Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Tuesday 18 November 2008 at 22:34:01 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 November 2008, Everton vs Middlesbrough; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea         13   32  +28      96.88     5.49    85.77    87.79    98.53    99.93   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       13   32  +13      85.03     8.04    42.71     9.44    66.93    92.50    97.85    99.75     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         12   24  +15      78.56     8.51    46.93     2.67    29.82    77.92    91.55    98.25     0.00R    0.00  
Arsenal         13   23  +10      62.47     8.81    17.82     0.04     1.43     8.20    31.58    68.31     0.13R    0.01  
Aston_Villa     13   23   +6      65.61     9.01    19.55     0.05     2.79    15.97    46.31    78.87     0.06R    0.00  
Hull            13   21   -2      53.50     8.95    -6.52     0.00     0.16     1.32     7.01    28.00     1.95R    0.19  
Everton         13   19   -2      48.11     8.82   -14.59     0.00     0.02     0.26     2.33    12.71     7.04R    1.04  
Middlesbrough   13   18   -4      47.52     8.73   -12.19     0.00     0.02     0.29     1.95    10.97     7.59R    1.15  
Portsmouth      13   18   -5      50.83     9.12    -7.27     0.00     0.07     0.67     4.21    19.55     4.40R    0.67  
Fulham          12   17   +1      46.66     9.02    -7.43     0.00     0.02     0.29     1.90    10.51     9.03R    1.52  
Sunderland      13   15   -7      43.42     8.76   -16.59     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.66     4.89    17.79R    4.22  
Man_City        13   14   +4      55.12     9.05    15.17     0.00     0.16     2.04    10.53    38.09     1.68R    0.27  
Bolton          13   14   -4      40.47     8.42   -15.03     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.25     2.50    25.54R    6.16  
West_Ham        13   14   -6      38.48     8.29   -25.43     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.14     1.39    35.41R   10.65  
Stoke           13   14  -11      42.76     8.97   -21.55     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.54     4.40    21.17R    5.99  
Wigan           13   13   -3      45.70     9.04    -6.48     0.00     0.01     0.20     1.31     8.56    11.97R    2.70  
Newcastle       13   13   -5      39.39     8.37   -20.79     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.16     1.89    30.97R    8.34  
Blackburn       13   13  -10      36.81     8.38   -31.09     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.10     1.07    44.18R   15.17  
Tottenham       13   12   -4      46.54     9.20    -4.61     0.00     0.01     0.21     1.62    10.11    11.02R    2.67  
West_Brom       13   11  -14      31.41     7.94   -38.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.18    70.08R   39.23  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 16 November 2008, Blackpool vs Preston; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    17   40  +15      95.85     8.89    45.19    39.99    78.42    98.64    82.76P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       17   34   +9      80.26     9.90    18.71     4.38    14.56    71.40    28.91P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading          17   33  +22      97.28     8.33    67.27    52.11    85.35    99.27    90.40P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley          17   29   +2      75.70     9.51    12.86     0.84     5.01    54.53    15.91P    0.02R    0.00  
Sheff_Utd        17   28   +9      76.37     9.56    21.63     1.38     7.06    58.84    24.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Cardiff          17   28   +6      69.62     9.68     8.81     0.38     1.95    30.79     9.12P    0.20R    0.00  
Swansea          17   27   +4      72.43     9.56    13.00     0.32     2.51    41.61    11.75P    0.09R    0.00  
Bristol_City     17   25   +2      66.81     9.63     5.17     0.12     0.77    21.36     5.33P    0.58R    0.02  
Plymouth         17   25   +1      68.49     9.42     6.73     0.10     1.02    26.26     6.35P    0.34R    0.01  
QPR              17   25   +0      63.76     9.54    -0.72     0.06     0.39    12.92     2.98P    1.21R    0.02  
Ipswich          17   24   +7      70.24     9.50    17.20     0.23     1.79    34.29    11.08P    0.17R    0.00  
Derby            17   24   +2      63.54     9.73     1.17     0.05     0.48    13.62     3.27P    1.33R    0.03  
Preston          17   24   +0      64.84     9.42     0.88     0.04     0.38    15.46     3.30P    0.91R    0.04  
Sheff_Wed        17   22  -11      54.52     9.32   -22.51     0.00     0.02     1.94     0.29P   10.71R    0.86  
Barnsley         17   21   -3      51.06     9.24   -19.02     0.00     0.01     1.05     0.21P   17.89R    1.43  
Blackpool        17   21   -5      53.26     9.32   -18.77     0.01     0.04     1.55     0.32P   12.90R    1.17  
Crystal_Palace   17   20   +1      62.67     9.48     5.83     0.01     0.21    11.44     2.93P    1.58R    0.11  
