Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Monday 29 September 2008 at 08:29:50 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 September 2008, Portsmouth vs Tottenham; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Liverpool        6   14   +5      70.06    11.62    23.78     2.51     9.23    19.42    33.38    64.30     0.03R    0.00  
Arsenal          6   12   +8      65.37    14.85    24.93     3.94    10.94    19.51    29.25    50.31     0.52R    0.04  
West_Ham         5   12   +6      68.52    15.70    32.21     7.25    16.07    25.98    36.73    56.64     0.44R    0.05  
Hull             6   11   -2      44.22    13.24   -37.95     0.06     0.30     0.81     1.94     6.48    10.39R    1.51  
Aston_Villa      5   10   +2      59.51    16.06     3.56     1.43     5.11    11.15    18.26    35.61     2.71R    0.40  
Blackburn        6   10   -4      39.64    12.22   -42.30     0.01     0.06     0.26     0.61     2.70    17.39R    2.83  
Portsmouth       4    9   +0      57.94    15.41     4.15     0.55     3.69     8.33    14.55    30.97     2.61R    0.38  
Wigan            5    8   +5      76.66    11.55    49.83     5.76    23.21    42.45    59.38    82.14     0.01R    0.00  
Chelsea          4    8   +4      78.69    13.79    51.21    11.17    33.55    51.21    64.41    82.25     0.10R    0.01  
West_Brom        6    7   -1      43.71    11.24   -12.46     0.02     0.10     0.31     0.76     3.42     6.67R    0.74  
Sunderland       6    7   -2      55.30    14.47     6.54     0.25     1.71     4.57     9.09    23.38     2.82R    0.36  
Everton          6    7   -4      34.68    11.62   -69.15     0.00     0.02     0.06     0.21     0.97    30.74R    8.79  
Man_City         4    6   +6      91.19    11.54   175.60    57.64    76.49    85.90    91.12    96.25     0.05R    0.01  
Fulham           5    6   -1      42.20    13.76   -17.82     0.02     0.14     0.61     1.51     5.45    14.76R    3.09  
Middlesbrough    6    6   -3      36.42    13.61   -48.53     0.01     0.05     0.21     0.52     2.41    29.47R    9.51  
Man_Utd          3    4   +1      66.31    20.68    38.47     9.38    19.25    29.02    37.62    53.06     4.02R    1.02  
Bolton           6    4   -4      30.51    12.60   -48.07     0.00     0.02     0.08     0.17     0.89    45.57R   17.80  
Stoke            6    4   -5      31.94    11.52   -51.36     0.00     0.01     0.02     0.08     0.52    39.21R   12.27  
Newcastle        5    3   -6      26.45    11.57   -54.36     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.05     0.34    59.26R   29.26  
Tottenham        6    2   -5      34.93    13.77   -28.28     0.00     0.03     0.12     0.36     1.93    33.24R   11.92  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 27 September 2008, Barnsley vs Norwich; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Wolverhampton     8   22  +16     113.36    12.17   108.49    76.77    90.72    98.95    92.84P    0.00     0.00  
Birmingham        8   19   +6      86.05    16.19    29.43     8.85    26.77    70.03    38.76P    0.05R    0.00  
Preston           8   14   +1      74.37    15.70    13.67     0.55     7.14    43.48    15.10P    0.95R    0.09  
Reading           7   13  +10      90.89    16.18    67.79     8.56    41.51    80.76    50.67P    0.16R    0.02  
QPR               8   13   +1      61.98    16.37    -8.94     0.42     2.31    18.63     5.55P    4.86R    0.70  
Bristol_City      8   12   +4      79.72    15.28    29.60     2.47    12.91    58.26    27.35P    0.23R    0.01  
Coventry          8   12   +0      59.03    15.40    -9.89     0.20     1.14    12.98     3.84P    6.57R    0.97  
Burnley           8   12   -1      59.73    15.66   -12.82     0.09     1.08    13.62     3.62P    7.72R    1.54  
Sheff_Wed         8   12   -3      69.38    15.48     5.92     0.18     2.71    30.99     8.32P    1.77R    0.31  
Sheff_Utd         8   11   +3      69.63    16.03    11.71     0.96     4.71    33.34    12.67P    1.77R    0.33  
Cardiff           8   11   +1      60.54    16.18    -5.10     0.29     1.53    16.31     5.10P    5.95R    0.77  
Plymouth          8   11   -1      63.56    14.73     0.71     0.08     1.11    18.33     5.54P    3.38R    0.49  
Blackpool         8   11   -2      53.99    14.99   -16.71     0.09     0.44     7.15     1.91P   12.29R    2.21  
Charlton          8   10   +0      64.97    14.80     4.11     0.07     1.12    21.13     6.08P    2.94R    0.37  
Norwich           8   10   -1      56.99    16.41   -12.76     0.14     0.95    12.23     3.60P   10.80R    2.22  
Ipswich           8    9   +1      69.69    14.59    14.40     0.20     2.60    31.11    10.98P    1.22R    0.15  
Derby             8    9   -1      50.96    15.18   -19.85     0.03     0.27     5.46     1.50P   17.13R    4.04  
Swansea           8    9   -5      47.97    14.40   -27.54     0.00     0.07     2.92     0.66P   24.83R    7.28  
