Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 2 January 2009 at 22:05:11 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2008, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      82.10     5.91    41.47    35.23    70.22    92.80    98.42    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.16     5.26    57.85    47.73    80.32    96.29    99.31    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         18   38  +19      78.26     6.48    37.77    15.75    42.12    80.95    94.35    99.68     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   38  +11      69.44     6.32    22.04     0.99     5.37    19.90    62.24    95.46     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.90     6.40    20.22     0.29     1.85     8.93    35.61    88.40     0.00     0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.43     6.49     3.07     0.00     0.07     0.66     5.08    43.32     0.05R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      54.06     6.70     3.27     0.00     0.03     0.27     2.26    25.20     0.33R    0.02  
Hull            20   27   -9      48.32     6.27   -15.65     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.23     5.09     3.07R    0.29  
Fulham          19   26   +4      52.98     6.62     6.34     0.00     0.01     0.18     1.63    20.92     0.40R    0.02  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.82     6.42    -8.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.19     4.16     4.26R    0.49  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.26     6.42    -9.97     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.63     7.27R    1.06  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      41.06     6.13   -22.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.47    22.36R    4.56  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.45     6.34    14.03     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.52    11.69     1.31R    0.12  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.66     6.41   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.44    11.47R    2.03  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.13     6.17   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.60    20.20R    3.85  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.63     6.32    -9.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.75    17.69R    3.61  
Middlesbrough   20   20  -12      37.56     5.97   -22.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06    41.28R   12.08  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.36     6.12   -27.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    44.33R   14.15  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.39     5.99   -27.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    56.32R   22.04  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.49     5.89   -33.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    69.68R   35.68  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      96.85     6.41    43.89    62.47    90.75    99.96    93.22P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.58     6.27    52.38    31.69    79.19    99.79    87.11P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      84.92     6.74    20.58     5.01    22.05    95.14    40.64P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      77.74     6.78    20.30     0.51     4.07    75.53    22.94P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.68     6.93    10.00     0.11     1.24    51.83    10.62P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.69     6.63    21.25     0.12     1.53    61.20    18.77P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.60     6.71     5.23     0.02     0.30    28.73     5.54P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.49     6.95    16.00     0.07     0.74    41.72    10.96P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      64.09     6.63    -2.26     0.00     0.01     8.58     1.73P    0.07R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.60     6.62    11.69     0.01     0.05    13.90     3.48P    0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.39     6.86     7.49     0.00     0.04    13.55     3.07P    0.11R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.08     6.71    -2.60     0.00     0.00     3.89     0.73P    0.50R    0.03  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      54.63     6.41   -22.29     0.00     0.00     0.36     0.05P    5.19R    0.44  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.20     6.75    -5.04     0.00     0.00     1.95     0.36P    1.43R    0.08  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.21     6.67    -4.98     0.00     0.00     1.69     0.37P    1.38R    0.06  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      57.17     6.63    -7.36     0.00     0.00     1.12     0.22P    2.19R    0.16  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.55     6.63   -10.89     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.10P    3.85R    0.28  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.35     6.61   -15.27     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P    9.83R    1.27  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.26     6.72   -11.29     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   10.41R    1.35  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.94     6.55   -18.25     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   21.65R    3.77  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.90     6.41   -22.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.49R   11.27  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.73     6.02   -25.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.70R   18.40  
Southampton      26   23  -18      42.04     6.26   -30.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.46R   24.80  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.72     6.40   -29.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.68R   38.10  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Cheltenham vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.23     7.19    47.18    51.70    82.44    99.55    88.02P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.25     7.19    49.37    39.17    76.16    99.09    83.52P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.70     7.81    13.12     1.21     5.80    62.90    17.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      84.13     7.51    31.23     3.92    15.62    83.72    33.06P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           23   41  +15      81.97     7.51    30.11     2.19     9.97    76.27    28.72P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.30     7.64    24.47     1.43     7.00    68.10    21.61P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.58     7.50    19.23     0.19     1.41    38.41    11.34P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.64     7.71     7.00     0.06     0.43    19.84     4.44P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.04     7.76    16.59     0.12     1.03    31.67     8.10P    0.02R    0.00  
Huddersfield     23   35   -2      65.68     7.65    -3.92     0.01     0.08     7.24     1.28P    0.26R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.34     7.64    -2.14     0.00     0.01     3.42     0.64P    0.96R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.61     7.66    -1.46     0.00     0.02     3.62     0.67P    0.94R    0.01  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.62     7.54   -14.88     0.00     0.00     0.83     0.15P    4.38R    0.07  
