Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 20 January 2009 at 22:05:51 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 19 January 2009, Liverpool vs Everton; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         21   47  +24      83.97     5.46    43.95    54.25    81.39    95.27    99.05    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       22   47  +22      79.06     5.53    37.62    18.10    45.68    81.58    94.89    99.96     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   45  +29      80.47     5.15    50.79    25.51    63.04    89.14    97.30    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   44  +13      71.20     5.86    21.67     1.61     6.84    21.83    62.05    98.07     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   41  +13      68.63     5.76    22.30     0.53     2.99    11.57    41.15    95.81     0.00     0.00  
Everton         22   36   +4      59.61     5.92     6.50     0.00     0.06     0.53     4.43    58.95     0.00R    0.00  
Wigan           22   31   +2      53.15     5.84     2.75     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.48    16.38     0.13R    0.00  
West_Ham        22   29   -2      49.01     5.88    -5.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     5.42     1.27R    0.10  
Hull            22   27  -13      45.41     5.70   -19.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.04     6.24R    1.02  
Fulham          20   26   +2      50.00     6.26     2.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22     8.66     1.04R    0.12  
Man_City        21   25   +9      51.88     6.03    14.78     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.34    13.69     0.49R    0.08  
Portsmouth      21   24  -12      41.24     5.92   -21.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42    20.76R    5.08  
Bolton          22   23   -8      43.84     6.00    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.98     9.72R    1.90  
Newcastle       22   23   -9      40.38     5.67   -17.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.18    22.75R    5.56  
Sunderland      22   23   -9      39.77     5.63   -17.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    25.50R    6.09  
Tottenham       22   21   -6      39.41     5.74   -11.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    26.59R    7.49  
Blackburn       21   21  -11      38.36     5.81   -22.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    35.65R   11.71  
Middlesbrough   22   21  -15      34.68     5.25   -27.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.11R   28.90  
Stoke           22   21  -16      38.71     5.90   -22.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    34.40R   11.47  
West_Brom       22   21  -17      36.22     5.53   -27.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    52.33R   20.48  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Birmingham vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    28   59  +22      93.14     6.08    38.54    51.57    84.02    99.83    87.88P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   54  +31      91.10     5.91    51.20    39.00    77.73    99.67    85.96P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       27   52  +11      84.41     6.49    20.32     7.72    25.92    94.09    42.67P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   47  +15      77.25     6.10    23.06     0.57     4.18    72.29    24.01P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          28   47   +7      74.40     6.26    10.88     0.20     1.74    51.92    11.41P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +11      77.69     6.54    20.77     0.86     5.22    72.57    22.87P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   43   +2      69.56     6.46     4.82     0.02     0.30    23.37     4.43P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              28   42   +1      65.68     6.13     0.10     0.00     0.04     8.83     1.81P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea          28   41   +7      71.12     6.29    15.14     0.03     0.44    33.78     8.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +7      68.77     6.68    11.06     0.03     0.30    22.60     5.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          28   39  +10      67.07     6.15    15.01     0.01     0.08    14.94     3.78P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        28   38   -9      57.79     6.06   -16.44     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.11P    1.59R    0.02  
Coventry         28   37   -1      60.16     6.29    -3.07     0.00     0.00     1.86     0.34P    0.57R    0.01  
Bristol_City     27   35   -2      61.18     6.44    -1.73     0.00     0.01     2.75     0.59P    0.44R    0.01  
Plymouth         27   33   -4      56.41     6.35    -7.63     0.00     0.00     0.51     0.10P    2.69R    0.11  
Barnsley         28   32   -9      51.60     5.97   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   11.31R    0.66  
Blackpool        27   31   -8      54.19     6.35   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.04P    6.38R    0.35  
Nottm_Forest     28   30   -8      49.86     5.98   -15.79     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.79R    1.26  
Norwich          28   29   -7      51.01     6.16   -11.99     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.15R    1.19  
Derby            27   29  -11      50.25     6.32   -18.26     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   18.42R    1.84  
Watford          28   27  -12      49.64     6.29   -16.51     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    20.51R    2.28  
Doncaster        27   27  -13      45.17     5.85   -23.28     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   47.17R    7.13  
Southampton      28   26  -18      42.51     5.75   -30.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.13R   16.66  
Charlton         28   19  -22      35.66     5.79   -37.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.81R   68.50  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Leyton_Orient vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        25   57  +29     100.25     6.60    52.19    79.96    94.13    99.93    96.13P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          26   51  +24      90.28     6.54    43.33    13.42    58.77    98.03    71.84P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     25   47  +16      84.80     7.03    30.95     3.61    21.87    89.01    40.67P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         24   47   +8      81.39     7.46    14.24     1.73    11.40    74.77    24.83P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           26   45  +11      77.35     6.87    18.72     0.37     3.93    57.43    16.14P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       25   44  +12      78.77     7.14    21.66     0.63     6.24    65.17    19.93P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        25   41  +12      75.10     7.02    20.20     0.20     2.15    45.56    14.10P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   40   -1      66.46     6.80    -2.95     0.00     0.09     7.47     1.33P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds            25   39   +8      72.13     7.14    14.71     0.05     0.91    29.42     7.57P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   37   +3      69.12     7.55     5.78     0.03     0.41    17.17     3.99P    0.04R    0.00  
Colchester       25   35   +1      64.35     7.14     1.29     0.00     0.04     5.53     1.08P    0.28R    0.00  
Hartlepool       25   32   -3      59.36     7.16    -6.14     0.00     0.01     1.17     0.21P    1.98R    0.05  
Walsall          24   31   -2      61.91     7.47    -1.13     0.00     0.01     3.37     0.71P    0.99R    0.02  
Carlisle         25   31   -4      59.75     7.17    -4.58     0.00     0.00     1.42     0.32P    1.77R    0.03  
