Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 29 January 2009 at 22:05:43 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 January 2009, Blackburn vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         22   50  +29      85.84     5.04    49.65    67.69    90.00    97.90    99.65   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         23   48  +31      80.83     4.99    50.47    21.31    65.90    90.28    98.00    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   48  +22      77.97     5.24    36.56     9.46    34.71    76.85    94.01    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     23   47  +14      72.32     5.53    21.80     1.37     7.72    26.27    70.67    98.91     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         23   42  +13      68.03     5.40    21.93     0.17     1.65     8.42    33.86    95.99     0.00     0.00  
Everton         23   37   +4      59.41     5.61     6.79     0.00     0.02     0.26     2.96    58.04     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           23   32   +2      53.72     5.58     3.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.39    17.96     0.05R    0.00  
West_Ham        23   32   +0      50.58     5.53    -3.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     7.49     0.33R    0.01  
Man_City        22   28  +10      52.85     5.73    14.60     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.34    16.10     0.17R    0.01  
Hull            23   27  -15      44.10     5.40   -21.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.43     7.98R    1.19  
Fulham          21   26   +1      47.54     5.93    -0.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     3.53     2.01R    0.22  
Sunderland      23   26   -8      41.91     5.41   -15.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28    13.08R    1.89  
Tottenham       23   24   -4      41.59     5.50    -8.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29    13.93R    2.47  
Bolton          23   24   -8      43.53     5.69    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.69     8.54R    1.37  
Portsmouth      22   24  -13      40.40     5.60   -21.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19    22.70R    5.14  
Newcastle       23   23  -10      39.83     5.41   -16.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    23.20R    5.28  
Blackburn       22   22  -11      38.08     5.50   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    35.86R   10.61  
Middlesbrough   23   21  -17      34.25     5.06   -27.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.16R   28.17  
Stoke           23   21  -18      37.35     5.63   -24.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    42.45R   14.19  
West_Brom       23   21  -22      34.54     5.26   -33.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.55R   29.44  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 January 2009, Coventry vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    29   59  +21      92.38     5.80    38.34    45.19    83.94    99.90    88.12P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          29   57  +32      92.29     5.59    51.17    47.85    85.92    99.87    91.22P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       29   55  +10      83.12     6.01    17.05     4.82    18.03    93.33    35.75P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          28   48  +13      79.99     6.23    23.77     1.81     8.90    84.46    30.36P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   47  +14      74.58     5.94    20.29     0.16     1.46    57.80    17.20P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          29   47   +4      72.48     6.02     7.06     0.05     0.57    40.29     7.58P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              29   45   +4      68.85     5.94     5.09     0.02     0.17    19.91     4.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Swansea          29   44  +10      73.15     5.98    18.85     0.08     0.72    48.65    12.97P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   43   -1      67.19     6.10     0.24     0.01     0.04    13.38     2.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          29   42  +11      68.70     5.87    16.08     0.01     0.13    21.76     5.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   40   +6      66.29     6.43     8.43     0.01     0.10    13.28     3.17P    0.05R    0.00  
Bristol_City     28   38   +0      63.71     6.25     1.53     0.00     0.01     5.91     1.19P    0.14R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        29   38  -10      56.43     5.81   -17.50     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.05P    3.15R    0.09  
Coventry         29   37   -3      58.28     5.94    -5.84     0.00     0.00     0.77     0.14P    1.35R    0.04  
Blackpool        29   34   -9      54.56     5.89   -13.02     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    6.12R    0.38  
Plymouth         28   33   -6      54.03     6.05   -11.15     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    6.90R    0.52  
Nottm_Forest     29   33   -7      51.47     5.77   -14.72     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   13.49R    1.10  
Barnsley         29   32  -10      50.05     5.72   -17.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.19R    2.08  
Norwich          29   30   -7      49.62     5.90   -13.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.41R    2.59  
Watford          29   30   -9      52.13     6.02   -11.93     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   12.69R    1.31  
Doncaster        28   30  -12      48.12     5.73   -20.37     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   31.95R    4.48  
Derby            28   29  -12      49.50     6.11   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.91R    3.63  
Southampton      29   27  -18      43.11     5.59   -29.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.14R   21.22  
Charlton         29   22  -21      38.06     5.55   -34.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.49R   62.55  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 January 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        27   61  +31      99.37     6.22    50.79    84.29    94.99    99.92    96.65P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   51  +23      86.83     6.41    39.02     7.51    42.00    94.00    58.78P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     27   50  +16      82.92     6.57    27.32     2.30    17.74    82.98    34.55P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       27   50  +15      81.52     6.63    23.93     1.61    13.66    76.55    28.70P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         25   50  +10      83.64     7.25    17.23     3.57    22.34    82.05    35.39P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           28   48  +11      77.63     6.36    18.95     0.38     4.34    55.82    16.37P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            27   45  +12      75.67     6.59    19.31     0.20     2.71    44.36    12.92P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   43   +7      73.57     7.01    11.67     0.12     1.58    31.36     8.38P    0.01R    0.00  
Stockport        27   41   +9      71.33     6.50    15.60     0.03     0.56    20.56     5.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     28   40   -4      64.15     6.39    -5.21     0.00     0.03     2.79     0.52P    0.13R    0.00  
Colchester       27   39   +2      65.94     6.59     3.15     0.00     0.04     5.61     1.17P    0.11R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   26   33   +4      60.81     6.97     3.75     0.00     0.01     1.62     0.37P    1.19R    0.01  
