Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 18 December 2008 at 17:45:44 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 14 December 2008, Chelsea vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       17   38  +15      78.75     6.99    33.13    14.58    52.73    83.22    94.74    99.58     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         17   37  +29      86.87     5.64    63.90    74.04    93.12    98.87    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         16   32  +17      77.17     6.95    39.68    10.32    43.98    80.11    93.63    99.26     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     17   31   +9      67.11     7.46    21.18     0.69     6.03    20.93    53.73    87.26     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal         17   30   +9      64.91     7.33    19.21     0.36     3.77    13.86    39.70    81.71     0.00R    0.00  
Hull            17   27   -1      55.76     7.53    -1.82     0.01     0.20     1.38     7.12    34.33     0.50R    0.01  
Everton         17   25   -2      51.25     7.26    -6.92     0.00     0.03     0.25     1.83    15.40     2.03R    0.05  
Portsmouth      17   23   -7      45.99     7.31   -16.63     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.45     5.05     9.11R    0.41  
Wigan           17   22   +1      50.29     7.33     0.34     0.00     0.03     0.23     1.49    13.77     2.47R    0.08  
Fulham          16   21   +1      48.82     7.37    -0.44     0.00     0.01     0.15     1.08     9.95     3.80R    0.11  
Bolton          17   20   -3      47.10     7.48    -5.84     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.68     6.91     6.74R    0.26  
Middlesbrough   17   20   -7      42.00     6.92   -17.14     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.04     1.42    20.00R    1.29  
Stoke           17   20  -10      42.99     7.24   -19.71     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.13     1.96    18.49R    1.44  
Newcastle       17   19   -2      45.07     7.32    -6.50     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.35     4.09    10.16R    0.55  
Tottenham       17   19   -2      47.68     7.53    -2.03     0.00     0.01     0.10     0.83     8.16     5.74R    0.34  
West_Ham        17   19   -7      42.38     7.29   -15.69     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.17     1.92    19.45R    1.50  
Man_City        17   18   +5      53.70     7.37    17.00     0.00     0.07     0.67     4.14    28.01     1.06R    0.07  
Sunderland      17   18   -8      40.65     7.21   -17.95     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.06     1.16    26.89R    2.36  
Blackburn       17   13  -17      31.04     6.73   -38.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04    79.28R   25.95  
West_Brom       17   12  -20      25.97     6.04   -45.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    94.27R   65.57  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 15 December 2008, Charlton vs Derby; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    23   53  +23      98.31     7.15    46.69    62.71    89.59    99.92    92.47P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       23   47  +12      86.26     7.57    23.40     7.18    27.39    94.54    45.44P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          23   46  +27      93.14     7.03    52.78    28.99    73.96    99.51    83.53P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          23   40   +6      76.64     7.71    13.70     0.49     3.35    64.97    15.56P    0.00     0.00  
Cardiff          23   37   +8      74.26     7.59    16.32     0.25     1.95    54.01    14.73P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          23   37   +3      70.23     7.46     5.02     0.05     0.55    31.29     6.47P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        23   36  +10      74.02     7.54    19.59     0.19     1.77    53.59    16.84P    0.00     0.00  
Crystal_Palace   23   36   +9      72.09     7.72    15.86     0.13     1.09    42.99    11.67P    0.00R    0.00  
QPR              23   33   -2      63.64     7.44    -2.48     0.00     0.05     9.30     1.85P    0.25R    0.00  
Sheff_Wed        23   33   -8      58.80     7.26   -16.84     0.00     0.01     2.62     0.38P    1.69R    0.06  
Swansea          23   32   +3      66.51     7.67     7.40     0.01     0.13    18.16     4.13P    0.10R    0.00  
Ipswich          23   31   +7      66.12     7.44    12.15     0.00     0.14    16.86     4.44P    0.11R    0.00  
Plymouth         23   30   -1      60.26     7.51    -2.78     0.00     0.01     4.28     0.93P    1.07R    0.04  
Coventry         23   28   -4      56.65     7.50    -8.18     0.00     0.00     1.68     0.37P    3.14R    0.21  
Bristol_City     23   28   -4      57.59     7.57    -7.00     0.00     0.00     2.16     0.46P    2.70R    0.17  
Blackpool        23   28   -7      55.58     7.44   -12.52     0.00     0.00     1.02     0.19P    4.69R    0.33  
Watford          23   26   -3      56.70     7.53    -6.36     0.00     0.00     1.61     0.30P    3.61R    0.28  
