Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 18 January 2009 at 20:19:21 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 18 January 2009, Tottenham vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Man_Utd         21   47  +24      83.98     5.42    43.97    50.16    78.78    95.12    99.07   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       21   46  +22      80.63     5.69    39.46    24.90    54.39    86.24    96.34    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         22   45  +29      80.54     5.12    51.05    23.20    58.29    88.82    97.46    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     22   44  +13      71.23     5.78    21.71     1.30     5.97    19.44    62.52    98.24     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         22   41  +13      68.53     5.72    22.14     0.44     2.52     9.89    39.76    96.09     0.00     0.00  
Everton         21   35   +4      58.84     6.13     4.71     0.01     0.05     0.45     3.82    54.33     0.01R    0.00  
Wigan           22   31   +2      53.29     5.83     2.92     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.43    18.31     0.11R    0.00  
West_Ham        22   29   -2      49.08     5.85    -5.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11     6.10     1.29R    0.11  
Hull            22   27  -13      45.44     5.71   -19.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.06     6.38R    0.98  
Fulham          20   26   +2      49.85     6.24     1.82     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.20     8.85     1.06R    0.11  
Man_City        21   25   +9      51.93     6.01    14.90     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.29    14.62     0.51R    0.06  
Portsmouth      21   24  -12      41.30     5.88   -21.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.42    20.20R    4.78  
Bolton          22   23   -8      43.88     5.96    -9.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     1.17     9.33R    1.79  
Newcastle       22   23   -9      40.48     5.68   -17.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.24    21.94R    5.27  
Sunderland      22   23   -9      39.68     5.62   -17.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    25.70R    5.99  
Tottenham       22   21   -6      39.43     5.72   -11.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    26.30R    7.13  
Blackburn       21   21  -11      38.34     5.82   -22.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    36.12R   12.10  
Middlesbrough   22   21  -15      34.64     5.28   -27.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    63.17R   29.06  
Stoke           22   21  -16      38.69     5.91   -22.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.15    34.73R   11.34  
West_Brom       22   21  -17      36.08     5.59   -27.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    53.15R   21.26  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Birmingham vs Cardiff; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    28   59  +22      93.05     6.03    38.32    51.79    83.92    99.84    87.72P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          28   54  +31      90.94     5.89    50.94    38.19    77.36    99.64    85.52P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       27   52  +11      84.44     6.49    20.36     8.13    26.44    94.31    43.06P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        28   47  +15      77.19     6.14    23.02     0.65     4.14    72.00    23.83P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          28   47   +7      74.24     6.26    10.64     0.21     1.60    51.08    10.98P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          27   45  +11      77.71     6.57    20.75     0.92     5.41    72.58    23.17P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          28   43   +2      69.55     6.38     4.79     0.03     0.28    23.49     4.51P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              28   42   +1      65.80     6.19     0.27     0.00     0.04     9.39     1.92P    0.02R    0.00  
Swansea          28   41   +7      71.03     6.31    15.04     0.02     0.38    33.56     8.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   27   40   +7      68.70     6.68    10.96     0.04     0.32    22.32     5.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Ipswich          28   39  +10      67.23     6.17    15.26     0.01     0.09    15.76     4.17P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        28   38   -9      57.98     6.11   -16.10     0.00     0.00     0.70     0.11P    1.57R    0.01  
Coventry         28   37   -1      60.07     6.21    -3.23     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.35P    0.60R    0.00  
Bristol_City     27   35   -2      61.01     6.46    -2.04     0.00     0.01     2.73     0.56P    0.53R    0.01  
Plymouth         27   33   -4      56.31     6.36    -7.76     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.08P    2.80R    0.11  
Barnsley         28   32   -9      51.59     6.00   -16.52     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   11.37R    0.68  
Blackpool        27   31   -8      54.37     6.36   -11.72     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    6.12R    0.35  
