Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 18 December 2008 at 22:44:13 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 December 2008, Chelsea vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       17   38  +15      78.66     7.10    32.96    13.70    51.71    82.89    94.36    99.50     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         17   37  +29      87.14     5.59    64.31    74.97    93.68    99.03    99.83   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         16   32  +17      77.33     7.07    39.94    10.30    44.67    80.47    93.47    99.25     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     17   31   +9      67.05     7.46    21.04     0.69     6.00    20.42    53.86    87.04     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         17   30   +9      64.83     7.36    19.04     0.33     3.55    14.02    39.34    81.52     0.01R    0.00  
Hull            17   27   -1      55.71     7.53    -1.98     0.02     0.23     1.44     7.28    34.46     0.54R    0.00  
Everton         17   25   -2      51.25     7.34    -6.96     0.00     0.03     0.33     2.10    15.78     2.08R    0.06  
Portsmouth      17   23   -7      46.06     7.19   -16.57     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.54     4.87     8.81R    0.32  
Wigan           17   22   +1      50.08     7.40     0.05     0.00     0.03     0.26     1.62    13.35     2.76R    0.09  
Fulham          16   21   +1      48.40     7.41    -1.01     0.00     0.02     0.16     1.07     9.13     4.19R    0.14  
Bolton          17   20   -3      47.25     7.46    -5.60     0.00     0.01     0.09     0.71     7.39     6.29R    0.29  
Middlesbrough   17   20   -7      42.09     6.91   -17.05     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.09     1.50    19.61R    1.21  
Stoke           17   20  -10      43.01     7.23   -19.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.12     2.06    18.32R    1.41  
Newcastle       17   19   -2      45.37     7.34    -6.08     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.35     4.45     9.53R    0.57  
Tottenham       17   19   -2      47.76     7.43    -1.90     0.00     0.01     0.07     0.76     8.15     5.56R    0.33  
West_Ham        17   19   -7      42.42     7.21   -15.67     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.15     2.02    19.23R    1.32  
Man_City        17   18   +5      53.72     7.32    17.04     0.00     0.06     0.68     4.28    28.27     1.09R    0.07  
Sunderland      17   18   -8      40.40     7.23   -18.30     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.07     1.21    28.45R    2.71  
Blackburn       17   13  -17      31.01     6.73   -37.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    79.39R   26.24  
West_Brom       17   12  -20      26.04     6.05   -45.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.15R   65.24  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 15 December 2008, Charlton vs Derby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    23   53  +23      98.25     7.12    46.64    62.39    89.80    99.92    92.51P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       23   47  +12      86.22     7.63    23.38     6.84    27.02    94.18    44.84P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          23   46  +27      93.20     7.02    52.85    29.66    74.02    99.56    83.77P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          23   40   +6      76.65     7.70    13.75     0.48     3.43    64.36    15.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37   +8      74.34     7.63    16.40     0.24     1.93    54.46    14.99P    0.00     0.00  
Preston          23   37   +3      70.09     7.50     4.84     0.05     0.55    30.81     6.43P    0.01R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        23   36  +10      73.94     7.53    19.43     0.19     1.70    53.12    16.36P    0.01R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   36   +9      72.07     7.78    15.78     0.14     1.23    43.02    12.03P    0.01R    0.00  
QPR              23   33   -2      63.52     7.56    -2.59     0.01     0.04     9.25     2.02P    0.28R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed        23   33   -8      58.72     7.35   -16.93     0.00     0.00     2.60     0.35P    1.77R    0.05  
Swansea          23   32   +3      66.76     7.67     7.77     0.01     0.14    19.16     4.33P    0.11R    0.00  
Ipswich          23   31   +7      66.13     7.47    12.15     0.01     0.12    17.26     4.42P    0.08R    0.00  
Plymouth         23   30   -1      60.19     7.53    -2.87     0.00     0.01     4.26     0.87P    1.13R    0.06  
Coventry         23   28   -4      56.46     7.47    -8.46     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.28P    3.36R    0.19  
Bristol_City     23   28   -4      57.91     7.53    -6.57     0.00     0.00     2.33     0.48P    2.37R    0.12  
Blackpool        23   28   -7      55.52     7.41   -12.62     0.00     0.00     1.01     0.20P    4.72R    0.33  
Watford          23   26   -3      56.70     7.59    -6.39     0.00     0.00     1.64     0.31P    3.74R    0.27  
