Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 22 January 2009 at 22:05:51 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 January 2009, Liverpool vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         21   47  +24      83.90     5.44    43.87    54.15    81.34    95.24    98.96    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   47  +22      79.04     5.46    37.60    17.81    45.69    81.51    94.82    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   45  +29      80.44     5.15    50.84    25.87    62.67    88.94    97.31    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   44  +13      71.32     5.81    21.78     1.61     7.13    21.95    61.82    98.03     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   41  +13      68.71     5.76    22.44     0.55     3.12    11.73    41.27    95.73     0.00     0.00  
Everton         22   36   +4      59.76     5.96     6.71     0.00     0.06     0.56     4.76    59.47     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           22   31   +2      53.16     5.89     2.73     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.44    16.21     0.15R    0.01  
West_Ham        22   29   -2      49.08     5.89    -5.06     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     5.46     1.22R    0.10  
Hull            22   27  -13      45.44     5.66   -19.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.99     6.09R    0.94  
Fulham          20   26   +2      49.97     6.29     1.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.20     8.29     1.13R    0.10  
Man_City        21   25   +9      52.07     6.06    15.18     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.33    13.90     0.54R    0.05  
Portsmouth      21   24  -12      41.29     5.91   -21.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35    20.32R    4.80  
Bolton          22   23   -8      43.53     5.99   -10.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.93    10.43R    2.09  
Newcastle       22   23   -9      40.37     5.72   -17.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21    22.70R    5.84  
Sunderland      22   23   -9      39.84     5.63   -17.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    24.65R    5.74  
Tottenham       22   21   -6      39.43     5.76   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    26.57R    7.37  
Blackburn       21   21  -11      38.17     5.80   -22.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    36.88R   12.37  
Middlesbrough   22   21  -15      34.79     5.24   -27.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.65R   27.99  
Stoke           22   21  -16      38.69     5.86   -22.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    34.30R   11.11  
West_Brom       22   21  -17      36.03     5.51   -27.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    53.35R   21.50  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Birmingham vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    28   59  +22      93.20     6.02    38.65    52.90    84.10    99.85    88.11P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   54  +31      90.85     5.95    50.72    37.03    76.31    99.65    84.70P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       27   52  +11      84.51     6.50    20.47     8.06    26.70    94.22    43.26P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   47  +15      77.27     6.14    23.07     0.63     4.31    72.25    24.02P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          28   47   +7      74.41     6.26    10.93     0.22     1.80    51.77    11.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +11      77.92     6.61    21.08     1.09     5.68    73.35    23.93P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   43   +2      69.48     6.40     4.71     0.02     0.24    22.96     4.24P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              28   42   +1      65.66     6.22     0.10     0.01     0.06     9.20     1.84P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          28   41   +7      71.08     6.26    15.13     0.02     0.39    33.51     8.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +7      68.64     6.70    10.84     0.02     0.31    21.99     5.04P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          28   39  +10      67.16     6.16    15.16     0.00     0.10    15.09     3.87P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        28   38   -9      57.96     6.08   -16.22     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.11P    1.40R    0.03  
Coventry         28   37   -1      60.24     6.27    -2.98     0.00     0.00     1.95     0.39P    0.54R    0.00  
Bristol_City     27   35   -2      60.96     6.46    -2.11     0.00     0.01     2.59     0.51P    0.56R    0.02  
Plymouth         27   33   -4      56.28     6.39    -7.83     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.11P    2.95R    0.11  
Barnsley         28   32   -9      51.60     5.99   -16.49     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.36R    0.70  
Blackpool        27   31   -8      54.44     6.38   -11.60     0.00     0.00     0.23     0.04P    5.87R    0.33  
Nottm_Forest     28   30   -8      49.63     5.94   -16.13     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   18.16R    1.23  
Norwich          28   29   -7      51.02     6.19   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   13.42R    1.11  
Derby            27   29  -11      50.39     6.30   -18.11     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   17.90R    1.63  
Watford          28   27  -12      49.70     6.25   -16.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.35R    2.13  
Doncaster        27   27  -13      45.17     5.89   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.51R    7.13  
Southampton      28   26  -18      42.59     5.78   -30.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.78R   15.91  
Charlton         28   19  -22      35.51     5.75   -37.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.15R   69.67  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Leyton_Orient vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        25   57  +29     100.19     6.61    52.15    79.55    94.20    99.94    96.16P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   51  +24      90.29     6.56    43.39    13.92    59.05    98.02    71.71P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     25   47  +16      84.79     7.00    30.95     3.51    21.73    88.99    40.73P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         24   47   +8      81.65     7.45    14.64     1.85    12.16    76.01    25.99P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           26   45  +11      77.34     6.86    18.75     0.32     3.67    57.49    16.06P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       25   44  +12      78.60     7.08    21.33     0.64     5.78    64.46    19.26P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        25   41  +12      74.97     7.04    19.92     0.13     1.94    45.05    13.81P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   40   -1      66.84     6.80    -2.35     0.01     0.08     8.47     1.67P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds            25   39   +8      72.04     7.11    14.55     0.05     0.92    28.98     7.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   37   +3      69.04     7.57     5.60     0.02     0.39    17.05     4.07P    0.05R    0.00  
Colchester       25   35   +1      64.30     7.13     1.25     0.00     0.03     5.39     1.08P    0.29R    0.00  
Hartlepool       25   32   -3      59.39     7.17    -6.12     0.00     0.01     1.25     0.24P    1.98R    0.03  
Walsall          24   31   -2      61.82     7.46    -1.20     0.00     0.02     3.27     0.76P    1.02R    0.03  
