Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Friday 19 December 2008 at 22:34:56 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 December 2008, Chelsea vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       17   38  +15      78.45     7.06    32.65    13.19    51.06    82.56    94.30    99.51     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         17   37  +29      87.14     5.65    64.26    75.68    93.88    99.02    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         16   32  +17      77.22     7.01    39.70    10.02    44.84    80.31    93.50    99.23     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     17   31   +9      67.17     7.42    21.32     0.78     6.23    21.22    54.96    87.61     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal         17   30   +9      64.76     7.38    18.92     0.32     3.61    13.77    39.03    81.23     0.02R    0.00  
Hull            17   27   -1      55.70     7.46    -2.00     0.01     0.21     1.47     6.82    33.88     0.50R    0.01  
Everton         17   25   -2      51.38     7.28    -6.75     0.00     0.03     0.28     1.96    15.73     2.10R    0.06  
Portsmouth      17   23   -7      46.13     7.28   -16.38     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.55     5.19     8.69R    0.38  
Wigan           17   22   +1      50.27     7.48     0.30     0.00     0.03     0.31     1.77    14.12     2.67R    0.10  
Fulham          16   21   +1      48.75     7.36    -0.54     0.00     0.02     0.16     1.11     9.85     3.70R    0.11  
Bolton          17   20   -3      47.30     7.43    -5.57     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.61     7.26     6.30R    0.30  
Middlesbrough   17   20   -7      41.96     6.96   -17.25     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.10     1.41    20.51R    1.30  
Stoke           17   20  -10      42.80     7.21   -19.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14     1.95    19.06R    1.40  
Newcastle       17   19   -2      45.24     7.27    -6.26     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.35     4.22     9.75R    0.52  
Tottenham       17   19   -2      47.49     7.38    -2.34     0.00     0.01     0.08     0.65     7.63     5.73R    0.33  
West_Ham        17   19   -7      42.51     7.19   -15.47     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.14     1.96    18.84R    1.33  
Man_City        17   18   +5      53.67     7.32    16.94     0.00     0.06     0.61     4.10    27.90     1.02R    0.07  
Sunderland      17   18   -8      40.58     7.28   -18.05     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.06     1.27    27.88R    2.38  
Blackburn       17   13  -17      31.21     6.78   -37.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    78.59R   25.03  
West_Brom       17   12  -20      25.86     6.00   -45.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.64R   66.70  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 15 December 2008, Charlton vs Derby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    23   53  +23      98.21     7.10    46.58    62.05    89.52    99.91    92.33P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       23   47  +12      86.41     7.53    23.57     7.41    28.08    94.76    45.83P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          23   46  +27      93.13     7.01    52.77    29.50    73.25    99.54    83.05P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          23   40   +6      76.92     7.72    14.17     0.48     3.62    65.92    16.49P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37   +8      74.40     7.51    16.51     0.23     1.89    54.60    15.07P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          23   37   +3      70.36     7.53     5.26     0.05     0.54    31.53     6.59P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        23   36  +10      73.99     7.48    19.55     0.15     1.64    53.27    16.32P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   36   +9      71.84     7.83    15.44     0.11     1.08    41.87    11.28P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              23   33   -2      63.66     7.46    -2.47     0.00     0.05     8.92     1.84P    0.28R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed        23   33   -8      58.99     7.35   -16.58     0.00     0.01     2.85     0.39P    1.52R    0.05  
Swansea          23   32   +3      66.60     7.68     7.56     0.01     0.15    18.54     4.18P    0.10R    0.00  
Ipswich          23   31   +7      66.03     7.43    12.02     0.01     0.14    16.34     4.25P    0.12R    0.00  
Plymouth         23   30   -1      60.23     7.53    -2.84     0.00     0.02     4.24     0.92P    1.18R    0.03  
Coventry         23   28   -4      56.47     7.48    -8.39     0.00     0.00     1.53     0.28P    3.35R    0.19  
Bristol_City     23   28   -4      57.63     7.53    -7.00     0.00     0.00     2.12     0.41P    2.60R    0.13  
Blackpool        23   28   -7      55.21     7.37   -13.05     0.00     0.00     0.90     0.12P    4.96R    0.37  
Watford          23   26   -3      56.61     7.60    -6.50     0.00     0.00     1.63     0.35P    3.89R    0.27  
