Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Wednesday 31 December 2008 at 22:05:16 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2008, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      82.22     5.83    41.71    35.32    70.06    93.23    98.57    99.97     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.21     5.27    57.86    46.94    79.84    96.19    99.40    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         18   38  +19      78.57     6.48    38.29    16.63    43.28    81.66    94.55    99.72     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   38  +11      69.45     6.30    22.14     0.88     5.09    19.47    62.26    95.64     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.90     6.37    20.19     0.22     1.63     8.33    35.30    88.42     0.00     0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.43     6.42     3.03     0.00     0.06     0.62     4.95    43.66     0.04R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      54.06     6.70     3.29     0.00     0.02     0.24     2.30    25.22     0.33R    0.03  
Hull            20   27   -9      48.21     6.33   -15.88     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19     5.17     3.26R    0.32  
Fulham          19   26   +4      52.86     6.63     6.15     0.00     0.02     0.20     1.63    20.24     0.40R    0.02  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.67     6.40    -8.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16     3.95     4.59R    0.52  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.26     6.43   -10.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.08     2.49     7.44R    1.08  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      41.14     6.13   -22.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.54    21.63R    4.27  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.46     6.33    14.10     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.54    11.80     1.28R    0.13  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.67     6.39   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.49    11.32R    1.95  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.19     6.19   -16.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.66    19.99R    3.74  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.65     6.37    -9.43     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.75    17.77R    3.63  
Middlesbrough   20   20  -12      37.47     6.02   -22.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    42.02R   12.30  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.42     6.10   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10    43.78R   13.71  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.30     6.04   -27.83     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05    56.62R   22.43  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.45     5.90   -33.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    69.52R   35.87  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      96.94     6.47    44.01    63.38    91.01    99.96    93.40P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.42     6.31    52.18    30.89    78.37    99.78    86.46P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      84.76     6.84    20.32     4.96    22.42    94.72    40.68P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      77.81     6.72    20.41     0.43     4.17    76.06    23.16P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.62     6.92     9.90     0.10     1.18    51.47    10.44P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.50     6.66    21.01     0.17     1.65    59.60    17.86P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.76     6.77     5.44     0.02     0.33    29.50     5.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.66     6.90    16.21     0.06     0.77    42.72    11.63P    0.00     0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      64.16     6.67    -2.27     0.00     0.03     8.70     1.74P    0.08R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.51     6.67    11.48     0.00     0.05    13.91     3.66P    0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.27     6.82     7.26     0.00     0.02    13.17     3.02P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.30     6.71    -2.22     0.00     0.01     4.18     0.81P    0.47R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      54.85     6.43   -21.99     0.00     0.00     0.45     0.08P    5.02R    0.38  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.17     6.79    -5.06     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.36P    1.52R    0.10  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.58     6.76    -4.46     0.00     0.00     2.01     0.47P    1.32R    0.10  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      56.98     6.61    -7.68     0.00     0.00     0.99     0.18P    2.26R    0.14  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.45     6.61   -11.06     0.00     0.00     0.60     0.14P    4.04R    0.37  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.34     6.56   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P    9.76R    1.15  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.38     6.67   -11.12     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   10.00R    1.33  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.84     6.52   -18.39     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   21.66R    3.85  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.81     6.38   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.95R   11.64  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.67     5.98   -25.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.78R   18.34  
Southampton      26   23  -18      42.18     6.24   -30.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.88R   23.70  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.60     6.43   -29.76     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.10R   38.87  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Cheltenham vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.33     7.17    47.33    52.43    82.86    99.50    88.47P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.07     7.24    49.02    38.07    74.75    98.93    82.62P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.69     7.77    13.14     1.17     5.73    62.69    17.29P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      84.18     7.56    31.32     4.05    16.03    83.58    33.23P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           23   41  +15      82.14     7.58    30.30     2.40    10.61    76.90    29.74P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.32     7.66    24.55     1.45     6.96    68.29    21.47P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.48     7.54    19.10     0.22     1.45    38.13    10.96P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.64     7.73     7.01     0.07     0.44    20.20     4.41P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.01     7.74    16.50     0.13     1.02    31.43     7.85P    0.02R    0.00  
Huddersfield     23   35   -2      65.60     7.63    -4.09     0.01     0.08     6.93     1.25P    0.30R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.45     7.54    -1.96     0.00     0.02     3.22     0.62P    0.98R    0.01  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.79     7.64    -1.12     0.00     0.03     3.89     0.77P    0.81R    0.01  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.55     7.56   -14.95     0.00     0.00     0.82     0.12P    4.36R    0.07  
