Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 30 December 2008 at 22:05:10 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 December 2008, Hull vs Aston_Villa; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      82.27     5.86    41.83    35.19    70.55    93.18    98.62    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.26     5.29    57.94    47.51    80.57    96.33    99.32   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         18   38  +19      78.41     6.53    38.01    16.21    42.26    81.75    94.55    99.66     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     20   38  +11      69.36     6.32    22.00     0.89     4.94    19.40    62.39    95.37     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.72     6.35    19.92     0.19     1.58     8.15    34.78    88.17     0.00     0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.43     6.42     3.06     0.00     0.07     0.68     5.12    43.43     0.03R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      54.00     6.66     3.21     0.00     0.03     0.27     2.39    24.87     0.28R    0.02  
Hull            20   27   -9      48.24     6.26   -15.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.24     5.29     2.92R    0.29  
Fulham          19   26   +4      52.90     6.63     6.22     0.00     0.00     0.17     1.68    20.72     0.43R    0.03  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.63     6.37    -8.80     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.13     3.76     4.54R    0.49  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.54     6.46    -9.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.10     2.96     6.89R    0.93  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      41.04     6.09   -22.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.49    22.24R    4.51  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.44     6.36    14.07     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.60    11.98     1.20R    0.11  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.67     6.43   -11.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     1.51    11.48R    2.03  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.26     6.19   -16.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.66    19.58R    3.72  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.80     6.42    -9.24     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.86    16.96R    3.50  
Middlesbrough   20   20  -12      37.39     6.00   -23.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09    42.49R   12.62  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.47     6.11   -27.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.13    43.44R   13.53  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.23     6.01   -28.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    57.42R   22.69  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.47     5.84   -33.71     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    70.08R   35.53  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      96.87     6.45    43.96    62.77    90.66    99.94    93.25P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.33     6.36    52.06    30.84    77.83    99.75    86.02P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      85.08     6.76    20.80     5.45    23.07    95.26    41.88P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      77.83     6.85    20.50     0.57     4.32    75.52    23.21P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.55     6.90     9.74     0.11     1.17    51.30    10.19P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.64     6.66    21.18     0.15     1.68    60.79    18.55P    0.00R    0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.76     6.75     5.46     0.03     0.36    29.42     5.84P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.49     6.95    16.01     0.08     0.76    41.72    10.73P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      64.08     6.63    -2.32     0.00     0.04     8.42     1.62P    0.09R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.72     6.58    11.88     0.00     0.03    14.29     3.62P    0.04R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.45     6.83     7.56     0.00     0.06    13.63     3.17P    0.08R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.13     6.74    -2.52     0.00     0.01     3.90     0.80P    0.51R    0.02  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      54.80     6.48   -22.08     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P    5.01R    0.37  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.20     6.73    -4.98     0.00     0.00     1.78     0.39P    1.51R    0.08  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.43     6.71    -4.69     0.00     0.00     1.75     0.32P    1.35R    0.09  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      56.96     6.68    -7.64     0.00     0.00     1.05     0.21P    2.30R    0.18  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.62     6.59   -10.81     0.00     0.00     0.62     0.09P    3.74R    0.30  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.25     6.57   -15.42     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.02P    9.91R    1.21  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.35     6.72   -11.20     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.03P    9.92R    1.28  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.93     6.52   -18.29     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   21.49R    3.73  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.78     6.33   -23.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   44.73R   11.19  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.71     6.05   -25.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.27R   18.19  
Southampton      26   23  -18      41.96     6.23   -31.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.72R   24.59  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.55     6.37   -29.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.31R   38.76  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Cheltenham vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.43     7.21    47.46    52.68    83.22    99.50    88.68P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.13     7.22    49.20    38.27    75.59    99.06    82.98P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.71     7.72    13.15     1.18     5.66    62.90    17.09P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      84.12     7.55    31.25     3.85    15.51    83.58    33.27P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           23   41  +15      81.98     7.54    30.09     2.29    10.18    76.09    29.18P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.26     7.60    24.45     1.37     6.80    68.17    21.33P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.45     7.55    19.00     0.21     1.40    38.09    10.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.58     7.75     6.89     0.04     0.40    20.10     4.41P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.22     7.68    16.83     0.11     1.10    32.29     8.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     23   35   -2      65.61     7.62    -4.06     0.01     0.08     6.94     1.19P    0.27R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.39     7.57    -2.05     0.00     0.02     3.26     0.59P    0.98R    0.01  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.63     7.57    -1.47     0.00     0.02     3.51     0.66P    0.84R    0.01  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.51     7.48   -15.07     0.00     0.00     0.75     0.10P    4.37R    0.06  