Northampton      23   29   +1      60.86     7.65     1.34     0.00     0.01     2.32     0.54P    1.51R    0.01  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      58.04     7.66    -9.17     0.00     0.00     1.03     0.20P    3.78R    0.08  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.49     7.70     4.30     0.00     0.01     1.72     0.39P    2.32R    0.03  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.76     7.54   -13.64     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   13.72R    0.54  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.49     7.31   -21.41     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   30.01R    1.82  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.75     7.47   -13.38     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.01P   19.52R    0.93  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.60     7.49   -16.20     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   20.76R    1.03  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      46.00     7.15   -21.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.86R    3.49  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      38.84     6.66   -48.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.56R   22.78  
Hereford         23   17  -19      36.09     6.66   -37.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.42R   36.45  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.87     6.92   -41.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.96R   32.76  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              23   46  +18      90.74     7.06    37.21    50.22    85.19    99.10    89.73P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      84.78     7.59    30.16    17.99    58.27    93.96    68.78P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             23   39  +13      77.38     7.62    24.37     3.51    21.94    73.52    33.64P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            22   37  +22      84.27     7.53    46.27    17.97    59.18    93.63    69.94P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           23   37  +18      79.09     7.34    34.60     5.05    30.40    82.06    47.11P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   +9      74.01     7.53    19.85     1.23    11.24    57.60    22.13P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.14     7.78     7.26     0.48     4.92    35.33    10.37P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           22   35  +13      75.82     7.82    25.71     2.51    17.76    66.86    30.60P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             22   35   +8      72.10     7.89    14.64     0.88     8.09    46.44    15.81P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.74     7.61    -2.11     0.06     0.98    14.06     3.05P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      64.99     7.69    -5.80     0.05     1.08    14.88     3.01P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.90     7.53     4.47     0.02     0.46     9.89     2.55P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.55     7.63     5.23     0.01     0.36     7.91     1.90P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.64     6.89   -37.53     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P    0.98R    0.13  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.53     7.13   -27.16     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    1.22R    0.18  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      50.71     7.28   -18.36     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P    0.61R    0.07  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.41     7.21   -19.88     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.02P    0.96R    0.16  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.78     7.29   -24.09     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.01P    1.78R    0.30  
Accrington_Stanley   22   22   -9      48.29     7.51   -19.58     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    1.63R    0.30  
Rotherham            22   19   +7      57.95     7.97    16.61     0.00     0.11     3.88     1.26P    0.10R    0.01  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.65     6.93   -41.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.38R    4.11  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      32.10     6.52   -45.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.68R   24.66  
Bournemouth          23    7   -9      32.28     7.23   -18.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    50.72R   24.09  
Luton                23   -1   -3      28.22     7.56    -6.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.93R   45.99  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 1 January 2009, Crawley_Town vs Woking; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        27   61  +23      94.65     6.50    35.24    61.70    98.38    69.88P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.63     7.46    29.47    16.23    82.83    31.95P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   46  +18      79.64     6.88    27.87     2.53    53.67    16.11P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      81.02     7.13    21.39     3.94    59.20    16.16P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.17     7.24    26.75     5.89    66.77    21.64P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      74.81     6.75    15.64     0.35    24.31     6.25P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      83.18     7.46    34.57     8.37    71.57    26.31P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    26   38   +9      70.13     6.83    16.08     0.05     9.63     2.71P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage            27   38   -1      64.49     6.59    -0.56     0.00     1.66     0.25P    0.08R    0.00  
Kettering            22   36   +7      75.01     7.88    16.28     0.93    29.03     8.21P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   36   +2      64.82     6.77     4.20     0.00     2.09     0.39P    0.15R    0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      58.95     6.86   -17.59     0.00     0.29     0.04P    1.64R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   26   33  -11      56.36     6.75   -18.11     0.00     0.07     0.01P    3.99R    0.01  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      58.00     6.74    -6.77     0.00     0.18     0.02P    2.01R    0.01  
Ebbsfleet_United     27   30   -6      54.36     6.55    -8.49     0.00     0.02     0.00     5.68R    0.04  
York                 27   29   -4      58.21     6.73     0.98     0.00     0.10     0.03P    1.79R    0.02  
Grays_Athletic       25   28  -10      48.67     6.69   -22.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.09R    0.40  
Salisbury            25   28  -11      49.21     6.72   -23.14     0.00     0.01     0.00P   23.86R    0.37  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      56.91     7.08    -0.35     0.00     0.17     0.03P    3.19R    0.06  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.51     7.09   -17.57     0.00     0.02     0.00P   15.05R    0.32  
Woking               26   26   -6      50.15     6.68    -9.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.98R    0.28  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      51.09     7.18   -20.03     0.00     0.02     0.00P   17.27R    0.36  
Lewes                25   17  -29      29.58     5.50   -56.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.10R   81.02  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.43     6.93   -27.97     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.12R   17.10  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4