Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 21 December 2008 at 22:34:58 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 21 December 2008, Arsenal vs Liverpool; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       18   39  +15      77.57     6.67    31.78    11.04    46.21    79.92    94.19    99.63     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         17   37  +29      86.66     5.66    63.63    75.82    93.50    98.74    99.76    99.99     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     18   34  +10      68.78     7.04    22.25     1.03     8.49    26.54    62.95    93.29     0.00R    0.00  
Man_Utd         16   32  +17      77.40     6.98    40.12    11.83    48.38    80.01    93.70    99.46     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         18   31   +9      65.02     7.02    19.87     0.27     3.24    13.11    38.45    85.44     0.00     0.00  
Hull            18   27   -4      51.59     7.02   -10.01     0.00     0.04     0.30     1.95    17.60     1.68R    0.10  
Everton         17   25   -2      51.22     7.25    -6.89     0.00     0.03     0.27     1.69    17.45     2.24R    0.13  
Fulham          17   24   +4      52.77     7.04     5.37     0.00     0.04     0.46     2.58    24.20     0.88R    0.02  
Bolton          18   23   -2      48.93     7.12    -4.54     0.00     0.01     0.12     0.82    11.16     3.69R    0.30  
Portsmouth      18   23   -8      44.57     6.85   -17.73     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.20     3.39    12.35R    1.41  
Wigan           17   22   +1      49.97     7.55    -0.14     0.00     0.04     0.28     1.63    15.22     3.42R    0.28  
Newcastle       18   22   -1      47.58     7.02    -4.05     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.54     8.02     5.27R    0.49  
Sunderland      18   21   -5      45.20     7.06   -10.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.23     4.50    10.71R    1.13  
Middlesbrough   18   20  -10      39.20     6.56   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.59    36.05R    6.59  
Stoke           18   20  -13      39.26     6.60   -26.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.47    36.71R    7.26  
Tottenham       18   19   -3      45.24     7.01    -4.70     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.22     4.32    10.09R    1.27  
West_Ham        18   19   -8      41.20     6.96   -15.91     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.05     1.41    25.21R    4.17  
Man_City        18   18   +4      49.62     7.05    10.83     0.00     0.01     0.10     1.01    13.70     3.31R    0.30  
Blackburn       18   16  -14      34.87     6.69   -30.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16    62.45R   21.32  
West_Brom       18   15  -19      30.06     6.07   -39.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01    85.93R   55.23  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 December 2008, Barnsley vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    24   56  +24      99.27     6.91    46.56    59.87    92.08    99.97    94.27P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          24   49  +29      95.85     6.59    56.83    36.70    86.46    99.89    91.77P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       24   47  +10      83.92     7.35    19.86     2.60    13.54    91.17    33.40P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          24   43   +7      78.96     7.36    15.76     0.51     3.98    75.82    18.79P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          24   40  +10      75.95     7.28    18.22     0.19     2.01    63.21    18.13P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        24   37  +10      73.08     7.29    18.58     0.07     0.88    48.62    14.80P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   24   37   +9      72.50     7.47    16.88     0.05     0.73    45.10    12.34P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          24   37   +2      68.53     7.26     3.19     0.01     0.15    23.32     4.50P    0.03R    0.00  
QPR              24   36   -1      65.90     7.17    -0.92     0.00     0.05    13.36     2.71P    0.06R    0.00  
Swansea          24   33   +3      66.17     7.33     7.43     0.00     0.05    16.22     3.80P    0.09R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        24   33  -10      57.31     6.99   -19.04     0.00     0.00     1.28     0.18P    2.45R    0.07  
Ipswich          24   32   +7      65.62     7.17    11.78     0.00     0.06    14.65     3.81P    0.09R    0.00  
Plymouth         24   30   -3      57.80     7.11    -6.57     0.00     0.00     1.87     0.43P    1.91R    0.08  
Coventry         24   29   -4      56.07     7.20    -8.70     0.00     0.00     1.07     0.21P    3.42R    0.16  
Derby            24   29   -6      55.88     7.15   -11.44     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.18P    3.69R    0.21  
Blackpool        24   29   -7      55.33     7.16   -12.41     0.00     0.00     0.72     0.12P    4.60R    0.23  
Barnsley         24   28   -5      54.11     7.17   -11.32     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.14P    5.99R    0.31  
