Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Sunday 9 November 2008 at 10:39:03 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 November 2008, Arsenal vs Man_Utd; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool       12   29  +11      82.52     8.65    38.95     7.77    63.66    85.40    94.18    98.95     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         11   26  +23      96.45     5.94    88.56    89.73    98.67    99.78    99.96   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Arsenal         12   23  +12      66.01     9.35    23.76     0.34     5.95    20.66    42.36    74.71     0.05R    0.01  
Man_Utd         11   21  +10      74.09     9.51    36.16     1.90    22.73    55.69    75.31    92.36     0.00R    0.00  
Aston_Villa     11   20   +5      66.08     9.90    19.93     0.20     6.08    21.99    42.38    73.97     0.13R    0.02  
Hull            12   20   -2      53.23     9.61    -8.12     0.01     0.43     2.15     6.52    23.95     2.14R    0.19  
Everton         12   18   -2      49.38     9.37   -13.51     0.00     0.09     0.69     2.73    13.64     5.69R    0.80  
Portsmouth      12   17   -5      52.11     9.69    -6.18     0.00     0.21     1.57     4.95    20.18     3.82R    0.60  
Bolton          12   14   -2      42.69     8.84   -11.67     0.00     0.02     0.10     0.45     3.57    16.85R    3.41  
Middlesbrough   11   14   -5      42.59     9.51   -19.37     0.00     0.02     0.19     0.73     4.40    20.63R    5.22  
Stoke           12   14   -6      46.86     9.70   -11.65     0.00     0.05     0.47     1.70     9.01    10.84R    2.41  
Man_City        11   13   +5      60.55    10.00    24.17     0.03     1.96    10.07    23.76    55.39     0.63R    0.11  
West_Ham        12   13   -6      38.87     8.81   -26.91     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.18     1.60    32.57R    9.50  
Blackburn       11   13   -7      38.23     9.16   -32.22     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.21     1.65    37.14R   12.05  
Wigan           12   12   -3      46.28     9.57    -5.85     0.00     0.04     0.38     1.49     8.45    10.74R    2.47  
Newcastle       11   12   -4      41.47     9.24   -18.39     0.00     0.00     0.07     0.31     2.93    23.04R    6.07  
Sunderland      12   12   -8      40.83     9.38   -18.97     0.00     0.00     0.09     0.35     2.65    26.10R    8.12  
Fulham          10   11   -1      40.92     9.91   -12.14     0.00     0.03     0.17     0.67     3.96    25.42R    7.56  
West_Brom       12   11  -11      31.38     8.12   -39.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.19    67.44R   36.46  
Tottenham       11    9   -4      44.91    10.51    -7.17     0.00     0.05     0.45     1.74     8.46    16.76R    4.99  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 November 2008, Barnsley vs Sheff_Utd; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton    16   37  +14      94.59     9.33    45.52    44.93    74.36    97.61    79.08P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham       16   31   +8      79.85    10.23    19.61     6.18    16.63    69.11    29.86P    0.01R    0.00  
Reading          16   30  +20      93.09     8.94    60.41    38.79    72.23    97.21    80.46P    0.00     0.00  
Sheff_Utd        16   28  +11      80.47     9.90    27.49     6.22    17.96    73.34    36.98P    0.01R    0.00  
Burnley          16   26   +1      72.31     9.82     9.38     0.57     3.31    40.30    10.72P    0.13R    0.00  
Cardiff          16   25   +5      68.38    10.03     8.57     0.54     2.22    26.46     8.01P    0.40R    0.00  
QPR              16   25   +1      67.18    10.13     3.36     0.38     1.59    22.76     6.33P    0.72R    0.01  
Ipswich          16   24   +8      74.05     9.67    22.19     1.27     5.39    49.32    17.51P    0.06R    0.00  
Bristol_City     16   24   +2      69.18    10.11     8.42     0.45     2.15    29.75     8.11P    0.50R    0.01  
Plymouth         16   22   +0      65.54     9.94     3.81     0.13     0.90    18.52     4.67P    1.02R    0.04  
Sheff_Wed        16   22   -8      57.37     9.88   -17.23     0.01     0.10     4.47     0.68P    6.76R    0.32  
Swansea          15   21   +1      66.45    10.48     6.27     0.25     1.40    22.43     6.21P    1.04R    0.01  
Derby            16   21   -1      59.68    10.24    -5.59     0.05     0.31     8.03     1.84P    4.41R    0.16  
Preston          16   21   -2      60.81     9.62    -4.59     0.03     0.20     8.17     1.61P    2.76R    0.10  
Blackpool        16   21   -3      57.73    10.15   -11.19     0.05     0.22     5.24     1.11P    6.66R    0.27  
Crystal_Palace   16   20   +2      64.17     9.96     7.33     0.10     0.73    15.60     4.43P    1.26R    0.02  
Coventry         16   20   -2      56.66     9.85    -8.89     0.03     0.16     4.09     0.90P    7.12R    0.30  