Derby            23   26   -7      54.21     7.62   -12.73     0.00     0.00     0.91     0.13P    7.05R    0.64  
Barnsley         23   25   -7      51.30     7.38   -15.14     0.00     0.00     0.29     0.06P   12.92R    1.19  
Norwich          23   23   -8      51.48     7.35   -14.03     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.06P   12.44R    1.45  
Southampton      23   22  -14      45.57     7.11   -26.65     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   38.67R    7.49  
Nottm_Forest     23   18  -13      41.17     6.94   -25.86     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    62.60R   19.00  
Charlton         23   18  -14      41.54     7.07   -29.06     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.32R   18.15  
Doncaster        23   18  -16      35.90     6.25   -33.27     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.60R   50.98  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 December 2008, Bristol_Rovers vs Tranmere; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        20   44  +19      94.81     8.12    42.60    39.11    66.46    97.37    75.93P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         20   42   +8      85.61     8.58    20.34     7.92    21.63    80.75    33.31P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          19   40  +21      94.07     8.64    49.83    37.94    64.21    96.16    74.07P    0.00     0.00  
Scunthorpe       20   37  +11      81.54     8.65    25.75     3.41    11.29    67.16    23.32P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham           20   36  +12      83.89     8.43    32.20     5.60    17.09    77.32    32.77P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough     19   34  +14      80.68     8.91    29.91     4.01    11.51    64.11    25.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Stockport        20   34  +11      78.33     8.60    24.34     1.58     5.83    53.48    19.79P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds            20   32   +8      70.93     8.66    12.81     0.29     1.12    21.52     5.71P    0.07R    0.00  
Tranmere         20   30   +2      68.46     8.57     5.91     0.06     0.36    13.51     3.18P    0.22R    0.00  
Huddersfield     20   29   -3      64.16     8.67    -4.74     0.03     0.13     6.08     1.19P    1.03R    0.01  
Walsall          20   27   -1      62.76     8.57    -1.64     0.01     0.07     4.57     0.94P    1.41R    0.02  
Southend         20   27   -4      58.93     8.52   -11.23     0.01     0.04     1.63     0.30P    3.91R    0.07  
Hartlepool       20   26   -1      62.19     8.74    -1.15     0.01     0.07     4.27     0.94P    1.82R    0.02  
Bristol_Rovers   20   25   +5      62.36     8.71     6.69     0.02     0.09     4.63     1.16P    1.51R    0.02  
Northampton      20   25   +1      62.52     8.84     3.45     0.01     0.07     4.74     1.15P    1.53R    0.02  
Colchester       20   24   -3      58.99     8.57    -5.61     0.00     0.02     1.95     0.36P    4.08R    0.07  
Carlisle         20   21   -9      49.55     8.40   -22.08     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P   25.20R    1.45  
Leyton_Orient    20   21   -9      47.74     8.12   -21.45     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.01P   32.37R    2.00  
Swindon          20   20   -6      54.14     8.44    -9.76     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.10P   11.32R    0.38  
Brighton         20   20   -7      50.64     8.43   -15.75     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   20.84R    1.10  
Yeovil           20   19  -12      45.17     8.09   -25.87     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   45.10R    4.36  
Cheltenham       20   18  -20      39.97     7.52   -46.25     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.81R   14.32  
Hereford         20   16  -16      36.80     7.33   -37.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    83.85R   23.69  
Crewe            20   12  -21      32.50     7.41   -50.99     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.92R   52.46  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 13 December 2008, Barnet vs Gillingham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              20   41  +17      91.19     7.90    38.29    49.97    81.70    98.13    86.93P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 20   35  +12      79.30     8.30    26.37     6.32    29.38    76.11    40.80P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           20   34  +19      81.53     8.11    37.91    10.92    40.52    84.43    54.45P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            19   34  +10      80.44     8.69    24.21     8.18    33.91    78.65    46.40P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             20   34   +9      77.14     8.55    21.75     4.09    20.88    66.48    30.08P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           19   32  +13      80.66     8.67    32.25     9.53    36.40    79.90    48.52P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             19   32  +11      76.00     8.78    22.07     3.53    18.47    61.83    28.60P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               19   32   +4      68.44     8.63     3.82     0.54     4.22    27.00     8.58P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           20   32   +1      65.32     8.39    -2.60     0.20     1.73    15.97     4.08P    0.01R    0.00  
