Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 30 January 2009 at 22:05:47 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 January 2009, Blackburn vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         22   50  +29      85.72     5.09    49.61    67.10    89.53    97.73    99.65   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         23   48  +31      80.77     5.01    50.38    21.39    65.32    90.00    97.94    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   48  +22      78.13     5.23    36.82     9.98    35.92    77.52    94.25    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     23   47  +14      72.31     5.50    21.78     1.32     7.62    25.95    70.61    99.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         23   42  +13      68.01     5.42    21.92     0.21     1.61     8.52    33.83    95.97     0.00     0.00  
Everton         23   37   +4      59.41     5.57     6.82     0.00     0.01     0.24     2.87    58.82     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           23   32   +2      53.50     5.60     3.64     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.34    17.16     0.08R    0.00  
West_Ham        23   32   +0      50.66     5.58    -3.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12     7.74     0.31R    0.01  
Man_City        22   28  +10      52.56     5.74    14.11     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.36    15.16     0.19R    0.01  
Hull            23   27  -15      43.96     5.39   -21.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.37     8.50R    1.28  
Fulham          21   26   +1      47.91     5.91     0.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.14     1.79R    0.18  
Sunderland      23   26   -8      41.97     5.40   -15.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29    12.93R    1.95  
Tottenham       23   24   -4      41.59     5.51    -8.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30    13.86R    2.44  
Bolton          23   24   -8      43.63     5.66    -9.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.75     8.20R    1.29  
Portsmouth      22   24  -13      40.42     5.64   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    22.87R    5.38  
Newcastle       23   23  -10      39.79     5.42   -16.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    23.78R    5.35  
Blackburn       22   22  -11      38.13     5.53   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    35.66R   10.47  
Middlesbrough   23   21  -17      34.31     5.07   -27.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.95R   27.56  
Stoke           23   21  -18      37.40     5.61   -24.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    41.95R   13.93  
West_Brom       23   21  -22      34.47     5.25   -33.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    64.93R   30.14  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 30 January 2009, Doncaster vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    29   59  +21      92.32     5.84    38.29    44.42    84.33    99.85    88.26P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          29   57  +32      92.33     5.61    51.23    48.77    86.25    99.87    91.34P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       29   55  +10      83.01     6.04    16.86     4.77    17.75    93.17    35.18P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          28   48  +13      79.76     6.27    23.40     1.71     8.41    83.53    29.33P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   47  +14      74.63     5.97    20.35     0.17     1.51    58.00    17.49P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          29   47   +4      72.47     6.02     7.07     0.07     0.62    40.41     7.82P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              29   45   +4      68.86     5.98     5.11     0.02     0.17    20.41     4.73P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          29   44  +10      73.17     5.97    18.87     0.06     0.63    48.46    13.12P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   43   -1      67.24     6.11     0.32     0.00     0.07    13.55     2.30P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          29   42  +11      68.74     5.91    16.16     0.01     0.15    22.18     5.91P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   40   +6      66.34     6.43     8.48     0.01     0.08    13.39     3.08P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_City     28   38   +0      63.76     6.23     1.62     0.00     0.03     5.77     1.14P    0.15R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        29   38  -10      56.44     5.80   -17.40     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    2.95R    0.10  
Coventry         29   37   -3      58.34     5.98    -5.76     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.15P    1.36R    0.03  
Blackpool        29   34   -9      54.48     5.88   -13.18     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    6.29R    0.43  
Plymouth         28   33   -6      54.11     6.09   -11.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.04P    6.66R    0.44  
Nottm_Forest     29   33   -7      51.46     5.76   -14.80     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   13.31R    0.98  
Barnsley         29   32  -10      50.06     5.70   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    19.87R    2.03  
Norwich          30   31   -7      49.28     5.62   -13.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.31R    2.49  
Doncaster        29   31  -12      47.91     5.49   -20.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.14R    3.98  
Watford          29   30   -9      52.21     6.04   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   12.63R    1.21  
Derby            28   29  -12      49.50     6.12   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.59R    3.58  
Southampton      29   27  -18      43.00     5.55   -29.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.94R   21.56  
Charlton         29   22  -21      37.96     5.54   -34.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.76R   63.18  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 January 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        27   61  +31      99.24     6.26    50.67    84.01    95.07    99.92    96.82P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   51  +23      86.59     6.50    38.66     7.39    40.64    93.37    57.37P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     27   50  +16      82.97     6.62    27.37     2.50    18.38    82.73    34.76P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       27   50  +15      81.73     6.57    24.23     1.69    14.03    77.57    29.03P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         25   50  +10      83.65     7.20    17.27     3.60    22.12    81.52    35.50P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           28   48  +11      77.61     6.35    18.94     0.39     4.42    55.48    16.44P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            27   45  +12      75.83     6.64    19.56     0.23     2.89    45.25    13.39P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   43   +7      73.73     6.97    11.88     0.16     1.74    31.76     8.37P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport        27   41   +9      71.36     6.54    15.68     0.02     0.62    20.67     5.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     28   40   -4      64.05     6.35    -5.36     0.00     0.03     2.57     0.49P    0.16R    0.00  
Colchester       27   39   +2      65.80     6.63     2.93     0.00     0.04     5.44     1.09P    0.12R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   26   33   +4      60.76     6.94     3.70     0.00     0.01     1.51     0.31P    1.18R    0.02  
