    10.87     2.82P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   37   +3      62.83     6.32     4.88     0.02     0.26     5.88     1.49P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.41     6.38   -14.94     0.00     0.04     1.37     0.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.82     5.77   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    0.19R    0.00  
Macclesfield         27   32  -18      51.98     6.27   -29.58     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.32R    0.01  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.48     5.93   -25.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.97R    0.04  
Morecambe            27   29  -10      49.79     6.18   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    0.72R    0.04  
Accrington_Stanley   27   27  -11      48.15     6.39   -18.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.34R    0.10  
Rotherham            27   26   +6      55.10     6.58    10.79     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.15P    0.07R    0.00  
Chester              28   25  -19      41.98     5.79   -31.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    10.21R    0.74  
Barnet               28   22  -23      40.15     5.99   -34.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.95R    2.38  
Grimsby              27   21  -21      39.65     6.12   -32.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.11R    2.85  
Bournemouth          28   12   -9      34.25     6.29   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.13R   11.73  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.12     6.31   -12.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.98R   82.10  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 February 2009, Oxford_Utd vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.70     5.82    32.34    70.49    99.50    76.93P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               26   51  +15      85.46     6.88    25.85    13.09    84.07    29.73P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      77.00     5.75    18.59     0.51    40.35    10.46P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.44     5.68     9.16     0.02    11.64     2.06P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.43     6.58    27.08     6.20    74.62    24.66P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.16     6.43    17.70     1.35    48.15    11.91P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.20     5.63     6.94     0.01     7.45     1.39P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      73.98     6.04    21.91     0.26    25.41     6.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              26   46  +19      83.06     6.72    34.69     7.48    78.00    27.83P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.09     5.79    -9.39     0.00     0.36     0.07P    0.07R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    30   40   +7      64.68     5.75    11.13     0.00     1.13     0.30P    0.03R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.17     7.23    14.59     0.60    28.00     7.69P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.72     6.06     1.35     0.00     0.71     0.12P    0.07R    0.00  
Mansfield            29   37   +1      62.00     6.01     3.66     0.00     0.47     0.11P    0.11R    0.00  
Altrincham           28   37  -11      58.23     6.10   -16.01     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.83R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.22     5.83    -7.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     2.00R    0.00  
York                 30   33   -2      56.89     5.98     1.09     0.00     0.02     0.00     1.21R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.56     5.61   -14.66     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.02R    0.01  
Barrow               28   31  -10      50.99     5.96   -18.03     0.00     0.01     0.00    10.03R    0.03  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.06     5.63   -25.77     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.58R    0.05  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.57     6.05   -21.74     0.00     0.00     0.00P   25.88R    0.04  
Forest_Green         28   28  -13      48.63     6.00   -20.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.63R    0.08  
Lewes                30   17  -39      25.95     4.31   -60.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   88.58  
Northwich            28   16  -22      34.56     5.94   -32.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.59R   11.21  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4