Derby            23   26   -7      54.40     7.54   -12.40     0.00     0.00     0.84     0.14P    6.78R    0.63  
Barnsley         23   25   -7      51.19     7.34   -15.28     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P   13.15R    1.25  
Norwich          23   23   -8      51.56     7.43   -13.98     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.05P   12.85R    1.52  
Southampton      23   22  -14      45.51     7.07   -26.80     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   39.27R    7.63  
Nottm_Forest     23   18  -13      41.16     6.94   -25.95     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    62.52R   18.49  
Charlton         23   18  -14      41.71     7.17   -28.83     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    59.90R   17.68  
Doncaster        23   18  -16      35.85     6.22   -33.29     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.93R   51.76  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 December 2008, Bristol_Rovers vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        20   44  +19      94.81     8.12    42.54    38.80    66.34    97.42    75.59P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         20   42   +8      85.46     8.58    20.08     7.60    21.02    80.15    32.99P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          19   40  +21      94.20     8.53    50.01    38.64    64.78    96.43    74.16P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       20   37  +11      81.73     8.69    26.14     3.69    11.71    67.67    24.07P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           20   36  +12      84.02     8.37    32.39     5.67    17.23    78.16    33.58P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     19   34  +14      80.40     8.86    29.54     3.72    10.97    62.82    24.84P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport        20   34  +11      78.55     8.57    24.63     1.54     5.98    54.23    19.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds            20   32   +8      70.89     8.63    12.77     0.22     1.11    21.32     5.64P    0.10R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   30   +2      68.69     8.59     6.27     0.08     0.44    13.97     3.32P    0.21R    0.00  
Huddersfield     20   29   -3      64.08     8.63    -4.82     0.01     0.08     5.71     1.10P    1.11R    0.01  
Walsall          20   27   -1      62.52     8.56    -2.09     0.01     0.08     4.30     1.02P    1.58R    0.02  
Southend         20   27   -4      58.81     8.51   -11.37     0.00     0.01     1.61     0.28P    3.99R    0.06  
Hartlepool       20   26   -1      62.08     8.77    -1.35     0.01     0.07     4.09     0.90P    1.97R    0.02  
Bristol_Rovers   20   25   +5      62.46     8.77     6.96     0.02     0.11     4.89     1.19P    1.66R    0.02  
Northampton      20   25   +1      62.66     8.75     3.79     0.00     0.05     4.61     1.04P    1.50R    0.02  
Colchester       20   24   -3      58.95     8.57    -5.69     0.00     0.01     1.94     0.38P    3.98R    0.06  
Carlisle         20   21   -9      49.59     8.34   -22.03     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   25.17R    1.46  
Leyton_Orient    20   21   -9      48.08     8.03   -21.02     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   30.31R    1.65  
Swindon          20   20   -6      53.96     8.39   -10.05     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.05P   11.63R    0.45  
Brighton         20   20   -7      50.73     8.46   -15.57     0.00     0.00     0.15     0.05P   20.55R    1.09  
Yeovil           20   19  -12      45.35     8.06   -25.63     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   44.39R    3.92  
Cheltenham       20   18  -20      39.88     7.56   -46.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.54R   13.98  
Hereford         20   16  -16      36.57     7.26   -37.68     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.84R   24.30  
Crewe            20   12  -21      32.32     7.31   -51.33     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    93.47R   52.94  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 December 2008, Barnet vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              20   41  +17      90.93     7.95    37.90    48.59    80.23    97.76    86.02P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 20   35  +12      79.46     8.32    26.59     6.53    29.72    76.13    41.20P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           20   34  +19      81.54     8.19    37.92    11.06    40.31    83.98    53.95P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            19   34  +10      80.90     8.74    24.91     9.03    35.62    79.75    47.91P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             20   34   +9      77.28     8.50    22.05     4.16    21.08    66.98    30.03P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           19   32  +13      80.49     8.68    31.93     9.35    35.72    79.02    47.58P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             19   32  +11      76.33     8.77    22.59     3.89    19.09    63.01    29.58P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               19   32   +4      68.09     8.65     3.28     0.47     3.86    25.36     7.92P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           20   32   +1      65.37     8.42    -2.51     0.15     1.71    15.82     3.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot            19   30   -4      65.57     8.73    -7.16     0.18     1.87    16.99     3.86P    0.01R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            19   28  +15      78.86     8.72    38.39     6.50    29.49    74.68    42.66P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         20   26   +2      62.61     8.61     3.81     0.07     0.84    10.45     3.02P    0.04R    0.01  
