Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 25 January 2009 at 22:05:49 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 January 2009, Liverpool vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         21   47  +24      84.03     5.41    44.08    54.86    81.44    95.49    99.15    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   47  +22      79.09     5.51    37.69    18.11    46.41    81.76    94.92    99.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   45  +29      80.36     5.20    50.72    24.93    61.97    88.63    97.10    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   44  +13      71.31     5.81    21.82     1.54     7.25    22.17    62.45    98.05     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   41  +13      68.57     5.75    22.22     0.56     2.87    11.33    40.41    95.60     0.00     0.00  
Everton         22   36   +4      59.75     5.97     6.67     0.00     0.06     0.54     4.80    60.05     0.00     0.00  
Wigan           22   31   +2      53.13     5.84     2.69     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.50    16.02     0.13R    0.00  
West_Ham        22   29   -2      48.91     5.81    -5.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.11     5.09     1.20R    0.10  
Hull            22   27  -13      45.51     5.72   -19.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.05     6.14R    0.95  
Fulham          20   26   +2      50.02     6.24     2.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18     8.30     1.08R    0.10  
Man_City        21   25   +9      52.02     6.00    15.01     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.36    13.81     0.44R    0.04  
Portsmouth      21   24  -12      41.14     5.86   -22.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.30    21.04R    5.30  
Bolton          22   23   -8      43.77     6.06    -9.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.07     9.88R    1.94  
Newcastle       22   23   -9      40.44     5.70   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17    22.25R    5.57  
Sunderland      22   23   -9      39.71     5.64   -17.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    25.56R    6.13  
Tottenham       22   21   -6      39.34     5.76   -11.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    27.10R    7.57  
Blackburn       21   21  -11      38.25     5.79   -22.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    36.58R   12.01  
Middlesbrough   22   21  -15      34.66     5.22   -27.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    62.83R   28.92  
Stoke           22   21  -16      38.87     5.91   -22.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    33.59R   10.83  
West_Brom       22   21  -17      36.18     5.55   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    52.17R   20.54  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 January 2009, Blackpool vs Birmingham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    28   59  +22      93.16     6.03    38.57    54.62    87.47    99.85    90.38P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   54  +31      90.86     5.92    50.81    39.34    81.17    99.62    87.81P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       28   52   +9      81.89     6.31    16.60     3.94    16.68    89.14    33.37P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   47  +15      77.36     6.14    23.22     0.69     5.07    73.33    25.49P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          28   47   +7      74.38     6.22    10.86     0.21     1.91    52.60    12.22P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +11      77.67     6.58    20.72     1.08     6.26    72.93    24.09P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   43   +2      69.68     6.40     5.04     0.04     0.39    24.44     4.78P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              28   42   +1      65.55     6.18    -0.04     0.00     0.06     8.94     1.84P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          28   41   +7      71.04     6.24    15.05     0.04     0.42    34.00     8.86P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +7      68.79     6.67    11.07     0.04     0.44    23.17     5.58P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          28   39  +10      67.04     6.17    15.02     0.00     0.13    15.18     4.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        28   38   -9      58.04     6.08   -16.09     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.09P    1.56R    0.02  
Coventry         28   37   -1      60.21     6.30    -2.98     0.00     0.00     2.00     0.40P    0.63R    0.01  
Bristol_City     27   35   -2      61.09     6.47    -1.94     0.00     0.00     2.81     0.58P    0.57R    0.02  
Blackpool        28   34   -6      57.17     6.14    -8.14     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    2.25R    0.08  
Plymouth         27   33   -4      56.31     6.36    -7.75     0.00     0.00     0.52     0.13P    2.81R    0.12  
Barnsley         28   32   -9      51.70     5.99   -16.35     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   11.39R    0.67  
Nottm_Forest     28   30   -8      49.99     6.00   -15.56     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   17.57R    1.16  
Norwich          28   29   -7      50.88     6.14   -12.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   14.08R    1.15  
Derby            27   29  -11      50.09     6.25   -18.54     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   19.50R    1.96  
Watford          28   27  -12      49.72     6.27   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.48R    2.10  
Doncaster        27   27  -13      45.23     5.86   -23.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.64R    6.82  
Southampton      28   26  -18      42.53     5.73   -30.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.23R   16.23  
Charlton         28   19  -22      35.58     5.76   -37.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.24R   69.66  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 January 2009, Bristol_Rovers vs Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        26   60  +31     100.94     6.39    53.16    83.42    95.97    99.96    97.33P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   51  +24      90.26     6.52    43.38    12.37    61.47    97.81    73.64P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           27   48  +13      79.37     6.60    21.47     0.50     6.12    67.59    20.98P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     26   47  +14      82.63     6.77    27.75     1.42    13.66    82.26    32.38P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       26   47  +13      79.52     6.93    21.25     0.66     7.36    67.23    21.07P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         24   47   +8      81.39     7.48    14.29     1.46    12.02    73.14    25.19P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            26   42  +10      74.43     6.84    17.84     0.08     1.57    39.07    10.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport        26   41  +10      72.86     6.77    16.83     0.03     0.90    30.53     8.73P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         25   40   +6      71.77     7.23    10.33     0.06     0.82    25.11     6.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     27   40   -3      66.07     6.60    -3.40     0.00     0.06     5.88     1.08P    0.06R    0.00  
Colchester       26   36   +1      64.41     6.84     2.21     0.00     0.02     4.63     0.98P    0.19R    0.00  
Northampton      26   33   +3      60.17     6.86     2.40     0.00     0.01     1.32     0.32P    0.94R    0.00  
Walsall          25   32   -2      60.64     7.15    -2.45     0.00     0.01     1.70     0.33P    1.24R    0.01  