Northampton      23   29   +1      60.81     7.69     1.23     0.00     0.01     2.31     0.56P    1.68R    0.02  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      57.90     7.62    -9.46     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.18P    3.97R    0.07  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.73     7.74     4.76     0.00     0.00     1.81     0.40P    2.39R    0.04  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.92     7.64   -13.34     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.04P   13.35R    0.48  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.56     7.23   -21.25     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   29.28R    1.48  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.85     7.56   -13.23     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.01P   19.35R    0.91  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.39     7.36   -16.56     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   20.70R    0.98  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      45.75     7.16   -21.45     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   44.08R    3.62  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      38.89     6.68   -48.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.15R   22.48  
Hereford         23   17  -19      36.02     6.59   -37.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.76R   36.27  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.80     6.98   -41.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    86.78R   33.56  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              23   46  +18      90.57     7.10    36.98    48.99    84.64    98.94    89.30P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      84.73     7.60    30.10    18.02    58.04    93.44    68.56P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             23   39  +13      77.34     7.67    24.30     3.48    21.87    73.19    33.24P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            22   37  +22      84.41     7.53    46.54    18.66    59.96    93.59    70.52P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           23   37  +18      79.24     7.35    34.90     5.37    30.84    82.31    47.24P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   +9      74.09     7.47    19.90     1.29    10.95    58.08    22.00P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.35     7.84     7.57     0.55     5.16    36.40    11.05P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           22   35  +13      75.87     7.81    25.79     2.69    17.55    66.88    30.58P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             22   35   +8      72.11     7.84    14.66     0.80     8.04    46.69    15.80P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.76     7.68    -2.07     0.06     1.08    14.26     3.24P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      65.00     7.69    -5.74     0.07     1.06    14.88     3.06P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.51     7.54     3.88     0.01     0.39     9.05     2.22P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.63     7.54     5.37     0.01     0.32     7.80     1.76P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.77     6.92   -37.26     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.95R    0.13  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.73     7.14   -26.82     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.20R    0.19  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      50.80     7.25   -18.29     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P    0.57R    0.07  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.27     7.18   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P    0.97R    0.17  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.65     7.25   -24.32     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.81R    0.31  
Accrington_Stanley   22   22   -9      48.21     7.49   -19.72     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.01P    1.61R    0.28  
Rotherham            22   19   +7      57.74     7.95    16.25     0.00     0.09     3.63     1.34P    0.08R    0.01  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.57     6.94   -41.23     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.01R    4.46  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      32.28     6.52   -45.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.28R   23.77  
Bournemouth          23    7   -9      32.02     7.22   -19.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    52.29R   25.24  
Luton                23   -1   -3      28.38     7.58    -6.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.22R   45.39  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Mansfield vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        26   58  +21      92.57     6.81    32.46    50.91    95.86    60.44P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.73     7.45    29.65    19.58    82.33    34.17P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      80.85     7.17    21.19     4.78    56.29    16.20P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         25   45  +18      81.36     7.06    29.87     5.51    61.43    21.25P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.16     7.19    26.80     6.88    64.83    21.71P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      75.04     6.68    15.96     0.51    24.09     6.49P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      83.28     7.47    34.80    10.36    70.81    27.17P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    25   37   +9      71.32     7.02    17.32     0.18    12.26     3.44P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage            26   37   -1      63.95     6.83    -2.05     0.00     1.42     0.26P    0.14R    0.00  
Kettering            22   36   +7      75.14     7.89    16.52     1.28    28.30     8.41P    0.00R    0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      59.16     6.80   -17.26     0.00     0.24     0.02P    1.17R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   33   +0      63.47     7.03     2.57     0.01     1.37     0.27P    0.31R    0.00  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      57.81     6.76    -7.04     0.00     0.13     0.02P    1.71R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United     26   30   -4      56.68     6.80    -4.93     0.00     0.07     0.01P    2.65R    0.07  
Eastbourne_Borough   25   30  -13      54.13     6.99   -21.18     0.00     0.03     0.01P    6.85R    0.12  
York                 26   29   -2      60.23     7.12     3.99     0.00     0.34     0.08P    1.11R    0.02  
Salisbury            24   28   -9      50.61     7.01   -21.27     0.00     0.00     0.00    16.32R    0.45  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      56.88     7.08    -0.40     0.00     0.15     0.04P    2.76R    0.07  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.54     7.04   -17.49     0.00     0.01     0.00P   12.68R    0.43  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      51.22     7.17   -19.92     0.00     0.02     0.00P   14.85R    0.55  
Woking               25   25   -6      49.13     6.86   -11.20     0.00     0.01     0.00    19.29R    0.68  
Grays_Athletic       24   25  -12      45.78     6.82   -25.85     0.00     0.00     0.00    39.95R    1.90  
Lewes                24   17  -27      31.15     5.87   -53.91     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.58R   72.89  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.07     6.93   -28.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.63R   22.79  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4