Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 4 December 2008 at 22:34:43 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 December 2008, Liverpool vs West_Ham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       15   34  +13      80.31     7.59    34.87    15.11    52.50    86.35    95.51    99.42     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         15   33  +27      88.68     5.91    67.93    71.74    92.67    99.19    99.86   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         14   28  +16      79.33     7.54    45.59    12.65    48.99    86.11    95.20    99.24     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         15   26   +8      64.29     8.12    19.24     0.29     3.00    12.58    40.19    75.72     0.05R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     15   25   +6      63.52     8.29    17.07     0.19     2.27    10.49    36.53    72.27     0.05R    0.00  
Hull            15   23   -2      53.37     8.08    -4.86     0.01     0.15     1.01     5.44    24.14     1.55R    0.10  
Everton         15   22   -2      49.50     8.04   -10.27     0.00     0.03     0.33     2.37    12.64     4.29R    0.32  
Portsmouth      15   22   -4      51.38     8.17    -7.81     0.00     0.04     0.50     3.65    17.81     2.59R    0.24  
Bolton          15   20   +1      49.84     8.04    -1.69     0.00     0.02     0.33     2.45    13.92     3.50R    0.31  
Fulham          14   19   +1      49.06     8.34    -1.58     0.00     0.04     0.35     2.23    12.67     4.66R    0.47  
Wigan           15   19   -1      48.25     8.08    -5.00     0.00     0.03     0.23     1.73    10.28     5.67R    0.60  
Middlesbrough   15   19   -6      42.86     7.73   -18.29     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.35     2.91    17.41R    2.38  
West_Ham        15   18   -5      43.32     7.83   -15.73     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.35     3.24    16.10R    2.14  
Stoke           15   18  -10      42.73     7.85   -21.30     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.29     2.68    19.57R    2.94  
Man_City        15   17   +6      57.34     8.04    21.60     0.01     0.25     2.38    13.07    46.09     0.53R    0.04  
Tottenham       15   15   -4      43.60     7.96    -8.84     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.43     3.49    15.10R    2.48  
Newcastle       15   15   -5      42.24     8.06   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.29     2.75    19.75R    3.09  
Sunderland      15   15  -11      36.56     7.58   -27.69     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.47    47.42R   13.48  
Blackburn       15   13  -12      34.19     7.54   -31.98     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.24    59.62R   20.04  
West_Brom       15   11  -16      28.98     7.21   -39.32     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02    82.16R   51.36  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 1 December 2008, Reading vs Coventry; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    20   47  +19      98.79     7.97    47.65    65.17    89.68    99.81    92.15P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       20   41  +11      85.49     8.64    24.23     8.36    29.84    90.81    45.78P    0.00     0.00  
Reading          20   37  +23      91.66     7.89    56.74    24.85    67.78    98.57    78.72P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          20   33   +4      73.48     8.50    11.27     0.36     2.56    49.86    12.59P    0.03R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        20   32  +10      75.81     8.40    22.01     0.70     4.95    62.45    22.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Preston          20   31   +3      68.87     8.30     5.53     0.11     0.85    28.60     6.14P    0.12R    0.01  
Cardiff          20   30   +5      68.71     8.55     9.22     0.09     0.84    29.77     7.61P    0.16R    0.00  
Swansea          20   29   +3      69.31     8.66    10.13     0.11     1.07    32.16     7.86P    0.15R    0.00  
Plymouth         20   29   +1      65.84     8.48     2.63     0.04     0.41    18.25     4.19P    0.43R    0.02  
QPR              20   29   -2      62.45     8.54    -4.38     0.01     0.12     9.79     2.07P    1.24R    0.04  
Ipswich          20   28   +8      69.99     8.40    17.34     0.14     1.21    35.63    10.66P    0.08R    0.01  
Sheff_Wed        20   28   -9      58.29     8.33   -17.63     0.01     0.03     3.83     0.53P    4.26R    0.24  
Crystal_Palace   20   27   +4      66.96     8.63    10.47     0.04     0.54    23.29     6.26P    0.31R    0.01  
Bristol_City     20   26   -2      60.32     8.46    -4.37     0.01     0.06     6.67     1.33P    2.12R    0.10  
Derby            20   25   -3      57.58     8.51    -8.57     0.00     0.03     3.67     0.77P    4.91R    0.37  
Barnsley         20   24   -4      51.40     8.21   -18.07     0.00     0.01     0.77     0.14P   17.03R    1.49  
Coventry         20   24   -4      56.52     8.41    -8.24     0.00     0.02     2.77     0.55P    5.88R    0.43  
