Prediction of final league standings, promotion and relegation

Updated Thursday 21 February 2008 at 22:36:38 GMT

Premiership   (Latest match accounted for: Monday 11 February 2008, Arsenal vs Blackburn; Check up-to-date)
               -- Current --         Expected      ------------------------- Percentage chance -------------------------
Team           Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top3     Top4     Top6     Bot3     Bot1
Arsenal         26   63  +36      88.55     4.12    51.84    74.11    97.27    99.87   100.00   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Man_Utd         26   58  +36      83.98     4.23    50.55    24.15    85.82    98.72    99.84   100.00     0.00     0.00  
Chelsea         26   55  +21      77.54     4.45    30.65     1.71    16.01    82.70    95.42    99.69     0.00     0.00  
Everton         26   47  +18      67.74     4.58    25.19     0.01     0.21     6.45    32.27    77.94     0.00     0.00  
Liverpool       25   44  +23      69.09     4.70    34.48     0.01     0.65     9.91    49.22    86.89     0.00     0.00  
Aston_Villa     26   44  +14      64.48     4.33    21.08     0.00     0.03     1.03    10.13    53.21     0.00     0.00  
Man_City        26   44   +5      62.90     4.86     8.89     0.00     0.01     0.80     6.78    35.22     0.00     0.00  
Portsmouth      26   41  +10      62.63     4.69    18.25     0.00     0.00     0.48     5.66    36.76     0.00     0.00  
Blackburn       26   39   -1      56.96     4.64     1.59     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.34     4.84     0.00     0.00  
West_Ham        25   37   +7      55.86     4.89     9.04     0.00     0.00     0.03     0.33     4.69     0.00     0.00  
Tottenham       26   32   +7      51.85     4.89    12.93     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.02     0.77     0.00     0.00  
Middlesbrough   26   29  -15      39.74     4.06   -25.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     3.30R    0.00  
Newcastle       26   28  -18      38.72     4.22   -28.63     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     7.22R    0.00  
Sunderland      26   26  -19      37.52     4.41   -27.21     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    12.13R    0.00  
Bolton          26   25   -9      35.39     4.22   -18.65     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    20.36R    0.00  
Wigan           26   23  -18      34.37     4.23   -27.01     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    31.85R    0.01  
Birmingham      26   22  -13      33.98     4.62   -20.08     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    34.11R    0.01  
Reading         26   22  -23      35.30     4.70   -30.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    27.93R    0.03  
Fulham          26   19  -19      30.77     4.39   -26.44     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    63.11R    0.25  
Derby           26    9  -42      14.77     3.30   -61.07     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00   100.00R   99.70  


Championship   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2008, Southampton vs Plymouth; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot3     Bot1
Stoke            33   59  +15      80.60     5.29    20.67    28.47    54.08    95.72    64.41P    0.00     0.00  
Watford          33   59  +14      80.49     5.11    19.53    27.99    52.64    95.80    63.53P    0.00     0.00  
Bristol_City     33   58   +1      75.32     5.06     0.35     5.11    15.11    76.50    25.16P    0.00     0.00  
West_Brom        32   55  +26      80.69     5.40    36.65    33.26    58.68    96.09    70.95P    0.00     0.00  
Charlton         33   52  +10      72.49     5.15    13.97     2.01     7.09    61.18    21.52P    0.00     0.00  
Ipswich          33   51  +10      72.41     5.21    15.30     1.91     7.07    61.63    21.28P    0.00     0.00  
Plymouth         33   49  +10      69.84     5.14    14.32     0.67     2.86    41.99    14.20P    0.00R    0.00  
Burnley          32   47   +3      67.13     5.42     4.40     0.24     1.00    22.49     5.99P    0.03R    0.00  
Hull             32   47   +3      66.52     5.40     3.49     0.24     0.87    19.10     5.28P    0.03R    0.00  
Crystal_Palace   33   46   +5      65.19     5.06     6.95     0.05     0.31    12.40     3.52P    0.06R    0.00  
Cardiff          32   44   +2      64.04     5.42     3.31     0.02     0.23     9.80     2.55P    0.22R    0.00  
Wolverhampton    32   44   -4      61.77     5.28    -5.51     0.01     0.04     4.26     0.90P    0.61R    0.02  
Norwich          33   42   -9      57.28     5.04   -12.64     0.00     0.00     0.43     0.09P    4.85R    0.38  
Barnsley         32   40  -12      55.72     5.20   -17.33     0.00     0.00     0.27     0.04P    9.92R    0.97  
Blackpool        33   39   -1      56.35     5.15    -1.79     0.00     0.00     0.38     0.08P    6.45R    0.59  
Sheff_Utd        32   39   -2      58.04     5.33    -1.90     0.00     0.00     1.00     0.24P    3.85R    0.30  
QPR              32   39   -7      56.88     5.42    -9.31     0.00     0.01     0.56     0.15P    6.93R    0.93  
Southampton      33   38  -13      52.21     4.93   -19.36     0.00     0.00     0.04     0.00    25.74R    4.85  
Leicester        33   37   +2      55.67     5.08     3.32     0.00     0.00     0.20     0.08P    7.77R    1.00  
Coventry         31   36  -12      53.13     5.49   -17.28     0.00     0.00     0.11     0.02P   23.40R    4.88  
Preston          32   33   -9      48.30     5.09   -14.16     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   54.16R   16.09  
Colchester       32   32   -7      49.62     5.34    -9.99     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   41.96R   12.17  
Sheff_Wed        31   32   -7      51.01     5.60    -9.02     0.00     0.00     0.05     0.02P   33.51R    8.78  
Scunthorpe       33   31  -18      44.64     4.85   -23.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    80.51R   49.04  


