Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 6 January 2009 at 22:05:14 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2008, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      81.94     5.91    41.27    33.61    69.41    92.70    98.40    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.42     5.18    58.10    49.24    81.56    96.68    99.48    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         18   38  +19      78.31     6.50    37.85    15.99    42.27    81.19    94.21    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   38  +11      69.32     6.33    21.95     0.93     4.94    19.55    61.77    95.21     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.92     6.34    20.21     0.22     1.69     8.62    35.57    88.47     0.00     0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.37     6.49     2.96     0.00     0.08     0.70     5.26    43.09     0.05R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      54.18     6.69     3.46     0.01     0.03     0.31     2.44    25.79     0.28R    0.02  
Hull            20   27   -9      48.33     6.33   -15.70     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.25     5.52     3.08R    0.30  
Fulham          19   26   +4      53.00     6.60     6.38     0.00     0.01     0.19     1.76    20.84     0.34R    0.02  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.51     6.37    -8.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14     3.54     4.73R    0.54  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.42     6.42    -9.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     2.70     7.04R    1.08  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      41.03     6.09   -23.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.47    22.25R    4.59  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.48     6.32    14.17     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.58    11.71     1.26R    0.11  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.61     6.38   -11.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.42    11.65R    1.94  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.05     6.17   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.55    20.45R    3.84  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.75     6.36    -9.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.78    17.42R    3.54  
Middlesbrough   20   20  -12      37.48     5.98   -22.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    41.91R   12.14  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.54     6.11   -26.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    43.23R   13.47  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.47     6.03   -27.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    55.71R   21.73  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.33     5.81   -34.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    70.61R   36.67  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      96.76     6.46    43.79    62.53    90.55    99.96    93.12P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.42     6.25    52.17    31.48    78.74    99.78    86.76P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      84.89     6.75    20.52     5.08    22.28    95.06    40.58P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      78.04     6.76    20.74     0.54     4.50    76.78    24.33P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.56     6.91     9.76     0.11     1.13    50.82    10.40P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.54     6.70    21.09     0.16     1.63    60.31    18.07P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.63     6.79     5.28     0.03     0.35    28.69     5.67P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.48     6.90    15.95     0.06     0.67    41.35    10.56P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      64.09     6.62    -2.28     0.00     0.03     8.49     1.57P    0.08R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.82     6.64    12.01     0.00     0.06    14.71     3.79P    0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.41     6.84     7.53     0.00     0.05    13.58     3.10P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.26     6.79    -2.31     0.00     0.01     4.14     0.87P    0.54R    0.03  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      54.79     6.43   -22.11     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.06P    4.97R    0.37  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.38     6.76    -4.72     0.00     0.00     1.98     0.42P    1.38R    0.08  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.43     6.74    -4.67     0.00     0.00     1.86     0.33P    1.29R    0.08  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      57.03     6.68    -7.55     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.23P    2.25R    0.14  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.61     6.59   -10.84     0.00     0.00     0.54     0.10P    3.84R    0.33  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.16     6.66   -15.52     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   10.62R    1.38  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.34     6.71   -11.24     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.03P   10.01R    1.33  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.76     6.48   -18.55     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   21.77R    3.92  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.76     6.34   -23.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.76R   11.20  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.59     6.04   -25.34     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.97R   18.83  
Southampton      26   23  -18      42.19     6.23   -30.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.93R   23.25  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.50     6.43   -29.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.43R   39.07  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Huddersfield vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.42     7.12    47.40    52.93    84.18    99.50    89.35P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.15     7.22    49.35    38.61    76.29    99.09    83.47P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.62     7.71    13.07     1.06     5.61    62.28    16.94P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      83.90     7.54    30.79     3.95    15.11    83.06    32.18P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           24   42  +15      81.11     7.30    29.27     1.54     7.88    73.55    26.41P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.44     7.63    24.72     1.48     7.54    68.92    22.28P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.68     7.60    19.38     0.23     1.61    39.17    11.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.89     7.83     7.38     0.06     0.55    21.40     5.08P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.29     7.74    16.98     0.14     1.10    32.94     8.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     24   36   -2      65.65     7.38    -3.29     0.00     0.06     6.50     1.21P    0.25R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.42     7.59    -2.02     0.00     0.02     3.54     0.67P    0.89R    0.01  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.56     7.65    -1.56     0.00     0.03     3.62     0.74P    0.87R    0.02  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.52     7.48   -14.99     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.12P    4.32R    0.07  