Derby            23   26   -7      54.39     7.62   -12.38     0.00     0.00     0.97     0.20P    6.64R    0.58  
Barnsley         23   25   -7      51.22     7.33   -15.26     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.04P   12.90R    1.09  
Norwich          23   23   -8      51.57     7.40   -13.84     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P   12.52R    1.50  
Southampton      23   22  -14      45.47     7.20   -26.88     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    39.59R    7.66  
Nottm_Forest     23   18  -13      41.36     7.02   -25.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.26R   18.20  
Charlton         23   18  -14      41.53     7.06   -29.13     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.00R   18.09  
Doncaster        23   18  -16      35.80     6.21   -33.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    88.05R   51.83  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Friday 19 December 2008, Hartlepool vs Southend; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        20   44  +19      95.06     8.09    43.03    39.33    67.58    97.56    76.70P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         20   42   +8      85.50     8.52    20.15     7.31    20.43    80.41    32.25P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          19   40  +21      94.56     8.49    50.65    39.38    66.11    96.83    75.72P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       20   37  +11      81.34     8.67    25.41     3.21    10.81    66.02    22.90P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           20   36  +12      84.03     8.40    32.38     5.47    17.00    77.88    33.22P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     19   34  +14      80.44     8.85    29.54     3.45    10.44    63.15    24.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport        20   34  +11      78.40     8.65    24.47     1.49     5.78    53.60    19.46P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds            20   32   +8      70.73     8.68    12.50     0.22     0.98    20.84     5.53P    0.07R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   30   +2      68.65     8.64     6.22     0.08     0.44    14.14     3.41P    0.21R    0.00  
Hartlepool       21   29   +2      65.11     8.42     4.14     0.02     0.11     7.15     1.50P    0.63R    0.01  
Huddersfield     20   29   -3      64.10     8.54    -4.79     0.01     0.09     5.54     1.06P    1.04R    0.01  
Walsall          20   27   -1      62.99     8.60    -1.22     0.01     0.06     4.72     0.92P    1.29R    0.01  
Southend         21   27   -7      56.18     8.04   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.55     0.10P    6.49R    0.08  
Bristol_Rovers   20   25   +5      62.36     8.63     6.67     0.00     0.07     4.45     1.06P    1.53R    0.01  
Northampton      20   25   +1      62.82     8.74     4.00     0.01     0.07     4.70     1.12P    1.57R    0.03  
Colchester       20   24   -3      58.88     8.49    -5.80     0.00     0.02     1.70     0.32P    3.96R    0.07  
Carlisle         20   21   -9      49.70     8.37   -21.87     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   24.26R    1.35  
Leyton_Orient    20   21   -9      47.83     7.97   -21.35     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   31.25R    1.89  
Swindon          20   20   -6      54.01     8.44    -9.99     0.00     0.00     0.44     0.09P   11.37R    0.43  
Brighton         20   20   -7      50.60     8.46   -15.87     0.00     0.00     0.13     0.02P   20.55R    1.07  
Yeovil           20   19  -12      45.03     8.00   -26.06     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   45.47R    4.04  
Cheltenham       20   18  -20      39.90     7.51   -46.54     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.91R   13.98  
Hereford         20   16  -16      36.79     7.30   -37.48     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.60R   23.09  
Crewe            20   12  -21      32.17     7.26   -51.58     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.80R   53.94  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 December 2008, Barnet vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              20   41  +17      90.66     7.97    37.51    47.32    79.56    97.75    85.21P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 20   35  +12      79.58     8.39    26.86     7.30    30.60    76.49    41.93P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           20   34  +19      81.74     8.14    38.18    11.60    41.46    84.77    55.41P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            19   34  +10      80.58     8.55    24.46     8.47    33.78    79.34    46.08P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             20   34   +9      77.26     8.53    21.94     4.32    21.52    67.04    30.51P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           19   32  +13      80.45     8.76    31.90     9.54    35.70    78.96    47.50P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             19   32  +11      76.16     8.90    22.32     4.11    19.28    61.63    29.32P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               19   32   +4      68.51     8.69     3.94     0.57     4.34    27.04     8.75P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           20   32   +1      65.36     8.43    -2.54     0.18     1.71    16.09     4.12P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot            19   30   -4      65.73     8.75    -6.88     0.20     2.05    17.38     4.14P    0.02R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            19   28  +15      78.51     8.87    37.81     6.31    28.73    73.14    41.61P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         20   26   +2      62.57     8.61     3.77     0.07     0.83    10.36     3.09P    0.02R    0.00  