Northampton      27   33   +2      58.64     6.61     1.23     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.16P    1.99R    0.01  
Hartlepool       26   33   -3      58.59     6.92    -6.67     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.11P    2.90R    0.03  
Walsall          26   32   -3      58.76     6.78    -4.25     0.00     0.00     0.66     0.11P    2.31R    0.02  
Carlisle         27   32   -7      57.97     6.68    -7.76     0.00     0.00     0.32     0.06P    3.17R    0.04  
Southend         27   31  -13      52.22     6.40   -21.08     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.74R    0.45  
Yeovil           27   30  -12      50.62     6.31   -19.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.16R    0.71  
Swindon          26   27   -8      51.10     6.62   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   19.53R    0.90  
Leyton_Orient    28   26  -15      45.85     6.08   -21.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.29R    3.73  
Brighton         26   25   -9      49.37     6.73   -13.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.80R    1.51  
Hereford         26   21  -16      40.34     6.35   -28.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    79.26R   20.06  
Cheltenham       26   21  -26      37.88     6.07   -47.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.04R   37.15  
Crewe            26   19  -26      38.05     6.34   -42.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.36R   35.38  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 January 2009, Chesterfield vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              27   50  +16      83.23     6.31    26.64    31.58    66.20    95.05    74.48P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            26   46  +15      80.56     6.58    25.70    18.52    50.36    89.29    61.13P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 28   46  +11      75.83     6.25    19.13     4.66    22.47    71.72    33.77P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           26   44  +18      79.27     6.81    30.44    15.69    44.82    84.88    55.70P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            27   43  +22      78.63     6.42    37.98    13.06    41.89    85.48    54.83P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   43  +19      77.94     6.28    32.40     9.67    36.19    83.46    51.80P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           27   43   +2      68.80     6.55     1.81     0.55     4.16    27.88     7.86P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             26   42  +12      73.40     6.84    18.46     3.24    15.33    56.98    23.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             27   42  +12      73.21     6.64    20.29     2.61    14.06    57.06    23.69P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               27   40   +3      68.07     6.47     6.54     0.31     2.96    24.58     7.03P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         27   36   +3      63.95     6.58     6.07     0.06     0.77    10.43     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            26   36   -6      60.23     6.61   -12.00     0.01     0.20     3.71     0.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         26   34   +4      62.45     6.80     5.69     0.05     0.58     8.32     2.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         28   32  -10      53.59     6.10   -15.06     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P    0.15R    0.01  
Macclesfield         26   32  -16      52.89     6.42   -28.60     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.05P    0.29R    0.01  
Port_Vale            27   30  -14      48.38     6.18   -26.62     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.35R    0.09  
Morecambe            26   28  -10      50.67     6.49   -17.20     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.80R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   26   27  -10      48.92     6.53   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P    1.42R    0.14  
Chester              27   25  -18      43.69     6.09   -30.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.22R    0.81  
Rotherham            26   23   +4      53.51     6.92     9.00     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.14P    0.27R    0.02  
Barnet               27   22  -22      40.80     6.15   -34.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.27R    2.79  
Grimsby              26   21  -19      40.44     6.32   -31.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.95R    3.15  
Bournemouth          27   11   -9      33.42     6.44   -14.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.65R   18.52  
Luton                27    2   -7      25.58     6.55   -11.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.62R   74.41  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 29 January 2009, Cambridge_Utd vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.83     5.84    32.66    70.66    99.50    77.21P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               26   51  +15      85.66     6.88    26.23    13.39    85.77    30.49P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.36     5.69     9.00     0.02    12.21     2.25P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.19     6.65    26.72     5.83    74.49    24.59P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.22     6.32    17.71     1.33    50.13    12.10P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.07     6.06    22.14     0.27    27.48     7.30P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        29   47  +10      74.78     5.98    16.78     0.23    28.75     7.43P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              26   46  +19      83.13     6.72    34.88     7.64    79.32    28.01P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           30   46   +5      69.91     5.78     8.14     0.01     7.78     1.52P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   29   42   -5      63.90     6.09    -7.69     0.00     1.24     0.16P    0.06R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    29   40   +8      66.56     5.97    12.92     0.01     3.30     0.85P    0.00R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.04     7.34    14.42     0.61    28.74     7.84P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.72     6.04     1.34     0.00     0.79     0.15P    0.04R    0.00  
Altrincham           28   37  -11      58.46     6.10   -15.67     0.00     0.12     0.03P    0.72R    0.00  
Mansfield            28   34   +0      59.75     6.30     1.72     0.00     0.33     0.06P    0.37R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.16     5.76    -7.39     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.84R    0.00  
York                 30   33   -2      56.64     5.96     0.69     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.18R    0.00  
Barrow               27   30  -10      52.31     6.28   -16.78     0.00     0.00     0.00P    7.66R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.37     6.09   -22.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.35R    0.07  
Woking               29   29  -12      47.16     5.75   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.32R    0.09  
Salisbury            28   29  -14      45.86     5.87   -27.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.50R    0.10  
Forest_Green         28   28  -13      48.76     6.03   -20.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.07R    0.05  
Lewes                29   17  -38      26.06     4.35   -61.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.93R   91.73  
Northwich            27   16  -19      36.57     6.26   -28.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.97R    7.93  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4