Coventry         17   20   -3      53.65     9.38   -12.40     0.00     0.02     1.81     0.40P   11.35R    0.88  
Norwich          17   17   -6      50.46     9.34   -18.73     0.00     0.00     0.78     0.14P   20.46R    2.54  
Charlton         17   16   -7      52.22     9.42   -13.80     0.00     0.01     1.24     0.24P   15.64R    1.71  
Southampton      17   16  -11      42.09     8.55   -35.69     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.00P   54.95R   12.29  
Watford          17   15   -7      51.98     9.28   -14.81     0.00     0.01     1.03     0.23P   15.52R    2.07  
Nottm_Forest     17   12  -12      44.64     8.99   -23.57     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.03P   42.00R    8.90  
Doncaster        17   12  -15      31.32     7.50   -44.42     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.11R   67.92  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 November 2008, Carlisle vs Brighton; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Scunthorpe       16   33  +12      83.87    10.07    28.46    12.36    25.38    71.18    35.70P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        16   32  +13      89.61     9.56    39.88    26.37    47.61    87.57    59.85P    0.00     0.00  
Millwall         16   32   +5      81.76    10.22    19.10     7.32    17.76    63.13    26.69P    0.02R    0.00  
MK_Dons          15   31  +15      90.63    10.34    43.55    32.48    52.30    87.76    62.43P    0.00     0.00  
Leeds            16   29   +8      75.56     9.91    16.90     2.44     6.76    39.34    14.32P    0.06R    0.00  
Oldham           16   28  +10      83.17     9.94    33.82     9.44    22.66    70.35    35.65P    0.02R    0.00  
Peterborough     15   26  +11      78.74    10.42    28.36     5.64    13.98    53.51    25.09P    0.04R    0.00  
Southend         16   26   +1      66.82    10.13    -0.30     0.41     1.33    13.64     3.62P    0.89R    0.01  
Stockport        16   25   +6      73.98    10.08    18.10     1.47     4.82    34.52    13.52P    0.13R    0.00  
Walsall          15   24   +4      69.86    10.72     9.40     1.03     3.22    22.44     7.48P    0.65R    0.01  
Tranmere         16   24   +2      67.31    10.03     4.95     0.30     1.14    14.22     3.95P    0.89R    0.02  
Hartlepool       16   23   +2      68.90    10.20     9.33     0.51     1.80    18.76     5.53P    0.61R    0.01  
Bristol_Rovers   16   20   +4      62.21    10.13     4.75     0.08     0.41     6.79     1.86P    2.59R    0.04  
Huddersfield     16   20   -5      59.62    10.24    -8.82     0.03     0.17     3.88     0.92P    5.54R    0.15  
Brighton         16   19   -2      55.80     9.95    -9.47     0.01     0.07     1.75     0.46P    9.67R    0.28  
Northampton      15   17   -1      60.53    10.53     0.39     0.08     0.33     5.20     1.52P    4.86R    0.15  
Swindon          15   17   -4      58.75    10.55    -6.72     0.03     0.18     3.81     0.95P    7.24R    0.29  
Carlisle         16   17   -8      49.79     9.79   -24.96     0.00     0.00     0.39     0.05P   25.47R    1.94  
Leyton_Orient    16   16   -9      46.82     9.65   -24.17     0.00     0.00     0.17     0.03P   36.04R    3.20  
Colchester       15   15   -4      54.86    10.11   -10.55     0.01     0.05     1.51     0.35P   12.44R    0.69  
Yeovil           16   15  -10      44.20     9.37   -28.03     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P   47.05R    5.29  
Hereford         16   12  -12      35.44     8.51   -37.49     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    81.70R   24.74  
Cheltenham       16   11  -21      36.96     9.04   -53.39     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   76.44R   23.68  
Crewe            16    9  -17      33.04     8.63   -53.09     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    87.63R   39.53  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 15 November 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Bournemouth; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Darlington           16   31  +15      89.41     9.54    45.01    33.67    71.18    94.29    77.77P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              15   31  +10      89.18     9.82    31.72    31.42    68.41    93.85    77.15P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           16   27  +18      84.21     9.41    44.79    15.89    51.60    87.65    63.52P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             16   27   +9      75.70    10.05    21.15     3.72    19.20    60.10    28.59P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            16   27   +8      76.66     9.86    21.04     4.24    20.98    63.34    32.76P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             16   27   +7      74.54    10.12    18.46     2.98    16.29    54.75    24.25P    0.00     0.00  
Gillingham           16   27   +4      69.06    10.09     5.96     0.82     6.49    33.59    11.66P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               16   27   +3      67.79     9.87     3.38     0.63     4.76    28.39     9.63P    0.00R    0.00  
