Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 21 January 2009 at 22:05:39 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 January 2009, Liverpool vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         21   47  +24      83.91     5.50    43.88    54.00    81.12    95.09    98.99   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   47  +22      79.24     5.47    37.92    18.50    47.14    82.47    95.13    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   45  +29      80.36     5.14    50.67    25.41    61.88    88.97    97.24    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   44  +13      71.29     5.80    21.79     1.57     6.93    21.82    62.51    98.04     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   41  +13      68.60     5.73    22.29     0.51     2.86    11.08    40.37    95.81     0.00     0.00  
Everton         22   36   +4      59.72     5.92     6.67     0.01     0.07     0.51     4.60    59.72     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           22   31   +2      53.19     5.83     2.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.46    16.25     0.15R    0.00  
West_Ham        22   29   -2      49.01     5.86    -5.20     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     5.27     1.26R    0.12  
Hull            22   27  -13      45.42     5.70   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.99     6.35R    1.02  
Fulham          20   26   +2      50.05     6.25     2.11     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.21     8.41     1.05R    0.09  
Man_City        21   25   +9      51.86     6.06    14.78     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.39    13.48     0.53R    0.05  
Portsmouth      21   24  -12      41.19     5.91   -21.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.35    20.92R    5.11  
Bolton          22   23   -8      43.78     6.04    -9.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.08     9.78R    1.86  
Newcastle       22   23   -9      40.50     5.68   -17.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    21.68R    5.36  
Sunderland      22   23   -9      39.76     5.62   -17.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    25.03R    5.97  
Tottenham       22   21   -6      39.38     5.75   -11.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    26.81R    7.48  
Blackburn       21   21  -11      38.30     5.79   -22.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    36.48R   12.10  
Middlesbrough   22   21  -15      34.70     5.24   -27.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.53R   28.52  
Stoke           22   21  -16      38.75     5.90   -22.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    34.41R   11.02  
West_Brom       22   21  -17      36.05     5.51   -27.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    53.03R   21.28  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Birmingham vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    28   59  +22      93.16     6.01    38.54    52.32    84.11    99.86    87.87P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   54  +31      90.99     5.93    50.95    37.85    77.29    99.62    85.45P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       27   52  +11      84.52     6.46    20.47     7.97    26.36    94.44    43.41P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   47  +15      77.21     6.15    23.04     0.57     4.16    71.84    24.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          28   47   +7      74.36     6.27    10.85     0.22     1.62    51.67    11.38P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +11      77.72     6.53    20.81     0.96     5.38    72.99    23.02P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   43   +2      69.67     6.39     5.02     0.02     0.29    23.94     4.52P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              28   42   +1      65.83     6.20     0.31     0.01     0.06     9.61     2.00P    0.03R    0.00  
Swansea          28   41   +7      71.02     6.25    15.04     0.02     0.36    33.06     8.26P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +7      68.47     6.67    10.60     0.04     0.28    21.22     4.87P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          28   39  +10      67.27     6.13    15.34     0.01     0.09    15.56     4.05P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        28   38   -9      57.83     6.07   -16.38     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.09P    1.52R    0.03  
Coventry         28   37   -1      60.14     6.29    -3.09     0.00     0.00     1.92     0.34P    0.57R    0.01  
Bristol_City     27   35   -2      61.12     6.48    -1.89     0.00     0.00     2.66     0.55P    0.47R    0.01  
Plymouth         27   33   -4      56.32     6.42    -7.77     0.00     0.00     0.57     0.13P    2.83R    0.10  
Barnsley         28   32   -9      51.81     5.99   -16.24     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   10.66R    0.65  
Blackpool        27   31   -8      54.22     6.37   -11.92     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    6.29R    0.32  
Nottm_Forest     28   30   -8      49.72     5.92   -16.01     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   18.19R    1.25  
Norwich          28   29   -7      50.96     6.13   -12.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    13.42R    1.17  
Derby            27   29  -11      50.18     6.30   -18.44     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   18.93R    1.88  
Watford          28   27  -12      49.67     6.27   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   20.38R    2.18  
Doncaster        27   27  -13      45.20     5.90   -23.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.19R    7.25  
Southampton      28   26  -18      42.65     5.70   -30.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.54R   15.75  
Charlton         28   19  -22      35.63     5.76   -37.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.95R   69.40  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Leyton_Orient vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        25   57  +29     100.26     6.63    52.28    79.75    94.02    99.92    96.07P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   51  +24      90.27     6.55    43.32    13.72    59.14    98.00    72.18P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     25   47  +16      84.87     7.01    31.09     3.64    22.06    89.35    41.51P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         24   47   +8      81.36     7.49    14.23     1.65    11.36    74.70    24.74P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           26   45  +11      77.38     6.84    18.78     0.29     3.69    57.95    16.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       25   44  +12      78.78     7.16    21.62     0.71     6.28    65.54    20.00P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        25   41  +12      74.91     6.94    19.84     0.14     1.99    44.37    13.45P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   40   -1      66.73     6.80    -2.56     0.00     0.08     8.30     1.43P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds            25   39   +8      72.04     7.11    14.54     0.07     0.88    29.18     7.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   37   +3      68.99     7.51     5.58     0.03     0.40    16.65     3.74P    0.06R    0.00  
Colchester       25   35   +1      64.46     7.22     1.48     0.00     0.04     6.01     1.22P    0.36R    0.00  
Hartlepool       25   32   -3      59.35     7.17    -6.17     0.00     0.01     1.30     0.27P    2.00R    0.04  
Walsall          24   31   -2      61.97     7.38    -1.05     0.00     0.01     3.16     0.71P    0.97R    0.02  
Carlisle         25   31   -4      59.78     7.14    -4.53     0.00     0.00     1.35     0.26P    1.63R    0.03  
