Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 2 October 2008 at 14:34:32 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 September 2008, Portsmouth vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Chelsea          6   14   +9      89.81    10.11    77.83    52.72    72.88    84.51    91.22    97.39     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool        6   14   +5      71.58    12.10    26.03     4.60    13.40    24.55    38.24    67.09     0.02R    0.00  
Aston_Villa      6   13   +4      74.85    12.94    51.09     8.35    21.29    37.50    52.40    75.68     0.11R    0.01  
Arsenal          6   12   +8      65.69    14.63    26.21     5.13    11.71    19.39    28.68    49.78     0.52R    0.05  
West_Ham         6   12   +3      66.52    13.10    28.21     3.13     8.40    16.49    26.82    51.53     0.34R    0.02  
Hull             6   11   -2      43.80    13.07   -32.87     0.11     0.45     0.98     1.86     5.70    12.09R    2.24  
Blackburn        6   10   -4      39.22    12.07   -39.57     0.02     0.10     0.29     0.72     2.52    19.93R    3.87  
Man_City         6    9   +7      83.12    10.08    92.56    19.45    49.06    69.15    81.71    94.02     0.00R    0.00  
Portsmouth       6    9   -5      45.28    12.78   -20.00     0.01     0.14     0.60     1.60     6.21     9.26R    1.45  
Wigan            6    8   +4      73.17    11.83    45.18     4.08    14.35    29.62    46.36    73.88     0.04R    0.00  
Man_Utd          5    8   +2      61.42    15.42    17.06     2.05     6.53    12.27    19.89    39.15     1.79R    0.25  
West_Brom        6    7   -1      43.54    11.70   -10.81     0.01     0.11     0.30     0.81     3.76     8.95R    1.22  
Sunderland       6    7   -2      54.87    14.08     6.36     0.28     1.21     3.18     6.81    20.93     3.17R    0.46  
Everton          6    7   -4      33.46    11.58   -64.04     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.15     0.84    36.76R   12.94  
Fulham           5    6   -1      41.75    13.64   -16.98     0.05     0.22     0.61     1.39     5.04    16.49R    4.21  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -3      35.90    13.26   -41.97     0.01     0.05     0.16     0.39     2.08    31.66R   11.41  
Bolton           6    4   -4      30.03    12.26   -47.24     0.00     0.01     0.06     0.16     0.72    48.19R   20.85  
Stoke            6    4   -5      35.76    12.28   -32.60     0.00     0.03     0.10     0.27     1.47    28.97R    8.47  
Newcastle        6    4   -6      28.54    11.05   -44.81     0.00     0.01     0.04     0.09     0.30    53.38R   22.46  
Tottenham        6    2   -5      36.60    13.24   -19.64     0.00     0.04     0.17     0.42     1.90    28.33R   10.09  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 September 2008, Bristol_City vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton     9   22  +13     106.12    12.13    84.41    40.76    81.33    98.02    86.01P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham        9   20   +6      81.08    15.60    21.03     5.80    14.43    60.12    26.84P    0.09R    0.00  
Reading           8   16  +13     107.05    12.04   109.16    48.98    83.61    98.11    88.02P    0.00     0.00  
Burnley           9   15   +0      64.83    14.58    -6.40     0.14     0.91    19.94     4.32P    3.34R    0.37  
Sheff_Wed         9   15   -2      70.39    14.84     5.67     0.14     1.18    32.61     7.64P    1.46R    0.12  
Sheff_Utd         9   14   +5      71.52    15.04    13.87     1.56     4.84    36.91    13.80P    0.75R    0.05  
Cardiff           9   14   +2      61.19    15.04    -6.78     0.27     1.19    15.97     4.63P    3.84R    0.31  
QPR               9   14   +1      56.29    15.19   -19.03     0.22     0.84    10.33     2.71P    7.99R    0.86  
Preston           9   14   -1      66.12    14.69    -1.30     0.12     0.78    22.84     5.23P    3.09R    0.39  
Bristol_City      9   13   +4      72.77    14.44    17.54     1.05     4.16    40.05    13.62P    0.53R    0.03  
Ipswich           9   12   +4      77.18    13.23    26.43     0.55     3.56    52.12    19.08P    0.21R    0.02  
Plymouth          9   12   -1      68.63    13.91     8.54     0.08     0.90    27.76     7.42P    1.19R    0.10  
Coventry          9   12   -1      52.23    13.72   -20.56     0.03     0.16     4.76     1.11P   12.16R    1.32  
Blackpool         9   12   -2      52.92    13.41   -17.72     0.07     0.24     4.92     1.27P   10.04R    1.18  
Swansea           9   12   -3      60.63    14.44    -6.83     0.04     0.33    12.93     3.01P    5.39R    0.68  
Southampton       9   11   -1      50.76    15.05   -27.92     0.06     0.27     5.59     1.29P   17.44R    2.60  
Charlton          9   10   -1      64.08    14.15     3.72     0.02     0.35    18.86     4.83P    3.06R    0.38  
Derby             9   10   -1      50.76    13.91   -18.92     0.02     0.14     4.16     0.99P   14.78R    1.90  
