Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 28 January 2009 at 22:05:42 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 January 2009, Blackburn vs Bolton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         22   50  +29      85.84     5.10    49.71    67.78    90.11    97.80    99.67   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         23   48  +31      80.76     5.00    50.30    21.26    65.72    90.03    97.93    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       23   48  +22      77.93     5.24    36.56     9.50    34.71    76.76    93.89    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     23   47  +14      72.31     5.54    21.76     1.28     7.76    26.67    70.77    98.92     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         23   42  +13      67.93     5.44    21.72     0.18     1.68     8.36    33.60    95.78     0.00     0.00  
Everton         23   37   +4      59.49     5.64     6.88     0.00     0.02     0.35     3.18    58.49     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           23   32   +2      53.56     5.57     3.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.42    17.31     0.06R    0.00  
West_Ham        23   32   +0      50.72     5.52    -2.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13     7.61     0.30R    0.02  
Man_City        22   28  +10      52.71     5.75    14.36     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.35    15.91     0.18R    0.01  
Hull            23   27  -15      44.02     5.35   -21.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.38     8.10R    1.22  
Fulham          21   26   +1      47.88     5.98    -0.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     4.04     1.88R    0.20  
Sunderland      23   26   -8      41.91     5.38   -15.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.28    12.96R    1.89  
Tottenham       23   24   -4      41.47     5.50    -8.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.23    14.29R    2.67  
Bolton          23   24   -8      43.59     5.70    -9.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.74     8.57R    1.38  
Portsmouth      22   24  -13      40.42     5.62   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    22.98R    5.43  
Newcastle       23   23  -10      39.85     5.41   -16.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    23.33R    5.34  
Blackburn       22   22  -11      38.16     5.50   -22.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    35.48R   10.18  
Middlesbrough   23   21  -17      34.30     5.13   -27.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    64.73R   28.29  
Stoke           23   21  -18      37.28     5.56   -24.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    42.85R   14.19  
West_Brom       23   21  -22      34.59     5.24   -33.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.30R   29.17  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 January 2009, Coventry vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    29   59  +21      92.27     5.80    38.14    44.42    83.68    99.87    87.78P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          29   57  +32      92.33     5.60    51.19    48.83    86.45    99.86    91.27P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       29   55  +10      82.98     5.99    16.86     4.59    17.53    93.14    35.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          28   48  +13      80.00     6.25    23.78     1.80     9.16    84.52    30.94P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   47  +14      74.47     5.96    20.16     0.19     1.49    57.28    16.94P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          29   47   +4      72.45     6.05     7.04     0.08     0.62    40.29     7.65P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              29   45   +4      68.95     5.98     5.23     0.01     0.16    20.57     4.66P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          29   44  +10      73.10     6.00    18.77     0.06     0.61    48.38    12.84P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   43   -1      67.19     6.06     0.23     0.00     0.07    13.39     2.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          29   42  +11      68.88     5.87    16.37     0.01     0.13    22.56     5.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   40   +6      66.29     6.37     8.42     0.01     0.08    12.94     2.99P    0.04R    0.00  
Bristol_City     28   38   +0      63.72     6.20     1.60     0.00     0.02     5.61     1.16P    0.14R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed        29   38  -10      56.47     5.83   -17.41     0.00     0.00     0.37     0.06P    2.81R    0.10  
Coventry         29   37   -3      58.46     6.01    -5.57     0.00     0.00     0.85     0.14P    1.28R    0.05  
Blackpool        29   34   -9      54.49     5.91   -13.17     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    6.27R    0.47  
Plymouth         28   33   -6      54.06     6.06   -11.13     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P    6.94R    0.46  
Nottm_Forest     29   33   -7      51.39     5.74   -14.87     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   13.59R    0.97  
Barnsley         29   32  -10      50.19     5.76   -17.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    19.77R    2.06  
Norwich          29   30   -7      49.54     5.86   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.61R    2.63  
Watford          29   30   -9      52.18     5.96   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   12.11R    1.18  
Doncaster        28   30  -12      48.22     5.78   -20.22     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    31.49R    4.36  
Derby            28   29  -12      49.40     6.05   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   25.16R    3.53  
Southampton      29   27  -18      42.98     5.55   -29.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.16R   21.66  
Charlton         29   22  -21      38.07     5.56   -34.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.61R   62.54  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 January 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        27   61  +31      99.17     6.32    50.59    83.28    94.56    99.93    96.48P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   51  +23      86.83     6.47    39.05     7.81    41.84    93.98    58.61P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     27   50  +16      82.87     6.57    27.22     2.46    17.73    82.95    34.45P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       27   50  +15      81.62     6.60    24.07     1.85    13.71    77.05    28.33P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         25   50  +10      83.80     7.24    17.48     3.90    22.84    82.02    36.49P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           28   48  +11      77.56     6.37    18.87     0.32     4.26    55.26    16.01P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            27   45  +12      75.62     6.60    19.23     0.23     2.72    43.86    12.59P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   43   +7      73.76     6.97    11.91     0.12     1.62    32.22     8.55P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        27   41   +9      71.45     6.46    15.82     0.03     0.62    20.77     5.94P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     28   40   -4      64.05     6.35    -5.34     0.00     0.01     2.46     0.45P    0.17R    0.00  
Colchester       27   39   +2      66.05     6.60     3.27     0.00     0.07     5.69     1.27P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   26   33   +4      60.74     6.94     3.61     0.00     0.01     1.60     0.36P    1.16R    0.01  
Northampton      27   33   +2      58.51     6.61     1.01     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.12P    2.10R    0.01  
