Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 18 January 2009 at 22:05:46 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 January 2009, Tottenham vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         21   47  +24      84.12     5.42    44.18    51.20    79.47    95.28    99.03   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       21   46  +22      80.61     5.70    39.42    24.16    54.26    86.26    96.37    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   45  +29      80.46     5.12    50.87    22.84    57.79    88.43    97.23    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   44  +13      71.22     5.79    21.70     1.37     5.88    19.32    61.77    98.14     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   41  +13      68.68     5.73    22.39     0.42     2.53    10.23    40.77    96.24     0.00     0.00  
Everton         21   35   +4      58.87     6.13     4.76     0.00     0.07     0.43     3.76    54.43     0.01R    0.00  
Wigan           22   31   +2      53.14     5.85     2.72     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.46    17.55     0.12R    0.00  
West_Ham        22   29   -2      49.11     5.85    -5.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     6.08     1.12R    0.08  
Hull            22   27  -13      45.40     5.69   -19.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     1.15     6.35R    1.00  
Fulham          20   26   +2      49.84     6.28     1.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.20     8.99     1.13R    0.09  
Man_City        21   25   +9      52.00     6.00    14.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.32    15.07     0.45R    0.03  
Portsmouth      21   24  -12      41.26     5.92   -21.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.36    20.97R    5.03  
Bolton          22   23   -8      43.78     5.99    -9.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.18     9.61R    1.85  
Newcastle       22   23   -9      40.48     5.64   -17.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.21    21.88R    5.28  
Sunderland      22   23   -9      39.87     5.60   -17.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19    24.66R    5.63  
Tottenham       22   21   -6      39.31     5.75   -11.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    27.39R    7.63  
Blackburn       21   21  -11      38.57     5.76   -21.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    34.35R   10.75  
Middlesbrough   22   21  -15      34.63     5.24   -27.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    63.05R   29.07  
Stoke           22   21  -16      38.65     5.90   -22.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    34.57R   11.45  
West_Brom       22   21  -17      35.91     5.52   -28.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    54.34R   22.10  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Birmingham vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    28   59  +22      93.11     6.05    38.44    51.81    83.96    99.86    87.88P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   54  +31      91.01     5.93    51.00    38.41    77.23    99.66    85.46P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       27   52  +11      84.34     6.56    20.21     8.03    26.26    93.70    42.78P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   47  +15      77.31     6.11    23.14     0.61     4.25    72.67    24.01P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          28   47   +7      74.37     6.25    10.84     0.17     1.69    51.53    11.47P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +11      77.78     6.58    20.87     0.87     5.46    72.93    23.55P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   43   +2      69.73     6.42     5.09     0.02     0.30    23.97     4.43P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              28   42   +1      65.63     6.19     0.03     0.00     0.05     8.85     1.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Swansea          28   41   +7      71.01     6.30    14.99     0.02     0.34    33.45     8.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +7      68.61     6.71    10.84     0.04     0.35    21.97     5.01P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          28   39  +10      67.17     6.22    15.19     0.01     0.10    15.31     4.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        28   38   -9      57.96     6.11   -16.16     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.09P    1.48R    0.02  
Coventry         28   37   -1      60.10     6.22    -3.15     0.00     0.00     1.80     0.31P    0.56R    0.01  
Bristol_City     27   35   -2      61.03     6.48    -2.01     0.00     0.01     2.65     0.53P    0.49R    0.01  
Plymouth         27   33   -4      56.43     6.39    -7.61     0.00     0.00     0.53     0.13P    2.81R    0.10  
Barnsley         28   32   -9      51.69     5.99   -16.37     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   10.95R    0.68  
Blackpool        27   31   -8      54.30     6.40   -11.82     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    6.38R    0.41  
Nottm_Forest     28   30   -8      49.79     6.02   -15.93     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   17.94R    1.30  
Norwich          28   29   -7      50.99     6.19   -11.95     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   13.70R    1.16  
Derby            27   29  -11      50.21     6.29   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   18.46R    1.90  
Watford          28   27  -12      49.64     6.24   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   20.55R    2.18  
Doncaster        27   27  -13      45.22     5.90   -23.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.06R    6.89  
Southampton      28   26  -18      42.59     5.70   -30.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.85R   16.04  
Charlton         28   19  -22      35.60     5.78   -37.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.75R   69.29  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Brighton vs Leeds; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        24   54  +27      98.74     6.90    50.22    72.42    91.09    99.82    94.11P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   50  +24      90.49     6.87    43.26    18.02    59.23    97.70    71.72P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         24   47   +8      81.32     7.50    14.17     2.06    11.18    74.40    24.64P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     24   46  +16      85.16     7.29    31.02     5.76    25.27    88.96    42.53P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           26   45  +11      77.41     6.87    18.84     0.47     3.68    57.98    16.22P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       25   44  +12      78.81     7.12    21.65     0.90     6.06    65.26    20.16P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        25   41  +12      75.19     7.00    20.26     0.25     2.11    46.22    14.40P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     26   40   -1      66.57     6.73    -2.77     0.00     0.08     7.66     1.35P    0.05R    0.00  
Leeds            25   39   +8      72.19     7.14    14.83     0.09     0.84    29.64     7.60P    0.02R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   37   +3      69.05     7.47     5.68     0.04     0.39    16.51     3.95P    0.05R    0.00  
Colchester       25   35   +1      64.39     7.11     1.40     0.00     0.03     5.70     1.13P    0.27R    0.00  
Hartlepool       25   32   -3      59.40     7.12    -6.11     0.00     0.01     1.30     0.25P    1.98R    0.04  
Walsall          24   31   -2      61.83     7.38    -1.24     0.00     0.01     3.04     0.65P    1.12R    0.01  