Norwich           9   10   -3      48.50    13.96   -26.03     0.05     0.19     3.46     0.84P   19.81R    3.32  
Crystal_Palace    9    9   -3      62.19    14.59     2.30     0.03     0.35    15.69     4.31P    4.70R    0.53  
Watford           9    8   -4      60.44    14.47    -4.37     0.02     0.20    12.96     2.67P    6.21R    0.98  
Doncaster         9    7   -9      30.68    10.83   -56.91     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.00P   75.72R   38.05  
Barnsley          9    5   -7      32.00    11.68   -45.55     0.00     0.00     0.18     0.05P   70.86R   32.09  
Nottm_Forest      8    4   -9      43.44    14.98   -34.33     0.00     0.03     1.67     0.32P   37.34R   14.70  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 30 September 2008, Colchester vs Leicester; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Leicester             8   19  +11     105.97    12.01    70.99    46.29    68.80    96.09    80.12P    0.00R    0.00  
Oldham                8   18  +10      99.73    12.78    73.42    24.42    49.83    90.26    60.93P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe            8   18   +9      90.66    14.87    48.99    12.10    26.28    71.75    37.76P    0.03R    0.00  
Leeds                 8   17   +7      82.35    14.15    30.16     2.98     9.24    51.32    18.82P    0.09R    0.00  
Millwall              8   17   +6      89.85    14.02    41.09     6.94    19.98    71.13    35.09P    0.03R    0.00  
Walsall               8   16   +5      73.54    15.26    14.14     1.04     3.84    29.37     9.03P    0.75R    0.03  
Carlisle              8   13   +3      68.79    15.23     8.85     0.58     2.02    19.45     5.41P    1.71R    0.07  
Southend              7   13   +2      68.03    16.25     2.84     0.78     2.54    19.75     5.46P    3.02R    0.13  
Milton_Keynes_Dons    7   12   +4      82.49    15.52    33.56     3.49    10.63    51.75    22.10P    0.27R    0.02  
Stockport             8   11   +1      65.82    15.13     6.05     0.17     0.91    14.54     4.18P    3.22R    0.22  
Hartlepool            8   10   +1      75.11    15.35    25.43     0.72     3.33    33.36     9.82P    1.13R    0.05  
Tranmere              8   10   -1      67.28    15.44     8.04     0.17     1.04    17.57     3.83P    3.14R    0.30  
Huddersfield          8    9   -2      60.77    15.49    -2.65     0.08     0.38     8.61     2.01P    7.60R    0.87  
Peterborough          7    8   +1      62.79    15.24     2.55     0.17     0.81    10.65     2.88P    5.09R    0.47  
Swindon               8    8   -4      49.68    14.63   -27.13     0.01     0.06     2.01     0.34P   22.19R    3.33  
Colchester            8    8   -5      58.91    15.25    -8.87     0.03     0.20     6.65     1.20P    9.27R    1.17  
Leyton_Orient         8    8   -8      35.64    12.66   -51.76     0.00     0.01     0.16     0.03P   60.30R   17.98  
Bristol_Rovers        9    7   +0      48.03    13.41   -27.55     0.00     0.01     1.01     0.16P   22.34R    2.48  
Northampton           8    7   -3      52.13    14.85   -20.03     0.03     0.08     2.75     0.51P   18.39R    2.80  
Brighton              7    7   -3      42.78    13.92   -33.36     0.00     0.01     0.61     0.16P   38.16R    7.69  
Crewe                 8    7   -6      42.61    13.43   -45.05     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.07P   38.66R    7.26  
Yeovil                8    7   -7      42.11    13.87   -40.40     0.00     0.02     0.52     0.07P   40.61R    8.27  
Cheltenham            9    7  -13      40.06    12.94   -52.43     0.00     0.00     0.21     0.02P   46.87R   12.13  
Hereford              8    4   -8      29.80    11.58   -56.86     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.00    77.11R   34.75  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 September 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bury                  8   18   +7      89.82    15.46    44.51    13.77    42.05    79.50    50.82P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe               8   18   +6      94.06    13.15    41.53    17.12    52.02    89.47    66.99P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury            8   17  +14      99.07    11.65    66.96    35.10    68.82    95.58    78.10P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford             8   15   +6      87.64    15.12    38.70     9.52    34.74    76.27    49.45P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford              8   15   +5      78.82    14.78    29.05     3.75    18.08    55.96    25.03P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red             8   14  +10      91.94    14.32    69.10    16.50    49.18    84.51    57.58P    0.00R    0.00  
Aldershot             8   13   +0      67.89    15.88     5.93     0.95     6.86    28.99    10.42P    0.08R    0.01  