Bristol_City     24   28   -5      55.82     7.16    -8.70     0.00     0.00     0.96     0.20P    3.79R    0.18  
Watford          24   26   -4      55.17     7.19    -7.55     0.00     0.00     0.79     0.17P    4.84R    0.33  
Norwich          24   26   -7      52.60     7.12   -13.77     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    9.18R    0.74  
Southampton      24   22  -16      42.58     6.61   -31.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    58.08R   13.18  
Nottm_Forest     24   21  -11      44.58     6.82   -21.24     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   42.62R    7.39  
Charlton         24   18  -15      40.33     6.79   -29.36     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.41R   21.64  
Doncaster        24   18  -17      35.20     5.93   -32.85     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.73R   55.48  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 December 2008, Cheltenham vs Walsall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        21   47  +23      98.27     7.55    49.96    51.08    82.79    99.42    88.33P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          20   43  +23      96.21     8.08    53.02    39.76    75.05    98.56    82.38P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         21   43   +8      82.91     8.38    16.29     2.74    11.56    74.02    24.40P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       21   38  +11      80.45     8.33    24.22     1.59     7.48    65.90    20.98P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport        21   37  +13      80.71     8.13    27.47     1.57     7.44    68.04    25.99P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           21   37  +12      81.92     8.18    29.47     2.17     9.84    73.33    26.46P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     20   34  +10      77.15     8.66    22.21     0.96     4.50    50.63    15.93P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         21   33   +3      70.35     8.29     7.41     0.05     0.47    20.08     4.67P    0.06R    0.00  
Leeds            21   32   +6      69.12     8.35    10.14     0.07     0.47    17.19     4.10P    0.15R    0.00  
Huddersfield     21   32   -1      65.95     8.33    -2.35     0.01     0.13     8.93     1.62P    0.53R    0.00  
Hartlepool       21   29   +2      65.17     8.31     4.16     0.01     0.10     8.08     1.78P    0.59R    0.01  
Northampton      21   28   +2      64.00     8.49     4.33     0.00     0.08     6.75     1.51P    0.94R    0.01  
Walsall          21   28   -1      61.21     8.20    -3.52     0.00     0.03     3.12     0.59P    1.85R    0.01  
Southend         21   27   -7      55.94     8.06   -17.08     0.00     0.00     0.74     0.16P    7.36R    0.13  
Bristol_Rovers   21   25   +3      60.93     8.36     4.41     0.00     0.03     3.27     0.75P    2.02R    0.02  
Colchester       21   25   -3      58.60     8.20    -5.36     0.00     0.01     1.46     0.28P    4.02R    0.05  
Leyton_Orient    21   22   -9      49.54     7.94   -18.22     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.01P   24.80R    1.02  
Yeovil           21   22  -11      48.93     7.84   -21.96     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   27.54R    1.46  
Carlisle         21   21  -10      48.57     8.06   -22.18     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   29.63R    1.72  
Swindon          21   20   -7      51.33     8.00   -13.58     0.00     0.00     0.14     0.03P   18.27R    0.73  
Brighton         21   20   -8      49.61     8.07   -16.15     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   24.33R    1.23  
Cheltenham       21   19  -20      39.86     7.26   -45.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.11R   14.28  
Hereford         21   16  -18      35.01     6.80   -40.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.36R   33.14  
Crewe            21   13  -21      33.42     7.19   -47.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.45R   46.18  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 December 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Rotherham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              21   44  +18      93.63     7.57    40.18    65.70    91.11    99.37    93.59P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 21   35  +10      76.19     8.05    21.52     2.48    20.40    66.61    31.73P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            20   35  +10      79.82     8.35    23.72     6.32    34.75    79.73    47.46P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             21   35   +9      75.05     8.21    18.56     1.98    16.54    60.98    25.75P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               20   35   +7      71.96     8.35     9.67     1.15     9.53    44.66    16.47P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           21   34  +18      79.86     8.01    36.14     6.50    36.95    81.91    51.49P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           20   33  +13      77.50     8.58    27.33     4.43    26.84    71.36    38.68P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           21   33   +1      65.31     8.10    -2.14     0.12     1.90    16.99     4.47P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             20   32   +8      72.45     8.57    15.59     1.21    11.26    48.51    19.45P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            20   31  +19      81.55     8.34    44.40     9.89    46.81    85.70    58.85P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            20   31   -4      63.07     8.43   -11.02     0.07     1.16    11.89     2.60P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         21   29   +3      65.09     8.19     6.14     0.10     1.79    17.59     5.47P    0.01R    0.00  