League 1   (Latest match accounted for: Tuesday 19 February 2008, Brighton vs Cheltenham; Check up-to-date)
                -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team            Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top2     Top6  2+[3-6]     Bot4     Bot1
Swansea          31   67  +34      98.82     5.08    52.57    97.94    99.81   100.00    99.86P    0.00     0.00  
Doncaster        31   56  +20      82.45     5.37    29.00     1.21    47.23    97.27    60.33P    0.00     0.00  
Nottm_Forest     31   53  +23      79.87     5.44    32.11     0.48    29.21    93.23    49.51P    0.00     0.00  
Carlisle         30   52  +13      77.94     5.78    19.28     0.36    17.28    85.30    30.62P    0.00     0.00  
Tranmere         33   51   +8      69.21     4.95     8.96     0.00     0.42    28.18     5.86P    0.00     0.00  
Walsall          32   49  +11      71.71     5.21    16.29     0.00     1.43    50.23    12.53P    0.00     0.00  
Leyton_Orient    33   49   -4      64.67     4.94    -7.28     0.00     0.04     7.00     0.96P    0.00R    0.00  
Southend         32   47   +3      67.15     5.32     4.45     0.00     0.24    17.57     2.76P    0.00R    0.00  
Leeds            32   46  +23      73.67     4.98    36.25     0.01     3.83    69.07    26.63P    0.00     0.00  
Oldham           31   43   +6      68.01     5.49    12.54     0.00     0.31    24.55     5.78P    0.01R    0.00  
Swindon          31   43   +5      64.50     5.51     6.79     0.00     0.08    10.22     1.96P    0.02R    0.00  
Northampton      33   43   -1      59.18     4.93    -3.49     0.00     0.00     0.80     0.11P    0.32R    0.00  
Huddersfield     31   43  -12      57.71     5.24   -20.61     0.00     0.00     0.64     0.06P    1.19R    0.00  
Brighton         30   42   +5      63.54     5.67     4.65     0.00     0.08     7.96     1.59P    0.06R    0.00  
Yeovil           33   41  -10      55.43     4.73   -15.07     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    3.17R    0.00  
Hartlepool       32   40   +1      59.81     5.26     2.05     0.00     0.01     1.52     0.24P    0.48R    0.00  
Bristol_Rovers   29   40   +1      62.88     5.96     0.56     0.00     0.06     6.41     1.17P    0.24R    0.00  
Cheltenham       33   35  -19      46.88     4.53   -27.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    49.20R    1.00  
Crewe            32   34  -18      48.79     5.01   -24.64     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    33.34R    0.84  
Millwall         32   33  -17      47.99     5.04   -23.96     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    38.39R    1.49  
Bournemouth      33   32  -17      46.66     4.71   -23.75     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.63R    1.40  
Gillingham       31   32  -19      47.86     5.23   -27.04     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00P   41.27R    1.62  
Luton            31   24  -12      40.35     5.16   -19.14     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    85.63R   15.20  
Port_Vale        33   22  -24      34.10     4.60   -33.31     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.05R   78.44  