Southend         25   31  -10      55.95     7.08   -16.76     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.06P    5.72R    0.17  
Northampton      25   30   -1      57.69     7.10    -2.76     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.19P    2.90R    0.06  
Bristol_Rovers   24   29   +3      61.36     7.60     6.02     0.00     0.02     3.38     0.90P    1.28R    0.04  
Swindon          25   24   -9      49.23     6.87   -16.31     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.44R    2.03  
Yeovil           25   24  -14      46.06     6.76   -23.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.62R    5.20  
Brighton         24   23   -9      48.34     7.21   -16.97     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    29.44R    3.17  
Leyton_Orient    26   23  -15      42.97     6.34   -25.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    60.96R   10.68  
Hereford         24   20  -14      41.95     6.95   -26.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    65.75R   15.58  
Cheltenham       24   20  -25      38.04     6.38   -48.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.72R   37.93  
Crewe            24   19  -20      40.07     6.83   -37.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.05R   25.04  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Aldershot vs Notts_County; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              25   49  +18      87.93     6.70    32.69    49.53    82.48    98.26    87.12P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            24   43  +14      82.19     7.12    27.56    17.22    54.00    90.12    64.08P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           24   41  +18      79.37     7.30    31.31    10.77    39.65    82.27    51.30P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             25   41  +13      75.61     7.06    22.36     3.57    19.98    66.62    30.64P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   40   +9      73.15     6.79    18.04     1.17    10.86    52.90    20.80P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               25   40   +5      71.14     7.07     9.02     0.79     6.81    39.87    13.08P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           25   40   +2      69.07     7.12     2.60     0.43     4.19    28.86     8.03P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            25   39  +21      78.90     6.90    39.39     8.79    38.34    82.79    52.11P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   39  +18      77.68     6.79    33.25     5.96    30.47    78.37    46.32P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   39  +10      72.40     7.37    15.13     1.65    11.07    48.08    18.36P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            24   36   -2      62.35     7.06    -8.89     0.03     0.50     7.25     1.46P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   32   +2      62.88     7.10     5.38     0.02     0.45     8.70     2.22P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   31   +4      63.80     7.31     8.39     0.07     1.11    12.16     3.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         26   29   -9      53.10     6.56   -14.42     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P    0.13R    0.01  
Macclesfield         24   28  -18      48.98     6.73   -35.36     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.82R    0.07  
Port_Vale            25   27  -15      47.59     6.69   -28.08     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P    1.34R    0.13  
Morecambe            24   25  -10      49.12     6.92   -19.49     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    0.84R    0.08  
Chester              25   24  -15      45.35     6.67   -27.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     2.78R    0.31  
Rotherham            24   23   +8      58.39     7.39    16.20     0.01     0.10     3.20     1.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   23  -11      48.08     7.09   -18.82     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.46R    0.20  
Barnet               25   20  -22      39.85     6.54   -37.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.53R    2.77  
Grimsby              24   17  -22      35.73     6.57   -40.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.44R    8.89  
Bournemouth          25    7  -11      30.85     6.85   -18.57     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.20R   27.17  
Luton                25    0   -7      25.75     7.03   -11.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.45R   60.39  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 20 January 2009, Oxford_Utd vs Forest_Green; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        28   64  +24      96.04     6.20    35.83    68.94    99.43    75.83P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               25   51  +17      87.92     7.08    29.88    16.95    88.38    34.01P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         27   46  +17      77.39     6.53    25.49     0.79    42.35    11.72P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              26   46  +14      81.42     6.80    26.18     3.44    65.39    19.07P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   46  +12      77.29     6.46    19.95     0.64    39.70    10.24P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        26   46  +10      77.76     6.90    16.54     1.15    41.84     9.87P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            29   44   +5      67.54     6.16     5.08     0.00     4.01     0.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham              24   42  +17      83.62     7.12    35.97     7.22    76.32    27.30P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd           28   42   +4      66.92     6.18     4.41     0.01     3.14     0.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Kettering            23   39   +8      75.76     7.59    15.99     0.86    33.11     9.03P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    27   38   +8      67.97     6.49    13.94     0.01     4.96     1.31P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   27   36  -10      58.55     6.50   -16.14     0.00     0.15     0.03P    1.17R    0.00  
Weymouth             27   35   -2      61.23     6.54    -2.12     0.00     0.52     0.09P    0.34R    0.00  
Altrincham           26   35  -11      57.98     6.55   -17.84     0.00     0.20     0.03P    1.29R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     28   33   -5      56.51     6.32    -6.74     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.82R    0.00  
York                 28   32   -1      59.64     6.51     3.61     0.00     0.18     0.04P    0.66R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   30   -1      59.38     6.78     1.97     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.92R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       26   28  -11      47.74     6.33   -22.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.27R    0.16  
Salisbury            26   28  -12      48.45     6.51   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.58R    0.18  
Barrow               25   27  -10      49.71     6.66   -21.39     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.20R    0.21  
Woking               27   26   -9      48.66     6.53   -13.04     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.62R    0.17  
Forest_Green         26   26  -13      47.97     6.48   -22.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.52R    0.34  
Lewes                27   17  -35      27.55     4.87   -60.89     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.69R   85.64  
Northwich            25   15  -16      36.38     6.67   -28.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.88R   13.30  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4