Carlisle         25   31   -4      59.73     7.20    -4.62     0.00     0.00     1.44     0.28P    1.92R    0.04  
Northampton      25   30   -1      57.77     7.09    -2.66     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.17P    3.15R    0.08  
Southend         24   30  -10      56.41     7.32   -16.65     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.09P    5.80R    0.21  
Bristol_Rovers   24   29   +3      61.28     7.49     5.78     0.00     0.02     3.03     0.73P    1.28R    0.02  
Swindon          25   24   -9      49.27     6.96   -16.26     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   25.41R    2.17  
Yeovil           24   24  -12      47.29     7.04   -22.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   37.09R    4.03  
Brighton         24   23   -9      48.58     7.14   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   28.89R    2.79  
Leyton_Orient    25   22  -15      42.94     6.61   -25.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.18R   11.64  
Hereford         24   20  -14      41.83     6.93   -26.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.45R   16.46  
Cheltenham       24   20  -25      38.07     6.40   -48.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.46R   38.00  
Crewe            24   19  -20      40.13     6.79   -37.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    76.86R   24.51  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Aldershot vs Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              25   49  +18      87.82     6.66    32.55    45.69    81.32    98.48    86.51P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            24   43  +14      81.99     7.08    27.26    15.47    51.22    90.67    62.23P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           24   41  +18      79.05     7.27    30.82     8.86    36.19    82.70    48.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             25   41  +13      75.41     7.04    22.06     2.99    18.14    67.90    29.25P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   40   +9      73.08     6.83    17.93     1.17    10.13    55.07    20.70P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            24   39  +22      82.04     7.08    43.35    17.83    55.17    91.55    66.80P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   39  +18      77.98     6.80    33.78     5.87    30.35    81.46    47.20P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   39  +10      72.33     7.35    14.93     1.48    10.16    49.57    17.79P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               24   37   +4      67.65     7.23     5.07     0.28     2.89    24.25     6.91P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           24   37   +0      66.69     7.34    -0.62     0.20     2.12    20.87     5.01P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            23   35   -2      63.15     7.41    -8.11     0.06     0.78    10.42     2.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   32   +2      62.89     7.09     5.36     0.03     0.47     9.27     2.35P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   31   +4      63.87     7.28     8.44     0.05     0.96    13.14     3.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Notts_County         25   28   -9      52.70     6.88   -15.66     0.00     0.01     0.41     0.07P    0.22R    0.02  
Macclesfield         24   28  -18      49.32     6.75   -34.96     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    0.78R    0.09  
Port_Vale            24   27  -13      49.61     6.99   -24.81     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    0.79R    0.10  
Morecambe            24   25  -10      48.95     6.94   -19.75     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    1.00R    0.12  
Chester              25   24  -15      45.38     6.65   -27.39     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P    2.71R    0.27  
Rotherham            24   23   +8      58.61     7.34    16.49     0.00     0.08     3.79     1.20P    0.02R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   23  -11      48.28     7.03   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.33R    0.14  
Barnet               25   20  -22      40.10     6.63   -37.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.73R    2.93  
Grimsby              24   17  -22      35.85     6.56   -40.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    32.70R    8.80  
Bournemouth          25    7  -11      30.95     6.87   -18.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.40R   26.87  
Luton                25    0   -7      25.76     7.06   -12.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.32R   60.67  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Cambridge_Utd vs Woking; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        28   64  +24      95.87     6.20    35.59    68.72    99.26    75.63P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               25   51  +17      87.69     7.09    29.56    16.68    87.76    32.97P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         27   46  +17      77.63     6.56    25.86     0.91    43.50    12.43P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              26   46  +14      81.38     6.83    26.12     3.49    65.20    19.18P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   46  +12      77.46     6.42    20.19     0.78    39.96    10.71P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        26   46  +10      77.86     7.00    16.64     1.31    41.99    10.01P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            29   44   +5      67.65     6.09     5.27     0.00     3.80     0.61P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham              24   42  +17      83.47     7.14    35.71     7.14    75.41    27.01P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            23   39   +8      75.95     7.56    16.29     0.96    33.51     9.21P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   39   +3      66.03     6.54     4.62     0.01     2.83     0.50P    0.03R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    27   38   +8      68.04     6.55    14.08     0.01     5.33     1.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   27   36  -10      58.70     6.53   -15.94     0.00     0.18     0.03P    1.07R    0.00  
Weymouth             27   35   -2      61.49     6.58    -1.66     0.00     0.59     0.09P    0.33R    0.00  
Altrincham           26   35  -11      57.71     6.52   -18.25     0.00     0.15     0.02P    1.46R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     28   33   -5      56.50     6.29    -6.76     0.00     0.03     0.01P    1.82R    0.00  
York                 28   32   -1      59.41     6.54     3.25     0.00     0.17     0.03P    0.74R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   30   -1      59.46     6.72     2.09     0.00     0.32     0.08P    0.81R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       26   28  -11      47.67     6.32   -22.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.75R    0.18  
Salisbury            26   28  -12      48.46     6.45   -23.16     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.74R    0.24  
Barrow               25   27  -10      49.53     6.61   -21.69     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.01R    0.22  
Woking               27   26   -9      48.48     6.52   -13.22     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.60R    0.20  
Forest_Green         25   26  -12      48.78     6.79   -22.67     0.00     0.01     0.00    21.98R    0.29  
Lewes                27   17  -35      27.59     4.89   -60.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.69R   85.84  
Northwich            25   15  -16      36.40     6.66   -28.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.95R   13.02  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4