Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 1 February 2009 at 22:06:14 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 February 2009, Liverpool vs Chelsea; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         23   53  +30      86.58     4.82    49.35    74.18    91.94    98.94    99.90   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       24   51  +24      80.54     4.82    40.09    16.04    57.85    90.96    98.49   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         24   48  +29      78.79     4.84    47.43     9.13    44.27    85.90    97.30    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     24   48  +14      71.40     5.27    20.91     0.59     5.09    19.26    71.37    99.17     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   43  +13      66.82     5.14    20.43     0.06     0.84     4.78    29.19    95.93     0.00     0.00  
Everton         24   37   +3      58.91     5.46     7.12     0.00     0.01     0.16     3.13    58.37     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           24   33   +2      53.77     5.32     4.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.32    19.61     0.02R    0.00  
West_Ham        24   33   +0      51.04     5.28    -1.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     8.94     0.16R    0.01  
Fulham          22   29   +3      49.76     5.66     2.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     7.43     0.49R    0.03  
Man_City        23   28   +9      50.12     5.46    11.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     8.27     0.45R    0.02  
Hull            24   28  -15      42.87     5.06   -23.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23    10.44R    1.44  
Bolton          24   27   -7      45.57     5.42    -8.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.49     3.53R    0.40  
Sunderland      24   27   -8      41.87     5.10   -14.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23    11.57R    1.58  
Tottenham       24   24   -5      40.07     5.19    -9.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    19.83R    4.12  
Newcastle       24   24  -10      39.15     5.10   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    26.08R    6.13  
Portsmouth      23   24  -15      39.06     5.35   -24.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    30.43R    8.28  
Stoke           24   24  -17      39.86     5.28   -22.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    24.68R    5.79  
Blackburn       23   23  -11      37.50     5.16   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    39.27R   11.42  
Middlesbrough   24   22  -17      33.78     4.72   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.77R   32.35  
West_Brom       24   22  -22      34.78     5.02   -32.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.28R   28.41  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Bristol_City vs Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    30   62  +23      93.12     5.57    38.61    52.76    87.85    99.97    91.05P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          30   58  +32      91.53     5.35    50.38    41.51    84.77    99.93    90.38P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   56  +10      82.30     5.76    16.44     3.13    14.02    93.21    32.20P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.09     5.99    24.97     2.45    11.22    90.03    34.09P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        30   48  +14      74.35     5.62    20.48     0.10     1.09    60.00    17.88P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          30   48   +4      71.94     5.77     6.87     0.03     0.41    39.17     7.40P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              30   46   +4      68.83     5.74     5.63     0.01     0.11    21.36     4.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          30   46   +0      67.94     5.86    -0.18     0.00     0.09    16.46     2.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          30   45  +10      72.11     5.74    17.94     0.02     0.35    44.27    11.17P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          30   43  +11      67.59     5.69    15.05     0.00     0.05    18.21     4.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_City     29   41   +2      65.34     5.97     3.61     0.00     0.03     9.60     1.93P    0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.54     6.14     5.47     0.00     0.02     6.47     1.49P    0.10R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        30   39  -10      56.62     5.62   -16.70     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.03P    2.56R    0.06  
Coventry         30   37   -4      56.83     5.72    -7.01     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.08P    2.07R    0.08  
Blackpool        30   37   -8      57.31     5.66   -10.25     0.00     0.00     0.40     0.06P    2.01R    0.07  
Plymouth         29   34   -6      54.36     5.82    -9.96     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    5.52R    0.28  
Nottm_Forest     30   33   -9      50.52     5.53   -16.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.82R    1.18  
Derby            29   32  -11      51.31     5.84   -17.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   15.69R    1.58  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.80     5.44   -19.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.40R    2.81  
Norwich          30   31   -7      49.22     5.65   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   22.36R    2.22  
Doncaster        29   31  -12      47.82     5.45   -20.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.24R    3.58  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.67     5.85   -11.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    13.78R    1.29  
Southampton      30   28  -18      43.46     5.35   -28.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.94R   17.31  
Charlton         30   22  -22      37.21     5.29   -34.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.48R   69.55  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Brighton vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        28   64  +32     100.71     5.98    51.52    89.11    97.35    99.99    98.23P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          28   54  +25      87.41     6.24    39.46     6.48    48.82    96.13    63.82P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.85     6.30    26.19     2.18    22.98    88.58    38.69P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     28   50  +15      80.94     6.29    25.24     0.80    11.14    78.80    28.46P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         26   50   +9      81.43     6.94    14.92     1.27    13.84    76.37    28.02P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           29   49  +11      76.26     6.06    17.14     0.08     2.67    51.14    14.04P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            28   45  +11      73.75     6.38    17.38     0.04     1.38    36.38    10.18P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        28   44  +12      72.90     6.26    18.73     0.01     0.98    31.71     9.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         27   43   +6      70.95     6.69     8.68     0.03     0.67    21.08     5.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     29   43   -3      66.29     6.08    -3.37     0.00     0.04     5.18     0.97P    0.04R    0.00  