Chesterfield         21   26   +2      62.39     8.29     5.27     0.04     0.92    11.21     3.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         21   24  -17      48.13     7.55   -36.30     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.01P    2.66R    0.29  
Port_Vale            21   23  -13      46.61     7.59   -30.19     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    3.98R    0.60  
Morecambe            21   22   -8      50.41     7.97   -17.07     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.07P    1.46R    0.22  
Notts_County         21   21   -8      50.46     7.93   -15.78     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.08P    1.60R    0.22  
Chester              21   20  -13      47.40     7.95   -24.34     0.00     0.01     0.17     0.03P    3.61R    0.64  
Accrington_Stanley   20   19   -9      48.81     8.35   -18.27     0.00     0.01     0.39     0.07P    3.01R    0.50  
Barnet               21   16  -20      38.87     7.58   -41.39     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   24.90R    6.46  
Grimsby              21   14  -20      35.36     7.30   -41.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.11R   12.84  
Rotherham            20   13   +3      53.77     8.58    11.16     0.00     0.04     1.70     0.60P    0.81R    0.12  
Bournemouth          21    7   -5      37.16     7.94   -11.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   30.76R    9.70  
Luton                21   -5   -4      25.04     8.11   -10.37     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.08R   68.41  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 20 December 2008, Altrincham vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        24   52  +18      88.42     7.33    28.02    28.45    84.40    39.24P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               22   44  +13      84.22     8.00    24.46    14.50    66.59    26.33P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              23   42  +14      83.34     7.76    29.41    12.25    65.03    25.81P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        23   42  +11      80.28     7.67    21.62     5.75    48.39    15.41P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         23   41  +17      81.50     7.46    31.72     7.84    56.94    21.21P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        24   41   +9      77.77     7.21    18.91     2.29    34.61    10.98P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              21   39  +17      86.37     7.91    39.22    23.56    78.00    38.57P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    24   37  +11      74.04     7.30    21.33     0.67    19.19     6.11P    0.00R    0.00  
Kettering            21   36   +9      78.84     8.16    21.99     4.67    41.88    15.32P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage            24   33   -3      60.44     7.14    -7.48     0.00     0.43     0.07P    0.55R    0.02  
Weymouth             25   32   -3      58.98     7.03    -6.53     0.00     0.24     0.04P    0.96R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United     24   30   +1      62.61     7.43     4.92     0.01     1.04     0.21P    0.40R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           23   30   -3      62.12     7.59    -2.20     0.00     0.91     0.15P    0.62R    0.01  
York                 24   29   +0      64.54     7.64     8.49     0.02     1.84     0.46P    0.23R    0.01  
Altrincham           23   29  -12      53.31     7.24   -23.65     0.00     0.04     0.00     7.55R    0.33  
Mansfield            23   28   -2      59.09     7.55    -2.61     0.00     0.34     0.08P    1.22R    0.05  
Eastbourne_Borough   23   27  -13      54.38     7.54   -21.15     0.00     0.06     0.02P    6.16R    0.31  
Barrow               22   26   -6      52.88     7.67   -17.56     0.00     0.06     0.01P    8.91R    0.51  
Salisbury            23   25  -10      47.70     7.19   -24.42     0.00     0.00     0.00P   24.30R    1.54  
Woking               23   23   -6      48.06     7.39   -14.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    21.50R    1.53  
Grays_Athletic       22   22  -10      44.48     7.25   -24.88     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.93R    4.32  
Forest_Green         22   22  -12      48.55     7.67   -23.61     0.00     0.01     0.00P   22.62R    2.07  
Lewes                23   17  -26      31.74     6.15   -55.11     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.35R   71.97  
Northwich            23   15  -14      39.14     7.24   -26.79     0.00     0.00     0.00    68.71R   17.30