Bury                 16   25   +4      71.29    10.24    12.77     1.44     9.76    42.40    17.24P    0.01R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red            16   24  +11      76.00    10.16    29.30     3.97    20.92    62.14    31.85P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         16   22   +5      69.16    10.04    15.50     0.95     6.52    34.90    12.61P    0.01R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         16   22   +1      62.22    10.02     0.43     0.10     1.54    13.94     4.25P    0.05R    0.00  
Aldershot            16   21   -8      56.68     9.78   -17.76     0.03     0.35     4.97     1.03P    0.31R    0.04  
Port_Vale            16   19   -8      51.67     9.66   -21.42     0.01     0.12     1.78     0.44P    1.22R    0.20  
Notts_County         16   18   +1      61.70     9.93     5.59     0.09     1.24    12.99     4.01P    0.09R    0.02  
Accrington_Stanley   16   18   -2      57.26     9.99    -4.11     0.02     0.44     6.16     1.75P    0.31R    0.05  
Morecambe            16   16   -8      47.95     9.65   -24.10     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.14P    3.39R    0.74  
Macclesfield         15   14  -14      42.94     9.59   -39.47     0.00     0.00     0.25     0.03P   10.02R    2.67  
Chester              16   13  -14      41.64     9.42   -38.55     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   11.88R    3.39  
Barnet               16   13  -16      41.30     9.26   -40.70     0.00     0.00     0.10     0.02P   12.54R    3.90  
Rotherham            16    9   +4      53.97    10.18    10.29     0.01     0.15     3.53     1.30P    0.96R    0.19  
Grimsby              16    9  -19      30.45     8.24   -51.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    54.07R   26.19  
Bournemouth          15   -3   -8      32.33    10.17   -19.12     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   43.50R   23.27  
Luton                15  -11   -3      27.60    10.08    -8.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    61.63R   39.35  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 18 November 2008, Cambridge_Utd vs York; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Torquay              19   37  +13      86.31     8.89    31.73    24.54    78.55    39.76P    0.00     0.00  
Histon               18   37  +12      86.40     9.24    28.76    25.79    77.22    39.65P    0.00R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        19   37   +9      79.22     9.02    17.22     7.01    49.10    15.10P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        19   34   +7      77.14     8.75    16.36     4.21    39.55    13.39P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster        18   33  +10      80.03     9.63    24.07    10.56    53.60    20.48P    0.00R    0.00  
Kettering            18   32   +8      77.72     9.31    19.26     5.80    43.15    15.63P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         18   31  +11      78.46     9.28    25.58     6.92    47.70    17.50P    0.01R    0.00  
Wrexham              17   30  +11      81.46     9.65    30.74    13.56    60.23    25.37P    0.01R    0.00  
Stevenage            19   28   -2      62.67     8.80    -6.77     0.09     3.64     0.70P    0.79R    0.01  
Weymouth             20   27   -2      59.97     8.73    -7.26     0.03     1.88     0.35P    1.59R    0.03  
Rushden_&_D'monds    19   26   +4      69.72     8.93    14.40     0.57    14.32     4.40P    0.16R    0.00  
Altrincham           18   25   -3      59.06     9.07    -8.99     0.03     1.84     0.36P    2.80R    0.07  
Mansfield            18   24   +2      66.62     9.32     8.98     0.35     9.41     2.30P    0.40R    0.01  
Barrow               18   24   -4      57.84     9.10   -12.70     0.01     1.34     0.20P    3.95R    0.16  
Ebbsfleet_United     18   23   +3      65.50     9.47     9.68     0.28     8.16     2.21P    0.69R    0.01  
York                 19   23   -1      65.50     9.37     7.79     0.20     7.53     1.97P    0.61R    0.01  
Salisbury            18   23   -4      56.65     9.01   -11.04     0.01     0.93     0.21P    4.91R    0.19  
Oxford_Utd           18   22   -3      57.87     9.41    -6.69     0.03     1.49     0.34P    4.11R    0.12  
Eastbourne_Borough   18   21   -9      51.76     8.96   -22.74     0.00     0.27     0.07P   13.10R    1.00  
Woking               19   18   -7      44.64     8.29   -20.05     0.00     0.02     0.00P   35.90R    3.44  
Forest_Green         18   16  -11      45.73     8.77   -27.33     0.00     0.03     0.00P   33.37R    3.58  
Grays_Athletic       18   15  -10      40.75     8.42   -28.50     0.00     0.00     0.00    56.37R    9.48  
Northwich            19   14   -9      42.74     8.55   -23.27     0.00     0.01     0.01P   45.42R    6.16  
Lewes                19   11  -25      28.47     6.99   -59.25     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.81R   75.73