Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 5 January 2009 at 22:05:12 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2008, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      82.08     5.87    41.53    34.48    69.40    92.80    98.42    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.20     5.22    57.82    47.47    80.44    96.29    99.37    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         18   38  +19      78.48     6.54    38.13    16.87    43.16    81.51    94.54    99.73     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   38  +11      69.46     6.30    22.15     0.94     5.19    19.68    62.81    95.50     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.83     6.34    20.04     0.23     1.71     8.52    34.74    88.73     0.00     0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.34     6.50     2.91     0.01     0.07     0.74     5.26    42.84     0.06R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      53.87     6.70     2.98     0.00     0.02     0.27     2.27    24.53     0.32R    0.02  
Hull            20   27   -9      48.36     6.28   -15.58     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.22     5.47     2.94R    0.31  
Fulham          19   26   +4      52.82     6.59     6.14     0.00     0.01     0.15     1.49    20.46     0.44R    0.03  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.60     6.43    -8.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13     3.88     4.80R    0.58  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.55     6.44    -9.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     3.06     6.64R    0.98  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      41.11     6.12   -22.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.50    21.99R    4.54  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.56     6.35    14.26     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.55    12.24     1.17R    0.13  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.62     6.41   -11.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.40    11.75R    2.02  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.13     6.17   -16.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.58    20.26R    3.83  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.79     6.41    -9.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.87    17.29R    3.34  
Middlesbrough   20   20  -12      37.53     6.04   -22.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    41.63R   12.39  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.41     6.12   -27.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    43.94R   13.88  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.29     6.02   -27.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    56.89R   22.47  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.42     5.80   -33.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    69.88R   35.47  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      96.88     6.46    43.96    62.79    90.79    99.94    93.12P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.40     6.33    52.14    31.14    78.16    99.74    86.22P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      85.01     6.73    20.63     5.18    22.83    95.40    41.43P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      77.89     6.80    20.53     0.54     4.23    76.28    23.63P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.43     6.97     9.56     0.10     1.19    50.52    10.28P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.58     6.66    21.16     0.15     1.62    60.45    18.09P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.76     6.75     5.46     0.02     0.33    29.47     5.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.49     6.94    15.98     0.06     0.72    41.73    10.89P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      64.17     6.59    -2.18     0.00     0.02     8.82     1.69P    0.10R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.57     6.65    11.59     0.00     0.06    14.07     3.70P    0.06R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.38     6.88     7.44     0.00     0.05    13.67     3.16P    0.11R    0.01  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.18     6.70    -2.41     0.00     0.01     3.85     0.73P    0.55R    0.03  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      54.75     6.45   -22.14     0.00     0.00     0.48     0.05P    4.98R    0.35  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.30     6.74    -4.87     0.00     0.00     1.87     0.32P    1.43R    0.08  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.32     6.66    -4.86     0.00     0.00     1.71     0.38P    1.29R    0.06  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      56.89     6.66    -7.76     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.17P    2.30R    0.16  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.65     6.63   -10.73     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.14P    4.05R    0.34  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.28     6.64   -15.34     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   10.36R    1.33  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.39     6.65   -11.11     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.01P    9.75R    1.25  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.86     6.58   -18.38     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   22.23R    3.90  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.90     6.40   -22.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   44.24R   11.33  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.60     6.01   -25.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.88R   18.88  
Southampton      26   23  -18      42.03     6.23   -30.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.34R   24.44  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.75     6.40   -29.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.34R   37.82  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Huddersfield vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.57     7.12    47.77    53.52    84.20    99.55    89.20P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.14     7.27    49.26    37.83    75.77    98.97    83.05P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.95     7.70    13.50     1.19     5.97    64.18    17.98P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      84.05     7.61    31.14     4.02    15.76    82.91    32.85P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           24   42  +15      81.23     7.23    29.44     1.52     7.96    74.25    26.68P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.47     7.68    24.72     1.50     7.21    69.05    22.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.69     7.58    19.44     0.23     1.45    39.54    11.76P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.48     7.80     6.73     0.06     0.49    19.63     4.47P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.12     7.77    16.68     0.14     1.06    31.99     8.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Huddersfield     24   36   -2      65.68     7.43    -3.31     0.00     0.06     6.46     1.14P    0.24R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.25     7.64    -2.33     0.00     0.02     3.36     0.62P    1.03R    0.01  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.66     7.64    -1.32     0.00     0.02     3.71     0.75P    0.86R    0.01  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.60     7.54   -14.93     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.14P    4.23R    0.07  