Macclesfield         20   24  -13      51.18     8.10   -29.18     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.08P    0.87R    0.16  
Chesterfield         20   23   +1      60.27     8.47     3.33     0.02     0.39     6.48     1.60P    0.05R    0.00  
Port_Vale            20   23  -12      48.27     8.01   -29.02     0.00     0.00     0.24     0.02P    1.82R    0.27  
Notts_County         20   21   -7      53.01     8.37   -13.02     0.00     0.04     1.02     0.19P    0.66R    0.12  
Morecambe            20   21   -8      50.18     8.11   -18.11     0.00     0.00     0.35     0.07P    1.21R    0.24  
Accrington_Stanley   19   19   -7      51.61     8.55   -13.75     0.00     0.02     0.76     0.15P    1.13R    0.19  
Chester              20   19  -13      45.89     8.18   -28.65     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.03P    4.15R    0.81  
Barnet               20   15  -20      36.85     7.55   -46.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.38R    8.92  
Grimsby              20   13  -20      33.60     7.42   -45.23     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    43.67R   16.88  
Rotherham            19   10   +1      50.04     8.96     6.02     0.00     0.01     0.57     0.17P    2.01R    0.42  
Bournemouth          20    4   -7      33.52     8.11   -16.67     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    42.20R   18.19  
Luton                20   -6   -4      26.28     8.49    -9.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.80R   53.80  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 December 2008, Barrow vs Altrincham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        23   49  +16      87.03     7.72    26.11    24.09    82.76    36.06P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               21   44  +16      87.64     8.28    30.42    30.08    83.09    44.17P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        22   42  +13      82.53     8.09    25.07    11.94    65.41    24.67P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              22   39  +11      80.16     8.20    23.74     7.48    54.84    19.04P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         22   38  +15      79.25     7.91    28.51     5.86    51.46    18.12P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        23   38   +5      74.32     7.56    12.30     1.25    24.43     7.00P    0.00R    0.00  
Wrexham              20   36  +12      83.31     8.45    31.38    15.45    69.13    29.11P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    23   34  +10      73.58     7.62    22.10     0.80    23.62     7.82P    0.00R    0.00  
Kettering            20   33   +7      75.99     8.66    18.12     2.98    35.23    11.75P    0.01R    0.00  
Weymouth             24   32   -2      60.46     7.39    -5.19     0.01     0.89     0.14P    0.75R    0.02  
Stevenage            23   32   -3      59.86     7.52    -9.26     0.00     0.77     0.12P    0.93R    0.04  
Ebbsfleet_United     23   30   +3      64.66     7.72     7.92     0.03     3.14     0.87P    0.26R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           22   29   -3      63.20     8.02    -1.03     0.03     2.44     0.50P    0.62R    0.02  
Altrincham           22   29  -10      55.70     7.69   -19.62     0.00     0.23     0.04P    4.69R    0.27  
Eastbourne_Borough   22   27   -8      56.35     7.88   -15.13     0.00     0.33     0.06P    4.11R    0.29  
York                 23   26   -2      61.07     8.02     3.56     0.00     1.16     0.31P    1.03R    0.05  
Barrow               21   26   -5      55.54     8.10   -14.07     0.01     0.37     0.08P    5.69R    0.39  
Mansfield            22   25   -3      57.83     7.97    -3.04     0.00     0.58     0.14P    2.64R    0.19  
Salisbury            22   25   -6      50.20     7.62   -17.97     0.00     0.04     0.00P   15.06R    1.19  
Forest_Green         21   22  -10      50.59     8.04   -20.28     0.00     0.06     0.01P   16.09R    1.83  
Woking               22   20   -8      44.98     7.55   -18.05     0.00     0.01     0.00    35.99R    5.80  
Grays_Athletic       21   19  -11      41.97     7.63   -26.76     0.00     0.00     0.00    55.18R   11.15  
Lewes                22   17  -24      33.75     6.66   -51.65     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.89R   59.04  
Northwich            22   15  -13      39.57     7.44   -27.18     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.06R   19.72