Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Saturday 3 January 2009 at 22:08:47 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2008, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      82.27     5.89    41.84    34.87    70.55    93.07    98.48    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.48     5.19    58.23    48.76    81.48    96.68    99.48    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         18   38  +19      78.28     6.49    37.84    15.17    40.85    81.14    94.41    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   38  +11      69.49     6.35    22.16     0.99     5.40    19.93    62.84    95.57     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.71     6.37    19.86     0.21     1.59     7.98    34.33    88.13     0.00     0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.43     6.46     3.07     0.00     0.07     0.64     5.32    43.52     0.03R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      54.04     6.75     3.24     0.00     0.04     0.37     2.40    25.34     0.29R    0.01  
Hull            20   27   -9      48.16     6.27   -16.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.22     5.19     3.15R    0.34  
Fulham          19   26   +4      52.94     6.66     6.25     0.00     0.01     0.13     1.69    20.89     0.47R    0.03  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.65     6.35    -8.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15     3.74     4.48R    0.55  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.33     6.47    -9.84     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.08     2.66     7.35R    1.06  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      41.07     6.16   -22.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.48    22.37R    4.53  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.36     6.36    13.92     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.56    11.69     1.37R    0.12  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.74     6.38   -11.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     1.46    11.20R    1.94  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.19     6.18   -16.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.56    20.00R    3.87  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.88     6.42    -9.15     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.86    16.82R    3.35  
Middlesbrough   20   20  -12      37.44     6.04   -22.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    42.41R   12.39  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.46     6.11   -27.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.12    43.33R   13.34  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.41     6.03   -27.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    55.74R   22.00  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.28     5.79   -34.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    70.99R   36.47  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      96.93     6.44    44.12    63.54    90.82    99.96    93.25P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.38     6.31    52.17    30.58    78.38    99.76    86.45P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      84.83     6.74    20.43     4.97    22.31    94.91    40.81P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      77.99     6.79    20.69     0.57     4.39    76.54    23.71P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.48     6.88     9.65     0.10     1.18    50.49    10.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.59     6.69    21.17     0.13     1.63    60.42    18.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.60     6.78     5.25     0.03     0.33    28.80     5.72P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.69     6.92    16.31     0.07     0.84    42.77    11.23P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      64.11     6.69    -2.31     0.00     0.03     8.69     1.71P    0.08R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.63     6.63    11.66     0.00     0.05    14.06     3.45P    0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.36     6.80     7.42     0.00     0.04    13.23     2.93P    0.10R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.28     6.76    -2.30     0.00     0.01     4.06     0.81P    0.52R    0.03  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      54.82     6.39   -22.05     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.06P    4.68R    0.32  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.45     6.75    -4.63     0.00     0.00     1.94     0.41P    1.32R    0.06  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.50     6.68    -4.56     0.00     0.00     1.90     0.37P    1.21R    0.06  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      56.79     6.69    -7.89     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.20P    2.54R    0.20  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.67     6.64   -10.74     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.10P    3.78R    0.29  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.14     6.63   -15.56     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   10.46R    1.28  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.30     6.65   -11.29     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P    9.82R    1.33  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.88     6.52   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   21.49R    3.71  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.80     6.37   -23.10     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    44.59R   11.35  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.61     5.99   -25.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.93R   18.43  
Southampton      26   23  -18      42.09     6.22   -30.84     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.95R   23.86  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.52     6.36   -29.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.46R   39.09  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Huddersfield vs Oldham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.41     7.18    47.40    52.87    83.59    99.54    88.96P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.19     7.21    49.33    38.71    76.49    99.13    83.57P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.88     7.73    13.44     1.24     6.00    64.07    17.59P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      84.04     7.59    31.08     3.95    15.74    83.34    33.31P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           24   42  +15      81.28     7.25    29.52     1.56     8.31    74.63    27.16P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.26     7.58    24.44     1.26     6.76    68.20    21.16P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.54     7.53    19.20     0.20     1.53    38.59    11.62P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.68     7.72     7.05     0.06     0.43    20.38     4.37P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.13     7.72    16.65     0.15     1.03    32.10     8.29P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     24   36   -2      65.60     7.33    -3.39     0.00     0.04     6.22     1.16P    0.22R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.25     7.62    -2.32     0.00     0.02     3.37     0.63P    1.12R    0.02  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.59     7.64    -1.48     0.00     0.03     3.74     0.77P    0.92R    0.01  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.48     7.58   -15.15     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.12P    4.60R    0.06  
