Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 7 January 2009 at 22:05:13 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2008, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      82.27     5.88    41.81    35.81    70.62    93.25    98.50    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.19     5.29    57.84    46.97    80.21    96.27    99.31    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         18   38  +19      78.38     6.50    38.00    16.08    42.25    81.27    94.25    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   38  +11      69.38     6.30    22.01     0.86     5.00    19.40    62.26    95.52     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.88     6.38    20.13     0.28     1.82     8.70    35.26    88.65     0.00     0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.35     6.45     2.96     0.00     0.07     0.61     5.27    42.61     0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      54.07     6.68     3.30     0.00     0.01     0.27     2.38    25.27     0.27R    0.01  
Hull            20   27   -9      48.21     6.27   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22     5.18     2.98R    0.31  
Fulham          19   26   +4      52.98     6.66     6.31     0.00     0.02     0.19     1.70    21.19     0.44R    0.03  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.57     6.31    -8.92     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15     3.52     4.44R    0.51  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.39     6.53    -9.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.97     7.40R    1.00  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      41.20     6.16   -22.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.54    21.74R    4.58  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.50     6.32    14.15     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.56    11.89     1.28R    0.14  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.64     6.40   -11.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.46    11.83R    2.03  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.11     6.19   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.57    20.14R    3.74  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.76     6.39    -9.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.72    17.47R    3.62  
Middlesbrough   20   20  -12      37.42     5.99   -22.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    42.37R   12.68  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.32     6.06   -27.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07    44.34R   14.10  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.40     6.04   -27.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    55.97R   21.97  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.49     5.85   -33.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    69.28R   35.28  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      96.83     6.45    43.91    62.55    90.80    99.95    93.31P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.46     6.31    52.22    31.56    78.56    99.76    86.64P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      84.84     6.76    20.44     5.00    22.29    94.97    41.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      77.91     6.79    20.57     0.57     4.24    76.13    23.54P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.58     6.95     9.83     0.11     1.23    51.41    10.57P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.59     6.68    21.10     0.13     1.67    60.80    18.33P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.73     6.82     5.46     0.03     0.37    29.74     5.95P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.42     6.96    15.93     0.05     0.69    41.39    10.57P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      64.04     6.59    -2.37     0.00     0.03     8.40     1.59P    0.10R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.57     6.68    11.57     0.00     0.07    14.08     3.64P    0.06R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.25     6.82     7.23     0.00     0.04    13.04     2.75P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.35     6.67    -2.18     0.00     0.01     4.10     0.84P    0.45R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      55.01     6.42   -21.78     0.00     0.00     0.49     0.07P    4.74R    0.37  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.11     6.69    -5.16     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.36P    1.56R    0.07  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.51     6.72    -4.52     0.00     0.00     2.00     0.45P    1.24R    0.06  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      57.08     6.67    -7.48     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.20P    2.30R    0.14  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.58     6.60   -10.80     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.09P    3.78R    0.32  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.26     6.61   -15.41     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    9.96R    1.19  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.45     6.70   -10.93     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.04P    9.71R    1.24  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.85     6.57   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   21.85R    3.78  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.74     6.40   -23.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    45.21R   11.69  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.80     6.01   -25.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.74R   17.54  
Southampton      26   23  -18      41.98     6.24   -31.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.64R   24.34  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.47     6.37   -30.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.56R   39.23  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Huddersfield vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.42     7.20    47.40    52.50    83.62    99.55    88.89P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.26     7.24    49.43    38.97    76.48    99.11    83.82P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.82     7.72    13.30     1.13     5.86    63.94    17.64P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      84.18     7.60    31.37     4.09    15.90    83.78    33.59P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           24   42  +15      81.29     7.26    29.54     1.51     8.13    74.73    26.90P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.09     7.71    24.11     1.37     6.87    67.23    21.13P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.68     7.52    19.31     0.23     1.51    39.49    11.54P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.52     7.75     6.84     0.05     0.46    20.12     4.53P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.11     7.74    16.68     0.14     1.07    32.14     8.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     24   36   -2      65.62     7.32    -3.34     0.00     0.04     6.41     1.11P    0.24R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.43     7.63    -1.97     0.00     0.02     3.48     0.67P    1.02R    0.01  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.51     7.61    -1.58     0.00     0.01     3.54     0.67P    0.91R    0.01  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.84     7.55   -14.50     0.00     0.00     0.88     0.14P    4.07R    0.04  
