Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 1 January 2009 at 22:05:16 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2008, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      82.28     5.87    41.84    35.75    70.71    93.35    98.62    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.34     5.22    58.04    47.84    80.84    96.49    99.41    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         18   38  +19      78.33     6.43    37.95    15.24    41.51    81.00    94.27    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   38  +11      69.48     6.33    22.13     0.96     5.26    19.72    62.35    95.49     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.83     6.36    20.10     0.21     1.56     8.21    35.01    88.24     0.00     0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.48     6.44     3.13     0.00     0.09     0.72     5.22    43.59     0.03R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      54.04     6.72     3.25     0.00     0.02     0.31     2.37    25.12     0.32R    0.02  
Hull            20   27   -9      48.31     6.30   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.25     5.40     2.99R    0.30  
Fulham          19   26   +4      52.91     6.63     6.23     0.00     0.01     0.12     1.65    20.50     0.43R    0.02  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.46     6.38    -9.10     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14     3.67     4.86R    0.54  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.36     6.44    -9.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.86     7.13R    1.05  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      40.89     6.09   -23.17     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.46    22.95R    4.90  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.44     6.34    14.04     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.54    11.85     1.28R    0.13  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.67     6.40   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.51    11.36R    2.04  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.32     6.22   -16.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.65    19.32R    3.67  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.69     6.37    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.75    17.55R    3.55  
Middlesbrough   20   20  -12      37.47     5.99   -22.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    42.05R   12.41  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.42     6.04   -27.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    43.42R   13.53  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.39     6.04   -27.73     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    56.04R   22.06  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.41     5.82   -33.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    70.28R   35.77  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      96.87     6.44    43.94    62.97    91.19    99.95    93.47P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.46     6.29    52.20    31.34    78.71    99.77    86.48P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      84.71     6.78    20.26     4.83    21.97    94.77    40.36P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      77.81     6.77    20.47     0.54     4.17    75.96    23.26P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.52     6.94     9.73     0.11     1.15    50.79    10.44P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.65     6.68    21.21     0.12     1.67    60.81    18.29P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.77     6.73     5.48     0.03     0.30    29.40     5.88P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.64     6.94    16.20     0.06     0.72    42.48    11.44P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      64.12     6.67    -2.25     0.00     0.02     8.73     1.76P    0.06R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.75     6.58    11.87     0.00     0.06    14.19     3.73P    0.04R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.23     6.86     7.24     0.00     0.04    13.07     3.02P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.08     6.79    -2.52     0.00     0.00     3.98     0.79P    0.49R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      54.85     6.45   -22.04     0.00     0.00     0.50     0.05P    4.81R    0.34  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.25     6.75    -4.90     0.00     0.00     1.82     0.36P    1.41R    0.08  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.51     6.67    -4.55     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.32P    1.38R    0.09  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      57.02     6.62    -7.59     0.00     0.00     0.95     0.17P    2.32R    0.16  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.50     6.60   -10.99     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.12P    4.06R    0.29  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.18     6.60   -15.55     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.03P   10.50R    1.34  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.39     6.71   -11.18     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   10.06R    1.32  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.99     6.53   -18.16     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   21.26R    3.59  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.83     6.35   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    44.47R   11.50  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.62     6.01   -25.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.99R   18.62  
Southampton      26   23  -18      42.00     6.25   -30.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.29R   24.52  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.70     6.44   -29.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.76R   38.13  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Cheltenham vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.32     7.15    47.34    52.33    82.89    99.51    88.50P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.09     7.25    49.13    38.26    74.94    98.95    82.58P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.85     7.82    13.37     1.26     5.98    63.50    17.73P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      84.12     7.60    31.22     3.84    15.80    83.41    32.75P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           23   41  +15      81.91     7.57    29.94     2.38    10.12    75.81    28.77P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.37     7.66    24.59     1.49     7.17    68.47    21.61P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.60     7.60    19.27     0.23     1.52    38.63    11.51P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.62     7.67     6.96     0.05     0.41    19.80     4.30P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.03     7.77    16.56     0.14     1.06    31.28     8.06P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     23   35   -2      65.71     7.63    -3.93     0.01     0.07     7.16     1.33P    0.27R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.29     7.62    -2.25     0.00     0.02     3.32     0.63P    1.06R    0.00  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.69     7.65    -1.32     0.00     0.02     3.57     0.70P    0.93R    0.01  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.62     7.50   -14.90     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.14P    4.12R    0.07  
