Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 4 January 2009 at 22:05:22 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2008, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      82.16     5.85    41.60    34.85    70.47    93.16    98.48    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.20     5.26    57.86    47.71    80.25    96.28    99.37    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         18   38  +19      78.46     6.44    38.04    16.23    42.41    82.21    94.80    99.71     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   38  +11      69.38     6.31    22.04     0.99     5.10    19.11    62.20    95.51     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.78     6.34    19.98     0.22     1.67     8.16    34.74    88.38     0.00     0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.45     6.44     3.10     0.00     0.06     0.61     5.26    43.34     0.03R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      54.09     6.72     3.35     0.00     0.04     0.32     2.46    25.07     0.30R    0.01  
Hull            20   27   -9      48.17     6.32   -15.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     5.17     3.13R    0.35  
Fulham          19   26   +4      53.00     6.51     6.37     0.00     0.00     0.13     1.55    20.80     0.34R    0.02  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.73     6.35    -8.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     3.86     4.35R    0.53  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.38     6.47    -9.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.74     7.26R    1.00  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      41.01     6.10   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.52    22.54R    4.49  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.45     6.32    14.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.60    11.88     1.30R    0.17  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.60     6.42   -11.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.48    11.61R    2.10  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.20     6.18   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.54    19.87R    3.75  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.73     6.39    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.74    17.37R    3.67  
Middlesbrough   20   20  -12      37.37     5.98   -23.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08    42.53R   12.72  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.58     6.15   -26.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.16    42.89R   13.33  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.29     5.98   -27.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    56.63R   22.20  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.47     5.90   -33.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    69.85R   35.66  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      96.90     6.46    44.03    62.98    91.05    99.96    93.46P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.48     6.31    52.28    31.64    79.25    99.76    86.92P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      84.72     6.69    20.32     4.57    21.65    94.95    39.97P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      77.91     6.78    20.57     0.49     4.09    76.21    23.45P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.50     6.93     9.70     0.12     1.15    50.63    10.43P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.55     6.67    21.08     0.10     1.59    60.37    18.40P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.64     6.81     5.27     0.03     0.34    29.23     5.64P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.64     6.88    16.20     0.07     0.76    42.48    11.20P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      64.13     6.64    -2.28     0.00     0.03     8.47     1.64P    0.09R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.66     6.65    11.74     0.00     0.05    14.12     3.69P    0.04R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.38     6.86     7.52     0.00     0.04    13.39     3.18P    0.11R    0.01  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.42     6.70    -2.09     0.00     0.01     4.20     0.78P    0.47R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      54.77     6.46   -22.17     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.07P    5.08R    0.36  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.32     6.74    -4.83     0.00     0.00     1.91     0.41P    1.49R    0.07  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.45     6.71    -4.63     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.39P    1.31R    0.07  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      56.89     6.66    -7.77     0.00     0.00     1.04     0.20P    2.29R    0.14  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.51     6.60   -10.97     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.10P    3.97R    0.32  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.25     6.61   -15.45     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   10.07R    1.28  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.55     6.71   -10.79     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.05P    9.56R    1.30  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.70     6.59   -18.70     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   22.42R    4.06  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.76     6.35   -23.08     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    44.81R   11.40  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.65     6.03   -25.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.52R   18.60  
Southampton      26   23  -18      42.11     6.24   -30.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.60R   23.96  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.57     6.38   -29.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.15R   38.41  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Huddersfield vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.64     7.13    47.85    53.47    84.45    99.59    89.58P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.23     7.24    49.36    38.24    76.23    99.08    83.47P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.77     7.77    13.25     1.24     5.94    63.49    17.37P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      84.12     7.51    31.21     3.75    15.61    83.73    33.25P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           24   42  +15      81.17     7.27    29.36     1.51     7.78    74.10    26.63P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.36     7.62    24.58     1.41     7.05    68.77    21.84P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.37     7.54    18.94     0.18     1.34    37.94    11.03P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.86     7.67     7.30     0.05     0.46    21.10     4.76P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.11     7.70    16.64     0.15     1.05    32.21     8.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     24   36   -2      65.60     7.35    -3.42     0.00     0.04     6.32     1.07P    0.23R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.42     7.67    -1.98     0.00     0.02     3.49     0.68P    1.10R    0.02  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.64     7.64    -1.43     0.00     0.01     3.74     0.73P    0.93R    0.01  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.30     7.48   -15.40     0.00     0.00     0.69     0.11P    4.59R    0.05  
