Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 31 January 2009 at 22:16:07 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Arsenal vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         23   53  +30      86.57     4.80    49.37    72.01    92.83    98.88    99.91   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         23   48  +31      80.93     4.97    50.83    19.13    66.90    92.44    98.64   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   48  +22      78.05     5.20    36.77     8.18    34.59    81.20    95.96    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     24   48  +14      71.35     5.24    20.80     0.62     4.91    21.57    71.44    99.20     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         24   43  +13      66.85     5.17    20.52     0.05     0.76     5.72    30.26    95.88     0.00     0.00  
Everton         24   37   +3      58.83     5.45     6.97     0.00     0.01     0.18     3.07    58.15     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           24   33   +2      53.65     5.35     4.42     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.35    19.64     0.03R    0.00  
West_Ham        24   33   +0      51.03     5.27    -1.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     8.90     0.18R    0.00  
Fulham          22   29   +3      49.72     5.65     2.13     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     7.46     0.55R    0.04  
Man_City        23   28   +9      50.24     5.45    11.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15     8.37     0.44R    0.02  
Hull            24   28  -15      42.92     5.05   -23.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21    10.30R    1.52  
Bolton          24   27   -7      45.53     5.40    -8.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.46     3.61R    0.42  
Sunderland      23   26   -8      41.83     5.42   -15.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.33    13.84R    2.34  
Tottenham       24   24   -5      40.10     5.18    -9.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    19.73R    4.26  
Portsmouth      23   24  -15      39.06     5.36   -24.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    30.68R    8.70  
Stoke           24   24  -17      39.83     5.31   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    25.48R    6.24  
Newcastle       23   23  -10      39.76     5.41   -16.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    24.11R    5.87  
Blackburn       23   23  -11      37.54     5.17   -22.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    39.11R   11.39  
Middlesbrough   24   22  -17      33.88     4.74   -27.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.25R   31.81  
West_Brom       24   22  -22      34.92     5.03   -32.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.70R   27.36  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Bristol_City vs Barnsley; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    30   62  +23      92.99     5.60    38.33    51.52    87.06    99.96    90.47P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          30   58  +32      91.65     5.33    50.58    42.41    84.97    99.90    90.71P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       30   56  +10      82.39     5.74    16.54     3.32    14.31    93.68    32.77P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          29   51  +15      81.16     6.05    25.06     2.60    11.76    90.11    34.63P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        30   48  +14      74.08     5.68    20.13     0.07     1.00    58.40    17.17P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          30   48   +4      71.83     5.79     6.68     0.03     0.37    38.79     6.92P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              30   46   +4      68.94     5.73     5.73     0.00     0.07    22.14     4.83P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          30   46   +0      67.93     5.85    -0.15     0.00     0.07    16.81     2.79P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          30   45  +10      72.09     5.77    17.86     0.03     0.31    44.30    11.32P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          30   43  +11      67.64     5.63    15.13     0.00     0.05    18.12     4.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Bristol_City     29   41   +2      65.23     5.98     3.46     0.00     0.01     9.48     2.00P    0.05R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   29   40   +5      63.72     6.16     5.75     0.00     0.01     7.05     1.53P    0.11R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        30   39  -10      56.36     5.55   -17.05     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.04P    2.64R    0.08  
Coventry         30   37   -4      56.86     5.72    -6.97     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.08P    2.15R    0.08  
Blackpool        30   37   -8      57.34     5.67   -10.26     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    1.86R    0.07  
Plymouth         29   34   -6      54.51     5.82    -9.71     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    5.34R    0.25  
Nottm_Forest     30   33   -9      50.46     5.55   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.32R    1.22  
Derby            29   32  -11      51.31     5.87   -17.01     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   16.04R    1.50  
Barnsley         30   32  -12      48.82     5.43   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.59R    2.90  
Norwich          30   31   -7      49.19     5.60   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    22.09R    2.36  
Doncaster        29   31  -12      47.86     5.48   -20.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.51R    3.92  
Watford          30   30  -11      51.76     5.84   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   13.21R    1.38  
Southampton      30   28  -18      43.30     5.33   -28.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.01R   18.38  
Charlton         30   22  -22      37.38     5.34   -34.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.07R   67.84  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Brighton vs Hartlepool; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        28   64  +32     100.62     5.98    51.41    88.88    97.40    99.99    98.25P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          28   54  +25      87.43     6.17    39.46     6.51    48.79    96.30    63.77P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       28   53  +16      83.94     6.34    26.32     2.28    23.07    88.68    39.06P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     28   50  +15      81.04     6.30    25.38     0.87    11.48    78.97    28.93P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         26   50   +9      81.13     7.00    14.53     1.24    13.15    74.79    26.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           29   49  +11      76.25     6.11    17.15     0.11     2.63    51.03    14.09P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            28   45  +11      73.90     6.42    17.63     0.07     1.63    37.43    10.51P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        28   44  +12      72.95     6.28    18.78     0.04     1.01    31.82     9.36P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         27   43   +6      71.01     6.67     8.85     0.00     0.63    21.30     5.27P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     29   43   -3      66.27     6.09    -3.37     0.00     0.04     5.17     0.93P    0.05R    0.00  
Colchester       28   42   +4      68.38     6.32     6.44     0.00     0.15    11.58     2.57P    0.02R    0.00  
Walsall          27   35   -2      60.73     6.53    -2.70     0.00     0.01     1.13     0.26P    1.01R    0.00  