Watford           8    8   -3      56.16    14.73   -12.58     0.02     0.25     8.20     1.74P   10.37R    2.18  
Southampton       8    8   -3      46.28    15.65   -37.33     0.05     0.23     3.94     0.91P   29.93R    8.85  
Doncaster         8    7   -7      36.77    12.88   -44.77     0.00     0.02     0.53     0.11P   55.10R   24.01  
Crystal_Palace    8    6   -4      56.04    15.16    -5.23     0.01     0.29     8.78     2.43P   10.31R    2.42  
Barnsley          8    5   -4      37.22    13.46   -34.41     0.00     0.01     0.73     0.21P   52.93R   23.90  
Nottm_Forest      7    4   -8      43.32    15.60   -37.89     0.00     0.10     2.14     0.50P   38.76R   17.13  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 September 2008, Swindon vs Millwall; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Oldham                8   18  +10     100.25    13.01    74.10    26.29    51.33    90.58    62.08P    0.00R    0.00  
Scunthorpe            8   18   +9      91.18    14.57    49.71    11.88    26.79    73.75    38.81P    0.04R    0.00  
Leeds                 8   17   +7      82.82    14.47    31.05     3.51    10.41    51.97    20.11P    0.12R    0.00  
Millwall              8   17   +6      89.50    14.19    40.56     6.37    19.28    70.10    34.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Leicester             7   16  +10     105.27    13.02    74.62    44.87    66.36    94.35    77.28P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall               8   16   +5      73.23    14.85    13.66     1.06     3.44    28.02     8.28P    0.61R    0.01  
Carlisle              8   13   +3      69.47    15.07     9.90     0.59     2.21    20.82     5.91P    1.51R    0.03  
Southend              7   13   +2      67.98    16.36     2.64     0.77     2.63    20.14     5.65P    3.24R    0.18  
Milton_Keynes_Dons    7   12   +4      83.15    15.17    34.55     3.34    10.86    53.86    22.91P    0.19R    0.01  
Stockport             8   11   +1      65.27    15.07     5.20     0.19     0.92    13.44     4.04P    3.42R    0.24  
Hartlepool            8   10   +1      73.92    15.54    22.52     0.61     2.96    31.17     9.14P    1.49R    0.11  
Tranmere              8   10   -1      67.26    15.29     7.94     0.20     1.13    17.28     4.03P    3.06R    0.23  
Huddersfield          8    9   -2      60.75    15.16    -2.83     0.06     0.38     8.42     1.79P    6.78R    0.63  
Peterborough          7    8   +1      62.67    15.49     2.17     0.16     0.77    10.89     3.06P    5.96R    0.63  
Colchester            7    8   -4      58.07    15.76   -13.52     0.05     0.32     6.99     1.26P   10.99R    1.63  
Swindon               8    8   -4      49.50    14.26   -27.43     0.01     0.04     1.75     0.32P   22.78R    3.12  
Leyton_Orient         8    8   -8      36.55    12.98   -50.24     0.00     0.01     0.25     0.05P   58.16R   17.58  
Bristol_Rovers        9    7   +0      48.60    13.47   -26.23     0.00     0.03     1.23     0.25P   21.40R    2.43  
Northampton           8    7   -3      52.18    14.90   -19.97     0.02     0.07     3.03     0.57P   18.02R    2.66  
Brighton              7    7   -3      43.09    14.00   -33.21     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.14P   37.44R    7.49  
Crewe                 8    7   -6      42.37    13.42   -45.52     0.00     0.03     0.53     0.12P   39.59R    7.69  
Yeovil                8    7   -7      42.50    13.88   -39.64     0.00     0.01     0.46     0.08P   39.87R    8.24  
Cheltenham            9    7  -13      40.03    12.70   -52.83     0.00     0.00     0.19     0.01P   47.31R   12.15  
Hereford              8    4   -8      29.70    11.26   -57.19     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.00P   78.01R   34.94  


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 September 2008, Accrington_Stanley vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Bury                  8   18   +7      90.65    15.36    46.82    14.72    43.50    80.95    52.30P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe               8   18   +6      96.56    12.84    45.81    21.91    59.84    92.49    73.34P    0.00     0.00  
Shrewsbury            8   17  +14      98.00    11.64    65.31    30.77    64.57    94.98    74.88P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford             8   15   +6      88.54    14.86    40.18    10.15    36.63    78.56    51.70P    0.00     0.00  
Bradford              8   15   +5      77.29    14.92    25.77     3.14    15.88    51.45    22.14P    0.00R    0.00  
Dag_&_Red             8   14  +10      92.18    14.07    69.91    15.47    48.48    85.72    57.31P    0.00     0.00  
Aldershot             8   13   +0      67.22    15.90     4.69     1.02     6.13    27.74     9.89P    0.10R    0.01  
Gillingham            8   13   -3      52.10    14.47   -28.76     0.05     0.61     5.63     1.33P    1.29R    0.23  