Northampton      23   29   +1      61.00     7.72     1.47     0.00     0.01     2.57     0.61P    1.44R    0.01  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      58.10     7.68    -9.06     0.00     0.00     1.10     0.19P    3.74R    0.05  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.57     7.76     4.53     0.00     0.00     1.74     0.42P    2.43R    0.04  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.66     7.53   -13.83     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.03P   13.66R    0.52  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.41     7.28   -21.50     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00P   30.16R    1.71  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.91     7.44   -13.16     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   18.66R    0.83  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.43     7.40   -16.55     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   20.80R    1.10  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      45.74     7.14   -21.46     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   43.75R    3.66  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      39.00     6.66   -47.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.74R   22.01  
Hereford         23   17  -19      36.00     6.62   -37.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.66R   36.64  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.73     6.94   -41.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.04R   33.35  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Bradford vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              24   49  +19      91.75     6.78    37.60    56.12    88.84    99.48    92.09P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      84.80     7.54    30.22    17.23    58.55    93.43    68.89P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             24   40  +13      77.19     7.24    24.54     2.64    19.95    72.99    32.10P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   38  +22      83.78     7.22    45.93    14.57    56.90    93.09    68.29P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   38  +18      79.09     7.02    35.02     4.16    29.07    82.37    46.61P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           23   38  +14      76.76     7.58    25.72     2.85    19.90    70.25    33.01P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             23   38  +10      73.57     7.61    16.47     1.15    10.29    53.14    18.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 24   36   +8      73.11     7.25    19.43     0.63     8.30    51.91    18.42P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.41     7.97     7.64     0.52     5.45    36.05    11.14P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.80     7.65    -2.04     0.05     0.96    13.91     2.99P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      64.87     7.72    -5.89     0.06     1.03    13.79     2.79P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.39     7.55     3.71     0.02     0.41     8.43     2.15P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.56     7.59     5.26     0.01     0.29     7.50     1.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.63     6.92   -37.40     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.95R    0.11  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.63     7.07   -26.97     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P    0.96R    0.14  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      51.11     7.32   -17.81     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.05P    0.45R    0.06  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.39     7.11   -19.88     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.82R    0.14  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.51     7.25   -24.57     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P    1.77R    0.32  
Accrington_Stanley   23   22  -11      46.95     7.21   -21.70     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P    2.08R    0.37  
Rotherham            23   20   +7      57.85     7.59    16.98     0.00     0.05     2.92     0.93P    0.05R    0.00  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.53     6.90   -41.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.86R    4.12  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      32.37     6.54   -45.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.77R   21.69  
Bournemouth          24    7  -10      31.43     7.05   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.57R   26.49  
Luton                23   -1   -3      27.90     7.47    -7.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.73R   46.56  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Stevenage vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        27   61  +23      94.70     6.49    35.35    61.79    98.44    69.94P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.63     7.39    29.41    15.90    83.07    31.74P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   46  +18      79.71     6.82    28.08     2.52    53.89    16.58P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      81.06     7.20    21.50     4.09    58.95    16.76P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.10     7.20    26.70     5.63    65.85    21.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      74.94     6.73    15.81     0.42    24.82     6.39P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      83.27     7.45    34.68     8.52    71.93    26.04P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            28   41   +2      65.66     6.43     1.63     0.00     2.15     0.34P    0.04R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    26   38   +9      69.94     6.84    15.76     0.07     8.93     2.33P    0.02R    0.00  
Kettering            22   36   +7      75.09     7.85    16.44     1.05    29.10     8.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   36   +2      64.77     6.79     4.11     0.01     2.06     0.39P    0.11R    0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      58.87     6.77   -17.71     0.00     0.28     0.04P    1.52R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   26   33  -11      56.30     6.73   -18.20     0.00     0.06     0.01P    4.02R    0.00  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      58.07     6.74    -6.66     0.00     0.17     0.03P    1.98R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United     27   30   -6      54.43     6.49    -8.42     0.00     0.02     0.00P    5.24R    0.04  
York                 27   29   -4      58.20     6.75     0.95     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.83R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       25   28  -10      48.68     6.70   -22.21     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.60R    0.30  
Salisbury            25   28  -11      49.06     6.73   -23.42     0.00     0.01     0.00    24.26R    0.32  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      57.09     7.06    -0.09     0.00     0.14     0.03P    3.02R    0.03  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.45     7.00   -17.67     0.00     0.02     0.01P   14.93R    0.21  
Woking               26   26   -6      50.25     6.69    -9.36     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.69R    0.16  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      51.10     7.13   -20.01     0.00     0.01     0.00    17.15R    0.22  
Lewes                26   17  -32      28.61     5.20   -58.41     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.51R   84.10  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.24     6.88   -28.26     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.08R   14.58  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4