Aldershot            19   30   -4      65.57     8.64    -7.19     0.19     1.85    16.75     3.85P    0.01R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            19   28  +15      78.62     8.82    37.92     6.45    29.63    73.87    42.25P    0.00     0.00  
Lincoln_City         20   26   +2      62.87     8.50     4.20     0.06     0.85    10.92     3.18P    0.02R    0.01  
Macclesfield         20   24  -13      50.72     8.04   -29.98     0.00     0.02     0.47     0.08P    1.00R    0.15  
Chesterfield         20   23   +1      60.18     8.38     3.24     0.01     0.37     6.31     1.44P    0.06R    0.01  
Port_Vale            20   23  -12      48.43     8.06   -28.75     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.05P    1.87R    0.31  
Notts_County         20   21   -7      53.04     8.25   -12.98     0.00     0.02     0.89     0.18P    0.57R    0.09  
Morecambe            20   21   -8      50.10     8.29   -18.29     0.00     0.01     0.49     0.11P    1.40R    0.26  
Accrington_Stanley   19   19   -7      51.68     8.61   -13.59     0.00     0.03     0.82     0.20P    1.17R    0.21  
Chester              20   19  -13      46.01     8.17   -28.42     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.01P    4.20R    0.96  
Barnet               20   15  -20      37.07     7.55   -45.89     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    26.78R    8.70  
Grimsby              20   13  -20      33.55     7.38   -45.18     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.61R   16.92  
Rotherham            19   10   +1      50.01     9.01     5.97     0.00     0.00     0.61     0.20P    2.16R    0.51  
Bournemouth          20    4   -7      33.93     8.24   -16.02     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    40.54R   17.52  
Luton                20   -6   -4      26.26     8.48    -9.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    75.60R   54.37  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 9 December 2008, Barrow vs Altrincham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        23   49  +16      87.11     7.67    26.29    24.46    83.24    36.15P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               21   44  +16      87.94     8.30    30.83    30.84    83.97    45.24P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        22   42  +13      82.18     8.15    24.50    11.14    63.65    23.53P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              22   39  +11      80.07     8.21    23.61     7.21    54.27    18.59P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         22   38  +15      79.52     7.92    28.97     6.17    52.88    18.91P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        23   38   +5      74.15     7.62    12.11     1.09    23.75     6.68P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              20   36  +12      83.18     8.49    31.23    14.91    68.79    28.60P    0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    23   34  +10      73.55     7.67    22.10     0.97    23.62     8.09P    0.00R    0.00  
Kettering            20   33   +7      76.17     8.56    18.34     3.10    35.70    11.98P    0.00R    0.00  
Weymouth             24   32   -2      60.27     7.38    -5.55     0.01     0.76     0.14P    0.82R    0.02  
Stevenage            23   32   -3      60.17     7.51    -8.76     0.01     0.87     0.14P    0.85R    0.02  
Ebbsfleet_United     23   30   +3      64.81     7.72     8.16     0.03     3.49     0.89P    0.28R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           22   29   -3      63.09     8.04    -1.26     0.04     2.36     0.51P    0.68R    0.03  
Altrincham           22   29  -10      55.59     7.72   -19.82     0.00     0.24     0.04P    4.99R    0.27  
Eastbourne_Borough   22   27   -8      56.21     7.89   -15.36     0.00     0.29     0.05P    4.36R    0.30  
York                 23   26   -2      60.85     8.02     3.24     0.00     1.17     0.26P    1.10R    0.06  
Barrow               21   26   -5      55.37     8.09   -14.39     0.00     0.33     0.07P    6.10R    0.43  
Mansfield            22   25   -3      57.63     7.86    -3.39     0.01     0.51     0.11P    2.54R    0.14  
Salisbury            22   25   -6      50.33     7.59   -17.70     0.00     0.03     0.01P   14.80R    1.15  
Forest_Green         21   22  -10      50.56     8.01   -20.31     0.00     0.06     0.02P   16.31R    1.78  
Woking               22   20   -8      45.32     7.54   -17.69     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.92R    5.52  
Grays_Athletic       21   19  -11      42.12     7.60   -26.58     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.84R   10.89  
Lewes                22   17  -24      33.80     6.64   -51.47     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.94R   59.40  
Northwich            22   15  -13      39.57     7.42   -27.10     0.00     0.00     0.00    66.47R   19.99