Gillingham            8   13   -3      52.10    14.36   -28.41     0.07     0.60     5.37     1.24P    1.29R    0.18  
Rochdale              8   12   +2      66.46    15.50     6.42     0.37     3.54    25.53     7.28P    0.23R    0.04  
Darlington            8   11   +6      68.98    15.79    18.15     1.30     7.80    33.05    13.44P    0.06R    0.01  
Exeter                8   11   +0      65.36    16.00     4.90     0.57     4.88    24.83     8.50P    0.20R    0.03  
Notts_County          8    9   +0      66.36    16.06    11.14     0.63     5.72    27.10    10.17P    0.26R    0.06  
Chester               8    9   -4      61.19    15.92    -5.33     0.14     1.64    17.22     3.35P    0.33R    0.06  
Chesterfield          8    9   -4      55.45    16.35   -13.32     0.06     0.78    10.33     2.16P    1.03R    0.16  
Macclesfield          8    9  -12      38.18    13.11   -69.84     0.00     0.04     0.70     0.10P   12.74R    3.93  
Morecambe             8    7   -3      56.15    16.24    -7.57     0.03     0.68    11.13     2.38P    1.18R    0.15  
Accrington_Stanley    8    7   -4      42.53    13.14   -30.40     0.00     0.05     0.93     0.22P    6.31R    1.77  
Port_Vale             8    7   -5      45.15    13.58   -30.97     0.00     0.09     1.65     0.32P    4.34R    1.20  
Lincoln_City          8    6   -4      48.83    16.50   -19.91     0.01     0.34     5.47     1.21P    3.88R    0.75  
Barnet                8    4  -11      28.50    12.87   -73.01     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.01P   41.22R   15.29  
Grimsby               8    3  -11      18.99     8.93   -77.40     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    73.67R   47.81  
Rotherham             8   -2   +5      66.41    14.18    34.16     0.10     2.06    25.45    10.94P    0.10R    0.02  
Bournemouth           8   -8   +0      39.65    14.82    -6.36     0.00     0.02     0.83     0.30P   13.44R    5.57  
Luton                 8  -19   +0      26.98    13.79    -8.02     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.01P   39.62R   22.98  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 29 September 2008, Rushden_&_D'monds vs Altrincham; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Crawley_Town         12   26  +11      89.53    11.79    39.12    30.55    77.59    42.77P    0.00R    0.00  
Kidderminster        12   23   +7      79.72    12.31    24.42     9.67    48.29    17.64P    0.09R    0.00  
Mansfield            12   21   +5      77.30    12.35    21.37     6.29    40.78    13.51P    0.14R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        12   21   +4      72.75    12.32    11.98     3.30    26.96     7.23P    0.34R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        12   21   +4      74.99    11.79    15.74     3.82    32.04    10.63P    0.14R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     12   20  +11      83.72    11.85    39.28    15.67    62.69    30.34P    0.02R    0.00  
Kettering            12   20   +6      77.59    12.10    23.36     6.00    41.88    15.78P    0.10R    0.00  
Salisbury            12   20   +4      67.43    12.06     5.60     1.20    14.81     4.37P    1.03R    0.04  
Histon               12   19   +4      67.42    12.30     6.77     1.31    15.35     4.36P    1.06R    0.05  
Rushden_&_D'monds    11   18   +8      84.72    11.88    37.22    16.58    66.18    33.31P    0.04R    0.00  
Stevenage            12   18   +0      66.08    11.97     1.50     0.74    12.25     2.68P    1.46R    0.10  
Torquay              12   18   +0      66.70    12.55     3.76     1.15    14.42     4.16P    1.46R    0.07  
York                 12   16   +0      65.49    12.07     4.72     0.68    11.27     3.09P    1.74R    0.09  
Weymouth             12   16   -2      57.98    11.85   -11.97     0.18     3.89     0.78P    6.14R    0.43  
Wrexham              11   14   +3      70.46    13.14    17.19     2.63    23.43     7.67P    1.24R    0.08  
Barrow               12   14   -4      55.38    11.99   -16.85     0.06     2.37     0.43P   10.18R    0.92  
Forest_Green         12   14   -5      53.48    11.59   -16.61     0.04     1.50     0.34P   12.02R    1.18  
Eastbourne_Borough   12   14   -7      53.19    11.91   -21.13     0.07     1.67     0.34P   13.89R    1.62  
Altrincham           12   13   -7      46.02    10.95   -26.99     0.00     0.24     0.06P   30.30R    4.16  
Oxford_Utd           12   12   -3      53.21    11.72   -11.89     0.03     1.60     0.33P   12.19R    1.19  
Woking               12   11   -5      44.62    11.51   -24.45     0.01     0.34     0.07P   35.34R    5.79  
Grays_Athletic       12   10   -7      46.32    11.53   -23.61     0.01     0.36     0.09P   29.70R    5.39  
Lewes                12    7  -18      27.52     9.17   -65.38     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.11R   65.31  
Northwich            12    6   -9      40.09    11.15   -33.14     0.00     0.08     0.03P   51.25R   13.58