Northampton      23   29   +1      61.06     7.69     1.59     0.00     0.01     2.44     0.53P    1.52R    0.01  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      57.94     7.64    -9.40     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.21P    3.95R    0.05  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.83     7.79     4.88     0.00     0.00     2.00     0.48P    2.31R    0.05  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.90     7.57   -13.38     0.00     0.00     0.16     0.04P   12.77R    0.43  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.37     7.26   -21.59     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    30.47R    1.71  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.90     7.52   -13.12     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   18.72R    0.86  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.58     7.39   -16.27     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   20.20R    1.03  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      45.67     7.15   -21.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.21R    3.76  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      38.83     6.70   -48.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.21R   22.95  
Hereford         23   17  -19      36.08     6.69   -37.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.25R   36.06  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.74     6.80   -41.41     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.86R   33.01  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              23   46  +18      90.47     7.11    36.89    47.90    83.84    98.93    88.62P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      84.93     7.54    30.34    18.67    58.70    93.89    69.13P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             23   39  +13      77.34     7.54    24.36     3.37    21.29    72.95    32.91P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            22   37  +22      84.42     7.55    46.53    18.85    59.62    93.55    70.07P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           23   37  +18      79.35     7.36    35.04     5.45    31.06    82.58    47.72P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   +9      74.15     7.47    20.00     1.32    11.10    57.79    21.95P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.15     7.88     7.24     0.56     4.99    35.29    10.26P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           22   35  +13      76.18     7.83    26.31     2.80    18.40    68.16    31.72P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             22   35   +8      72.16     7.93    14.75     0.93     8.17    46.78    16.09P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.67     7.62    -2.21     0.05     0.91    13.62     2.96P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      64.91     7.72    -5.92     0.07     1.03    14.58     2.85P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.61     7.65     4.01     0.01     0.46     9.42     2.53P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.60     7.56     5.32     0.01     0.33     7.78     1.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.63     6.87   -37.57     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.02R    0.11  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.71     7.11   -26.80     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.00P    1.00R    0.13  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      51.01     7.30   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    0.56R    0.08  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.27     7.20   -20.10     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    0.97R    0.14  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.69     7.29   -24.37     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P    1.82R    0.25  
Accrington_Stanley   22   22   -9      48.17     7.51   -19.83     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.02P    1.69R    0.29  
Rotherham            22   19   +7      57.98     7.94    16.66     0.00     0.09     3.84     1.30P    0.09R    0.01  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.69     6.83   -40.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    14.30R    3.83  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      32.00     6.46   -45.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.28R   23.80  
Bournemouth          23    7   -9      31.94     7.25   -19.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.96R   25.13  
Luton                23   -1   -3      28.07     7.58    -6.77     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.32R   46.23  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Mansfield vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        26   58  +21      92.74     6.76    32.69    51.89    96.23    61.36P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.61     7.38    29.49    18.92    82.10    33.82P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      81.18     7.19    21.70     5.02    58.39    17.16P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         25   45  +18      81.34     7.06    29.81     5.43    61.31    20.99P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.24     7.19    26.90     6.88    65.11    21.92P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      75.13     6.71    16.08     0.53    24.43     6.58P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      83.07     7.52    34.42    10.06    69.66    26.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    25   37   +9      71.21     7.11    17.15     0.19    12.30     3.44P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage            26   37   -1      63.74     6.81    -2.40     0.00     1.41     0.23P    0.14R    0.00  
Kettering            22   36   +7      74.75     7.83    15.99     1.08    26.58     7.54P    0.00     0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      59.12     6.78   -17.29     0.00     0.25     0.03P    1.19R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           25   33   +0      63.43     7.08     2.52     0.00     1.52     0.34P    0.34R    0.00  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      57.84     6.75    -6.99     0.00     0.12     0.02P    1.81R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United     26   30   -4      56.41     6.80    -5.32     0.00     0.04     0.00P    2.97R    0.06  
Eastbourne_Borough   25   30  -13      54.10     6.92   -21.21     0.00     0.05     0.01P    6.94R    0.11  
York                 26   29   -2      60.41     7.07     4.27     0.00     0.32     0.05P    0.95R    0.01  
Salisbury            24   28   -9      50.54     6.99   -21.42     0.00     0.01     0.00    16.58R    0.45  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      57.06     7.13    -0.17     0.00     0.14     0.03P    2.72R    0.10  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.62     6.98   -17.34     0.00     0.01     0.00    12.53R    0.42  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      51.18     7.18   -19.93     0.00     0.01     0.00P   15.10R    0.57  
Woking               25   25   -6      49.46     6.85   -10.71     0.00     0.00     0.00    17.93R    0.62  
Grays_Athletic       24   25  -12      45.78     6.87   -25.90     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.28R    1.99  
Lewes                24   17  -27      31.22     5.88   -53.80     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.57R   72.58  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.11     6.94   -28.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.94R   23.05  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4