Northampton      23   29   +1      61.03     7.69     1.61     0.00     0.01     2.50     0.61P    1.48R    0.03  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      58.07     7.71    -9.26     0.00     0.00     1.11     0.18P    3.97R    0.07  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.71     7.79     4.74     0.00     0.01     1.89     0.45P    2.36R    0.04  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.97     7.54   -13.30     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   12.65R    0.46  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.44     7.31   -21.49     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   30.18R    1.72  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.82     7.52   -13.31     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   19.10R    0.87  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.51     7.40   -16.29     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   20.35R    1.03  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      45.73     7.11   -21.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   43.94R    3.54  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      38.86     6.59   -47.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.43R   22.06  
Hereford         23   17  -19      35.99     6.66   -37.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.45R   36.54  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.70     6.95   -41.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.17R   33.57  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Bradford vs Shrewsbury; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              24   49  +19      91.73     6.79    37.63    55.94    88.45    99.46    91.78P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      84.78     7.58    30.18    17.13    58.77    93.38    68.68P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             24   40  +13      77.06     7.26    24.31     2.74    19.42    72.25    31.59P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            23   38  +22      83.61     7.28    45.70    14.54    56.15    92.57    67.61P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           24   38  +18      79.33     6.99    35.33     4.44    30.38    83.28    48.16P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           23   38  +14      76.86     7.53    25.90     2.78    20.18    70.53    33.25P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             23   38  +10      73.55     7.57    16.40     1.11     9.96    52.92    18.57P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 24   36   +8      73.12     7.30    19.50     0.66     8.46    52.17    18.33P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.52     7.88     7.88     0.53     5.51    36.39    11.45P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.70     7.58    -2.21     0.03     0.88    13.40     2.86P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      64.90     7.70    -5.90     0.06     1.07    14.04     2.80P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.52     7.63     3.90     0.02     0.45     8.81     2.26P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.58     7.62     5.32     0.02     0.29     7.54     1.70P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.70     6.92   -37.32     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.00P    0.94R    0.12  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.67     7.08   -26.89     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P    1.05R    0.14  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      50.99     7.26   -18.00     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.04P    0.45R    0.06  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.40     7.22   -19.89     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    0.84R    0.11  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.65     7.30   -24.40     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.77R    0.33  
Accrington_Stanley   23   22  -11      47.01     7.21   -21.51     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    1.98R    0.32  
Rotherham            23   20   +7      57.47     7.58    16.35     0.00     0.03     2.53     0.83P    0.07R    0.01  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.43     6.90   -41.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.43R    4.15  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      32.14     6.55   -45.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    53.51R   23.40  
Bournemouth          24    7  -10      31.51     7.12   -18.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.21R   26.50  
Luton                23   -1   -3      28.23     7.52    -6.56     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    69.73R   44.86  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 3 January 2009, Stevenage vs Lewes; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        27   61  +23      94.58     6.50    35.18    61.06    98.35    69.44P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.62     7.44    29.47    16.22    82.67    31.72P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   46  +18      79.89     6.89    28.34     2.91    54.51    17.06P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      81.00     7.20    21.37     4.02    58.46    16.15P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.15     7.15    26.75     5.62    66.22    21.01P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      74.93     6.71    15.80     0.42    24.72     6.42P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      83.36     7.45    34.90     8.68    72.15    26.71P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            28   41   +2      65.73     6.43     1.78     0.00     2.17     0.36P    0.04R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    26   38   +9      70.01     6.80    15.91     0.05     8.98     2.41P    0.01R    0.00  
Kettering            22   36   +7      75.07     7.87    16.35     1.03    28.92     8.22P    0.00R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   36   +2      64.88     6.78     4.27     0.01     2.00     0.37P    0.13R    0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      58.87     6.82   -17.74     0.00     0.29     0.03P    1.57R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   26   33  -11      56.29     6.70   -18.19     0.00     0.06     0.01P    3.94R    0.01  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      57.87     6.83    -6.99     0.00     0.17     0.03P    2.20R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United     27   30   -6      54.23     6.52    -8.71     0.00     0.01     0.00P    5.69R    0.04  
York                 27   29   -4      58.16     6.82     0.94     0.00     0.11     0.02P    1.81R    0.01  
Grays_Athletic       25   28  -10      48.73     6.71   -22.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    25.80R    0.31  
Salisbury            25   28  -11      49.11     6.69   -23.28     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.92R    0.24  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      57.06     7.07    -0.14     0.00     0.13     0.04P    3.03R    0.04  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.53     7.03   -17.51     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.72R    0.21  
Woking               26   26   -6      50.31     6.73    -9.25     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.66R    0.15  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      51.13     7.11   -20.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   16.77R    0.28  
Lewes                26   17  -32      28.56     5.21   -58.51     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.51R   83.81  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.18     6.87   -28.48     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.20R   14.88  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4