Nottm_Forest     28   30   -8      49.91     5.99   -15.72     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.69R    1.27  
Norwich          28   29   -7      51.02     6.18   -11.98     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   13.68R    1.13  
Derby            27   29  -11      50.27     6.28   -18.31     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    18.59R    1.79  
Watford          28   27  -12      49.76     6.27   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   20.11R    2.13  
Doncaster        27   27  -13      45.24     5.87   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.20R    6.93  
Southampton      28   26  -18      42.60     5.77   -30.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.77R   16.19  
Charlton         28   19  -22      35.64     5.73   -37.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.92R   69.38  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Brighton vs Leeds; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        24   54  +27      99.00     6.85    50.71    73.59    91.54    99.90    94.56P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          25   50  +24      90.46     6.85    43.28    17.15    58.69    97.62    71.15P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         24   47   +8      81.28     7.52    14.11     2.01    11.06    73.84    24.20P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     24   46  +16      85.27     7.30    31.26     5.63    25.27    89.30    43.07P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           26   45  +11      77.51     6.78    18.97     0.42     3.64    58.35    16.23P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       25   44  +12      78.75     7.14    21.59     0.88     6.17    64.80    19.94P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        25   41  +12      75.11     7.02    20.14     0.22     2.16    45.44    14.34P    0.00     0.00  
Huddersfield     26   40   -1      66.65     6.79    -2.65     0.01     0.09     7.83     1.39P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds            25   39   +8      72.15     7.20    14.72     0.08     0.92    29.36     7.69P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         24   37   +3      69.14     7.57     5.81     0.03     0.37    17.22     4.11P    0.09R    0.00  
Colchester       25   35   +1      64.41     7.15     1.39     0.00     0.03     5.77     1.14P    0.33R    0.00  
Hartlepool       25   32   -3      59.53     7.16    -5.90     0.00     0.00     1.31     0.25P    1.92R    0.02  
Walsall          24   31   -2      61.99     7.38    -0.98     0.00     0.01     3.28     0.65P    1.02R    0.02  
Carlisle         25   31   -4      59.67     7.23    -4.69     0.00     0.00     1.36     0.23P    1.94R    0.03  
Northampton      25   30   -1      57.68     7.14    -2.86     0.00     0.00     0.81     0.22P    3.31R    0.08  
Southend         24   30  -10      56.30     7.28   -16.82     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.07P    5.93R    0.19  
Bristol_Rovers   24   29   +3      61.33     7.52     5.86     0.00     0.02     3.32     0.77P    1.16R    0.02  
Swindon          25   24   -9      49.29     6.92   -16.28     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   25.04R    2.11  
Yeovil           24   24  -12      46.96     6.96   -22.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    38.73R    4.36  
Brighton         24   23   -9      48.50     7.12   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   29.37R    2.85  
Leyton_Orient    25   22  -15      43.06     6.57   -25.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.11R   10.98  
Hereford         24   20  -14      41.86     6.91   -26.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    67.05R   16.08  
Cheltenham       24   20  -25      38.08     6.46   -49.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.77R   37.97  
Crewe            24   19  -20      39.96     6.87   -37.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.15R   25.30  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Aldershot vs Macclesfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              25   49  +18      87.72     6.75    32.40    44.77    80.58    98.35    85.89P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            24   43  +14      82.17     7.20    27.52    16.48    51.55    90.83    62.57P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           24   41  +18      79.02     7.28    30.85     8.95    36.27    82.32    48.67P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             25   41  +13      75.31     7.09    21.88     2.96    17.75    67.21    28.96P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 26   40   +9      73.01     6.86    17.77     1.07    10.12    54.48    20.34P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            24   39  +22      82.05     7.08    43.30    17.85    55.11    91.49    66.57P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           25   39  +18      78.02     6.77    33.82     5.77    30.68    81.41    47.05P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             24   39  +10      72.52     7.36    15.28     1.51    10.62    50.78    18.51P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               24   37   +4      67.42     7.26     4.63     0.28     2.66    23.71     6.59P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           24   37   +0      66.73     7.38    -0.49     0.22     2.25    21.20     5.28P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            23   35   -2      63.25     7.38    -7.98     0.07     0.84    10.51     2.17P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         25   32   +2      63.01     7.04     5.52     0.02     0.45     9.46     2.40P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         24   31   +4      63.94     7.32     8.58     0.05     0.96    13.37     3.53P    0.00     0.00  