Hartlepool       25   32   -3      59.74     7.14    -5.48     0.00     0.00     1.32     0.28P    1.67R    0.01  
Carlisle         26   31   -7      57.82     6.93    -8.61     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    2.87R    0.05  
Southend         26   31  -11      53.44     6.72   -19.44     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    9.52R    0.29  
Bristol_Rovers   25   30   +3      60.38     7.21     4.99     0.00     0.00     1.80     0.41P    1.26R    0.01  
Yeovil           26   27  -13      48.52     6.51   -21.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   27.85R    1.76  
Swindon          25   24   -9      48.91     6.90   -16.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.24R    2.07  
Brighton         25   24   -9      48.13     6.83   -16.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   29.41R    2.23  
Leyton_Orient    27   23  -16      42.29     6.08   -25.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.08R   10.77  
Hereford         25   21  -14      42.57     6.67   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.13R   12.09  
Cheltenham       25   21  -25      37.77     6.12   -49.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.57R   37.70  
Crewe            25   19  -24      38.35     6.49   -42.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.97R   33.01  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 January 2009, Accrington_Stanley vs Barnet; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              26   49  +16      84.57     6.65    28.02    37.64    71.63    96.10    78.32P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            25   43  +12      78.41     6.91    21.98    10.77    36.71    80.93    48.38P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 27   43  +10      74.09     6.58    17.95     2.67    15.87    60.98    26.59P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           26   43   +3      71.12     6.89     4.34     1.34     8.02    41.10    13.49P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            26   42  +22      79.89     6.67    39.33    16.58    49.11    88.09    60.91P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           26   42  +19      79.31     6.59    34.05    13.27    44.31    86.62    58.15P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             26   42  +13      74.56     6.84    21.37     3.98    19.04    64.13    29.44P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           25   41  +17      78.07     7.01    30.11    10.77    37.35    80.39    49.53P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               26   40   +4      69.69     6.87     7.85     0.78     5.73    33.47    11.19P    0.00R    0.00  
Rochdale             25   39   +9      71.70     7.17    15.25     2.09    10.97    47.04    18.65P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            25   36   -3      61.72     6.92    -8.60     0.04     0.44     6.26     1.40P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         26   33   +2      61.46     6.81     3.78     0.01     0.28     6.16     1.56P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         27   32   -7      54.69     6.30   -12.65     0.00     0.01     0.47     0.08P    0.09R    0.00  
Chesterfield         25   31   +3      60.93     7.15     4.79     0.06     0.51     6.59     1.86P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         25   31  -16      52.54     6.68   -29.86     0.00     0.01     0.33     0.05P    0.44R    0.02  
Morecambe            25   28   -9      52.36     6.78   -15.84     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.50R    0.05  
Port_Vale            26   27  -17      46.19     6.40   -30.56     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    3.89R    0.37  
Chester              26   25  -15      45.72     6.48   -25.96     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    4.48R    0.42  
Accrington_Stanley   25   24  -11      47.08     6.83   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    3.22R    0.39  
Rotherham            25   23   +5      54.74     7.15     9.75     0.00     0.02     1.02     0.33P    0.20R    0.02  
Barnet               26   21  -22      40.22     6.33   -36.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.00R    3.67  
Grimsby              25   20  -19      39.79     6.58   -33.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.51R    4.33  
Bournemouth          26   10   -9      34.39     6.70   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.81R   17.07  
Luton                26    1   -7      25.72     6.82   -11.61     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.82R   73.64  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 24 January 2009, Barrow vs Kidderminster; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        29   65  +24      94.32     6.06    33.63    60.64    99.17    69.65P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               25   51  +17      87.81     7.10    29.62    20.11    89.89    36.76P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            30   47   +7      69.54     5.88     7.68     0.02     7.61     1.28P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         28   46  +16      74.81     6.31    22.62     0.36    30.93     7.99P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              26   46  +14      81.42     6.86    26.10     4.28    69.00    21.23P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        28   46  +10      75.80     6.20    17.75     0.37    33.97     8.53P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        27   46   +9      75.47     6.64    14.15     0.57    32.33     7.07P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              25   45  +19      85.50     6.80    38.49    12.48    86.74    34.83P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           29   45   +5      69.69     5.98     7.30     0.01     7.59     1.44P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    28   39   +8      66.61     6.29    12.49     0.00     3.80     0.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Kettering            23   39   +8      75.88     7.54    16.12     1.14    36.79     9.96P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   28   39   -9      60.52     6.21   -14.50     0.00     0.34     0.05P    0.38R    0.00  
Weymouth             28   38   +1      63.22     6.31     1.52     0.00     1.06     0.18P    0.12R    0.00  
Altrincham           27   36  -11      59.00     6.36   -15.43     0.00     0.20     0.02P    0.85R    0.00  
Mansfield            27   33   +0      60.30     6.59     1.94     0.00     0.47     0.07P    0.49R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     29   33   -6      55.22     6.01    -7.69     0.00     0.03     0.00     2.43R    0.00  
York                 29   32   -2      57.44     6.22     1.33     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.22R    0.00  
Barrow               26   30   -9      52.12     6.41   -18.77     0.00     0.01     0.00P    9.09R    0.04  
Woking               28   29   -8      50.46     6.18   -11.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.01R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       26   28  -11      47.45     6.31   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    28.16R    0.10  
Salisbury            27   28  -14      46.77     6.17   -26.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.77R    0.11  
Forest_Green         27   27  -13      48.86     6.31   -20.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.90R    0.13  
Lewes                28   17  -36      26.81     4.60   -60.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.89R   84.39  
Northwich            26   15  -19      34.58     6.33   -32.37     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.69R   15.23  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4