Northampton      23   29   +1      60.86     7.68     1.29     0.00     0.01     2.33     0.47P    1.62R    0.02  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      57.95     7.63    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.17P    3.82R    0.07  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.74     7.82     4.72     0.00     0.01     1.94     0.44P    2.35R    0.05  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.84     7.59   -13.52     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   13.28R    0.51  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.39     7.28   -21.53     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   30.20R    1.77  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.82     7.48   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   19.08R    0.83  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.40     7.47   -16.57     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P   20.94R    1.16  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      45.91     7.16   -21.26     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    42.85R    3.48  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      38.80     6.65   -48.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.56R   22.43  
Hereford         23   17  -19      35.87     6.65   -37.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.87R   37.06  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.81     6.89   -41.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.16R   32.55  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Bradford vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              24   49  +19      91.80     6.77    37.66    55.99    88.85    99.47    92.28P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      84.98     7.52    30.42    17.47    59.74    93.75    69.91P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             24   40  +13      77.10     7.30    24.42     2.60    19.62    72.65    31.86P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   38  +22      83.73     7.23    45.86    14.51    56.62    93.11    67.96P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   38  +18      79.30     7.05    35.33     4.67    30.39    83.19    48.13P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           23   38  +14      76.60     7.52    25.44     2.63    19.19    69.38    32.07P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             23   38  +10      73.54     7.49    16.41     0.99     9.71    53.22    18.40P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 24   36   +8      73.13     7.27    19.52     0.64     8.22    52.38    18.59P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.16     7.81     7.31     0.35     4.74    34.78    10.16P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.89     7.62    -1.90     0.06     1.11    14.10     3.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      65.03     7.68    -5.65     0.06     1.04    14.15     2.80P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.60     7.48     4.03     0.01     0.40     8.83     2.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.65     7.52     5.46     0.01     0.33     7.54     1.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.56     6.84   -37.55     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    0.89R    0.09  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.64     7.13   -26.90     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.84R    0.08  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      51.04     7.26   -17.78     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.44R    0.06  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.12     7.19   -20.32     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    0.92R    0.12  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.62     7.24   -24.45     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.70R    0.33  
Accrington_Stanley   23   22  -11      47.15     7.17   -21.39     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    1.81R    0.29  
Rotherham            23   20   +7      57.67     7.62    16.71     0.00     0.03     2.75     0.84P    0.05R    0.01  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.48     6.84   -41.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.62R    3.92  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      31.97     6.50   -45.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.40R   23.65  
Bournemouth          24    7  -10      31.48     7.05   -18.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.84R   26.20  
Luton                23   -1   -3      28.13     7.51    -6.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.49R   45.25  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Stevenage vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        27   61  +23      94.56     6.48    35.10    61.28    98.48    69.48P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.74     7.42    29.60    16.83    83.80    32.51P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   46  +18      79.55     6.82    27.81     2.36    54.21    16.02P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      81.18     7.07    21.65     4.04    60.92    16.97P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.00     7.18    26.54     5.55    66.39    21.04P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      74.87     6.78    15.72     0.44    25.54     6.78P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      83.32     7.47    34.75     8.78    72.64    27.22P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            28   41   +2      65.57     6.40     1.51     0.00     2.10     0.30P    0.05R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    26   38   +9      70.11     6.75    16.08     0.06     9.47     2.59P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   36   +2      64.75     6.76     4.08     0.01     2.13     0.43P    0.16R    0.00  
Kettering            22   35   +6      73.48     7.92    14.49     0.64    23.36     6.49P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      58.92     6.79   -17.59     0.00     0.32     0.04P    1.71R    0.01  
Eastbourne_Borough   26   33  -11      56.02     6.70   -18.64     0.00     0.06     0.01P    4.66R    0.01  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      57.96     6.73    -6.81     0.00     0.17     0.04P    2.28R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United     27   30   -6      54.56     6.52    -8.25     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.85R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic       25   30   -9      51.36     6.74   -20.07     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.74R    0.07  
York                 27   29   -4      58.42     6.81     1.29     0.00     0.15     0.03P    1.97R    0.02  
Salisbury            25   28  -11      49.18     6.75   -23.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.88R    0.28  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      57.21     7.03     0.13     0.00     0.18     0.03P    3.21R    0.03  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.42     7.03   -17.68     0.00     0.02     0.00P   16.16R    0.23  
Woking               26   26   -6      50.27     6.69    -9.31     0.00     0.01     0.00P   18.20R    0.15  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      50.96     7.21   -20.21     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.88R    0.33  
Lewes                26   17  -32      28.56     5.19   -58.44     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.61R   84.04  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.12     6.86   -28.55     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.62R   14.80  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4