Rochdale              8   12   +2      67.12    15.59     7.88     0.52     3.73    27.03     7.51P    0.16R    0.02  
Darlington            8   11   +6      67.36    15.68    14.60     0.96     6.13    29.33    11.25P    0.15R    0.05  
Exeter                8   11   +0      63.91    15.62     1.81     0.40     3.89    21.45     6.89P    0.19R    0.03  
Notts_County          8    9   +0      65.31    15.95     8.82     0.54     4.76    24.87     9.11P    0.22R    0.06  
Chester               8    9   -4      62.45    15.92    -2.11     0.08     1.63    18.87     3.51P    0.40R    0.04  
Chesterfield          8    9   -4      57.20    16.95    -9.95     0.09     1.02    12.74     2.79P    1.28R    0.20  
Macclesfield          8    9  -12      37.10    13.28   -73.13     0.00     0.01     0.68     0.07P   14.93R    4.46  
Morecambe             8    7   -3      56.19    16.29    -7.38     0.04     0.72    10.95     2.24P    1.15R    0.20  
Accrington_Stanley    8    7   -4      42.21    12.86   -30.62     0.01     0.08     1.02     0.22P    5.97R    1.56  
Port_Vale             8    7   -5      44.33    13.37   -32.66     0.00     0.08     1.45     0.30P    4.62R    1.13  
Lincoln_City          8    6   -4      49.47    16.29   -18.37     0.02     0.21     5.36     1.01P    3.41R    0.71  
Barnet                8    4  -11      29.02    13.04   -71.12     0.00     0.00     0.12     0.02P   39.64R   15.35  
Grimsby               8    3  -11      19.27     9.12   -77.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.96R   47.16  
Rotherham             8   -2   +5      67.34    14.45    35.84     0.09     2.09    27.81    11.90P    0.18R    0.04  
Bournemouth           8   -8   +0      38.76    14.97    -8.21     0.00     0.02     0.79     0.29P   14.76R    6.54  
Luton                 8  -19   +0      27.24    13.52    -7.55     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.01P   38.58R   22.21  

Adjustments:
Rotherham            -17
Bournemouth          -17
Luton                -30


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 28 September 2008, Cambridge_Utd vs Grays_Athletic; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Crawley_Town         12   26  +11      89.32    11.99    38.83    27.62    76.03    40.09P    0.01R    0.00  
Kidderminster        12   23   +7      78.91    12.16    23.13     7.15    44.39    14.30P    0.06R    0.00  
Mansfield            12   21   +5      76.84    12.18    20.68     5.08    38.32    11.76P    0.12R    0.00  
Burton_Albion        12   21   +4      72.99    12.13    12.41     2.76    26.76     6.90P    0.34R    0.01  
Cambridge_Utd        12   21   +4      75.50    11.83    16.56     3.92    32.92    11.05P    0.10R    0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United     12   20  +11      84.02    11.65    39.82    14.13    63.06    29.11P    0.03R    0.00  
Kettering            12   20   +6      78.06    12.08    24.28     5.87    42.53    15.77P    0.10R    0.01  
Salisbury            12   20   +4      67.19    12.03     5.16     0.94    13.61     3.77P    1.01R    0.02  
Histon               12   19   +4      67.02    12.45     5.94     1.26    14.75     4.27P    1.13R    0.04  
Stevenage            12   18   +0      66.28    11.75     1.90     0.64    11.54     2.44P    1.19R    0.10  
Torquay              12   18   +0      67.31    12.43     4.74     0.97    14.42     4.04P    1.20R    0.05  
Rushden_&_D'monds    10   17   +8      88.55    12.45    42.96    26.22    75.10    43.87P    0.01R    0.00  
York                 12   16   +0      65.76    11.79     5.10     0.55    10.60     2.55P    1.45R    0.05  
Weymouth             12   16   -2      58.06    11.85   -11.98     0.13     3.59     0.73P    5.68R    0.37  
Wrexham              11   14   +3      71.17    13.09    18.54     2.53    24.32     7.81P    0.98R    0.08  
Barrow               12   14   -4      55.78    12.10   -16.22     0.08     2.59     0.49P    8.84R    0.78  
Forest_Green         12   14   -5      53.71    11.72   -16.54     0.03     1.61     0.28P   11.04R    1.13  
Eastbourne_Borough   12   14   -7      52.62    11.87   -22.22     0.04     1.45     0.27P   13.70R    1.60  
Oxford_Utd           12   12   -3      53.63    11.67   -11.15     0.06     1.55     0.34P   10.51R    0.87  
Altrincham           11   12   -7      42.87    11.09   -32.78     0.01     0.15     0.02P   40.12R    7.03  
Woking               12   11   -5      44.39    11.61   -24.83     0.01     0.35     0.07P   34.38R    5.37  
Grays_Athletic       12   10   -7      46.01    11.28   -24.23     0.00     0.29     0.05P   28.34R    4.61  
Lewes                12    7  -18      27.05     9.03   -66.61     0.00     0.00     0.00    90.16R   65.20  
Northwich            12    6   -9      40.07    11.21   -33.47     0.00     0.07     0.01P   49.49R   12.65