Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 27 January 2009 at 22:06:04 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 January 2009, Sunderland vs Fulham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         21   47  +24      84.05     5.43    43.99    54.85    81.66    95.39    99.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   47  +22      79.10     5.50    37.63    17.83    45.92    81.92    94.90    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   45  +29      80.44     5.16    50.76    25.15    62.42    89.04    97.27    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   44  +13      71.35     5.79    21.94     1.63     7.15    22.22    63.20    98.29     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   41  +13      68.53     5.73    22.17     0.53     2.77    10.87    40.12    95.96     0.00     0.00  
Everton         22   36   +4      59.66     5.95     6.59     0.01     0.07     0.52     4.60    60.56     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           22   31   +2      53.28     5.83     2.94     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.48    17.29     0.15R    0.01  
West_Ham        22   29   -2      49.00     5.80    -5.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     5.55     1.30R    0.11  
Hull            22   27  -13      45.44     5.72   -19.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.13     6.73R    1.03  
Fulham          21   26   +1      47.81     5.88    -0.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     4.11     2.01R    0.19  
Sunderland      23   26   -8      42.01     5.40   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.29    14.17R    2.20  
Man_City        21   25   +9      52.01     6.04    15.05     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.32    14.71     0.54R    0.05  
Tottenham       23   24   -4      41.39     5.52    -8.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.25    16.21R    3.27  
Portsmouth      21   24  -12      41.35     5.95   -21.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.47    21.59R    5.17  
Bolton          22   23   -8      43.64     5.97   -10.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.02    10.77R    1.92  
Newcastle       22   23   -9      40.49     5.66   -17.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19    23.06R    5.46  
Blackburn       21   21  -11      38.24     5.80   -22.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    38.00R   12.60  
Middlesbrough   22   21  -15      34.66     5.27   -27.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    65.01R   30.05  
West_Brom       22   21  -17      36.06     5.53   -27.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    54.79R   21.78  
Stoke           23   21  -18      37.26     5.58   -24.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    45.66R   16.17  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 January 2009, Barnsley vs Ipswich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    28   59  +22      93.09     6.08    38.36    53.61    87.33    99.86    90.35P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       29   55  +10      82.95     6.05    16.78     4.85    20.20    93.30    37.10P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   54  +31      91.06     5.88    51.06    40.24    82.41    99.75    89.03P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        29   47  +14      74.58     5.89    20.30     0.19     1.82    59.21    18.38P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          29   47   +4      72.46     6.08     7.02     0.09     0.85    41.72     8.37P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +11      77.54     6.58    20.51     0.94     5.91    73.63    24.20P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              29   45   +4      69.07     6.01     5.38     0.01     0.19    22.48     5.12P    0.00     0.00  
Swansea          29   44  +10      73.09     6.03    18.73     0.07     0.88    49.58    13.68P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          29   43   -1      67.19     6.09     0.25     0.00     0.12    14.18     2.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Ipswich          29   42  +11      68.84     5.89    16.28     0.01     0.18    23.65     6.21P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   28   40   +6      66.27     6.36     8.38     0.00     0.10    13.52     3.15P    0.03R    0.00  
Bristol_City     28   38   +0      63.59     6.20     1.35     0.00     0.02     5.92     1.21P    0.18R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        29   38  -10      56.66     5.81   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.05P    2.56R    0.09  
Coventry         28   37   -1      60.46     6.26    -2.58     0.00     0.00     2.40     0.49P    0.64R    0.02  
Blackpool        29   34   -9      54.64     5.84   -12.93     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    6.04R    0.35  
Plymouth         28   33   -6      53.77     6.03   -11.55     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.05P    7.63R    0.54  
Nottm_Forest     29   33   -7      51.45     5.79   -14.79     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.93R    1.11  
Barnsley         29   32  -10      50.00     5.70   -17.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.34R    2.10  
Norwich          29   30   -7      49.47     5.86   -13.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.38R    2.74  
Watford          29   30   -9      52.28     6.01   -11.68     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   12.46R    1.35  
Doncaster        28   30  -12      48.33     5.76   -20.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   30.62R    4.28  
Derby            28   29  -12      49.52     6.13   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   24.99R    3.52  
Southampton      29   27  -18      43.07     5.59   -29.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.76R   21.76  
Charlton         29   22  -21      38.17     5.53   -34.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.43R   62.14  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 January 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        27   61  +31      99.20     6.27    50.59    83.84    94.72    99.94    96.51P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          27   51  +23      86.96     6.41    39.27     7.88    42.46    94.27    59.42P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     27   50  +16      83.06     6.51    27.51     2.55    18.23    83.81    35.00P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       27   50  +15      81.65     6.59    24.14     1.61    13.92    77.29    28.83P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         25   50  +10      83.40     7.30    16.88     3.51    21.36    80.36    34.30P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           28   48  +11      77.51     6.33    18.78     0.32     4.27    54.97    16.17P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            27   45  +12      75.84     6.61    19.52     0.18     2.87    45.41    13.43P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         26   43   +7      73.62     6.98    11.73     0.09     1.54    31.75     8.26P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        27   41   +9      71.18     6.45    15.39     0.01     0.54    19.93     5.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     28   40   -4      63.99     6.34    -5.51     0.00     0.02     2.43     0.38P    0.17R    0.00  
Colchester       27   39   +2      66.05     6.56     3.32     0.00     0.05     5.68     1.20P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   26   33   +4      60.88     7.00     3.90     0.00     0.01     1.74     0.44P    1.28R    0.00  
Northampton      27   33   +2      58.61     6.64     1.15     0.00     0.00     0.56     0.13P    2.09R    0.02  