Carlisle         25   31   -4      59.78     7.21    -4.52     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.31P    1.80R    0.02  
Southend         25   31  -10      55.88     7.11   -16.84     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.04P    5.88R    0.17  
Northampton      25   30   -1      57.89     7.09    -2.45     0.00     0.00     0.86     0.19P    2.84R    0.08  
Bristol_Rovers   24   29   +3      61.21     7.49     5.73     0.00     0.02     2.97     0.64P    1.25R    0.03  
Swindon          25   24   -9      49.26     6.91   -16.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.27R    2.05  
Yeovil           25   24  -14      46.06     6.72   -23.89     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    42.14R    5.08  
Brighton         24   23   -9      48.55     7.17   -16.66     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   28.34R    2.87  
Leyton_Orient    26   23  -15      42.76     6.32   -25.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.22R   11.02  
Hereford         24   20  -14      41.77     6.89   -26.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.62R   16.17  
Cheltenham       24   20  -25      38.14     6.44   -48.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.19R   37.65  
Crewe            24   19  -20      40.08     6.80   -37.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.06R   24.79  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Aldershot vs Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              25   49  +18      87.98     6.75    32.72    49.63    82.63    98.37    87.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            24   43  +14      82.20     7.17    27.54    17.72    54.14    89.88    64.22P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           24   41  +18      79.11     7.28    30.93     9.92    38.58    81.26    49.85P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             25   41  +13      75.31     7.12    21.94     3.33    19.20    64.83    29.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   40   +9      73.16     6.76    18.03     1.29    11.03    52.81    21.03P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               25   40   +5      71.21     7.06     9.13     0.84     7.14    40.04    13.36P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           25   40   +2      69.22     7.10     2.88     0.42     4.33    29.71     8.55P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            25   39  +21      78.85     6.88    39.29     8.83    38.45    82.86    52.20P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   39  +18      77.71     6.80    33.31     6.19    30.60    78.67    46.17P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   39  +10      72.59     7.36    15.38     1.71    11.66    49.17    19.13P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            24   36   -2      62.35     7.10    -8.84     0.03     0.57     7.45     1.56P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   32   +2      63.05     7.06     5.64     0.03     0.53     8.84     2.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         24   31   +4      63.77     7.36     8.28     0.06     1.03    12.10     3.35P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         26   29   -9      52.99     6.57   -14.60     0.00     0.01     0.29     0.06P    0.12R    0.01  
Macclesfield         24   28  -18      49.17     6.75   -35.16     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.78R    0.05  
Port_Vale            25   27  -15      47.52     6.69   -28.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.31R    0.12  
Morecambe            24   25  -10      48.88     6.92   -19.77     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.91R    0.10  
Chester              25   24  -15      45.32     6.67   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P    2.92R    0.31  
Rotherham            24   23   +8      58.55     7.37    16.43     0.00     0.10     3.44     1.19P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   23  -11      48.07     7.08   -18.79     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.39R    0.20  
Barnet               25   20  -22      39.97     6.56   -37.45     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.27R    2.74  
Grimsby              24   17  -22      35.71     6.55   -40.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.56R    9.09  
Bournemouth          25    7  -11      30.84     6.86   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.30R   26.83  
Luton                25    0   -7      25.67     7.05   -12.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.39R   60.54  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 22 January 2009, Wrexham vs Cambridge_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        28   64  +24      95.99     6.20    35.78    67.20    99.34    74.49P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               25   51  +17      87.92     7.08    29.93    16.71    88.62    33.72P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         27   46  +17      77.30     6.54    25.36     0.77    41.73    11.46P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              26   46  +14      81.42     6.77    26.16     3.23    65.55    19.18P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        26   46  +10      77.63     6.93    16.31     1.01    41.26     9.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        28   46  +10      75.73     6.23    17.63     0.21    29.93     7.37P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              25   45  +19      85.39     6.81    38.31    10.04    84.42    31.78P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            29   44   +5      67.71     6.17     5.34     0.00     4.36     0.78P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   42   +4      66.97     6.19     4.50     0.00     3.29     0.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Kettering            23   39   +8      76.00     7.54    16.35     0.82    34.38     9.33P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    27   38   +8      68.31     6.51    14.42     0.01     5.74     1.48P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   27   36  -10      58.64     6.48   -16.04     0.00     0.16     0.02P    0.95R    0.00  
Weymouth             27   35   -2      61.35     6.48    -1.92     0.00     0.52     0.09P    0.24R    0.00  
Altrincham           26   35  -11      57.81     6.48   -18.09     0.00     0.19     0.03P    1.31R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     28   33   -5      56.58     6.29    -6.65     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.69R    0.01  
York                 28   32   -1      59.47     6.56     3.36     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.64R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   30   -1      59.34     6.82     1.90     0.00     0.28     0.05P    0.82R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       26   28  -11      47.63     6.34   -22.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.51R    0.20  
Salisbury            26   28  -12      48.20     6.40   -23.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.34R    0.20  
Barrow               25   27  -10      49.85     6.68   -21.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.66R    0.20  
Woking               27   26   -9      48.50     6.48   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.13R    0.18  
Forest_Green         26   26  -13      48.01     6.49   -22.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.03R    0.32  
Lewes                27   17  -35      27.59     4.92   -60.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.64R   85.27  
Northwich            25   15  -16      36.30     6.62   -28.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.02R   13.61  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4