Barnsley         16   18   -4      49.53     9.66   -19.93     0.01     0.02     0.92     0.16P   23.68R    1.43  
Norwich          16   17   -5      51.96     9.78   -16.82     0.00     0.02     1.53     0.31P   16.86R    1.13  
Charlton         16   16   -6      51.51     9.66   -15.49     0.00     0.02     1.19     0.23P   17.92R    1.33  
Southampton      16   16  -10      43.30     8.99   -35.84     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   50.28R    6.79  
Watford          15   15   -4      55.49    10.16   -10.06     0.00     0.07     3.71     0.74P   10.09R    0.74  
Nottm_Forest     16   11  -12      42.38     9.40   -27.36     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   52.42R    9.66  
Doncaster        16    9  -16      27.67     7.61   -49.35     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.89R   77.65  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 November 2008, Brighton vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Scunthorpe       15   30  +11      80.25    10.74    23.92     8.15    17.70    57.31    26.35P    0.02R    0.00  
Leeds            15   29   +9      79.50    10.48    22.04     6.37    15.34    54.77    24.91P    0.02R    0.00  
Millwall         15   29   +4      80.38    10.55    18.66     6.77    16.42    57.17    24.63P    0.05R    0.00  
MK_Dons          14   28  +13      87.65    10.57    38.88    22.50    41.67    80.90    52.68P    0.00     0.00  
Leicester        14   28  +12      91.53    10.28    44.24    37.16    57.30    89.30    67.37P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           15   25   +9      80.87    10.48    31.78     7.45    18.39    61.49    30.00P    0.04R    0.00  
Stockport        15   25   +7      75.96    10.59    20.11     2.95     8.58    42.01    18.28P    0.09R    0.00  
Southend         15   25   +1      65.61    10.44    -3.28     0.40     1.26    11.64     3.11P    1.33R    0.01  
Peterborough     14   23  +10      76.66    10.91    26.58     4.82    11.66    45.62    21.18P    0.10R    0.00  
Hartlepool       15   23   +4      72.14    10.60    14.61     1.43     4.43    28.74    10.13P    0.28R    0.00  
Tranmere         15   23   +2      69.19    10.59     7.43     0.69     2.49    19.47     6.33P    0.60R    0.00  
Walsall          14   21   +2      65.71    11.11     2.64     0.53     1.65    13.67     4.23P    1.71R    0.02  
Bristol_Rovers   15   20   +5      64.72    10.57     7.67     0.30     1.14    11.41     3.35P    1.58R    0.01  
Brighton         15   19   +0      59.32    10.52    -3.82     0.07     0.31     4.28     1.26P    5.39R    0.15  
Northampton      14   17   +0      63.93    11.11     4.36     0.26     0.97    10.65     3.36P    2.81R    0.08  
Huddersfield     15   17   -6      56.82    10.43   -12.25     0.04     0.12     2.48     0.52P    9.04R    0.36  
Swindon          14   16   -4      58.27    11.02    -8.47     0.06     0.26     3.97     1.03P    8.40R    0.33  
Colchester       14   15   -2      59.11    10.84    -3.63     0.06     0.28     4.63     1.19P    6.42R    0.25  
Yeovil           14   15   -8      45.17     9.99   -30.39     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.03P   41.91R    4.16  
Carlisle         15   14  -10      45.74    10.01   -31.66     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.04P   39.45R    3.82  
Leyton_Orient    15   13  -11      41.46     9.67   -32.39     0.00     0.00     0.08     0.02P   57.29R    8.58  
Cheltenham       15   11  -18      41.76     9.73   -43.38     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00P   55.99R   10.69  
Crewe            15    9  -15      36.80     9.38   -46.94     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   74.93R   19.48  
Hereford         15    9  -15      29.76     8.17   -46.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.54R   52.06  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 1 November 2008, Bournemouth vs Chesterfield; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Darlington           15   28  +13      86.40    10.21    40.61    21.99    55.12    87.66    63.74P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              14   28   +9      89.28    10.28    33.51    31.11    64.99    92.19    74.06P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford             15   27   +8      74.56    10.38    17.58     3.16    14.68    51.50    21.56P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter               15   27   +4      70.43    10.25     6.19     1.21     7.11    35.05    12.33P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury           15   26  +18      84.01     9.98    44.01    15.94    46.56    83.98    58.62P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             15   26   +9      79.42    10.41    27.57     7.23    28.07    70.16    37.91P    0.00     0.00  
Bury                 15   25   +6      79.32    10.32    25.96     6.95    27.17    69.99    37.53P    0.00     0.00  