Hartlepool       26   33   -3      58.57     6.95    -6.70     0.00     0.01     0.69     0.14P    2.86R    0.05  
Walsall          26   32   -3      58.81     6.90    -4.20     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.20P    2.28R    0.03  
Carlisle         27   32   -7      57.82     6.68    -7.96     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    3.38R    0.05  
Southend         27   31  -13      52.37     6.52   -20.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.20R    0.49  
Yeovil           27   30  -12      50.53     6.26   -19.85     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   21.41R    0.79  
Swindon          26   27   -8      51.04     6.59   -15.04     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   19.65R    0.88  
Leyton_Orient    28   26  -15      45.89     6.09   -21.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    48.01R    3.94  
Brighton         26   25   -9      49.32     6.74   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   27.10R    1.49  
Hereford         26   21  -16      40.57     6.40   -27.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.26R   19.22  
Cheltenham       26   21  -26      37.84     6.06   -47.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.98R   37.70  
Crewe            26   19  -26      38.03     6.37   -42.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.24R   35.34  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 January 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Morecambe; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              27   50  +16      83.36     6.32    26.80    31.70    66.74    95.05    74.59P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            26   46  +15      80.51     6.62    25.67    18.25    49.74    88.63    60.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 28   46  +11      75.69     6.27    18.96     4.35    21.35    70.64    32.35P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           26   44  +18      79.34     6.79    30.57    15.39    44.45    85.25    55.60P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            27   43  +22      78.43     6.43    37.63    12.22    40.63    84.56    53.64P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           27   43  +19      78.26     6.31    32.91    10.86    38.18    83.93    53.75P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           27   43   +2      68.76     6.57     1.77     0.55     3.83    27.27     7.54P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             26   42  +12      73.26     6.88    18.24     3.16    14.77    55.53    22.98P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             27   42  +12      73.17     6.55    20.22     2.60    13.60    56.16    23.14P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               26   40   +4      69.42     6.84     7.48     0.80     5.36    31.71    10.50P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         27   36   +3      63.87     6.56     5.96     0.06     0.69    10.00     2.74P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            26   36   -6      60.10     6.66   -12.19     0.01     0.16     3.46     0.56P    0.01R    0.00  
Notts_County         28   32  -10      53.54     6.08   -15.20     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.03P    0.14R    0.01  
Macclesfield         26   32  -16      52.80     6.45   -28.69     0.00     0.01     0.27     0.04P    0.28R    0.02  
Chesterfield         25   31   +3      61.06     7.13     5.03     0.05     0.48     6.61     1.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            27   30  -14      48.21     6.15   -26.92     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    1.50R    0.12  
Morecambe            26   28  -10      50.76     6.51   -17.04     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    0.80R    0.06  
Accrington_Stanley   26   27  -10      48.76     6.56   -18.42     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.54R    0.15  
Chester              27   25  -18      43.57     6.12   -30.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.68R    0.77  
Rotherham            26   23   +4      53.83     6.91     9.48     0.00     0.01     0.53     0.18P    0.27R    0.02  
Barnet               27   22  -22      40.78     6.15   -34.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.72R    2.73  
Grimsby              26   21  -19      40.55     6.29   -31.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.82R    3.01  
Bournemouth          27   11   -9      33.59     6.43   -14.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.57R   18.29  
Luton                27    2   -7      25.66     6.55   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.66R   74.83  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 27 January 2009, Altrincham vs York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        30   68  +25      94.77     5.83    32.52    65.65    99.55    73.41P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               25   51  +17      87.81     7.19    29.54    20.25    90.27    37.38P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            31   50   +8      71.47     5.66     9.21     0.03    12.60     2.22P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              27   49  +16      82.39     6.62    27.02     5.28    75.82    24.42P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         29   47  +16      74.11     6.08    22.20     0.19    28.01     7.22P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              26   46  +19      83.10     6.71    34.93     7.04    79.72    27.51P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        28   46  +10      75.87     6.24    17.81     0.40    36.25     9.56P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        27   46   +9      75.78     6.72    14.50     0.68    35.94     8.28P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   45   +5      69.74     6.05     7.34     0.02     8.55     1.66P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   29   42   -5      64.01     6.10    -7.51     0.00     1.31     0.18P    0.04R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    29   40   +8      66.48     5.96    12.80     0.00     3.21     0.88P    0.01R    0.00  
Kettering            24   39   +7      73.77     7.26    14.06     0.46    27.48     7.06P    0.00     0.00  
Weymouth             29   39   +1      62.63     6.10     1.14     0.00     0.84     0.14P    0.07R    0.00  
Altrincham           28   37  -11      58.41     6.12   -15.77     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.79R    0.00  
Mansfield            28   34   +0      59.59     6.26     1.40     0.00     0.26     0.06P    0.38R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     30   34   -6      55.20     5.78    -7.37     0.00     0.01     0.00P    1.86R    0.00  
York                 30   33   -2      56.83     5.96     1.01     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.06R    0.00  
Barrow               27   30  -10      52.04     6.30   -17.31     0.00     0.01     0.00P    8.45R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic       27   29  -11      47.48     6.03   -22.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.04R    0.07  
Woking               29   29  -12      47.34     5.81   -18.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.53R    0.06  
Salisbury            28   29  -14      45.88     5.88   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    35.62R    0.14  
Forest_Green         28   28  -13      48.67     6.04   -20.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.46R    0.09  
Lewes                29   17  -38      26.09     4.41   -61.49     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.92R   91.49  
Northwich            27   16  -19      36.60     6.33   -28.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.77R    8.13  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4