Hartlepool       26   33   -3      58.81     6.94    -6.38     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.12P    2.74R    0.03  
Walsall          26   32   -3      58.74     6.87    -4.31     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.15P    2.53R    0.02  
Carlisle         27   32   -7      57.87     6.66    -7.87     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.07P    3.34R    0.04  
Southend         27   31  -13      52.41     6.49   -20.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    14.37R    0.45  
Yeovil           27   30  -12      50.71     6.29   -19.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.64R    0.74  
Swindon          26   27   -8      51.10     6.57   -14.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   19.05R    0.83  
Leyton_Orient    28   26  -15      45.81     6.03   -21.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.27R    3.65  
Brighton         26   25   -9      49.24     6.73   -13.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   27.43R    1.45  
Hereford         26   21  -16      40.46     6.34   -27.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.70R   18.92  
Cheltenham       26   21  -26      37.68     6.05   -47.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.48R   38.05  
Crewe            26   19  -26      37.87     6.30   -42.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.92R   35.80  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Wednesday 28 January 2009, Chesterfield vs Exeter; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              27   50  +16      83.43     6.32    26.91    32.50    67.22    95.39    75.11P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            26   46  +15      80.51     6.55    25.66    18.21    50.22    89.09    60.73P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 28   46  +11      75.68     6.25    18.93     4.38    21.45    70.93    32.82P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           26   44  +18      79.30     6.74    30.49    15.34    44.43    85.37    55.59P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            27   43  +22      78.52     6.38    37.72    12.51    41.36    85.04    54.19P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   43  +19      78.06     6.32    32.64    10.18    37.50    83.47    52.74P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           27   43   +2      68.92     6.60     1.99     0.59     4.22    28.59     8.05P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             26   42  +12      73.36     6.82    18.36     3.16    15.20    56.74    23.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             27   42  +12      73.25     6.58    20.38     2.65    13.87    57.16    23.85P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               27   40   +3      68.09     6.46     6.50     0.34     2.97    24.75     7.27P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         27   36   +3      63.92     6.58     5.99     0.06     0.72    10.33     2.83P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            26   36   -6      60.00     6.63   -12.41     0.02     0.19     3.51     0.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         26   34   +4      62.53     6.79     5.84     0.06     0.63     8.48     2.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         28   32  -10      53.55     6.08   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.05P    0.17R    0.01  
Macclesfield         26   32  -16      52.75     6.41   -28.79     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.03P    0.31R    0.02  
Port_Vale            27   30  -14      48.41     6.16   -26.59     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.30R    0.11  
Morecambe            26   28  -10      50.75     6.52   -17.05     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.02P    0.74R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   26   27  -10      48.79     6.45   -18.34     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.47R    0.15  
Chester              27   25  -18      43.62     6.08   -30.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.47R    0.76  
Rotherham            26   23   +4      53.60     6.90     9.12     0.00     0.01     0.48     0.13P    0.30R    0.03  
Barnet               27   22  -22      40.70     6.16   -34.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.19R    2.99  
Grimsby              26   21  -19      40.49     6.34   -31.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.18R    3.23  
Bournemouth          27   11   -9      33.59     6.45   -14.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.41R   18.36  
Luton                27    2   -7      25.73     6.49   -10.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.46R   74.30  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 January 2009, Altrincham vs York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.84     5.80    32.60    70.87    99.49    77.29P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               26   51  +15      85.53     6.87    25.96    13.10    84.48    29.93P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.43     5.65     9.13     0.03    12.06     2.20P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.37     6.57    26.96     5.82    74.72    24.59P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        28   49  +11      78.17     6.42    17.67     1.31    48.55    11.90P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.00     6.07    22.00     0.22    26.26     7.10P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              26   46  +19      83.21     6.69    35.09     7.65    79.23    28.13P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        28   46  +10      75.78     6.25    17.67     0.46    34.48     9.04P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   45   +5      69.70     5.95     7.29     0.02     7.63     1.45P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   29   42   -5      63.87     6.13    -7.75     0.00     1.17     0.20P    0.05R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    29   40   +8      66.66     5.91    13.06     0.00     3.04     0.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      74.04     7.23    14.45     0.52    27.72     7.23P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.64     6.08     1.19     0.00     0.72     0.13P    0.06R    0.00  
Altrincham           28   37  -11      58.31     6.14   -15.88     0.00     0.14     0.01P    0.73R    0.00  
Mansfield            28   34   +0      59.81     6.23     1.78     0.00     0.27     0.04P    0.35R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.15     5.79    -7.41     0.00     0.01     0.00     1.99R    0.00  
York                 30   33   -2      56.78     6.00     0.90     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.05R    0.00  
Barrow               27   30  -10      52.21     6.27   -16.96     0.00     0.01     0.00     7.96R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.36     6.05   -22.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.37R    0.07  
Woking               29   29  -12      47.16     5.85   -18.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.59R    0.10  
Salisbury            28   29  -14      46.04     5.87   -26.82     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.96R    0.15  
Forest_Green         28   28  -13      48.79     6.06   -20.17     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.01R    0.10  
Lewes                29   17  -38      26.16     4.43   -61.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.91R   90.80  
Northwich            27   16  -19      36.28     6.24   -28.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.98R    8.76  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4