Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 29 December 2008 at 22:05:13 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Arsenal vs Portsmouth; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       20   45  +22      82.31     5.80    41.85    35.46    72.31    94.08    98.86    99.98     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         20   42  +31      83.35     5.21    58.01    48.38    82.15    97.04    99.49    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         17   35  +18      77.76     6.73    38.72    15.11    39.68    80.75    93.70    99.55     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         20   35  +10      65.77     6.33    19.96     0.20     1.55     9.09    38.72    88.32     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     19   35  +10      68.14     6.72    21.90     0.84     4.23    17.51    56.64    92.42     0.00R    0.00  
Everton         20   32   +2      57.36     6.47     2.91     0.00     0.05     0.80     5.92    43.25     0.05R    0.00  
Wigan           19   28   +3      53.95     6.73     3.14     0.00     0.02     0.40     2.96    24.81     0.34R    0.03  
Hull            19   27   -8      49.46     6.55   -15.48     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.63     8.28     2.45R    0.24  
Fulham          19   26   +4      52.99     6.64     6.33     0.00     0.01     0.23     2.01    21.19     0.48R    0.03  
West_Ham        20   25   -4      46.57     6.39    -8.96     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.17     3.88     4.85R    0.54  
Bolton          20   23   -6      45.56     6.49    -9.52     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.09     2.95     7.13R    0.96  
Portsmouth      20   23  -12      41.06     6.11   -22.88     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.55    22.56R    4.65  
Man_City        20   22   +8      50.44     6.31    14.04     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.73    11.64     1.25R    0.14  
Newcastle       20   22   -6      43.65     6.36   -11.70     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04     1.49    11.52R    2.00  
Sunderland      20   22   -8      41.16     6.22   -16.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.62    20.50R    3.96  
Tottenham       20   20   -5      41.73     6.41    -9.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.80    17.90R    3.72  
Middlesbrough   19   20  -11      37.83     6.16   -23.74     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.11    40.63R   11.92  
Stoke           20   20  -15      37.41     6.08   -27.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.14    44.08R   13.70  
Blackburn       20   18  -14      35.50     6.04   -27.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03    55.65R   21.71  
West_Brom       20   18  -19      33.36     5.84   -33.94     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    70.61R   36.39  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Blackpool vs Wolverhampton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    26   58  +24      97.00     6.51    44.25    63.67    91.07    99.97    93.44P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          26   51  +29      92.30     6.35    51.97    30.62    78.44    99.73    86.53P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       26   51  +11      84.81     6.72    20.40     4.96    22.35    95.02    41.15P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          26   44  +11      77.72     6.76    20.27     0.46     4.05    75.73    22.98P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          26   43   +5      73.46     6.92     9.61     0.10     1.15    50.86    10.40P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        26   41  +12      74.49     6.68    21.01     0.11     1.60    60.12    18.00P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          26   41   +4      69.86     6.73     5.59     0.03     0.38    29.92     5.99P    0.00R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   26   40  +10      71.56     6.99    16.09     0.06     0.83    42.23    10.92P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              26   38   -1      63.96     6.58    -2.45     0.00     0.02     8.10     1.60P    0.08R    0.00  
Ipswich          26   35   +7      65.86     6.63    12.01     0.00     0.05    15.02     3.93P    0.05R    0.00  
Swansea          26   35   +3      65.35     6.85     7.43     0.00     0.04    13.30     3.10P    0.11R    0.00  
Bristol_City     26   34   -2      61.35     6.72    -2.15     0.00     0.01     4.14     0.88P    0.50R    0.03  
Sheff_Wed        26   34  -12      54.93     6.44   -21.91     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.06P    4.85R    0.36  
Coventry         26   33   -2      58.24     6.68    -4.97     0.00     0.00     1.65     0.30P    1.47R    0.08  
Plymouth         26   33   -2      58.38     6.67    -4.76     0.00     0.00     1.73     0.34P    1.33R    0.06  
Barnsley         26   32   -4      56.91     6.63    -7.73     0.00     0.00     0.98     0.20P    2.34R    0.15  
Blackpool        26   31   -7      55.45     6.58   -11.08     0.00     0.00     0.58     0.10P    4.00R    0.33  
Derby            26   29   -9      52.36     6.62   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.04P    9.97R    1.15  