Notts_County         25   28   -9      52.70     6.82   -15.64     0.00     0.01     0.38     0.07P    0.17R    0.01  
Macclesfield         24   28  -18      49.17     6.69   -35.17     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.81R    0.07  
Port_Vale            24   27  -13      49.45     7.00   -25.03     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.79R    0.06  
Morecambe            24   25  -10      48.99     6.98   -19.75     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    1.03R    0.09  
Chester              25   24  -15      45.29     6.61   -27.48     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P    3.06R    0.41  
Rotherham            24   23   +8      58.66     7.38    16.57     0.00     0.14     4.01     1.33P    0.03R    0.00  
Accrington_Stanley   24   23  -11      48.32     7.13   -18.50     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    1.40R    0.16  
Barnet               25   20  -22      40.07     6.54   -37.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    13.46R    2.85  
Grimsby              24   17  -22      35.76     6.53   -40.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.21R    9.00  
Bournemouth          25    7  -11      31.06     6.86   -18.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.64R   26.51  
Luton                25    0   -7      25.83     7.09   -11.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.38R   60.83  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 17 January 2009, Cambridge_Utd vs Woking; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        28   64  +24      95.92     6.24    35.67    68.15    99.28    75.40P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               25   51  +17      87.91     7.05    29.92    16.97    88.47    33.62P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         27   46  +17      77.58     6.54    25.79     1.01    43.13    12.16P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              26   46  +14      81.61     6.85    26.49     3.84    65.91    19.78P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        27   46  +12      77.42     6.51    20.15     0.75    39.82    10.81P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        26   46  +10      77.66     6.89    16.35     1.03    40.90     9.23P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            29   44   +5      67.57     6.09     5.10     0.00     3.85     0.64P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham              24   42  +17      83.59     7.14    35.84     7.19    75.54    26.92P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            23   39   +8      75.99     7.60    16.31     1.04    33.85     9.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           27   39   +3      65.85     6.56     4.36     0.01     2.77     0.55P    0.02R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    27   38   +8      67.84     6.55    13.76     0.01     5.09     1.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   27   36  -10      58.49     6.47   -16.22     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.18R    0.00  
Weymouth             27   35   -2      61.21     6.56    -2.15     0.00     0.50     0.09P    0.35R    0.00  
Altrincham           26   35  -11      57.61     6.47   -18.46     0.00     0.16     0.02P    1.53R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     28   33   -5      56.63     6.26    -6.61     0.00     0.04     0.01P    1.72R    0.00  
York                 28   32   -1      59.58     6.58     3.51     0.00     0.21     0.03P    0.77R    0.00  
Mansfield            26   30   -1      59.67     6.79     2.48     0.00     0.31     0.07P    0.74R    0.00  
Grays_Athletic       26   28  -11      47.57     6.31   -22.64     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.50R    0.19  
Salisbury            26   28  -12      48.39     6.47   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.17R    0.16  
Barrow               25   27  -10      49.76     6.68   -21.28     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.35R    0.16  
Woking               27   26   -9      48.69     6.48   -12.98     0.00     0.00     0.00    19.58R    0.18  
Forest_Green         25   26  -12      48.80     6.75   -22.68     0.00     0.00     0.00    22.16R    0.25  
Lewes                27   17  -35      27.62     4.93   -60.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.66R   85.14  
Northwich            25   15  -16      36.27     6.69   -28.73     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.26R   13.91  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4