Southend         25   31  -10      55.80     7.05   -17.01     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P    5.99R    0.16  
Northampton      25   30   -1      57.80     7.06    -2.60     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.16P    2.85R    0.09  
Bristol_Rovers   24   29   +3      61.20     7.59     5.73     0.00     0.03     3.10     0.75P    1.32R    0.03  
Swindon          25   24   -9      49.15     6.90   -16.50     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   25.03R    2.17  
Yeovil           25   24  -14      46.02     6.78   -23.98     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    43.26R    5.25  
Brighton         24   23   -9      48.60     7.12   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   27.83R    2.71  
Leyton_Orient    26   23  -15      42.62     6.24   -25.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.99R   11.54  
Hereford         24   20  -14      42.02     6.95   -26.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.04R   15.69  
Cheltenham       24   20  -25      38.10     6.45   -48.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.07R   37.92  
Crewe            24   19  -20      40.20     6.79   -36.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.55R   24.35  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Aldershot vs Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              25   49  +18      87.75     6.73    32.46    47.93    81.51    98.16    86.42P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            24   43  +14      82.46     7.06    27.93    18.50    55.15    90.90    65.21P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           24   41  +18      79.30     7.24    31.27    10.03    39.01    82.29    50.78P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             25   41  +13      75.56     7.10    22.32     3.58    19.97    65.92    30.27P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   40   +9      73.00     6.76    17.75     1.14    10.27    52.03    20.03P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               25   40   +5      71.14     7.03     9.05     0.75     6.71    39.82    12.96P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           25   40   +2      69.21     7.18     2.82     0.51     4.39    29.33     8.36P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            25   39  +21      79.05     6.87    39.66     9.24    39.01    83.39    52.54P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   39  +18      77.84     6.85    33.52     6.41    30.99    78.56    46.94P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   39  +10      72.41     7.39    15.10     1.77    10.90    47.88    18.44P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            24   36   -2      62.35     7.05    -8.88     0.04     0.49     7.22     1.44P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   32   +2      62.86     7.13     5.34     0.02     0.48     8.69     2.27P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   31   +4      63.71     7.37     8.20     0.06     1.02    12.00     3.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         26   29   -9      53.30     6.60   -14.09     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.04P    0.11R    0.02  
Macclesfield         24   28  -18      49.02     6.73   -35.47     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.75R    0.04  
Port_Vale            25   27  -15      47.35     6.62   -28.44     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    1.30R    0.14  
Morecambe            24   25  -10      48.83     6.97   -19.94     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    0.99R    0.15  
Chester              25   24  -15      45.29     6.64   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.78R    0.39  
Rotherham            24   23   +8      58.40     7.36    16.21     0.01     0.09     3.25     1.04P    0.04R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   23  -11      48.18     7.07   -18.67     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.37R    0.22  
Barnet               25   20  -22      39.68     6.56   -37.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.32R    3.12  
Grimsby              24   17  -22      35.84     6.55   -40.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.04R    8.98  
Bournemouth          25    7  -11      30.92     6.78   -18.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.26R   27.04  
Luton                25    0   -7      25.85     7.03   -11.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.04R   59.91  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Oxford_Utd vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        28   64  +24      95.90     6.25    35.67    68.34    99.25    75.51P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               25   51  +17      88.01     7.07    30.05    17.67    88.84    34.53P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         27   46  +17      77.41     6.59    25.53     0.87    42.46    11.57P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              26   46  +14      81.38     6.83    26.08     3.38    65.18    19.08P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   46  +12      77.31     6.47    19.99     0.71    39.94    10.70P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        26   46  +10      77.79     6.98    16.60     1.22    42.03     9.94P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            29   44   +5      67.34     6.18     4.74     0.01     3.65     0.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham              24   42  +17      83.42     7.13    35.50     6.81    75.34    26.65P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   42   +4      67.01     6.20     4.57     0.01     3.23     0.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Kettering            23   39   +8      75.91     7.63    16.28     0.98    33.59     9.23P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    27   38   +8      68.05     6.45    14.03     0.01     5.13     1.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   27   36  -10      58.41     6.55   -16.40     0.00     0.15     0.02P    1.22R    0.00  
Weymouth             27   35   -2      61.55     6.53    -1.61     0.00     0.55     0.13P    0.31R    0.00  
Altrincham           26   35  -11      57.77     6.51   -18.08     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.41R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     28   33   -5      56.69     6.29    -6.44     0.00     0.06     0.00P    1.70R    0.00  
York                 28   32   -1      59.47     6.57     3.38     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.71R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   30   -1      59.45     6.72     2.11     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.80R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       26   28  -11      47.75     6.34   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.34R    0.18  
Salisbury            26   28  -12      48.44     6.46   -23.13     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.47R    0.16  
Barrow               25   27  -10      49.67     6.67   -21.45     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.25R    0.22  
Woking               27   26   -9      48.64     6.50   -13.08     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.60R    0.18  
Forest_Green         26   26  -13      47.99     6.52   -22.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.54R    0.30  
Lewes                27   17  -35      27.62     4.89   -60.87     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.70R   85.39  
Northwich            25   15  -16      36.38     6.67   -28.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.93R   13.55  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4