Watford          26   27   -6      52.39     6.69   -11.18     0.00     0.00     0.22     0.03P   10.17R    1.29  
Norwich          26   26  -10      48.88     6.55   -18.34     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   22.01R    3.80  
Nottm_Forest     26   24  -12      44.94     6.39   -22.78     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.90R   11.20  
Doncaster        26   24  -14      42.68     5.99   -25.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    59.59R   18.38  
Southampton      26   23  -18      42.07     6.24   -30.87     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.16R   24.13  
Charlton         26   19  -17      39.54     6.43   -29.90     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.46R   39.04  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Cheltenham vs Peterborough; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        23   51  +24      97.44     7.14    47.47    52.12    83.05    99.52    88.46P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          23   49  +25      95.30     7.29    49.50    38.93    76.09    98.99    83.35P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         23   44   +7      79.67     7.74    13.12     1.10     5.58    62.24    17.13P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     23   43  +15      84.09     7.53    31.16     3.87    15.48    83.50    33.20P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           23   41  +15      81.94     7.54    29.99     2.25    10.00    75.96    28.51P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       23   41  +12      80.30     7.66    24.51     1.39     6.83    68.13    21.41P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        23   37  +10      74.47     7.57    19.03     0.15     1.32    38.36    11.05P    0.00R    0.00  
Tranmere         23   37   +4      70.75     7.77     7.15     0.07     0.51    20.81     4.74P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds            23   36   +8      73.12     7.70    16.70     0.13     1.00    32.09     8.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Huddersfield     23   35   -2      65.78     7.56    -3.75     0.01     0.06     7.21     1.35P    0.23R    0.00  
Colchester       23   31   -1      62.33     7.59    -2.20     0.00     0.01     3.33     0.62P    1.05R    0.01  
Walsall          23   31   -1      62.48     7.57    -1.65     0.00     0.02     3.33     0.66P    0.92R    0.01  
Southend         23   30   -8      57.50     7.51   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.76     0.15P    4.42R    0.06  
Northampton      23   29   +1      60.84     7.70     1.29     0.00     0.01     2.46     0.55P    1.56R    0.01  
Hartlepool       23   29   -4      58.22     7.71    -8.98     0.00     0.01     1.11     0.20P    3.72R    0.04  
Bristol_Rovers   23   26   +2      59.72     7.78     4.71     0.00     0.01     1.88     0.46P    2.55R    0.04  
Carlisle         23   25   -7      52.67     7.58   -13.80     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.03P   13.90R    0.52  
Yeovil           23   24  -11      48.55     7.33   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.01P   29.56R    1.73  
Brighton         23   23   -7      50.58     7.54   -13.67     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   20.22R    0.97  
Swindon          23   23   -8      50.57     7.45   -16.25     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   20.42R    1.07  
Leyton_Orient    23   22  -11      45.89     7.08   -21.32     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   42.84R    3.47  
Cheltenham       23   20  -23      38.92     6.68   -47.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.07R   22.40  
Hereford         23   17  -19      36.11     6.72   -37.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    89.12R   36.19  
Crewe            23   16  -21      36.71     6.90   -41.53     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.37R   33.47  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 December 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Grimsby; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              23   46  +18      90.56     7.04    36.91    49.60    84.85    99.00    89.51P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            22   41  +14      84.68     7.54    29.96    17.94    58.14    93.71    68.58P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             23   39  +13      77.33     7.62    24.30     3.64    22.03    72.91    33.60P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            22   37  +22      84.17     7.54    46.04    18.18    59.03    93.22    69.80P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           23   37  +18      79.05     7.34    34.58     5.04    30.31    81.92    46.65P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 23   36   +9      74.17     7.48    20.07     1.29    11.42    58.10    22.58P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               22   36   +5      70.29     7.86     7.44     0.54     5.16    36.38    10.71P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           22   35  +13      75.78     7.81    25.69     2.61    17.37    66.31    30.19P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             22   35   +8      72.26     7.91    14.87     1.02     8.65    47.16    16.43P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           23   34   -1      64.75     7.66    -2.09     0.05     0.99    14.13     3.19P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            22   34   -2      65.08     7.69    -5.57     0.06     1.16    14.92     3.03P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         23   30   +2      62.61     7.51     3.97     0.03     0.43     9.14     2.31P    0.00R    0.00  