Dag_&_Red            15   24  +12      80.60    10.40    36.37     8.87    33.03    74.71    44.09P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            15   24   +5      72.39    10.33    14.38     1.76     9.95    43.16    18.75P    0.00R    0.00  
Gillingham           15   24   +0      61.19    10.27    -8.32     0.14     1.32    11.05     2.95P    0.06R    0.00  
Lincoln_City         15   22   +3      64.75    10.49     4.09     0.34     2.77    18.64     6.36P    0.02R    0.00  
Chesterfield         15   21   +5      70.12    10.45    16.70     1.19     7.43    35.89    13.52P    0.01R    0.00  
Port_Vale            15   19   -5      54.35     9.92   -16.16     0.02     0.21     3.12     0.72P    0.37R    0.05  
Aldershot            15   18   -9      53.11     9.94   -23.12     0.02     0.15     2.31     0.48P    0.72R    0.08  
Notts_County         15   15   -3      55.00    10.35    -6.72     0.03     0.24     3.95     1.06P    0.50R    0.05  
Accrington_Stanley   15   15   -5      51.82    10.06   -12.82     0.00     0.09     1.85     0.47P    0.99R    0.14  
Morecambe            15   13   -9      45.80    10.12   -26.38     0.00     0.02     0.52     0.11P    4.29R    0.82  
Barnet               15   13  -12      47.57    10.49   -27.09     0.00     0.02     0.86     0.18P    3.55R    0.66  
Chester              15   13  -13      45.92    10.13   -32.33     0.00     0.01     0.52     0.08P    4.18R    0.79  
Macclesfield         14   13  -14      39.24     9.54   -49.57     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   13.41R    3.14  
Rotherham            15    9   +8      61.54    10.41    24.09     0.06     1.06    12.71     5.43P    0.09R    0.01  
Grimsby              15    6  -21      24.84     7.98   -62.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.22R   38.35  
Bournemouth          14   -3   -5      36.29    10.67   -11.94     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.02P   22.90R    8.28  
Luton                14  -14   -4      22.78    10.25   -14.51     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.69R   47.64  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 8 November 2008, Northwich vs Burton_Albion; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Burton_Albion        18   34   +8      78.97     9.26    18.51     9.43    50.37    17.47P    0.00     0.00  
Kettering            17   32   +9      80.07     9.62    21.92    12.99    55.01    24.42P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay              17   31   +9      82.40     9.42    26.64    18.09    64.97    31.38P    0.00R    0.00  
Histon               16   31   +9      81.36    10.20    23.16    16.91    59.80    28.10P    0.01R    0.00  
Crawley_Town         17   30  +11      80.32     9.58    27.85    13.07    57.81    25.23P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster        17   30   +9      76.49     9.79    20.03     7.21    41.44    15.25P    0.03R    0.00  
Cambridge_Utd        17   30   +6      74.84     9.52    14.05     4.52    33.79    11.90P    0.02R    0.00  
Wrexham              16   27   +9      78.68    10.23    26.80    11.95    51.26    21.71P    0.02R    0.00  
Stevenage            17   27   +0      67.20     9.59     0.31     0.84    11.82     2.79P    0.33R    0.01  
Rushden_&_D'monds    18   26   +5      72.68     9.31    17.88     2.33    26.02     9.08P    0.06R    0.00  
Weymouth             18   26   +0      64.10     9.47    -1.16     0.31     6.73     1.48P    0.68R    0.01  
Barrow               17   24   -3      59.85     9.40   -11.03     0.10     2.83     0.56P    2.38R    0.07  
York                 17   23   +1      68.80     9.98    10.85     1.30    16.40     5.13P    0.29R    0.02  
Salisbury            17   23   -1      60.05     9.66    -4.89     0.12     3.14     0.79P    2.30R    0.09  
Oxford_Utd           17   22   -1      61.91     9.72    -0.54     0.20     4.63     1.13P    1.62R    0.06  
Altrincham           17   22   -5      55.21     9.39   -13.94     0.02     0.97     0.24P    6.79R    0.32  
Mansfield            17   21   -1      62.09     9.72     1.15     0.20     5.06     1.22P    1.53R    0.07  
Ebbsfleet_United     17   20   +2      63.94     9.82     8.82     0.36     7.20     2.00P    1.12R    0.04  
Eastbourne_Borough   17   20   -9      53.18     9.33   -21.59     0.01     0.49     0.08P    9.98R    0.81  
Woking               17   16   -7      43.91     8.89   -23.02     0.00     0.05     0.02P   37.66R    4.65  
Forest_Green         17   16   -9      49.21     9.29   -21.19     0.00     0.19     0.03P   18.68R    1.83  
Northwich            18   13   -9      41.52     8.76   -26.75     0.00     0.01     0.00P   49.14R    7.68  
Grays_Athletic       17   12  -12      36.04     8.39   -35.23     0.00     0.00     0.00    74.82R   21.75  
Lewes                17   11  -21      29.61     7.64   -58.62     0.00     0.00     0.00    92.53R   62.58