Adjustments:
Leeds            -15
Luton            -10


League 2   (Latest match accounted for: Saturday 16 February 2008, Bradford vs Rochdale; Check up-to-date)
                    -- Current --         Expected      -------------------- Percentage chance ---------------------
Team                Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top3     Top7  3+[4-7]     Bot2     Bot1
Milton_Keynes_Dons   32   63  +29      91.09     5.09    42.62    39.21    85.35    99.97    90.82P    0.00     0.00  
Hereford             31   61  +22      88.54     5.49    33.04    20.98    67.63    99.72    77.51P    0.00     0.00  
Darlington           31   59  +28      88.82     5.38    41.49    23.53    73.73    99.75    84.62P    0.00     0.00  
Peterborough         31   59  +25      87.29     5.40    37.12    15.80    61.57    99.58    74.38P    0.00     0.00  
Rotherham            32   54  +11      78.29     5.43    18.53     0.26     6.08    86.11    25.91P    0.00     0.00  
Wycombe              33   54   +9      72.49     5.03    10.10     0.01     0.58    49.18    10.87P    0.00     0.00  
Stockport            32   50   +7      69.93     5.42     7.89     0.00     0.29    31.30     5.71P    0.00     0.00  
Rochdale             30   50   +7      76.69     6.02    14.19     0.21     4.54    75.48    18.78P    0.00     0.00  
Morecambe            32   50   +2      69.23     5.37     2.10     0.00     0.16    24.85     4.39P    0.00     0.00  
Chesterfield         33   48  +11      68.47     5.17    15.09     0.00     0.07    23.53     5.31P    0.00     0.00  
Brentford            31   46   -5      64.30     5.56    -8.69     0.00     0.02     6.75     0.98P    0.00     0.00  
Grimsby              33   45   -6      58.92     4.80   -11.84     0.00     0.00     0.47     0.06P    0.02R    0.00  
Shrewsbury           32   40   -1      59.65     5.36    -0.50     0.00     0.00     1.33     0.24P    0.09R    0.02  
Lincoln_City         33   40   -8      54.62     4.95   -13.39     0.00     0.00     0.06     0.01P    0.81R    0.11  
Bradford             30   38   +0      58.73     5.90    -1.86     0.00     0.00     1.60     0.34P    0.22R    0.03  
Chester              32   37  -10      51.42     5.03   -18.27     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00     4.85R    1.08  
Accrington_Stanley   32   36  -24      49.65     5.06   -33.78     0.00     0.00     0.01     0.00    11.93R    3.37  
Barnet               29   35   -8      55.49     5.97   -12.00     0.00     0.00     0.31     0.06P    1.79R    0.34  
Notts_County         32   33  -12      49.11     5.16   -16.03     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.53R    3.21  
Bury                 31   32  -11      49.44     5.47   -16.11     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    11.92R    3.72  
Macclesfield         33   31  -17      46.96     5.13   -20.12     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    23.51R    8.03  
Dag_&_Red            32   31  -18      43.94     4.91   -28.38     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    47.90R   21.48  
Mansfield            30   28  -10      49.62     5.91   -10.59     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00P   12.96R    4.81  
Wrexham              29   24  -21      40.25     5.58   -30.60     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    72.46R   53.80  


Conference   (Latest match accounted for: Sunday 17 February 2008, Aldershot vs Stevenage; Check up-to-date)
                   -- Current --         Expected      ---------------- Percentage chance ----------------
Team               Pld  Pts   GD     Points  sd(pts)       GD     Top1     Top5  1+[2-5]     Bot3     Bot1
Aldershot           32   71  +25      96.36     5.26    35.28    38.26    99.37    52.31P    0.00     0.00  
Torquay             30   65  +27      97.82     5.41    47.10    57.85    99.61    68.60P    0.00     0.00  
Cambridge_Utd       31   58  +19      86.28     5.31    30.71     1.84    80.41    24.22P    0.00     0.00  
Stevenage           31   57  +25      83.28     5.59    34.02     0.71    62.49    16.50P    0.00     0.00  
Burton_Albion       31   57  +21      83.12     5.64    29.79     0.67    59.87    14.96P    0.00     0.00  
Exeter              31   55  +19      83.74     5.28    33.87     0.66    66.51    17.12P    0.00     0.00  
Forest_Green        31   51  +10      74.94     5.62    14.96     0.00    10.28     1.85P    0.00     0.00  
Salisbury           32   49   +8      69.87     5.31    10.98     0.00     1.59     0.30P    0.00     0.00  
Ebbsfleet_United    30   49   +7      74.35     5.84    12.26     0.01     8.81     1.83P    0.00     0.00  
Histon              30   47   +6      72.50     5.74    11.78     0.00     4.97     0.97P    0.00     0.00  
York                31   46   +2      65.25     5.39    -1.01     0.00     0.26     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Crawley_Town        29   45  +13      71.85     6.12    18.25     0.00     5.62     1.23P    0.00     0.00  
Oxford_Utd          32   43   -1      61.15     5.20    -2.21     0.00     0.01     0.00P    0.00     0.00  
Kidderminster       30   41   +0      61.11     5.71    -2.95     0.00     0.04     0.01P    0.00     0.00  
Grays_Athletic      29   40   -2      63.51     5.95    -1.27     0.00     0.17     0.05P    0.00     0.00  
Woking              33   40   -6      57.02     4.86    -6.72     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Rushden_&_D'monds   31   38   +2      58.46     5.53     2.20     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.00  
Halifax             29   32   -3      53.15     6.03    -6.80     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.04R    0.00  
Weymouth            29   27  -13      47.60     5.88   -17.86     0.00     0.00     0.00     0.64R    0.00  
Altrincham          32   27  -24      37.54     4.58   -41.00     0.00     0.00     0.00    18.23R    0.06  
Farsley_Celtic      30   25  -23      40.51     5.35   -34.47     0.00     0.00     0.00     8.58R    0.08  
Stafford_Rangers    29   16  -30      30.53     5.31   -44.86     0.00     0.00     0.00    78.25R    7.88  
Northwich           30   15  -35      26.26     4.71   -53.54     0.00     0.00     0.00    95.17R   25.80  
Droylsden           31   13  -47      22.81     4.39   -68.52     0.00     0.00     0.00    99.09R   66.18