Colchester       28   42   +4      68.45     6.27     6.62     0.00     0.14    11.74     2.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          27   35   -2      60.68     6.53    -2.76     0.00     0.01     1.15     0.22P    1.08R    0.02  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.58     6.17   -18.61     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    8.15R    0.12  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.99     6.67     2.10     0.00     0.00     0.89     0.19P    2.00R    0.02  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.72     6.38     0.91     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.08P    2.91R    0.02  
Hartlepool       27   33   -4      56.83     6.64    -8.41     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    4.64R    0.09  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      53.01     6.08   -17.61     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   12.10R    0.19  
Carlisle         28   32   -9      55.34     6.35   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    7.01R    0.11  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.82     6.42   -12.62     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   16.85R    0.65  
Brighton         27   28   -8      51.26     6.41   -12.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.80R    0.62  
Leyton_Orient    29   26  -16      43.90     5.74   -23.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.29R    7.04  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.73     6.14   -39.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.12R   21.07  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.19     6.16   -31.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.17R   27.63  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.49     5.85   -47.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.83R   42.43  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Aldershot vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.19     6.09    26.66    30.74    68.57    95.92    75.86P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            27   49  +17      83.30     6.31    29.35    27.23    63.57    94.41    72.40P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 29   49  +12      77.42     6.00    20.03     5.34    25.76    76.74    37.50P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.76     6.40    32.67    20.84    55.88    91.45    65.89P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   46   +3      70.42     6.31     2.87     0.61     4.75    32.08     9.19P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   45  +14      75.28     6.57    20.88     4.25    19.48    64.01    28.71P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             28   45  +14      74.10     6.30    21.07     2.29    13.46    58.24    23.71P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.52     6.17    35.61     4.93    24.91    74.35    39.85P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   43  +17      75.62     6.19    29.06     3.44    19.77    69.08    35.30P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   43   +4      68.97     6.26     6.32     0.27     2.76    24.77     6.83P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.54     6.59     7.53     0.05     0.80    10.88     2.86P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   37   +3      62.91     6.31     4.99     0.01     0.25     6.05     1.47P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.24     6.37   -15.21     0.00     0.03     1.31     0.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.88     5.73   -16.47     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    0.20R    0.00  
Macclesfield         27   32  -18      51.76     6.26   -29.98     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.39R    0.01  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.35     5.92   -26.07     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.06R    0.06  
Morecambe            27   29  -10      49.95     6.21   -17.67     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.59R    0.03  
Accrington_Stanley   27   27  -11      48.10     6.32   -18.52     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.34R    0.06  
Rotherham            27   26   +6      55.00     6.59    10.64     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.15P    0.09R    0.00  
Chester              28   25  -19      42.20     5.78   -31.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.36R    0.69  
Barnet               28   22  -23      40.02     5.93   -34.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.23R    2.33  
Grimsby              27   21  -21      39.72     6.18   -32.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.91R    2.68  
Bournemouth          28   12   -9      34.23     6.21   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.81R   11.62  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.14     6.26   -12.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.00R   82.51  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 1 February 2009, Oxford_Utd vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.85     5.83    32.63    71.15    99.48    77.63P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               26   51  +15      85.50     6.85    25.95    12.91    84.16    29.50P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        30   50  +11      77.00     5.78    18.59     0.46    40.60    10.38P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.36     5.70     9.03     0.03    11.63     2.05P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.27     6.62    26.83     5.67    73.74    24.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.36     6.45    17.98     1.44    49.37    12.60P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           31   49   +6      70.27     5.61     7.06     0.02     7.26     1.36P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      73.94     6.05    21.85     0.21    25.46     6.54P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              26   46  +19      83.14     6.68    34.88     7.48    78.49    27.99P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.05     5.80    -9.49     0.00     0.38     0.05P    0.09R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    30   40   +7      64.79     5.75    11.28     0.00     1.20     0.31P    0.02R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.03     7.30    14.38     0.64    26.92     7.28P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.64     6.05     1.18     0.00     0.66     0.12P    0.06R    0.00  
Mansfield            29   37   +1      61.86     6.00     3.43     0.00     0.43     0.11P    0.11R    0.00  
Altrincham           28   37  -11      58.35     6.10   -15.85     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.88R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.25     5.83    -7.24     0.00     0.01     0.00P    2.04R    0.00  
York                 30   33   -2      57.02     6.01     1.29     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.08R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.60     5.67   -14.67     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.85R    0.01  
Barrow               28   31  -10      50.94     5.94   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.85R    0.01  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      46.08     5.66   -25.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.56R    0.04  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.40     6.02   -22.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.63R    0.04  
Forest_Green         28   28  -13      48.72     6.03   -20.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.20R    0.08  
Lewes                30   17  -39      25.93     4.32   -60.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.96R   88.48  
Northwich            28   16  -22      34.55     5.92   -32.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.68R   11.34  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4