Northampton      23   29   +1      60.86     7.65     1.35     0.00     0.00     2.31     0.51P    1.49R    0.02  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      57.92     7.79    -9.43     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.20P    4.22R    0.09  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.82     7.85     4.94     0.00     0.01     1.94     0.43P    2.38R    0.04  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.80     7.59   -13.57     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   13.34R    0.47  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.39     7.26   -21.61     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   29.94R    1.78  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.88     7.49   -13.13     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P   18.93R    0.89  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.36     7.40   -16.64     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   21.02R    1.09  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      45.72     7.17   -21.55     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.88R    3.70  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      38.78     6.62   -48.22     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.71R   22.77  
Hereford         23   17  -19      36.13     6.70   -37.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.77R   35.74  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.81     6.95   -41.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.94R   33.31  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Bradford vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              24   49  +19      91.73     6.73    37.59    56.68    88.97    99.46    92.26P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      84.57     7.54    29.90    16.31    57.48    93.22    67.94P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             24   40  +13      77.20     7.30    24.58     2.63    20.24    73.17    32.78P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   38  +22      83.81     7.26    45.98    15.16    57.61    93.05    68.79P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   38  +18      79.02     7.03    34.87     4.10    29.36    82.13    46.72P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           23   38  +14      76.53     7.59    25.34     2.61    19.41    69.62    32.17P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             23   38  +10      73.55     7.60    16.44     1.21    10.42    53.14    18.95P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 24   36   +8      73.09     7.32    19.42     0.70     8.51    51.80    18.65P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.34     7.84     7.57     0.46     5.25    35.75    10.88P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.90     7.57    -1.86     0.04     0.95    13.97     2.94P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      65.02     7.70    -5.68     0.08     1.05    14.46     2.89P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.67     7.57     4.11     0.01     0.42     9.20     2.29P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.47     7.58     5.12     0.01     0.29     7.42     1.66P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.57     6.88   -37.56     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.02P    0.93R    0.12  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.77     7.13   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    0.91R    0.12  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      51.12     7.26   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.33     0.06P    0.44R    0.06  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.26     7.20   -20.13     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.92R    0.14  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.47     7.28   -24.66     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    1.82R    0.30  
Accrington_Stanley   23   22  -11      47.21     7.20   -21.19     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P    1.86R    0.33  
Rotherham            23   20   +7      57.72     7.58    16.78     0.00     0.04     2.84     0.93P    0.07R    0.01  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.44     6.85   -41.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.25R    4.13  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      32.01     6.50   -45.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.66R   24.18  
Bournemouth          24    7  -10      31.62     7.07   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.58R   26.05  
Luton                23   -1   -3      28.30     7.53    -6.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.54R   44.55  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Stevenage vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        27   61  +23      94.62     6.51    35.11    61.50    98.47    69.78P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.60     7.45    29.39    16.29    83.35    32.36P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   46  +18      79.49     6.86    27.70     2.46    53.93    16.12P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      81.31     7.14    21.82     4.34    61.76    17.75P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.20     7.13    26.80     5.99    67.61    21.68P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      74.88     6.72    15.73     0.40    25.56     6.73P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      83.16     7.49    34.52     8.40    72.34    26.10P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            28   41   +2      65.82     6.43     1.90     0.00     2.44     0.44P    0.04R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    26   38   +9      70.07     6.81    15.97     0.05     9.84     2.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   36   +2      64.85     6.77     4.31     0.01     2.22     0.46P    0.13R    0.00  
Kettering            22   35   +6      72.97     7.88    13.77     0.55    21.54     5.70P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      58.90     6.82   -17.68     0.00     0.29     0.04P    1.84R    0.01  
Eastbourne_Borough   26   33  -11      56.26     6.74   -18.25     0.00     0.09     0.01P    4.47R    0.01  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      58.15     6.78    -6.54     0.00     0.17     0.03P    2.23R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United     27   30   -6      54.48     6.54    -8.34     0.00     0.02     0.01P    6.17R    0.03  
Grays_Athletic       25   30   -9      51.28     6.69   -20.06     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.97R    0.07  
York                 27   29   -4      58.13     6.78     0.87     0.00     0.11     0.02P    2.23R    0.01  
Salisbury            25   28  -11      49.12     6.74   -23.32     0.00     0.01     0.00    26.15R    0.27  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      57.15     7.09     0.02     0.00     0.18     0.05P    3.17R    0.03  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.55     7.05   -17.48     0.00     0.03     0.02P   15.79R    0.23  
Woking               26   26   -6      50.30     6.70    -9.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.07R    0.16  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      50.93     7.16   -20.27     0.00     0.01     0.00P   19.00R    0.33  
Lewes                26   17  -32      28.65     5.25   -58.33     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.52R   83.91  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.24     6.83   -28.32     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.21R   14.93  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4