Northampton      23   29   +1      60.72     7.71     1.08     0.00     0.01     2.45     0.57P    1.69R    0.02  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      57.98     7.61    -9.31     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.20P    3.75R    0.06  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.76     7.71     4.83     0.00     0.01     1.79     0.39P    2.31R    0.03  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.88     7.62   -13.45     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P   13.23R    0.55  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.51     7.31   -21.41     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   29.64R    1.77  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.67     7.54   -13.55     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   19.62R    0.89  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.25     7.43   -16.83     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   21.56R    1.14  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      45.75     7.07   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.61R    3.49  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      39.02     6.67   -47.82     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.48R   21.93  
Hereford         23   17  -19      36.10     6.66   -37.19     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.30R   36.14  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.69     6.88   -41.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.39R   33.90  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Bradford vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              24   49  +19      91.73     6.76    37.56    55.80    88.69    99.44    92.06P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      85.12     7.55    30.72    18.14    60.47    94.04    70.51P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             24   40  +13      76.98     7.34    24.17     2.52    19.25    72.07    31.39P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   38  +22      83.90     7.21    46.19    14.63    57.67    93.47    69.00P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   38  +18      79.34     6.91    35.45     4.22    29.93    84.24    48.39P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           23   38  +14      76.44     7.54    25.17     2.54    18.35    69.15    31.33P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             23   38  +10      73.38     7.56    16.13     0.94     9.71    52.58    18.10P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 24   36   +8      73.00     7.30    19.32     0.61     8.18    52.17    18.28P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.07     7.89     7.13     0.48     4.89    34.87    10.11P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.65     7.57    -2.26     0.03     0.95    13.52     2.87P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      64.95     7.67    -5.78     0.07     1.11    14.05     2.86P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.70     7.52     4.16     0.02     0.43     9.15     2.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.53     7.56     5.20     0.00     0.32     7.62     1.68P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.56     6.82   -37.62     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P    0.97R    0.10  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.67     7.20   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    1.01R    0.15  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      51.02     7.30   -17.87     0.00     0.00     0.30     0.05P    0.51R    0.07  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.33     7.17   -20.03     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    0.86R    0.12  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.89     7.32   -23.98     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.02P    1.59R    0.26  
Accrington_Stanley   23   22  -11      47.02     7.23   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P    2.00R    0.32  
Rotherham            23   20   +7      57.72     7.60    16.81     0.00     0.05     2.87     0.95P    0.05R    0.01  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.65     6.91   -41.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.61R    3.97  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      32.14     6.48   -45.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.72R   23.53  
Bournemouth          24    7  -10      31.50     6.98   -18.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.29R   26.24  
Luton                23   -1   -3      28.10     7.53    -6.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.38R   45.24  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Stevenage vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        27   61  +23      94.50     6.57    35.03    60.90    98.33    69.11P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.61     7.46    29.40    16.25    83.05    32.27P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   46  +18      79.56     6.91    27.83     2.67    53.57    16.19P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      81.17     7.13    21.58     4.16    60.62    17.03P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.32     7.17    26.97     6.08    68.23    21.89P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      75.06     6.75    15.96     0.41    26.15     7.11P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      83.32     7.48    34.83     8.89    72.44    26.54P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            28   41   +2      65.65     6.40     1.62     0.00     2.37     0.41P    0.05R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    26   38   +9      70.05     6.84    15.94     0.04     9.69     2.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   36   +2      64.81     6.77     4.23     0.00     2.15     0.46P    0.15R    0.00  
Kettering            22   35   +6      73.30     7.89    14.29     0.59    22.49     6.20P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      58.85     6.82   -17.74     0.00     0.29     0.05P    1.73R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   26   33  -11      56.34     6.82   -18.09     0.00     0.06     0.01P    4.50R    0.01  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      58.12     6.75    -6.60     0.00     0.17     0.03P    2.11R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United     27   30   -6      54.42     6.55    -8.48     0.00     0.03     0.01P    5.89R    0.04  
Grays_Athletic       25   30   -9      51.23     6.71   -20.19     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.97R    0.06  
York                 27   29   -4      58.28     6.80     1.10     0.00     0.12     0.03P    2.03R    0.01  
Salisbury            25   28  -11      48.95     6.68   -23.59     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.78R    0.32  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      56.96     7.04    -0.29     0.00     0.17     0.03P    3.32R    0.03  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.51     7.03   -17.52     0.00     0.03     0.00P   15.80R    0.21  
Woking               26   26   -6      50.21     6.80    -9.41     0.00     0.02     0.00P   18.73R    0.22  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      50.91     7.13   -20.33     0.00     0.01     0.00    18.66R    0.31  
Lewes                26   17  -32      28.63     5.20   -58.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.53R   84.44  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.38     6.89   -28.14     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.75R   14.34  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4