Southend         28   34  -12      54.46     6.22   -18.77     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    8.56R    0.14  
Bristol_Rovers   27   33   +3      58.80     6.72     1.77     0.00     0.00     0.87     0.19P    2.19R    0.02  
Northampton      28   33   +1      57.78     6.42     0.96     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.09P    2.83R    0.01  
Hartlepool       27   33   -4      56.90     6.62    -8.32     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.04P    4.59R    0.08  
Yeovil           28   33  -11      52.97     6.09   -17.66     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   12.13R    0.20  
Carlisle         28   32   -9      55.37     6.35   -11.64     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    6.77R    0.12  
Swindon          27   28   -8      51.85     6.43   -12.58     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   17.03R    0.65  
Brighton         27   28   -8      51.33     6.49   -12.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.65R    0.62  
Leyton_Orient    29   26  -16      43.81     5.72   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.01R    7.12  
Crewe            27   22  -25      40.85     6.14   -39.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.40R   20.67  
Hereford         27   21  -19      39.25     6.14   -30.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.00R   27.23  
Cheltenham       27   21  -28      37.41     5.88   -48.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.74R   43.15  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Aldershot vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              28   53  +17      84.17     6.11    26.62    30.67    68.17    95.80    75.73P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            27   49  +17      83.11     6.31    29.05    26.47    62.75    93.90    71.34P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 29   49  +12      77.37     5.92    19.93     4.95    25.26    76.70    37.04P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           27   47  +19      81.79     6.47    32.76    21.52    56.22    91.27    65.76P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           28   46   +3      70.61     6.27     3.16     0.66     4.84    32.78     9.34P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             27   45  +14      75.28     6.58    20.89     4.31    19.40    64.12    28.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             28   45  +14      74.14     6.39    21.09     2.44    14.12    58.28    24.40P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            28   43  +21      76.72     6.21    35.95     5.36    26.22    75.33    41.11P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           28   43  +17      75.57     6.15    29.03     3.21    19.27    69.13    35.09P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               28   43   +4      68.89     6.25     6.18     0.33     2.69    24.22     6.78P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         27   37   +5      64.39     6.57     7.26     0.06     0.79    10.43     2.75P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         28   37   +3      62.97     6.26     5.06     0.01     0.23     5.95     1.42P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            27   36   -8      58.42     6.36   -14.86     0.00     0.04     1.37     0.21P    0.02R    0.00  
Notts_County         29   32  -11      51.64     5.82   -16.85     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.27R    0.01  
Macclesfield         27   32  -18      51.76     6.25   -30.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.32R    0.01  
Port_Vale            28   31  -14      48.45     5.96   -25.91     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.10R    0.04  
Morecambe            27   29  -10      49.78     6.19   -17.99     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.74R    0.03  
Accrington_Stanley   27   27  -11      48.16     6.35   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.47R    0.08  
Rotherham            27   26   +6      55.16     6.60    10.86     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.16P    0.08R    0.00  
Chester              28   25  -19      42.06     5.80   -31.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.61R    0.83  
Barnet               28   22  -23      40.05     5.99   -34.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.41R    2.56  
Grimsby              27   21  -21      39.62     6.14   -32.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.38R    2.77  
Bournemouth          28   12   -9      34.38     6.29   -12.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.49R   11.68  
Luton                28    2   -8      24.16     6.28   -12.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.10R   82.00  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 31 January 2009, Barrow vs Salisbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.63     5.91    32.24    69.81    99.47    76.29P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               26   51  +15      85.51     6.87    25.92    13.27    85.29    29.88P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.34     5.69     8.98     0.02    12.15     2.09P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.41     6.64    27.03     6.35    75.68    25.63P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.25     6.39    17.88     1.48    50.37    12.32P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.04     6.04    22.05     0.27    26.89     7.19P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        29   47  +10      74.82     5.95    16.82     0.20    28.86     7.35P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              26   46  +19      83.19     6.76    35.02     7.95    79.40    28.43P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   46   +5      69.94     5.75     8.26     0.02     7.88     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   30   42   -6      62.09     5.81    -9.38     0.00     0.39     0.05P    0.09R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    29   40   +8      66.60     5.98    12.91     0.00     3.37     0.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.10     7.25    14.50     0.62    28.83     7.87P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.62     6.07     1.14     0.00     0.74     0.15P    0.10R    0.00  
Mansfield            29   37   +1      61.80     5.98     3.37     0.00     0.54     0.11P    0.10R    0.00  
Altrincham           28   37  -11      58.56     6.10   -15.56     0.00     0.12     0.01P    0.81R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.34     5.78    -7.12     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.85R    0.00  
York                 30   33   -2      56.92     5.93     1.18     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.11R    0.00  
Woking               30   32   -9      49.66     5.63   -14.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.87R    0.01  
Barrow               28   31  -10      51.02     5.97   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     9.74R    0.01  
Salisbury            29   30  -14      45.93     5.62   -25.99     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.43R    0.09  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.48     6.04   -21.96     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.26R    0.04  
Forest_Green         28   28  -13      48.70     6.01   -20.34     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.02R    0.07  
Lewes                29   17  -38      26.03     4.37   -61.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.92R   87.72  
Northwich            28   16  -22      34.44     5.93   -32.84     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.69R   12.06  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4