Blackpool        20   24   -8      53.00     8.22   -19.04     0.00     0.01     0.96     0.17P   13.52R    1.42  
Southampton      20   21  -10      48.19     8.01   -22.99     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   29.49R    4.17  
Watford          20   20   -4      54.21     8.47    -8.58     0.00     0.00     1.57     0.25P   10.18R    0.99  
Norwich          20   20   -7      49.70     8.33   -19.62     0.00     0.00     0.46     0.09P   23.93R    3.44  
Charlton         20   17  -11      46.46     8.32   -22.87     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.03P   37.70R    7.10  
Nottm_Forest     20   16  -12      42.54     7.97   -26.03     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   56.65R   14.52  
Doncaster        20   15  -15      33.72     6.76   -36.81     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.78R   65.63  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 29 November 2008, Northampton vs Colchester; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester        18   38  +15      91.72     8.83    39.24    23.26    52.03    93.13    64.48P    0.00     0.00  
MK_Dons          17   37  +21      97.34     9.07    56.05    54.82    76.36    97.44    83.10P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         18   36   +6      81.87     9.35    17.79     4.03    13.04    65.42    23.77P    0.01R    0.00  
Oldham           18   34  +12      86.39     8.91    35.83     9.42    27.33    83.04    41.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe       18   33   +9      78.10     9.27    19.86     2.01     7.13    50.99    16.00P    0.01R    0.00  
Leeds            18   32  +10      75.54     9.29    18.26     1.30     4.71    40.14    12.60P    0.03R    0.00  
Stockport        18   31  +11      79.93     9.10    26.88     2.50     9.49    59.70    25.62P    0.01R    0.00  
Peterborough     17   30  +12      77.32     9.49    24.67     2.31     7.68    48.28    18.28P    0.01R    0.00  
Tranmere         18   27   +3      68.97     9.34     8.24     0.14     0.84    16.76     4.26P    0.31R    0.00  
Walsall          18   27   +1      66.72     9.12     2.70     0.09     0.49    11.56     2.64P    0.54R    0.00  
Southend         18   27   +0      63.42     9.14    -4.31     0.03     0.23     5.98     1.20P    1.38R    0.00  
Hartlepool       18   24   -1      65.55     9.34     3.18     0.06     0.30     9.80     2.18P    1.01R    0.01  
Northampton      18   23   +1      62.80     9.40     3.03     0.02     0.16     5.94     1.45P    1.87R    0.01  
Huddersfield     18   23   -5      59.81     9.31    -8.65     0.01     0.05     2.95     0.54P    4.03R    0.05  
Bristol_Rovers   18   22   +4      60.18     9.14     2.38     0.01     0.10     3.45     0.83P    3.01R    0.03  
Colchester       18   21   -3      59.36     9.04    -4.49     0.00     0.02     2.59     0.48P    4.02R    0.05  
Carlisle         18   20   -8      49.62     8.87   -24.46     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.02P   24.57R    0.78  
Leyton_Orient    18   20   -8      50.14     8.86   -19.41     0.00     0.00     0.26     0.06P   22.03R    0.58  
Swindon          18   19   -5      58.84     9.18    -3.52     0.00     0.04     2.19     0.48P    5.04R    0.08  
Brighton         18   19   -5      50.00     8.88   -17.52     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.02P   22.26R    0.77  
Yeovil           18   18  -10      45.77     8.43   -25.09     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.01P   39.97R    1.80  
Hereford         18   12  -17      31.81     7.59   -44.46     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.75R   34.70  
Cheltenham       18   12  -22      35.34     8.05   -51.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    84.83R   22.04  
Crewe            18    9  -21      31.67     8.02   -54.62     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.32R   39.09  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 2 December 2008, Luton vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Wycombe              18   40  +18      97.52     8.27    45.57    66.76    91.04    99.37    93.90P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             18   33  +10      79.38     9.15    23.91     3.52    24.24    71.55    33.36P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           18   32  +14      83.40     8.86    35.79     7.44    41.09    84.92    53.02P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           18   31  +19      84.17     8.56    43.17     9.56    45.39    88.12    59.04P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             18   31  +11      78.03     9.14    24.86     2.64    19.96    67.17    31.04P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 18   31   +9      79.32     9.04    25.50     3.38    24.01    71.90    35.54P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            18   31   +9      78.77     9.07    23.04     2.73    21.53    69.57    35.11P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               18   29   +3      66.18     8.88     1.90     0.11     1.78    18.03     4.95P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           18   28   +0      63.84     9.14    -4.16     0.09     1.24    12.94     3.13P    0.01R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            18   27  +15      79.47     9.16    39.33     3.61    26.34    73.85    40.00P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot            18   27   -5      61.50     8.96   -11.93     0.02     0.52     7.81     1.54P    0.03R    0.00  