Macclesfield         20   24  -13      50.78     8.08   -29.87     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.07P    1.00R    0.13  
Chesterfield         20   23   +1      60.10     8.53     3.03     0.01     0.36     6.36     1.60P    0.06R    0.01  
Port_Vale            20   23  -12      48.46     8.10   -28.76     0.00     0.01     0.28     0.03P    1.87R    0.32  
Notts_County         20   21   -7      53.04     8.31   -12.89     0.00     0.02     0.98     0.18P    0.55R    0.08  
Morecambe            20   21   -8      50.06     8.26   -18.29     0.00     0.01     0.42     0.07P    1.43R    0.24  
Accrington_Stanley   19   19   -7      51.46     8.66   -13.93     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.16P    1.27R    0.25  
Chester              20   19  -13      46.07     8.11   -28.34     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.10R    0.90  
Barnet               20   15  -20      36.95     7.61   -46.04     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.79R    9.11  
Grimsby              20   13  -20      33.63     7.33   -45.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.47R   16.64  
Rotherham            19   10   +1      50.47     8.99     6.54     0.00     0.01     0.62     0.21P    1.99R    0.50  
Bournemouth          20    4   -7      33.60     8.23   -16.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    41.69R   18.07  
Luton                20   -6   -4      26.34     8.52    -9.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.74R   53.75  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 December 2008, Barrow vs Altrincham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        23   49  +16      87.14     7.67    26.33    24.65    83.21    36.78P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               21   44  +16      87.75     8.38    30.58    30.45    83.34    44.42P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        22   42  +13      82.37     8.07    24.82    11.54    64.76    24.08P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              22   39  +11      79.92     8.11    23.34     6.79    53.56    18.09P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         22   38  +15      79.41     8.06    28.79     6.46    52.49    19.03P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        23   38   +5      74.36     7.59    12.42     1.17    24.36     6.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham              20   36  +12      83.23     8.47    31.33    15.20    69.05    28.89P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    23   34  +10      73.69     7.60    22.27     0.84    23.99     7.92P    0.00R    0.00  
Kettering            20   33   +7      76.07     8.45    18.27     2.83    35.39    11.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Weymouth             24   32   -2      60.15     7.33    -5.75     0.01     0.69     0.12P    0.80R    0.02  
Stevenage            23   32   -3      60.10     7.49    -8.89     0.01     0.91     0.15P    0.84R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United     23   30   +3      64.82     7.67     8.15     0.04     3.25     0.90P    0.27R    0.00  
Oxford_Utd           22   29   -3      62.99     8.06    -1.40     0.02     2.42     0.48P    0.65R    0.01  
Altrincham           22   29  -10      55.45     7.67   -19.93     0.00     0.21     0.02P    5.07R    0.29  
Eastbourne_Borough   22   27   -8      56.26     7.89   -15.33     0.00     0.30     0.03P    4.27R    0.27  
York                 23   26   -2      61.01     7.93     3.47     0.01     1.12     0.23P    1.00R    0.05  
Barrow               21   26   -5      55.80     8.06   -13.63     0.00     0.39     0.08P    5.15R    0.35  
Mansfield            22   25   -3      57.62     7.93    -3.43     0.00     0.47     0.10P    2.66R    0.21  
Salisbury            22   25   -6      50.19     7.66   -17.99     0.00     0.04     0.01P   15.61R    1.27  
Forest_Green         21   22  -10      50.53     7.99   -20.39     0.00     0.06     0.01P   16.16R    1.70  
Woking               22   20   -8      45.03     7.57   -18.19     0.00     0.00     0.00    36.18R    6.10  
Grays_Athletic       21   19  -11      42.00     7.58   -26.63     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.37R   11.07  
Lewes                22   17  -24      33.81     6.57   -51.46     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.08R   59.37  
Northwich            22   15  -13      39.84     7.53   -26.75     0.00     0.00     0.00    64.87R   19.26