Northampton      23   29   +1      61.03     7.70     1.60     0.00     0.01     2.52     0.64P    1.44R    0.00  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      58.28     7.67    -8.81     0.00     0.00     1.09     0.21P    3.72R    0.07  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.80     7.75     4.89     0.00     0.00     1.84     0.48P    2.41R    0.05  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.68     7.53   -13.77     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   13.27R    0.49  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.60     7.29   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   29.08R    1.68  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.69     7.56   -13.46     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   19.82R    0.99  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.49     7.38   -16.46     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   20.53R    1.03  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      45.67     7.07   -21.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   44.15R    3.67  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      38.80     6.67   -48.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.47R   22.80  
Hereford         23   17  -19      36.00     6.66   -37.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.21R   36.23  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.73     6.88   -41.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.48R   32.89  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              23   46  +18      90.71     7.06    37.17    49.87    84.84    99.05    89.39P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      84.68     7.55    30.01    17.30    57.67    93.53    68.43P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             23   39  +13      77.58     7.56    24.72     3.65    22.38    74.32    34.15P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            22   37  +22      84.28     7.54    46.37    18.04    58.89    93.30    69.67P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           23   37  +18      79.43     7.33    35.18     5.66    31.39    82.97    47.84P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   +9      74.30     7.49    20.22     1.30    11.39    58.48    22.45P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.20     7.79     7.33     0.53     4.82    35.40    10.45P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           22   35  +13      76.13     7.71    26.22     2.59    18.13    67.90    31.07P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             22   35   +8      72.00     7.88    14.47     0.91     7.72    45.47    15.20P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.74     7.59    -2.11     0.06     0.89    13.61     2.90P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      64.98     7.69    -5.79     0.05     1.04    14.46     2.93P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.56     7.55     3.95     0.02     0.41     9.21     2.27P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.56     7.60     5.30     0.01     0.33     7.89     1.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.69     6.93   -37.39     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P    1.04R    0.12  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.58     7.07   -26.98     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.95R    0.12  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      50.78     7.22   -18.31     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P    0.52R    0.06  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.27     7.15   -20.13     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P    0.89R    0.13  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.53     7.33   -24.59     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.90R    0.30  
Accrington_Stanley   22   22   -9      48.23     7.44   -19.75     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P    1.62R    0.25  
Rotherham            22   19   +7      57.88     7.92    16.48     0.00     0.07     3.66     1.27P    0.12R    0.01  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.75     6.91   -40.92     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.68R    3.86  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      31.94     6.44   -45.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.10R   24.66  
Bournemouth          23    7   -9      32.14     7.31   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.08R   24.46  
Luton                23   -1   -3      28.13     7.62    -6.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.07R   46.02  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 1 January 2009, Crawley_Town vs Woking; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        27   61  +23      94.63     6.50    35.18    61.37    98.42    69.49P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.59     7.42    29.35    16.00    82.71    31.83P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         26   46  +18      79.53     6.86    27.73     2.44    52.90    15.96P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      81.08     7.16    21.47     4.17    59.31    16.64P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.09     7.21    26.65     5.55    65.96    21.05P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      75.15     6.80    16.12     0.52    26.11     6.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      83.40     7.49    34.89     8.88    72.42    26.75P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    26   38   +9      70.02     6.78    15.95     0.07     8.94     2.39P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage            27   38   -1      64.36     6.55    -0.71     0.00     1.60     0.24P    0.13R    0.00  
Kettering            22   36   +7      74.96     7.89    16.20     0.99    28.67     8.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           26   36   +2      64.84     6.85     4.27     0.00     2.16     0.41P    0.12R    0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      58.90     6.79   -17.70     0.00     0.27     0.04P    1.54R    0.00  
Eastbourne_Borough   26   33  -11      56.23     6.73   -18.34     0.00     0.07     0.00P    4.17R    0.01  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      58.14     6.76    -6.51     0.00     0.17     0.02P    1.97R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United     27   30   -6      54.47     6.60    -8.37     0.00     0.03     0.01P    5.53R    0.07  
York                 27   29   -4      58.15     6.80     0.88     0.00     0.09     0.01P    1.96R    0.03  
Grays_Athletic       25   28  -10      48.87     6.68   -21.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.94R    0.38  
Salisbury            25   28  -11      49.12     6.69   -23.29     0.00     0.00     0.00    24.28R    0.35  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      56.90     7.07    -0.40     0.00     0.15     0.02P    3.25R    0.04  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.46     6.98   -17.70     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.87R    0.29  
Woking               26   26   -6      50.19     6.72    -9.40     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.26R    0.28  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      51.05     7.10   -20.06     0.00     0.01     0.00P   17.27R    0.42  
Lewes                25   17  -29      29.53     5.46   -56.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.08R   80.84  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.31     6.94   -28.20     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.62R   17.27  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4