Chesterfield         18   23   +4      67.11     9.22    13.93     0.13     2.43    22.88     6.59P    0.00R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         18   23   -1      59.34     9.01    -3.02     0.01     0.24     5.39     1.26P    0.04R    0.00  
Port_Vale            18   20  -10      48.62     8.73   -26.32     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.07P    1.46R    0.20  
Macclesfield         18   20  -15      44.90     8.31   -40.82     0.00     0.01     0.11     0.02P    3.11R    0.52  
Accrington_Stanley   18   19   -3      55.70     9.05    -4.96     0.00     0.07     2.60     0.65P    0.24R    0.02  
Notts_County         18   18   -6      55.10     9.16    -8.44     0.00     0.09     2.08     0.44P    0.32R    0.03  
Morecambe            18   18   -8      48.37     8.95   -21.43     0.00     0.01     0.40     0.08P    1.78R    0.31  
Chester              18   16  -14      44.90     8.83   -31.72     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P    4.20R    0.71  
Barnet               18   14  -18      38.32     8.31   -44.31     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00    16.09R    4.38  
Rotherham            18   10   +2      50.59     9.33     5.66     0.00     0.01     0.78     0.25P    1.23R    0.21  
Grimsby              18   10  -20      30.44     7.62   -50.79     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.84R   18.59  
Bournemouth          18    0   -8      30.98     8.87   -20.50     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    44.30R   19.02  
Luton                18  -10   -6      23.10     8.96   -14.26     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    77.35R   56.02  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Thursday 4 December 2008, Mansfield vs Oxford_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        21   43  +13      83.00     8.28    21.87    12.15    64.14    22.77P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               19   40  +15      88.68     8.76    33.27    35.09    83.57    47.73P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              20   38  +13      84.87     8.63    30.37    19.07    72.67    33.23P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        21   37   +7      76.58     8.12    15.11     2.78    34.20    10.56P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster        20   36  +10      80.17     8.75    23.50     8.17    52.61    18.84P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town         21   35  +11      76.97     8.17    23.42     3.30    38.15    11.82P    0.00     0.00  
Wrexham              19   33  +11      81.76     8.77    30.55    11.79    60.58    23.99P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            19   33   +8      77.69     8.89    19.61     4.94    41.02    14.57P    0.00R    0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds    21   32  +10      76.23     8.21    25.14     2.45    34.91    12.42P    0.00R    0.00  
Weymouth             22   31   -1      62.01     7.99    -4.53     0.03     1.85     0.37P    0.47R    0.01  
Oxford_Utd           21   28   -3      63.17     8.27    -1.56     0.04     2.45     0.49P    0.51R    0.02  
Stevenage            21   28   -5      59.06     8.03   -10.99     0.01     0.86     0.13P    1.40R    0.06  
Altrincham           20   28   -6      58.19     8.35   -14.14     0.01     0.76     0.12P    2.37R    0.13  
Ebbsfleet_United     21   27   +3      66.90     8.39    11.75     0.09     6.57     1.67P    0.20R    0.01  
Mansfield            21   25   -1      59.12     8.25    -1.27     0.01     1.01     0.22P    1.51R    0.09  
York                 21   25   -1      64.42     8.49     7.15     0.06     3.76     0.88P    0.42R    0.01  
Salisbury            20   25   -4      54.38     8.21   -13.25     0.01     0.30     0.07P    5.25R    0.32  
Barrow               19   24   -5      55.76     8.63   -14.97     0.01     0.51     0.11P    4.78R    0.28  
Eastbourne_Borough   20   21  -13      49.33     8.28   -25.98     0.00     0.04     0.00P   17.10R    2.00  
Woking               20   19   -7      45.24     8.06   -19.24     0.00     0.01     0.00    30.76R    3.99  
Forest_Green         19   19  -10      48.03     8.42   -24.58     0.00     0.03     0.01P   21.43R    2.68  
Northwich            21   15  -10      41.19     7.80   -23.53     0.00     0.00     0.00    51.01R    9.73  
Grays_Athletic       19   15  -12      37.36     7.88   -34.15     0.00     0.00     0.00    71.74R   21.44  
Lewes                20   14  -23      31.86     7.03   -53.56     0.00     0.00     0.00    91.04R   59.26