Chesterfield         23   28   +2      61.76     7.58     5.62     0.01     0.35     8.35     1.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Macclesfield         23   27  -18      48.72     7.00   -37.28     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P    1.07R    0.16  
Port_Vale            23   26  -13      48.69     7.18   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.02P    1.15R    0.17  
Morecambe            23   25   -9      50.88     7.26   -18.11     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.05P    0.55R    0.05  
Notts_County         23   24  -10      49.28     7.20   -20.06     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.01P    0.99R    0.16  
Chester              23   23  -13      47.68     7.27   -24.29     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P    1.79R    0.32  
Accrington_Stanley   22   22   -9      48.43     7.54   -19.32     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P    1.54R    0.27  
Rotherham            22   19   +7      57.88     7.94    16.43     0.00     0.08     3.86     1.27P    0.09R    0.01  
Barnet               23   19  -21      39.51     6.87   -41.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    15.68R    4.36  
Grimsby              23   14  -23      32.15     6.56   -45.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.09R   24.04  
Bournemouth          23    7   -9      32.11     7.23   -19.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.54R   24.63  
Luton                23   -1   -3      28.26     7.57    -6.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    70.52R   45.82  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 December 2008, Mansfield vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        26   58  +21      92.72     6.77    32.69    51.33    96.43    61.05P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               24   48  +16      86.75     7.41    29.69    19.14    82.50    34.18P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        25   46  +12      81.11     7.15    21.58     5.02    57.79    17.04P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         25   45  +18      81.48     7.01    30.00     5.49    62.11    21.21P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              25   45  +14      82.41     7.20    27.21     7.26    66.11    22.44P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        26   43   +9      74.99     6.76    15.92     0.57    24.14     6.61P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              23   41  +17      82.97     7.47    34.27     9.86    69.23    26.07P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    25   37   +9      71.05     7.04    16.90     0.15    11.67     3.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Stevenage            26   37   -1      63.89     6.78    -2.17     0.00     1.43     0.21P    0.18R    0.00  
Kettering            22   36   +7      74.59     7.97    15.75     1.19    26.08     7.51P    0.01R    0.00  
Altrincham           25   35  -10      58.81     6.79   -17.82     0.00     0.25     0.03P    1.38R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           25   33   +0      63.50     7.08     2.60     0.00     1.45     0.28P    0.32R    0.00  
Weymouth             26   32   -4      57.95     6.78    -6.86     0.00     0.13     0.03P    1.65R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United     26   30   -4      56.58     6.84    -5.04     0.00     0.08     0.02P    2.76R    0.04  
Eastbourne_Borough   25   30  -13      54.27     6.98   -20.99     0.00     0.05     0.01P    6.79R    0.15  
York                 26   29   -2      60.34     7.13     4.16     0.00     0.34     0.07P    0.98R    0.02  
Salisbury            24   28   -9      50.61     7.07   -21.38     0.00     0.01     0.00P   16.37R    0.43  
Mansfield            25   27   -2      57.06     7.13    -0.13     0.00     0.15     0.03P    2.67R    0.09  
Barrow               24   27   -7      51.66     7.05   -17.30     0.00     0.02     0.00    12.54R    0.39  
Forest_Green         24   26  -11      51.19     7.09   -19.93     0.00     0.02     0.00    14.75R    0.54  
Woking               25   25   -6      49.44     6.93   -10.78     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.35R    0.67  
Grays_Athletic       24   25  -12      45.67     6.75   -25.95     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.58R    2.03  
Lewes                24   17  -27      31.15     5.83   -53.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    97.75R   72.89  
Northwich            24   15  -15      37.10     6.91   -28.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    82.92R   22.72  

Adjustments:
Mansfield            -4