Northampton      27   33   +2      58.56     6.58     1.06     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.12P    2.15R    0.03  
Hartlepool       26   33   -3      58.53     6.92    -6.82     0.00     0.01     0.66     0.15P    2.97R    0.03  
Walsall          26   32   -3      58.74     6.78    -4.32     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.14P    2.39R    0.03  
Carlisle         27   32   -7      57.81     6.67    -7.97     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    3.36R    0.06  
Southend         27   31  -13      52.38     6.42   -20.75     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   14.48R    0.37  
Yeovil           27   30  -12      50.71     6.28   -19.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.76R    0.75  
Swindon          26   27   -8      51.13     6.66   -14.85     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   19.48R    0.90  
Leyton_Orient    28   26  -15      46.01     6.06   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   47.55R    3.56  
Brighton         26   25   -9      49.26     6.79   -13.90     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   27.69R    1.52  
Hereford         26   21  -16      40.58     6.30   -27.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.36R   18.45  
Cheltenham       26   21  -26      37.70     5.99   -47.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.77R   38.83  
Crewe            26   19  -26      38.00     6.34   -42.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.57R   35.47  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 January 2009, Chesterfield vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              27   50  +16      83.53     6.26    27.05    33.12    68.51    95.62    76.35P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            26   46  +15      80.50     6.57    25.66    18.32    50.14    89.18    60.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 28   46  +11      75.82     6.20    19.10     4.44    21.98    72.06    33.49P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           26   44  +18      79.21     6.76    30.37    15.37    44.15    85.26    55.28P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            27   43  +22      78.52     6.40    37.75    12.41    41.57    85.15    54.49P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   43  +19      77.89     6.30    32.35     9.68    36.56    83.09    52.02P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           27   43   +2      68.87     6.57     1.92     0.58     4.08    28.50     8.06P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             26   42  +12      73.18     6.91    18.07     3.16    14.87    56.08    23.32P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             27   42  +12      73.13     6.58    20.12     2.44    13.68    56.78    23.48P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               27   40   +3      68.03     6.49     6.41     0.36     2.90    24.47     7.00P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         27   36   +3      63.87     6.56     5.94     0.05     0.76    10.30     2.77P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            26   36   -6      60.21     6.63   -11.99     0.02     0.17     3.69     0.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         26   34   +4      62.59     6.83     5.98     0.05     0.62     8.67     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         28   32  -10      53.45     6.07   -15.31     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.17R    0.01  
Macclesfield         26   32  -16      52.95     6.41   -28.46     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.02P    0.31R    0.01  
Port_Vale            27   30  -14      48.41     6.22   -26.54     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.44R    0.10  
Morecambe            26   28  -10      50.54     6.43   -17.37     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.78R    0.07  
Accrington_Stanley   26   27  -10      48.81     6.51   -18.33     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.42R    0.13  
Chester              27   25  -18      43.71     6.07   -30.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.25R    0.67  
Rotherham            26   23   +4      53.62     6.89     9.20     0.00     0.01     0.50     0.14P    0.28R    0.02  
Barnet               27   22  -22      40.75     6.15   -34.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.99R    2.97  
Grimsby              26   21  -19      40.50     6.37   -31.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.59R    3.21  
Bournemouth          27   11   -9      33.64     6.45   -14.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.36R   18.36  
Luton                27    2   -7      25.73     6.57   -11.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.41R   74.43  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 29 January 2009, Cambridge_Utd vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.76     5.86    32.52    70.38    99.52    76.95P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               26   51  +15      85.59     6.89    26.17    13.35    85.23    30.25P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.36     5.69     9.00     0.02    12.09     2.14P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.29     6.59    26.86     5.86    74.76    24.43P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.22     6.36    17.76     1.30    50.21    12.49P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.07     6.09    22.13     0.26    27.39     7.02P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        29   47  +10      74.93     6.00    16.93     0.23    29.43     7.71P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              26   46  +19      83.26     6.71    35.16     7.98    79.97    28.78P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   46   +5      69.88     5.78     8.11     0.02     7.69     1.50P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   29   42   -5      64.00     6.09    -7.52     0.00     1.21     0.16P    0.04R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    29   40   +8      66.72     5.94    13.16     0.00     3.43     0.92P    0.01R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      73.96     7.25    14.31     0.58    27.94     7.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.61     6.06     1.18     0.00     0.69     0.16P    0.06R    0.00  
Altrincham           28   37  -11      58.44     6.11   -15.68     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.68R    0.00  
Mansfield            28   34   +0      59.71     6.28     1.65     0.00     0.25     0.05P    0.41R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.16     5.79    -7.41     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.93R    0.00  
York                 30   33   -2      56.67     5.94     0.72     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.11R    0.00  
Barrow               27   30  -10      52.43     6.29   -16.59     0.00     0.02     0.00P    7.28R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.25     6.06   -22.42     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.96R    0.08  
Woking               29   29  -12      47.09     5.78   -18.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.15R    0.05  
Salisbury            28   29  -14      45.76     5.87   -27.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.76R    0.16  
Forest_Green         28   28  -13      48.80     6.08   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.91R    0.09  
Lewes                29   17  -38      26.07     4.41   -61.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   91.47  
Northwich            27   16  -19      36.55     6.26   -28.31     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.79R    8.12  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4