Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 23 January 2009 at 22:05:36 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 January 2009, Liverpool vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         21   47  +24      84.16     5.45    44.24    55.05    81.78    95.56    99.03    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   47  +22      79.18     5.48    37.82    17.95    46.15    82.32    95.25    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   45  +29      80.46     5.13    50.77    25.02    62.31    89.01    97.41    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   44  +13      71.25     5.83    21.71     1.49     6.94    21.54    62.19    98.06     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   41  +13      68.53     5.72    22.10     0.47     2.74    10.96    40.18    95.70     0.00     0.00  
Everton         22   36   +4      59.74     5.98     6.69     0.01     0.07     0.54     4.82    59.71     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           22   31   +2      53.06     5.87     2.61     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.50    15.94     0.12R    0.01  
West_Ham        22   29   -2      49.02     5.86    -5.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     5.44     1.28R    0.09  
Hull            22   27  -13      45.43     5.70   -19.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.02     6.25R    0.90  
Fulham          20   26   +2      50.03     6.24     2.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.20     8.29     1.08R    0.11  
Man_City        21   25   +9      51.97     6.03    14.96     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.32    13.80     0.50R    0.04  
Portsmouth      21   24  -12      41.15     5.89   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36    20.95R    5.28  
Bolton          22   23   -8      43.79     6.03    -9.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.12     9.60R    1.83  
Newcastle       22   23   -9      40.46     5.69   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.17    22.09R    5.44  
Sunderland      22   23   -9      39.76     5.56   -17.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    25.00R    5.63  
Tottenham       22   21   -6      39.33     5.73   -11.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    26.99R    7.52  
Blackburn       21   21  -11      38.28     5.80   -22.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    36.52R   11.82  
Middlesbrough   22   21  -15      34.61     5.28   -27.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.32R   29.50  
Stoke           22   21  -16      38.82     5.92   -22.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    33.51R   10.91  
West_Brom       22   21  -17      36.08     5.49   -27.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    52.79R   20.92  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Birmingham vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    28   59  +22      92.98     6.04    38.28    51.31    83.65    99.87    87.67P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   54  +31      90.96     5.92    50.95    38.68    77.09    99.69    85.33P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       27   52  +11      84.53     6.50    20.51     8.11    27.03    94.21    44.15P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   47  +15      77.23     6.13    23.03     0.61     4.10    72.14    23.64P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          28   47   +7      74.32     6.29    10.80     0.20     1.63    51.50    11.17P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +11      77.76     6.53    20.85     1.00     5.39    72.84    22.92P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   43   +2      69.60     6.44     4.90     0.03     0.29    23.74     4.41P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              28   42   +1      65.79     6.19     0.25     0.00     0.07     9.43     1.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea          28   41   +7      70.90     6.32    14.85     0.02     0.33    32.62     8.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +7      68.67     6.69    10.91     0.04     0.32    22.14     5.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          28   39  +10      67.30     6.16    15.38     0.01     0.09    15.84     4.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        28   38   -9      57.99     6.11   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.09P    1.43R    0.02  
Coventry         28   37   -1      60.12     6.21    -3.15     0.00     0.00     1.71     0.35P    0.55R    0.01  
Bristol_City     27   35   -2      61.09     6.44    -1.94     0.00     0.00     2.65     0.55P    0.49R    0.01  
Plymouth         27   33   -4      56.38     6.30    -7.67     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.09P    2.71R    0.11  
Barnsley         28   32   -9      51.62     6.04   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   11.52R    0.72  
Blackpool        27   31   -8      54.27     6.40   -11.87     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.05P    6.38R    0.35  
Nottm_Forest     28   30   -8      49.84     6.02   -15.81     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.59R    1.26  
Norwich          28   29   -7      51.08     6.18   -11.85     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.27R    1.11  
Derby            27   29  -11      50.27     6.29   -18.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.42R    1.77  
Watford          28   27  -12      49.60     6.28   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.79R    2.40  
Doncaster        27   27  -13      45.22     5.84   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    46.96R    6.82  
Southampton      28   26  -18      42.58     5.77   -30.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.73R   16.16  
Charlton         28   19  -22      35.57     5.74   -37.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.12R   69.26  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Leyton_Orient vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        25   57  +29     100.21     6.56    52.14    79.44    94.17    99.95    96.18P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   51  +24      90.36     6.52    43.43    14.08    59.57    98.00    72.52P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     25   47  +16      84.81     7.07    30.96     3.79    21.62    88.74    40.62P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         24   47   +8      81.52     7.50    14.45     1.56    11.70    75.15    25.47P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           26   45  +11      77.47     6.85    18.96     0.31     3.82    58.13    16.10P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       25   44  +12      78.62     7.11    21.34     0.57     5.60    64.31    19.11P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        25   41  +12      75.12     6.99    20.18     0.17     2.12    45.50    13.98P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   40   -1      66.95     6.84    -2.13     0.00     0.09     8.72     1.58P    0.07R    0.00  
Leeds            25   39   +8      71.97     7.17    14.46     0.05     0.83    28.82     7.19P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   37   +3      69.30     7.57     6.08     0.02     0.42    17.62     4.13P    0.05R    0.00  
Colchester       25   35   +1      64.24     7.13     1.19     0.00     0.03     5.29     1.07P    0.34R    0.00  
Hartlepool       25   32   -3      59.27     7.18    -6.31     0.00     0.01     1.29     0.23P    2.06R    0.03  
Walsall          24   31   -2      61.81     7.40    -1.28     0.00     0.02     3.13     0.63P    1.06R    0.01  
Carlisle         25   31   -4      59.72     7.18    -4.64     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.27P    1.82R    0.04  
Southend         25   31  -10      55.85     7.02   -16.89     0.00     0.00     0.34     0.06P    5.65R    0.17  
Northampton      25   30   -1      57.82     7.08    -2.57     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.15P    2.77R    0.06  
Bristol_Rovers   24   29   +3      61.14     7.49     5.58     0.00     0.02     2.84     0.71P    1.24R    0.03  
Swindon          25   24   -9      49.34     6.88   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.92R    2.00  
Yeovil           25   24  -14      46.08     6.75   -23.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.04R    4.91  
Brighton         24   23   -9      48.50     7.10   -16.68     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   28.24R    2.84  
Leyton_Orient    26   23  -15      42.64     6.28   -25.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.80R   11.44  
Hereford         24   20  -14      41.82     6.88   -26.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.99R   15.73  
Cheltenham       24   20  -25      38.00     6.45   -49.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.62R   38.30  
Crewe            24   19  -20      40.08     6.76   -37.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.33R   24.45  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Aldershot vs Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              25   49  +18      87.73     6.75    32.39    48.58    81.63    98.21    86.49P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            24   43  +14      82.20     7.12    27.52    17.81    54.17    90.24    64.08P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           24   41  +18      78.88     7.27    30.61     9.58    37.07    80.68    48.88P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             25   41  +13      75.42     7.09    22.11     3.54    19.57    65.56    30.06P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   40   +9      73.08     6.84    17.92     1.28    11.03    52.56    20.72P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               25   40   +5      71.19     7.03     9.08     0.90     6.88    39.70    12.96P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           25   40   +2      69.24     7.08     2.92     0.44     4.26    29.46     8.34P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            25   39  +21      78.95     6.90    39.44     9.20    39.01    82.82    52.48P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   39  +18      77.94     6.79    33.67     6.75    32.27    79.55    48.27P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   39  +10      72.74     7.37    15.68     1.78    11.99    49.89    19.62P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            24   36   -2      62.27     7.07    -9.00     0.04     0.47     7.05     1.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   32   +2      63.13     7.08     5.73     0.02     0.55     9.04     2.46P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   31   +4      63.62     7.32     8.04     0.07     0.98    11.43     3.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         26   29   -9      53.08     6.59   -14.47     0.00     0.01     0.22     0.05P    0.13R    0.00  
Macclesfield         24   28  -18      49.10     6.76   -35.28     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.79R    0.06  
Port_Vale            25   27  -15      47.59     6.64   -28.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00     1.22R    0.12  
Morecambe            24   25  -10      48.90     6.99   -19.81     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.97R    0.11  
Chester              25   24  -15      45.24     6.66   -27.56     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.96R    0.32  
Rotherham            24   23   +8      58.50     7.41    16.33     0.00     0.11     3.36     1.17P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   23  -11      48.20     7.14   -18.61     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.37R    0.20  
Barnet               25   20  -22      40.09     6.63   -37.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.26R    2.74  
Grimsby              24   17  -22      35.82     6.58   -40.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.86R    8.60  
Bournemouth          25    7  -11      30.76     6.89   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.67R   27.19  
Luton                25    0   -7      25.60     7.01   -12.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.73R   60.65  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 23 January 2009, Rushden_&_D'monds vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        28   64  +24      95.94     6.22    35.65    66.93    99.27    74.17P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               25   51  +17      87.77     7.12    29.71    16.50    88.27    33.56P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         27   46  +17      77.43     6.52    25.57     0.78    43.22    12.00P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              26   46  +14      81.48     6.85    26.25     3.36    66.20    19.25P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        26   46  +10      77.73     7.02    16.48     1.13    42.43     9.67P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        28   46  +10      75.66     6.23    17.54     0.22    29.84     7.24P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              25   45  +19      85.50     6.81    38.44    10.18    84.48    32.52P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            29   44   +5      67.55     6.15     5.07     0.00     4.19     0.69P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   42   +4      66.98     6.22     4.53     0.01     3.37     0.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    28   39   +8      66.53     6.24    12.37     0.00     2.85     0.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Kettering            23   39   +8      75.99     7.55    16.32     0.89    34.53     9.34P    0.00     0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   27   36  -10      58.45     6.47   -16.27     0.00     0.15     0.03P    1.11R    0.00  
Weymouth             27   35   -2      61.40     6.51    -1.81     0.00     0.48     0.11P    0.33R    0.00  
Altrincham           26   35  -11      58.10     6.52   -17.63     0.00     0.20     0.02P    1.27R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     28   33   -5      56.81     6.26    -6.24     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.63R    0.00  
York                 28   32   -1      59.33     6.57     3.14     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.80R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   30   -1      59.41     6.75     1.98     0.00     0.31     0.06P    0.81R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       26   28  -11      47.62     6.31   -22.57     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.55R    0.18  
Salisbury            26   28  -12      48.26     6.50   -23.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.13R    0.23  
Barrow               25   27  -10      49.76     6.65   -21.32     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.37R    0.15  
Forest_Green         27   27  -13      48.89     6.27   -20.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.92R    0.17  
Woking               27   26   -9      48.63     6.48   -13.09     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.14R    0.15  
Lewes                27   17  -35      27.50     4.85   -61.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.74R   85.57  
Northwich            25   15  -16      36.14     6.62   -29.01     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.16R   13.54  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4